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FORCE Integration with DRAFT and IDAES

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to produce multiple commodities and improve economic viability under uncertain market conditions. Technical and economic analysis of IES requires modeling of complex processes with software models having enough fidelity to capture real-world dynamics while still being capable of running using reasonable computing resources. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Recent developments for the FORCE toolset have centered on strengthening the flexibility and modularity to link with external models and other available software to enhance IES simulations. Adding versatility to the FORCE toolset improves capability resulting in better techno-economic simulation of nuclear and IES components (both in potential higher fidelity and accuracy to expected performance after deployment). It also helps leverage existing work in the IES field and improve efficiency in national code development. This report focuses on two such endeavors: integration of the Dynamic Reliability Analysis Framework Tool (DRAFT) and the Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) software packages into FORCE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

2023 FORCE Development Status Update

Technical and economic analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) using software models is a complex process requiring multiple commodity market decision analysis, optimal control, process modeling, and stochastic analysis. Many assumptions used in traditional energy analysis tools do not hold in future energy markets with significant storage and variable renewable energy sources (VRE), let alone with multiple commodity markets. Capturing these intricate elements for accurate techno-economic analysis of IES led to the development of the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) tool suite under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Energy Systems crosscutting technology program. With the aim of a full framework release in 2025, many improvements to the FORCE tool suite were developed in fiscal year 2023 (FY23). These improvements broadly fit into three focuses for development of FORCE: capability, accessibility, and reliability. Capability refers to the ability of FORCE to accurately model the technical and economic viability of various IES. Accessibility refers to ease-of-use for new and existing IES analysts to efficiently set up, analyze, and produce results using FORCE. Reliability refers to the consistency of the software, allowing consistency to analysis regardless of erstwhile changes to the software. In addition to many smaller changes, there are three major capability improvements in FORCE in FY23. In summary, FORCE developments in FY23 have moved us close to all the capability requirements for FORCE 1.0 to be delivered in FY25. Inclusion of Bayesian optimization, resilience metrics, and levelized cost analysis expand the capability, accessibility, and reliability of FORCE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Role of Biofuels and Biomass Feedstocks for Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050 - (DECARB) Decarbonizing Energy Through Collaborative Analysis of Routes and Benefits

Utilizing biomass resources, such as cellulosic biomass and waste, can greatly contribute to decarbonization efforts in the U.S. economy. The U.S. bioenergy sector includes corn ethanol production, biodiesel, renewable diesel production, and the utilization of biomass wastes for electricity generation being the primary applications. Within the electricity sector, biopower can play a crucial role as a stable low-carbon resource. Enhancing the electricity mix's diversity could enhance grid reliability. If the issues regarding hot gas cleanup can be resolved, flexible biopower resources like biomass gasification facilities could complement the integration of variable renewable energy sources due to their quick ramp-up and ramp-down times. The criticality of bioenergy deployment lies in its ability to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors, such as aviation, where alternative decarbonization options may not be viable in the short term. Moreover, bioenergy has the potential to be converted into process heating, building materials, and plastics, which are not considered in this study. A set of pathways was carefully chosen to represent viable options for converting ample herbaceous and woody cellulosic feedstocks into fuels, chemicals, and electricity in this study. In conclusion, biomass pathways provide flexibility by generating various types of bioenergy and bioproducts, including electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, biochemicals, and bioplastics. When paired with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), specific bioenergy approaches can effectively extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thus providing an effective decarbonization option for the transportation sector.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

According to the 2020 residential energy consumption survey, there are 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, and approximately 42% of these have poor or no insulation (US EIA 2020). Electrification of buildings with heat pump is one of the key strategies to achieve the goal of 90% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in buildings by 2050 (U.S. Department of Energy 2024a). Building electrification will also enable greater penetration of variable renewable energy sources. However, replacing the natural gas dominated heating system by electrical appliance will increase the electrical load in heating dominated climate. It is crucial to well-insulate the building envelope to mitigate the stress in the grid from electrification. The hydronic shell (HS) system discussed next can achieve dual objective of envelope retrofit with space heating system electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Lower Snake River Dams Contribution to Grid Services

Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Charting Hydropower's Role in the Next-Generation Grid

To build a 100% clean energy power sector, the United States is adding more energy storage and variable renewable energy sources, like solar power and wind energy, to the grid. Hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) can help with both. These technologies already play a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. power grid, and this role will become even more valuable as that grid evolves. That's why researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are analyzing how the U.S. electricity sector could invest in hydropower and PSH using new data and modeling capabilities.

HYDRO ENERGY↗

Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework: Preprint

As more variable renewable energy sources are added to the grid, the critical role of hydropower as a reliable baseline and firming resource is rapidly growing. However, the U.S hydropower fleet is not fully prepared to face modern issues such as cybersecurity threats. Hydropower accounts for 37% of U.S. utility-scale renewable electricity but is challenged by diverse infrastructure and legacy devices that predate modern security practices. While new cybersecurity solutions cannot simply be added to current hydropower generation and operation technologies, custom cybersecurity assessments can reveal system-specific threats and risk probabilities and identify mitigating enhancements.

cybersecurity valuation↗

Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control

The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.

building modeling↗

Developing Renewable Energy Applications for Water Treatment Technologies and Transmission

The need for smaller treatment facilities for more isolated or rural municipal entities and industrial water treatment facilities continues to grow. From environmental justice and energy needs in remote communities that have never been serviced by larger scale utilities to smaller onsite treatment requirements to meet discharge regulations, energy efficient treatment systems that can leverage renewable energy sources can be an important asset to owners. Climate change and population dynamics have changed the needs for distributed water treatment systems and the manner in which they function. New treatment technologies that can operate under dynamic conditions and leverage variable energy sources (e.g., renewable energy, RE) can provide substantial efficiencies and cost savings. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is embarking on research projects that will perform multi-scale studies to investigate treatment technologies on varying source water quality that can operate under unsteady state flow conditions (timing) in response to energy availability, supply, and demand. A pilot-scale system will be built to assess modularity and scaling of treatment system operating conditions and performance. Modeling will also be used to determine feasibility and integration into grid emulation platforms to understand the use and value of operation with RE. Optimization will be completed for the treatment and distribution systems to document strengths and weaknesses of using RE power sources. Results of this effort will advance dynamic water treatment understanding under variable conditions and integration of RE sources to power these systems. This will lead to further decarbonization of municipal and private treatment facilities while supporting a paradigm shift in water treatment process operation and system design to achieve net-zero goals and move toward energy-sensitive resilient water treatment systems.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamic Economic Dispatch Considering Transmission–Distribution Coordination and Automatic Regulation Effect

With the rapid increase of renewable energy sources, the variability and uncertainty in power systems are significantly increased, and the power system operation is facing more and more challenges. In the traditional dynamic economic dispatch (DED) of transmission systems, the frequency and voltage regulation effects are not actively utilized. In addition, the transmission systems and distribution systems are optimized separately; the transmission–distribution coordination effect is not considered. In this article, a new DED is proposed. The optimal scheduling results are obtained by making a balance between operating cost and reliability cost. Both the automatic regulation effect and transmission–distribution coordination effect are explored and exploited in terms of the equivalent reserve, which can reduce the reserve provided by generating units, and can further enhance the security and economics of power system operation. The validity and effectiveness of the proposed model are illustrated by case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydropower Value Drivers

Conventional hydro resources generate the majority of their value by providing energy under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing ancillary services and capacity increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. Pumped storage hydropower resources generate the majority of their value by providing capacity under most conditions, but the relative fraction of value generated by providing energy increases with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs. The total value of conventional hydropower generally decreases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs; this is largely due to the associated decrease in average energy prices. The total value of pumped storage generally increases in systems with increasing penetration of resources with zero fuel costs, largely due to opportunities to operate in pumping mode when energy prices are low or even negative. Energy storage representation must be enhanced to ensure that models accurately capture system value streams for these resources. Current power system models have a limited ability to capture the price dynamics of ancillary services, and it is still challenging to assess the role and magnitude of ancillary service value streams in future systems. Power systems are currently in a state of rapid and dramatic evolution due to a number of different factors, including the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This evolution will change the way power systems are fundamentally planned and operated. Some of these changes may be incremental, while others may be more significant, but the result will likely be parallel evolution in the definition and requirement of different grid services and therefore a subsequent shift in their relative values. This report presents a framework developed to identify such system value drivers and quantify their relative impact on several different value streams, with a specific focus on implications for conventional hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) resources. This value drivers framework (VDF) encompasses five core analytical steps: 1. Identify potential drivers and develop scenarios, 2. Execute production cost models, 3. Calibrate prices, 4. Optimize hydropower operations, and 5. Quantify value drivers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production and Compressed Air Energy Storage from Variable Renewable Energy

Examines the performance and cost of pairing variable renewable energy (VRE) sources with compressed air energy storage and hydrogen production through PEM electrolysis. Sensitivities were performed on H2 cost, PEM electrolyzer capital cost, and hydrogen cavern capital cost. The analysis shows that the cost of VRE has the most impact on the overall cost results.

Teel, Troy↗

System Analysis of an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) - Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Hybrid Cycle

The variability of renewable energy sources poses challenges for reliable grid operation. Conventional thermal power sources, though reliable, often lack operational flexibility. Hybrid energy systems that integrate Solid Oxide Fuel cells (SOFC) with Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) offer a promising solution by achieving relatively higher efficiency and grid-following capability. This study investigates performance of a 100-kW pressurized SOFC-ICE hybrid cycle. In this configuration, unutilized SOFC fuel is used to drive the engine, with a turbocharger providing air supply and an external reformer generating syngas. System components were numerically modeled using MATLAB/SIMULINK for the SOFC and reformer, and EBSILON® for the ICE and balance of plant. Parametric studies varied fuel utilization (70-90%), reformer temperature (600 – 1000K), anode off-gas recirculation (0 – 70%), and current density (0.2 – 0.55 A/cm2). Results show that the SOFC and ICE operate as thermally independent topping and bottoming cycles, achieving peak efficiency of 62% under optimized conditions.

hybrid↗

FORCE Development Status Update: Vertical Integration and Benchmarking of System Dynamics

Recent efforts to establish effective models for grid energy analysis, especially given the increase in variable renewable energy (VRE) sources and the economic challenges faced by traditional nuclear energy, have generated new technological considerations. One effort to improve the economic viability of nuclear power involves investigating integrated energy systems (IES) which include secondary energy systems that introduce flexibility and secondary market possibilities to existing and perceived future nuclear energy generation technologies. To analyze the technical and economic potential of IES, the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite was developed through a collaboration among national laboratories. Within the FORCE tool suite, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) provides algorithms for analyzing the long-term viability of potential IES technologies, while HYBRID provides algorithms and models to achieve high-resolution analysis of coupling physics over a short time period. Continued maturing of the FORCE tool suite requires further interconnections between the various tools in the suite in order to ensure consistent analysis. Analyses performed by applying HYBRID to transient process modeling should be easily harvestable as inputs to HERON analyses. The first item in this status update is a demonstration of an automated data pipeline for loading data from HYBRID into HERON analyses. Application of HYBRID results to HERON, as part of using the FORCE tool suite, relies on robust modeling assumptions for the various models included in HYBRID. The second result of this status update is the benchmarking and validation of cost and operational data, with a particular focus on natural gas energy generators. These generators are benchmarked with a focus on contrasting them with proposed thermal energy storage (TES) technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An assessment of existing barriers to market adoption of thermal energy storage in buildings based on interviews with stakeholders

The United States administration recently established a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by half below 2005 levels by 2030 and becoming a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. The transition to renewable energy sources may be significantly aided by energy storage. Energy storage could smooth the delivery of variable or intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind, hydro, and sun by storing excess renewable energy when it’s available and delivering it back when renewable energy production is low. Thermal energy storage (TES) is a way that stores thermal energy by heating or cooling a storage medium, which is then used for space heating and cooling, industrial processes, or power generation purposes later. This TES operation could lessen the demand for electricity in both the winter's and the summer's peak hours of electricity. While there are various studies that focus on the advancements and successes of TES technology, less attention is placed on its market adoption. Therefore, the current study undertakes survey-based interview research to understand the existing market barriers hindering TES application in buildings. A series of interviews were performed in this study with individuals from various backgrounds, ranging from homeowners to market specialists who work for TES manufacturers and utility companies. According to the responses obtained during the interviews, they strongly believe that TES has a high potential to contribute to the nation's grid stability and decarbonization goals, however, there are several barriers that prevent homeowners and heat pump manufacturers from investing in TES applications. The current study divided the responses from various background groups into categories to better understand the current challenges for TES applications in buildings. These responses range from payback concerns from homeowners to the need to develop a new metric to represent the benefits of TES from the heat pump and TES manufacturers. The findings from this study can be used by policymakers, utility companies, and manufacturers to better understand present obstacles and develop strategies to overcome them.

Prem Anand Jayaprabha, Jyothis Anand↗

Modifications to Solar Titan-130 Combustion Systems for Efficient, High Turndown Operation

The project team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) investigated methods to allow higher efficiency part-load operation of a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine. The objective was to develop a low-emission combustion system capable of sustaining combustion and avoiding lean blowout during high turndown operation, which would allow the gas turbine to operate as efficiently as possible at part load. Currently, electric utility markets are beginning to experience substantial increases in renewable energy generation. Some of these renewable energy sources have highly variable output in an uncontrolled manner. In order to maintain grid stability, there is a need for power plants to ramp up power to the grid rapidly to make up for drops in renewable generation. This is often termed spinning reserve, but the size of this reserve may need to increase as renewable penetration into the electric utility market increases. Small combined heat and power (CHP) power plants provide a promising option for meeting this spinning reserve requirement. In order to operate in spinning reserve while still meeting the heat requirements for the CHP, the gas turbine needs to operate efficiently at very low loads. Efficient, high turndown operations in this engine are limited by the lean flammability limit of the premixed combustion system. This project sought enhance the lean operability range of the Titan 130 combustor. First, the project team participated in a brainstorming activity and ultimately selected two concepts to explore: fuel augmentation with hydrogen (H2) to improve the stability at lean operating conditions and modifications to the fuel nozzle to improve the emissions performance at lean operating conditions. Analytical and laboratory investigations were accomplished by UCI to investigate the efficacy of H2 addition at improving lean blow out (LBO) limits and the resulting emissions. These investigations used a variety of chemical reactor network (CRN) and CFD models, validated against laboratory data, to model the impact of H 2 and inform the experimental efforts accomplished by SwRI and Solar. Ultimately, both the CRN and CFD models yielded generally good agreement with the experimental data below a particular temperature threshold. Atmospheric tests of a full-scale T130 annular combustor were performed at SwRI facilities in San Antonio, Texas, to investigate the use of H 2 addition. For these tests, the T130 combustion system remained largely unchanged; minor modifications were performed to the fuel ducting to allow for the safe use of H 2 . The test ultimately demonstrated that the addition of H 2 to the fuel mixture significantly increased the AFR ratio at which the combustor could operate. This improvement to the LBO limit should allow for less use of compressor bleed and less throttling needed by the inlet guide vanes (IGV). This in turn could result in more efficient operation of the gas turbine at lower load points. The second modification explored in this work was a direct modification to the T130 injector. The project team hypothesized that modifications to the pilot of the T130 injector could provide lower emissions at high turn-down operations. These modifications were manufactured and explored by the team at Solar. High pressure rig tests, originally slated to occur at SwRI, were ultimately accomplished by Solar to maintain overall project budget and mitigate cost growth attributable to supply chain issues and inflation. The pressurized rig tests ultimately showed that the SwRI Project No. 18.24153 - DE-EE0008415 Page 2 Final Technical Report January 24, 2024 modifications did not significantly alter the performance of the combustion system at the high turn-down conditions; both the modified injectors and the baseline configuration exhibited elevated emissions comparted to the full-load operating condition. A final set of studies performed by EPRI investigated the benefit-cost of flexible CHP as well as a grid interconnection study for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid. These studies considered: traditional CHP with no spinning reserve available for on-demand grid support, 50% flexible CHP where 50% of the machine’s capacity is consumed by on-site baseload operations while providing an additional 50% capacity for on-demand grid support, and 70% flexible CHP where 70% of capacity is consumed on-site by baseload operations and 30% is available for on-demand grid support. In all cases, the analyses showed a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than unity implying a positive net present value for all configurations. However, the traditional CHP showed the most economic benefit. These results are sensitive to several factors, many of which are not fully known and may vary over time. Thus site owners must be convinced that taking up the increased costs and risks from flexible CHP would be worth implementing. As the grid in California and across the country transition to incorporate larger renewable energy generation, flexible CHP can provide much needed operating reserves and dispatchability. Alternative fuel options, such as hydrogen blending and biofuels, may also lower carbon intensities of CHP. Flexible CHP should be examined in the evolving market to understand innovative business models, changes market rules and services, and new technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗