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NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 24: A general approach to measuring the value of aerospace information products and services

This paper discusses the various approaches to measuring the value of information, first defining the meanings of information, economics of information, and value. It concludes that no general model of measuring the value of information is possible and that the usual approaches, such as cost/benefit equations, have very limited applications. It also concludes that in specific contexts with given goals for newly developed products and services or newly acquired information there is a basis for its objective valuation. The axioms and inputs for such a model are described and directions for further verification and analysis are proposed.

Brinberg, Herbert R.

Cognition and procedure representational requirements for predictive human performance models

Models and modeling environments for human performance are becoming significant contributors to early system design and analysis procedures. Issues of levels of automation, physical environment, informational environment, and manning requirements are being addressed by such man/machine analysis systems. The research reported here investigates the close interaction between models of human cognition and models that described procedural performance. We describe a methodology for the decomposition of aircrew procedures that supports interaction with models of cognition on the basis of procedures observed; that serves to identify cockpit/avionics information sources and crew information requirements; and that provides the structure to support methods for function allocation among crew and aiding systems. Our approach is to develop an object-oriented, modular, executable software representation of the aircrew, the aircraft, and the procedures necessary to satisfy flight-phase goals. We then encode in a time-based language, taxonomies of the conceptual, relational, and procedural constraints among the cockpit avionics and control system and the aircrew. We have designed and implemented a goals/procedures hierarchic representation sufficient to describe procedural flow in the cockpit. We then execute the procedural representation in simulation software and calculate the values of the flight instruments, aircraft state variables and crew resources using the constraints available from the relationship taxonomies. The system provides a flexible, extensible, manipulative and executable representation of aircrew and procedures that is generally applicable to crew/procedure task-analysis. The representation supports developed methods of intent inference, and is extensible to include issues of information requirements and functional allocation. We are attempting to link the procedural representation to models of cognitive functions to establish several intent inference methods including procedural backtracking with concurrent search, temporal reasoning, and constraint checking for partial ordering of procedures. Finally, the representation is being linked to models of human decision making processes that include heuristic, propositional and prescriptive judgement models that are sensitive to the procedural content in which the valuative functions are being performed.

Corker, K.

Computational and Experimental Efforts in Gravity Probe B Microthruster Analysis

Gravity Probe B, an experiment to test the theory of relativity, will be launched near the turn of the millennium. Due to the precise pointing requirements need to successfully carry out this experiment, the satellite will use sixteen proportionally controlled microthrusters as a main component of the attitude control system. These microthrusters use the helium boil-off from the on-board dewar as propellant. Marshall Space Flight Center, verified the design of the thruster flow path by both computational and experimental methods. The flow performance of the thruster has been adequately characterized. Graphs show specific impulse, thrust coefficient, discharge coefficient, and mass flow rate trends. Value was added to the program through gained confidence in the design of the thruster and through valuation of some design trade-offs.

Droege, Alan

Parallelization of Rocket Engine Simulator Software (P.R.E.S.S.)

Parallelization of Rocket Engine System Software (PRESS) project is part of a collaborative effort with Southern University at Baton Rouge (SUBR), University of West Florida (UWF), and Jackson State University (JSU). The project has started on October 19, 1995, and after a three-year period corresponding to project phases and fiscal-year funding by NASA Lewis Research Center (now Glenn Research Center), has ended on October 18, 1998. The one-year no-cost extension period was granted on June 7, 1998, until October 19, 1999. The aim of this one year no-cost extension period was to carry out further research to complete the work and lay the groundwork for subsequent research in the area of aerospace engine design optimization software tools. The previous progress for the research has been reported in great detail in respective interim and final research progress reports, seven of them, in all. While the purpose of this report is to be a final summary and an valuative view of the entire work since the first year funding, the following is a quick recap of the most important sections of the interim report dated April 30, 1999.

Cezzar, Ruknet

Citrus Inventory

An aerial color infrared (CIR) mapping system developed by Kennedy Space Center enables Florida's Charlotte County to accurately appraise its citrus groves while reducing appraisal costs. The technology was further advanced by development of a dual video system making it possible to simultaneously view images of the same area and detect changes. An image analysis system automatically surveys and photo interprets grove images as well as automatically counts trees and reports totals. The system, which saves both time and money, has potential beyond citrus grove valuation.

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Citrus Inventory

Florida's Charlotte County Property Appraiser is using an aerial color infrared mapping system for inventorying citrus trees for valuation purposes. The ACIR system has significantly reduced the time and manpower required for appraisal. Aerial photographs are taken and interpreted by a video system which makes it possible to detect changes from previous years. Potential problems can be identified. KSC's TU Office has awarded a contract to the Citrus Research and Education Center to adapt a prototype system which would automatically count trees and report totals.

Source record

Test of the Equivalence Principle in an Einstein Elevator

The scientific goal of the experiment is to test the equality of gravitational and inertial mass (i.e., to test the Principle of Equivalence) by measuring the independence of the rate of fall of bodies from their compositions. The measurement is accomplished by measuring the relative displacement (or equivalently acceleration) of two falling bodies of different materials which are the proof masses of a differential accelerometer spinning about an horizontal axis to modulate a possible violation signal. A non-zero differential acceleration appearing at the signal frequency will indicate a violation of the Equivalence Principle. The goal of the experiment is to measure the Eotvos ratio og/g (differential acceleration/common acceleration) with a targeted accuracy that is about two orders of magnitude better than the state of the art (presently at several parts in 10(exp 13). The analyses carried out during this first grant year have focused on: (1) evaluation of possible shapes for the proof masses to meet the requirements on the higher-order mass moment disturbances generated by the falling capsule; (2) dynamics of the instrument package and differential acceleration measurement in the presence of errors and imperfections; (3) computation of the inertia characteristic of the instrument package that enable a separation of the signal from the dynamics-related noise; (4) a revised thermal analysis of the instrument package in light of the new conceptual design of the cryostat; (5) the development of a dynamic and control model of the capsule attached to the gondola and balloon to define the requirements for the leveling mechanism (6) a conceptual design of the leveling mechanism that keeps the capsule aligned before release from the balloon; and (7) a new conceptual design of the customized cryostat and a preliminary valuation of its cost. The project also involves an international cooperation with the Institute of Space Physics (IFSI) in Rome, Italy. The group at IFSI is in charge of prototyping the differential accelerometer and carrying out precursor laboratory measurements. During this grant year, our partners analyzed and then designed a new prototype of differential accelerometer that has several characteristics in common with the flight accelerometer at this point of the instrument development. The highlights of these activities are documented in a section of this report.

Shapiro, Irwin I.

Measuring Questions: Relevance and its Relation to Entropy

The Boolean lattice of logical statements induces the free distributive lattice of questions. Inclusion on this lattice is based on whether one question answers another. Generalizing the zeta function of the question lattice leads to a valuation called relevance or bearing, which is a measure of the degree to which one question answers another. Richard Cox conjectured that this degree can be expressed as a generalized entropy. With the assistance of yet another important result from Janos Acz6l, I show that this is indeed the case; and that the resulting inquiry calculus is a natural generalization of information theory. This approach provides a new perspective of the Principle of Maximum Entropy.

Knuth, Kevin H.

Regulation in the Air: Price and Frequency Cap

Despite deregulation on the air-transportation markets, many connections are still operated by a single operator. Regulation is thus a central issue in this industry. There is however a great concern for the (possibly negative) consequences of price regulation on the quality of services. We argue that both aspects should be considered jointly and propose a mechanism that allow to decentralize the optimal structure of services in this industry. The regulatory procedure is robust to the introduction of heterogeneity in the travellers' valuation of the connections' frequency.

deVillemeur, Etienne Billette

A Real-Options Approach for NASA Strategic Technology Selection

In this paper, we examine the use of real options valuation in the context of prioritizing advanced technologies for NASA funding. Further, we offer a set of computational procedures that quantifies the option value of each technology.

real options technology selection option pricing

Automated Target Planning for FUSE Using the SOVA Algorithm

The SOVA algorithm was originally developed under the Resilient Systems and Operations Project of the Engineering for Complex Systems Program from NASA s Aerospace Technology Enterprise as a conceptual framework to support real-time autonomous system mission and contingency management. The algorithm and its software implementation were formulated for generic application to autonomous flight vehicle systems, and its efficacy was demonstrated by simulation within the problem domain of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle autonomous flight management. The approach itself is based upon the precept that autonomous decision making for a very complex system can be made tractable by distillation of the system state to a manageable set of strategic objectives (e.g. maintain power margin, maintain mission timeline, and et cetera), which if attended to, will result in a favorable outcome. From any given starting point, the attainability of the end-states resulting from a set of candidate decisions is assessed by propagating a system model forward in time while qualitatively mapping simulated states into margins on strategic objectives using fuzzy inference systems. The expected return value of each candidate decision is evaluated as the product of the assigned value of the end-state with the assessed attainability of the end-state. The candidate decision yielding the highest expected return value is selected for implementation; thus, the approach provides a software framework for intelligent autonomous risk management. The name adopted for the technique incorporates its essential elements: Strategic Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA). Maximum value of the approach is realized for systems where human intervention is unavailable in the timeframe within which critical control decisions must be made. The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite, launched in 1999, has been collecting science data for eight years.[1] At its beginning of life, FUSE had six gyros in two IRUs and four reaction wheels. Over time through various failures, the satellite has been left with one reaction wheel on the vehicle skew axis and two gyros. To remain operational, a control scheme has been implemented using the magnetic torque rods and the remaining momentum wheel.[2] As a consequence, there are attitude regions where there is insufficient torque authority to overcome environmental disturbances (e.g. gravity gradient torques). The situation is further complicated by the fact that these attitude regions shift inertially with time as the spacecraft moves through earth s magnetic field during the course of its orbit. Under these conditions, the burden of planning targets and target-to-target slew maneuvers has increased significantly since the beginning of the mission.[3] Individual targets must be selected so that the magnetic field remains roughly aligned with the skew wheel axis to provide enough control authority to the other two orthogonal axes. If the field moves too far away from the skew axis, the lack of control authority allows environmental torques to pull the satellite away from the target and can potentially cause it to tumble. Slew maneuver planning must factor the stability of targets at the beginning and end, and the torque authority at all points along the slew. Due to the time varying magnetic field geometry relative to any two inertial targets, small modifications in slew maneuver timing can make large differences in the achievability of a maneuver.

Heatwole, Scott

The Mission Planning Lab: A Visualization and Analysis Tool

Simulation and visualization are powerful decision making tools that are time-saving and cost-effective. Space missions pose testing and e valuation challenges that can be overcome through modeling, simulatio n, and visualization of mission parameters. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration?s (NASA) Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) capi talizes on the benefits of modeling, simulation, and visualization to ols through a project initiative called The Mission Planning Lab (MPL ).

Daugherty, Sarah C.

Planning the FUSE Mission Using the SOVA Algorithm

Three documents discuss the Sustainable Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA) algorithm and software as used to plan tasks (principally, scientific observations and associated maneuvers) for the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite. SOVA is a means of managing risk in a complex system, based on a concept of computing the expected return value of a candidate ordered set of tasks as a product of pre-assigned task values and assessments of attainability made against qualitatively defined strategic objectives. For the FUSE mission, SOVA autonomously assembles a week-long schedule of target observations and associated maneuvers so as to maximize the expected scientific return value while keeping the satellite stable, managing the angular momentum of spacecraft attitude- control reaction wheels, and striving for other strategic objectives. A six-degree-of-freedom model of the spacecraft is used in simulating the tasks, and the attainability of a task is calculated at each step by use of strategic objectives as defined by use of fuzzy inference systems. SOVA utilizes a variant of a graph-search algorithm known as the A* search algorithm to assemble the tasks into a week-long target schedule, using the expected scientific return value to guide the search.

Lanzi, James

Design Curve Generation for 3D SiC Fiber Architecture

The design tool provides design curves that allow a simple and quick way to examine multiple factors that can influence the processing and key properties of the preforms and their final SiC-reinforced ceramic composites without over obligating financial capital for the fabricating of materials. Tool predictions for process and fiber fraction properties have been validated for a HNS 3D preform.The virtualization aspect of the tool will be used to provide a quick generation of solid models with actual fiber paths for finite element evaluation to predict mechanical and thermal properties of proposed composites as well as mechanical displacement behavior due to creep and stress relaxation to study load sharing characteristic between constitutes for better performance.Tool predictions for the fiber controlled properties of the SiCSiC CMC fabricated from the HNS preforms will be valuated and up-graded from the measurements on these CMC

matrix materials

Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

Diagnostics

Achieving Sustainability Goals for Urban Coasts in the US Northeast: Research Needs and Challenges

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.

urban coasts

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

Foreman, Veronica L.