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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Best Practices for Reduction of Uncertainty in CFD Results

This paper describes a proposed best-practices system that will present expert knowledge in the use of CFD. The best-practices system will include specific guidelines to assist the user in problem definition, input preparation, grid generation, code selection, parameter specification, and results interpretation. The goal of the system is to assist all CFD users in obtaining high quality CFD solutions with reduced uncertainty and at lower cost for a wide range of flow problems. The best-practices system will be implemented as a software product which includes an expert system made up of knowledge databases of expert information with specific guidelines for individual codes and algorithms. The process of acquiring expert knowledge is discussed, and help from the CFD community is solicited. Benefits and challenges associated with this project are examined.

Mendenhall, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall Modeled Large Eddy Simulations for NASA’s Jet Noise Consensus Database of Single-Flow, Round, Convergent Jets

A campaign of wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (WMLES) using structured curvilinear overlapping grids has been performed with the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics(LAVA) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to predict jet noise for single-stream axisymmetric round jets. The simulations address the new Prediction Uncertainty Reduction(PUR) technical challenge within the context of NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology(CST) project. The goal of PUR is to quantify and reduce uncertainties from scale-resolving simulations to assess noise characteristics of next generation quiet supersonic commercial jets during takeoff and landing conditions where the noise from the exhaust jet dominates. The focus of this effort is to generate a simulation database for single-stream axisymmetric round nozzles at several conditions both for static (no ambient co-flow), which is the focus of this article, and in-flight (flight stream co-flow) conditions, which are beyond the current scope. Nine different flow conditions ranging in jet exit Mach number from 0.38 to 1.0 with nozzle temperature ratios (NTR) from 0.84 to 2.7 have been conducted. Details of the structured overset grids, numerical discretization and wall-model are provided. Near-field comparisons to PIV data show great agreement for both velocity and normal stresses, however a systematic TKE overshoot at the nozzle exit is seen in the lip line shear-layer. A permeable Ffowcs Williams Hawkings (FWH) surface, enclosing the jet, is used to predict far-field noise from the simulated flow-field. Comparison of CFD predictions to microphone array measurements demonstrate excellent agreement within the resolved frequency range. A systematic under-prediction of far-aft observer angles larger than 150 degrees has been observed across all simulations. We achieved a cost reduction of an order of magnitude for these WMLES compared to an earlier study of this configuration due to algorithmic and software improvements. The accuracy of the results and short turnaround time demonstrate that WMLES within the LAVA framework is a cost-effective approach for jet noise predictions that could soon be incorporated into the design cycle of jet noise reduction technologies.

CST↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of SSME test data reduction methods

Accurate prediction of hardware and flow characteristics within the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) during transient and main-stage operation requires a significant integration of ground test data, flight experience, and computational models. The process of integrating SSME test measurements with physical model predictions is commonly referred to as data reduction. Uncertainties within both test measurements and simplified models of the SSME flow environment compound the data integration problem. The first objective of this effort was to establish an acceptability criterion for data reduction solutions. The second objective of this effort was to investigate the data reduction potential of the ROCETS (Rocket Engine Transient Simulation) simulation platform. A simplified ROCETS model of the SSME was obtained from the MSFC Performance Analysis Branch . This model was examined and tested for physical consistency. Two modules were constructed and added to the ROCETS library to independently check the mass and energy balances of selected engine subsystems including the low pressure fuel turbopump, the high pressure fuel turbopump, the low pressure oxidizer turbopump, the high pressure oxidizer turbopump, the fuel preburner, the oxidizer preburner, the main combustion chamber coolant circuit, and the nozzle coolant circuit. A sensitivity study was then conducted to determine the individual influences of forty-two hardware characteristics on fourteen high pressure region prediction variables as returned by the SSME ROCETS model.

Santi, L. Michael↗
NASA NTRS2006

Difficult Decisions Made Easier

NASA missions are extremely complex and prone to sudden, catastrophic failure if equipment falters or if an unforeseen event occurs. For these reasons, NASA trains to expect the unexpected. It tests its equipment and systems in extreme conditions, and it develops risk-analysis tests to foresee any possible problems. The Space Agency recently worked with an industry partner to develop reliability analysis software capable of modeling complex, highly dynamic systems, taking into account variations in input parameters and the evolution of the system over the course of a mission. The goal of this research was multifold. It included performance and risk analyses of complex, multiphase missions, like the insertion of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter; reliability analyses of systems with redundant and/or repairable components; optimization analyses of system configurations with respect to cost and reliability; and sensitivity analyses to identify optimal areas for uncertainty reduction or performance enhancement.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2006

Technology Assessment in Support of the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration

This paper discusses the process and results of technology assessment in support of the United States Vision for Space Exploration of the Moon, Mars and Beyond. The paper begins by reviewing the Presidential Vision: a major endeavor in building systems of systems. It discusses why we wish to return to the Moon, and the exploration architecture for getting there safely, sustaining a presence, and safely returning. Next, a methodology for optimal technology investment is proposed with discussion of inputs including a capability hierarchy, mission importance weightings, available resource profiles as a function of time, likelihoods of development success, and an objective function. A temporal optimization formulation is offered, and the investment recommendations presented along with sensitivity analyses. Key questions addressed are sensitivity of budget allocations to cost uncertainties, reduction in available budget levels, and shifting funding within constraints imposed by mission timeline.

technology↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment Using ASCENDS Observations and WRF-STILT Footprints

Knowledge of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 is hampered by sparse measurements. The recent advent of satellite measurements of CO2 concentrations is increasing the density of measurements, and the future mission ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons) will provide even greater coverage and precision. Lagrangian atmospheric transport models run backward in time can quantify surface influences ("footprints") of diverse measurement platforms and are particularly well suited for inverse estimation of regional surface CO2 fluxes at high resolution based on satellite observations. We utilize the STILT Lagrangian particle dispersion model, driven by WRF meteorological fields at 40-km resolution, in a Bayesian synthesis inversion approach to quantify the ability of ASCENDS column CO2 observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution. This study focuses on land-based biospheric fluxes, whose uncertainties are especially large, in a domain encompassing North America. We present results based on realistic input fields for 2007. Pseudo-observation random errors are estimated from backscatter and optical depth measured by the CALIPSO satellite. We estimate a priori flux uncertainties based on output from the CASA-GFED (v.3) biosphere model and make simple assumptions about spatial and temporal error correlations. WRF-STILT footprints are convolved with candidate vertical weighting functions for ASCENDS. We find that at a horizontal flux resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree, ASCENDS observations are potentially able to reduce average weekly flux uncertainties by 0-8% in July, and 0-0.5% in January (assuming an error of 0.5 ppm at the Railroad Valley reference site). Aggregated to coarser resolutions, e.g. 5 degrees x 5 degrees, the uncertainty reductions are larger and more similar to those estimated in previous satellite data observing system simulation experiments.

Wang, James S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Supportability Challenges, Metrics, and Key Decisions for Future Human Spaceflight

Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.

Owens, Andrew C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗
NASA NTRS2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulations of Jet Noise in Flight Conditions

A campaign of wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (WMLES) using structured curvilinear overlapping grids has been performed with the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to predict jet noise for single-stream axisymmetric round jets. The simulations address the new Prediction Uncertainty Reduction (PUR) technical challenge within the context of NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology (CST) project. The focus of this effort is to generate a simulation database for single-stream axisymmetric round nozzles at several operating points both for static (no ambient co-flow), and in-flight (M ͚ =0.3 co-flow) conditions. The operating conditions range in jet exit Mach number from 0.38 to 1.1 with nozzle temperature ratios (NTR) from 0.84 to 2.7. The effect of the flight-stream on far-field noise sound spectra is assessed. Comparison of LES predictions to microphone array measurements demonstrate good agreement within the resolved frequency range. A dip in the predicted low frequency noise spectra for observers between 120° and 145° is observed. This dip is smaller for lower Mach numbers and seems to be correlated to the Mach wave radiation angle. The Mach 1.1 jet shows broadband-shock associated noise. While the onset of BBSN appears to be captured correctly in WMLES, some differences in its magnitude and the prominent frequency at which it occurs persist between the experiment and the simulations. The effect of the outer nozzle boundary layer state created by the co-flow is assessed and shows to be important for accurate comparisons with experiments. A change of 2.5dB between a slip-wall condition and a artificially thickened turbulent boundary layer was observed. In addition, simulations were performed with an alternative nozzle geometry that includes a internal plug and has twice the nozzle exit diameter. These two configurations resulted in very comparable spectra which is consistent with experimental observations. A generally stronger deviation from experimental results is observed for in-flight cases compared to static conditions. The applicability and correct usage of acoustic analogies used for far-field propagation with strong turbulent co-flows needs to be investigated more systematically using canonical problems to improve comparisons between experiments and WMLES. This is especially true for coherent noise sources seen in BBSN.

CST↗
NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗
NASA NTRS1989

Multiresolutional models of uncertainty generation and reduction

Kolmogorov's axiomatic principles of the probability theory, are reconsidered in the scope of their applicability to the processes of knowledge acquisition and interpretation. The model of uncertainty generation is modified in order to reflect the reality of engineering problems, particularly in the area of intelligent control. This model implies algorithms of learning which are organized in three groups which reflect the degree of conceptualization of the knowledge the system is dealing with. It is essential that these algorithms are motivated by and consistent with the multiresolutional model of knowledge representation which is reflected in the structure of models and the algorithms of learning.

Meystel, A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Satellite-based Assessment of Trans-Pacific Transport of Pollution Aerosol

It has been well documented that pollution aerosol and dust from East Asia can transport across the North Pacific basin, reaching North America and beyond. Such intercontinental transport extends the impact of aerosols for climate change, air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and ocean biology from local and regional scales to hemispheric and global scales. Long term, measurement-based studies are necessary to adequately assess the implications of these wider impacts. A satellite-based assessment can augment intensive field campaigns by expanding temporal and spatial scales and also serve as constraints for model simulations. Satellite imagers have been providing a wealth of evidence for the intercontinental transport of aerosols for more than two decades. Quantitative assessments, however, became feasible only recently as a result of the much improved measurement accuracy and enhanced new capabilities of satellite sensors. In this study, we generated a 4-year (2002 to 2005) climatology of optical depth for pollution aerosol (defined as a mixture of aerosols from urbanlindustrial pollution and biomass burning in this study) over the North Pacific from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) observations of fine- and coarse-mode aerosol optical depths. The pollution aerosol mass loading and fluxes were then calculated using measurements of the dependence of aerosol mass extinction efficiency on relative humidity and of aerosol vertical distributions from field campaigns and available satellite observations in the region. We estimated that about 18 Tg/year pollution aerosol is exported from East Asia to the northwestern Pacific Ocean, of which about 25% reaches the west coast of North America. The pollution fluxes are largest in spring and smallest in summer. For the period we have examined the strongest export and import of pollution particulates occurred in 2003, due largely to record intense Eurasia wildfires in spring and summer. The overall uncertainty of pollution fluxes is estimated at about 80%. A reduction of uncertainty can be achieved with a better characterization of pollution aerosol through integrating emerging A-Train measurements. Simulations by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) models agree quite well with the satellite-based estimates of annual and latitudeintegrated fluxes, with larger model-satellite differences in latitudinal variations of fluxes.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Second SeaWiFS HPLC Analysis Round-Robin Experiment (SeaHARRE-2)

Eight international laboratories specializing in the determination of marine pigment concentrations using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) were intercompared using in situ samples and a variety of laboratory standards. The field samples were collected primarily from eutrophic waters, although mesotrophic waters were also sampled to create a dynamic range in chlorophyll concentration spanning approximately two orders of magnitude (0.3 25.8 mg m-3). The intercomparisons were used to establish the following: a) the uncertainties in quantitating individual pigments and higher-order variables (sums, ratios, and indices); b) an evaluation of spectrophotometric versus HPLC uncertainties in the determination of total chlorophyll a; and c) the reduction in uncertainties as a result of applying quality assurance (QA) procedures associated with extraction, separation, injection, degradation, detection, calibration, and reporting (particularly limits of detection and quantitation). In addition, the remote sensing requirements for the in situ determination of total chlorophyll a were investigated to determine whether or not the average uncertainty for this measurement is being satisfied. The culmination of the activity was a validation of the round-robin methodology plus the development of the requirements for validating an individual HPLC method. The validation process includes the measurements required to initially demonstrate a pigment is validated, and the measurements that must be made during sample analysis to confirm a method remains validated. The so-called performance-based metrics developed here describe a set of thresholds for a variety of easily-measured parameters with a corresponding set of performance categories. The aggregate set of performance parameters and categories establish a) the overall performance capability of the method, and b) whether or not the capability is consistent with the required accuracy objectives.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗