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Unsupervised Segmentation Of Polarimetric SAR Data

Method of unsupervised segmentation of polarimetric synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) image data into classes involves selection of classes on basis of multidimensional fuzzy clustering of logarithms of parameters of polarimetric covariance matrix. Data in each class represent parts of image wherein polarimetric SAR backscattering characteristics of terrain regarded as homogeneous. Desirable to have each class represent type of terrain, sea ice, or ocean surface distinguishable from other types via backscattering characteristics. Unsupervised classification does not require training areas, is nearly automated computerized process, and provides nonsubjective selection of image classes naturally well separated by radar.

Rignot, Eric J.↗

An ICA-Based HVAC Load Disaggregation Method Using Smart Meter Data

This paper presents an independent component analysis (ICA) based unsupervised-learning method for heat, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load disaggregation using row-resolution (i.e., 15 minutes) smart meter data. We first demonstrate that the electricity consumption profiles on mild-temperature days can be used to approximate the base load on hot days. A residual load profile can then be calculated by subtracting the mild-day load profile from the hot-day load profile. The residual load profiles are processed using ICA for HVAC load extraction. An optimization-based algorithm is proposed for post-adjustment of the ICA results, considering two bounding factors for enhancing the robustness of the ICA algorithm. First, we use the hourly HVAC energy bounds computed from the relationship between HVAC load and temperature to remove unrealistic HVAC load spikes. Second, we exploit the dependency between the daily nocturnal and diurnal loads extracted from historical meter data to smooth the base load profile. Pecan Street data with sub-metered HVAC data were used to test and verify the proposed methods. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method is computationally efficient and robust across multiple customers.

Kim, Hyeonjin↗

Unsupervised segmentation of polarimetric SAR data using the covariance matrix

A method for unsupervised segmentation of polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data into classes of homogeneous microwave polarimetric backscatter characteristics is presented. Classes of polarimetric backscatter are selected on the basis of a multidimensional fuzzy clustering of the logarithm of the parameters composing the polarimetric covariance matrix. The clustering procedure uses both polarimetric amplitude and phase information, is adapted to the presence of image speckle, and does not require an arbitrary weighting of the different polarimetric channels; it also provides a partitioning of each data sample used for clustering into multiple clusters. Given the classes of polarimetric backscatter, the entire image is classified using a maximum a posteriori polarimetric classifier. Four-look polarimetric SAR complex data of lava flows and of sea ice acquired by the NASA/JPL airborne polarimetric radar (AIRSAR) are segmented using this technique. The results are discussed and compared with those obtained using supervised techniques.

Rignot, Eric J. M.↗

Data Mining for Anomaly Detection

The Vehicle Integrated Prognostics Reasoner (VIPR) program describes methods for enhanced diagnostics as well as a prognostic extension to current state of art Aircraft Diagnostic and Maintenance System (ADMS). VIPR introduced a new anomaly detection function for discovering previously undetected and undocumented situations, where there are clear deviations from nominal behavior. Once a baseline (nominal model of operations) is established, the detection and analysis is split between on-aircraft outlier generation and off-aircraft expert analysis to characterize and classify events that may not have been anticipated by individual system providers. Offline expert analysis is supported by data curation and data mining algorithms that can be applied in the contexts of supervised learning methods and unsupervised learning. In this report, we discuss efficient methods to implement the Kolmogorov complexity measure using compression algorithms, and run a systematic empirical analysis to determine the best compression measure. Our experiments established that the combination of the DZIP compression algorithm and CiDM distance measure provides the best results for capturing relevant properties of time series data encountered in aircraft operations. This combination was used as the basis for developing an unsupervised learning algorithm to define "nominal" flight segments using historical flight segments.

Biswas, Gautam↗

A Fast Implementation of the ISOCLUS Algorithm

Unsupervised clustering is a fundamental tool in numerous image processing and remote sensing applications. For example, unsupervised clustering is often used to obtain vegetation maps of an area of interest. This approach is useful when reliable training data are either scarce or expensive, and when relatively little a priori information about the data is available. Unsupervised clustering methods play a significant role in the pursuit of unsupervised classification. One of the most popular and widely used clustering schemes for remote sensing applications is the ISOCLUS algorithm, which is based on the ISODATA method. The algorithm is given a set of n data points (or samples) in d-dimensional space, an integer k indicating the initial number of clusters, and a number of additional parameters. The general goal is to compute a set of cluster centers in d-space. Although there is no specific optimization criterion, the algorithm is similar in spirit to the well known k-means clustering method in which the objective is to minimize the average squared distance of each point to its nearest center, called the average distortion. One significant feature of ISOCLUS over k-means is that clusters may be merged or split, and so the final number of clusters may be different from the number k supplied as part of the input. This algorithm will be described in later in this paper. The ISOCLUS algorithm can run very slowly, particularly on large data sets. Given its wide use in remote sensing, its efficient computation is an important goal. We have developed a fast implementation of the ISOCLUS algorithm. Our improvement is based on a recent acceleration to the k-means algorithm, the filtering algorithm, by Kanungo et al.. They showed that, by storing the data in a kd-tree, it was possible to significantly reduce the running time of k-means. We have adapted this method for the ISOCLUS algorithm. For technical reasons, which are explained later, it is necessary to make a minor modification to the ISOCLUS specification. We provide empirical evidence, on both synthetic and Landsat image data sets, that our algorithm's performance is essentially the same as that of ISOCLUS, but with significantly lower running times. We show that our algorithm runs from 3 to 30 times faster than a straightforward implementation of ISOCLUS. Our adaptation of the filtering algorithm involves the efficient computation of a number of cluster statistics that are needed for ISOCLUS, but not for k-means.

Memarsadeghi, Nargess↗

Presentation: Sensor Anomaly Detection for Nuclear Reactor Systems Utilizing Linear Regression and K-Means Unsupervised Machine Learning: An overview of methods and results

This presentation is a culmination of work which has occurred over the course of a 10-week internship. Anomaly detection methods must be both robust enough to detect subtle anomalies yet not so sensitive to report false positives, which would result significant loss of revenue. Methods currently being developed for autonomous systems are often pursuing a Digital Twin method, which will look at the entire system and model it as a whole. This presentation, however, focuses less on direct application to an NPP, rather acting as a proof of concept for the methods developed. For the project, we look to develop methods to analyze steady-state data and report anomalies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Sparse Superpixel Unmixing for Hyperspectral Image Analysis

Software was developed that automatically detects minerals that are present in each pixel of a hyperspectral image. An algorithm based on sparse spectral unmixing with Bayesian Positive Source Separation is used to produce mineral abundance maps from hyperspectral images. A superpixel segmentation strategy enables efficient unmixing in an interactive session. The algorithm computes statistically likely combinations of constituents based on a set of possible constituent minerals whose abundances are uncertain. A library of source spectra from laboratory experiments or previous remote observations is used. A superpixel segmentation strategy improves analysis time by orders of magnitude, permitting incorporation into an interactive user session (see figure). Mineralogical search strategies can be categorized as supervised or unsupervised. Supervised methods use a detection function, developed on previous data by hand or statistical techniques, to identify one or more specific target signals. Purely unsupervised results are not always physically meaningful, and may ignore subtle or localized mineralogy since they aim to minimize reconstruction error over the entire image. This algorithm offers advantages of both methods, providing meaningful physical interpretations and sensitivity to subtle or unexpected minerals.

Castano, Rebecca↗

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A Covid-19 Study

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.

ASRS↗

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A COVID-19 Study

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.

ASRS↗

A robust approach to 3D neuron shape representation for quantification and classification

We consider the problem of finding an accurate representation of neuron shapes, extracting sub-cellular features, and classifying neurons based on neuron shapes. In neuroscience research, the skeleton representation is often used as a compact and abstract representation of neuron shapes. However, existing methods are limited to getting and analyzing “curve” skeletons which can only be applied for tubular shapes. This paper presents a 3D neuron morphology analysis method for more general and complex neuron shapes. First, we introduce the concept of skeleton mesh to represent general neuron shapes and propose a novel method for computing mesh representations from 3D surface point clouds. A skeleton graph is then obtained from skeleton mesh and is used to extract sub-cellular features. Finally, an unsupervised learning method is used to embed the skeleton graph for neuron classification. Extensive experiment results are provided and demonstrate the robustness of our method to analyze neuron morphology.

3D neuron morphology↗

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗

Automated Classification of Transient Contamination in Stationary Acoustic Data

An automated procedure for the classification of transient contamination of stationary acoustic data is proposed and analyzed. The procedure requires the assumption that the stationary acoustic data of interest can be modeled as a band-limited, Gaussian random process. It also requires that the transient contamination be of higher variance than the acoustic data of interest. When these assumptions are satisfied, it is a blind separation procedure, aside from the initial input specifying how to subdivide the time series of interest. No a priori threshold criterion is required. Simulation results show that for a sufficient number of blocks, the method performs well, as long as the occasional false positive or false negative is acceptable. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated with an application to experimental wind tunnel acoustic test data which are contaminated by hydrodynamic gusts.

binary classification↗

Cluster Method Analysis of K. S. C. Image

Information obtained from satellite-based systems has moved to the forefront as a method in the identification of many land cover types. Identification of different land features through remote sensing is an effective tool for regional and global assessment of geometric characteristics. Classification data acquired from remote sensing images have a wide variety of applications. In particular, analysis of remote sensing images have special applications in the classification of various types of vegetation. Results obtained from classification studies of a particular area or region serve towards a greater understanding of what parameters (ecological, temporal, etc.) affect the region being analyzed. In this paper, we make a distinction between both types of classification approaches although, focus is given to the unsupervised classification method using 1987 Thematic Mapped (TM) images of Kennedy Space Center.

Rodriguez, Joe, Jr.↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Convolutional Variational Autoencoder-based Unsupervised Learning for Power Systems Faults

Classification of power system event data is a growing need, particularly where non-protective relaying-based sensors are used to monitor grid performance. Given the high burden of obtaining event data with appropriate labeling, an unsupervised approach is highly valuable. This approach enables using event data without labeling, which is far easier to obtain. This paper presents an unsupervised learning method to classify and label transients observed in the distribution grid. A Convolutional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) was developed for this purpose. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using the transient data generated from the simulations. The simulation data is used to train the CVAE that identifies different faults as different clusters in the latent space. The clusters are then used as the foundation model to categorize the real-world data.

Alam, Maksudul↗

GraphEM

An unsupervised segmentation method for structural analysis of Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) images

Pope, Jenna↗

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico

Geothermal energy is considered an essential renewable resource to generate flexible electricity. Geothermal resource assessments conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey showed that the southwestern basins in the U.S. have a significant geothermal potential for meeting domestic electricity demand. Within these southwestern basins, play fairway analysis (PFA), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office, identified that the Tularosa Basin in New Mexico has significant geothermal potential. This short communication paper presents a machine learning (ML) methodology for curating and analyzing the PFA data from the DOE’s geothermal data repository. The proposed approach to identify potential geothermal sites in the Tularosa Basin is based on an unsupervised ML method called non-negative matrix factorization with custom k-means clustering. This methodology is available in our open-source ML framework, GeoThermalCloud (GTC). Using this GTC framework, we discover prospective geothermal locations and find key parameters defining these prospects. Our ML analysis found that these prospects are consistent with the existing Tularosa Basin’s PFA studies. This instills confidence in our GTC framework to accelerate geothermal exploration and resource development, which is generally time-consuming.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗