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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1989

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

The probabilistic structural analysis method (PSAM) was developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine turbopump blades. Risk is calculated after expensive service experience. However, probabilistic structural analysis provides a rational alternative method to quantify uncertainties in the structural performance and durability. NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a probabilistic structural analysis computer code which integrates finite element methods and reliability algorithms, capable to predicting the probability distributions of structural response variables such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads. This computer code is detailed.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic structural analysis computer code (NESSUS)

Probabilistic structural analysis has been developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as SSME turbopump blades. The computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress) was developed to serve as a primary computation tool for the characterization of the probabilistic structural response due to the stochastic environments by statistical description. The code consists of three major modules NESSUS/PRE, NESSUS/FEM, and NESSUS/FPI. NESSUS/PRE is a preprocessor which decomposes the spatially correlated random variables into a set of uncorrelated random variables using a modal analysis method. NESSUS/FEM is a finite element module which provides structural sensitivities to all the random variables considered. NESSUS/FPI is Fast Probability Integration method by which a cumulative distribution function or a probability density function is calculated.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Design of a Plate-Like Wing to Meet Flutter and Strength Requirements

An approach is presented for carrying out reliability-based design of a metallic, plate-like wing to meet strength and flutter requirements that are given in terms of risk/reliability. The design problem is to determine the thickness distribution such that wing weight is a minimum and the probability of failure is less than a specified value. Failure is assumed to occur if either the flutter speed is less than a specified allowable or the stress caused by a pressure loading is greater than a specified allowable. Four uncertain quantities are considered: wing thickness, calculated flutter speed, allowable stress, and magnitude of a uniform pressure load. The reliability-based design optimization approach described herein starts with a design obtained using conventional deterministic design optimization with margins on the allowables. Reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation with response surfaces that provide values of stresses and flutter speed. During the reliability-based design optimization, the response surfaces and move limits are coordinated to ensure accuracy of the response surfaces. Studies carried out in the paper show the relationship between reliability and weight and indicate that, for the design problem considered, increases in reliability can be obtained with modest increases in weight.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗

NASA NTRS2025

Assessment of Radiation Scattering by Dust in Mars Entry

The impact of gas phase radiation scattering by dust particle presence in Mars entry scenarios is assessed using a suite of numerical tools. A hypersonic gas and dilute particle multiphase flow is simulated using a mixed continuum model and an efficient size distribution quadrature scheme. Radiative transport is simulated with a hybrid ray-tracing and P1 spherical harmonics model. The NASA HARA radiation code and a Lorentz-Mie scattering model are used to predict the gas-particle mixture radiative properties. Application of the numerical suite to a representative case based on the Mars 2020 entry shows that, even at conditions in excess of the strongest recorded dust storm, the augmentation in surface radiative heat flux due to scattering alone is lower than 1%, and therefore negligible. Predictions with even higher dust loading conditions confirm that even highly uncertain dust mass profiles are unlikely to be a concern for the scattering augmentation mechanism.

Andrew Hinkle↗

NASA NTRS2014

Spectral Dependence of MODIS Cloud Droplet Effective Radius Retrievals for Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

Low-level warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds cover large regions of Earth's surface. They have a significant role in Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle. Despite the fundamental role of low-level warm water clouds in climate, our understanding of these clouds is still limited. In particular, connections between their properties (e.g. cloud fraction, cloud water path, and cloud droplet size) and environmental factors such as aerosol loading and meteorological conditions continue to be uncertain or unknown. Modeling these clouds in climate models remains a challenging problem. As a result, the influence of aerosols on these clouds in the past and future, and the potential impacts of these clouds on global warming remain open questions leading to substantial uncertainty in climate projections. To improve our understanding of these clouds, we need continuous observations of cloud properties on both a global scale and over a long enough timescale for climate studies. At present, satellite-based remote sensing is the only means of providing such observations.

Cloud physics↗

NASA NTRS2017

Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

NASA NTRS1977

An information matrix approach for aircraft parameter-insensitive control

The Fisher Information Matrix provides the nucleus of a design procedure for obtaining parameter-insensitive feedback gains in Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian problems. The procedure minimizes a sum of performance and closed-loop sensitivity costs, the latter being related to the information content of the system response. Analytical expressions for the appended cost functional and its gradient with respect to the feedback gains are derived. These derivatives serve as the basis of a computationally efficient iterative algorithm that finds the optimal gains. Application of the technique is made to determine low sensitivity feedback gains for a C-5A wing loading alleviation system that has 15 states and three uncertain parameters.

Kleinman, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Design of a Wind Tunnel Model to Match the Response of a Full-Scale Aircraft

approach is presented for carrying out the reliability-based design of a plate-like wing that is part of a wind tunnel model. The goal is to design the wind tunnel model to match the stiffness characteristics of the wing box of a flight vehicle while satisfying strength-based risk/reliability requirements that prevents damage to the wind tunnel model and fixtures. The flight vehicle is a modified F/A-18 aircraft. The design problem is solved using reliability-based optimization techniques. The objective function to be minimized is the difference between the displacements of the wind tunnel model and the corresponding displacements of the flight vehicle. The design variables control the thickness distribution of the wind tunnel model. Displacements of the wind tunnel model change with the thickness distribution, while displacements of the flight vehicle are a set of fixed data. The only constraint imposed is that the probability of failure is less than a specified value. Failure is assumed to occur if the stress caused by aerodynamic pressure loading is greater than the specified strength allowable. Two uncertain quantities are considered: the allowable stress and the thickness distribution of the wind tunnel model. Reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation with response surfaces that provide approximate values of stresses. The response surface equations are, in turn, computed from finite element analyses of the wind tunnel model at specified design points. Because the response surface approximations were fit over a small region centered about the current design, the response surfaces were refit periodically as the design variables changed. Coarse-grained parallelism was used to simultaneously perform multiple finite element analyses. Studies carried out in this paper demonstrate that this scheme of using moving response surfaces and coarse-grained computational parallelism reduce the execution time of the Monte Carlo simulation enough to make the design problem tractable. The results of the reliability-based designs performed in this paper show that large decreases in the probability of stress-based failure can be realized with only small sacrifices in the ability of the wind tunnel model to represent the displacements of the full-scale vehicle.

Mason, Brian H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implications of using MERRA-2 cloud water in aerosol wet scavenging for Pb-210 surface concentrations and vertical profiles in GEOS-Chem

Precipitation scavenging is the dominant loss process for a whole suite of aerosols but model parameterizations of this process are highly uncertain, substantially contributing to large uncertainties in the simulated loadings and radiative forcing of aerosols. Lead-210 (210Pb, radioactive half-life of 22.3 years) is produced by radioactive decay of soil-emitted gaseous 222Rn. It attaches to ambient submicron aerosols and is subject to precipitation scavenging processes. Liu et al. [2001] estimated the global mean lifetime of tropospheric 210Pb aerosols to be ~9 days using the GEOS-Chem model. Luo et al. [2019, 2020] provided an option to use MERRA-2 cloud water in the model aerosol scavenging scheme. In this study, we examine the impact of this revision on 210Pb simulations and compare results with climatological observations of 210Pb surface and UT/LS concentrations, as well as aircraft profile measurements from eleven NASA field missions.

Bo Zhang↗

NASA NTRS1993

The application of structural reliability techniques to plume impingement loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Array

A new aerospace application of structural reliability techniques is presented, where the applied forces depend on many probabilistic variables. This application is the plume impingement loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Arrays. When the space shuttle berths with Space Station Freedom it must brake and maneuver towards the berthing point using its primary jets. The jet exhaust, or plume, may cause high loads on the photovoltaic arrays. The many parameters governing this problem are highly uncertain and random. An approach, using techniques from structural reliability, as opposed to the accepted deterministic methods, is presented which assesses the probability of failure of the array mast due to plume impingement loading. A Monte Carlo simulation of the berthing approach is used to determine the probability distribution of the loading. A probability distribution is also determined for the strength of the array. Structural reliability techniques are then used to assess the array mast design. These techniques are found to be superior to the standard deterministic dynamic transient analysis, for this class of problem. The results show that the probability of failure of the current array mast design, during its 15 year life, is minute.

Yunis, Isam S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Application of Structural Reliability Techniques to Plume Impingement Loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Array

Yunis, Isam S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Preliminary results on the conversion of laser energy into electricity

A preliminary experiment was performed to investigate conversion of 10.6 micron laser energy to electrical energy via a laser-sustained argon plasma. Short-circuit currents of 0.7 A were measured between a thoriated-tungsten emitter and collector electrodes immersed in the laser-sustained argon plasma. Open-circuit voltages of about 1.5 V were inferred from the current-voltage load characteristics. The dominant mechanism of laser energy conversion is uncertain at this time. Much higher output powers appear possible.

Thompson, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Particle sizes and composition of Mars atmospheric dust based upon Viking and Mariner 9 observations

Mars atmospheric dust can play an important role in the thermal structure of the Mars atmosphere during periods of high dust loading. However, the radiative properties of Mars atmospheric dust remain uncertain due to uncertain definitions of the dust composition and size distribution. The analysis by Toon et al., of Mariner 9 IRIS spectra during the 1971-1972 global dust storm indicated a reasonable match between the modeled 9-micron absorption of montmorillinite and the observed 9-micron absorption. Toon et al. also determined that an effective (cross-section weighted) mean radius of 2.5 microns (R(sub mode) = 0.4 microns) provided a consistent fit of montmorillinite to the IRIS dust spectra at 9 microns. Pollack et al. analyzed Viking lander observations of atmospheric extinction and scattering at visible-near IR wavelengths (0.5-1.0 microns), and obtained consistency with the Toon et al. dust size distribution when the effects of nonspherical particle shapes were included. An additional, minor (1 percent) component of visible-ultraviolet absorbing material was required to model the derived visible (0.86) and ultraviolet (0.4-0.6) single-scattering albedos of the dust, since montmorillinite does not absorb sufficiently in this wavelength region. A combined analysis of the Viking IRTM and Mariner 9 observations was conducted to reassess the model of Mars atmospheric ultraviolet-to-infrared measurements of dust absorption and scattering. The optical constants for palagonite are incorporated in a doubling-adding radiative transfer model of the Mars atmosphere to simulate Mariner 9 IRIS spectra as well as the Viking IRTM IR band observations. Visible and ultraviolet single-scattering albedos based on the Hansen and Travis Mie scattering code were also derived. A tentative conclusion is that smaller dust particles (R(sub mode) = 0.15 microns, cross-section weighted mean R = 1.2 microns) composed of palagonite provide a much improved fit to the Mariner 9 IRIS spectra; agreement with the observed ratio of visible-to-infrared extinction opacities; and ultraviolet and visible single-scattering albedos comparable to their observed values.

Clancy, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000−7.04 million deaths and 80−240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

nuclear power plants↗

NASA NTRS2014

Design and Control of Compliant Tensegrity Robots Through Simulation and Hardware Validation

To better understand the role of tensegrity structures in biological systems and their application to robotics, the Dynamic Tensegrity Robotics Lab at NASA Ames Research Center has developed and validated two different software environments for the analysis, simulation, and design of tensegrity robots. These tools, along with new control methodologies and the modular hardware components developed to validate them, are presented as a system for the design of actuated tensegrity structures. As evidenced from their appearance in many biological systems, tensegrity ("tensile-integrity") structures have unique physical properties which make them ideal for interaction with uncertain environments. Yet these characteristics, such as variable structural compliance, and global multi-path load distribution through the tension network, make design and control of bio-inspired tensegrity robots extremely challenging. This work presents the progress in using these two tools in tackling the design and control challenges. The results of this analysis includes multiple novel control approaches for mobility and terrain interaction of spherical tensegrity structures. The current hardware prototype of a six-bar tensegrity, code-named ReCTeR, is presented in the context of this validation.

Robotics↗

NASA NTRS1987

The NESSUS finite element code

The objective of this development is to provide a new analysis tool which integrates the structural modeling versatility of a modern finite element code with the latest advances in the area of probabilistic modeling and structural reliability. Version 2.0 of the NESSUS finite element code was released last February, and is currently being exercised on a set of problems which are representative of typical Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) applications. NESSUS 2.0 allows linear elastostatic and eigenvalue analysis of structures with uncertain geometry, material properties and boundary conditions, which are subjected to a random mechanical and thermal loading environment. The NESSUS finite element code is a key component in a broader software system consisting of five major modules. NESSUS/EXPERT is an expert system under development at Southwest Research Institute, with the objective of centralizing all component-specific knowledge useful for conducting probabilistic analysis of typical Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. NESSUS/FEM contains the finite element code used for the structural analysis and parameter sensitivity evaluation of these components. The task of parametrizing a finite element mesh in terms of the random variables present is facilitated with the use of the probabilistic data preprocessor in NESSUS/PRE. An external database file is used for managing the bulk of the data generated by NESSUS/FEM.

Dias, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Space Radiation Induced Bone Changes in Rat Femurs through Finite Element Analysis

As the duration of manned missions outside of the Earth’s protective shielding increase, astronauts are at risk for exposure to space radiation. Various organ systems may be damaged due to exposure. This study investigates the bonestrength changes using finite element modeling of Long Evans rats (n=85) subjected to graded, head-only proton (0, 10, 25, and 100 cGy, 150 MeV/n) and 28silicon (0, 10, 25, and 50 cGy, 300 MeV/n) radiation. The strength of the femoral neck will be examined due its clinical relevance to hip fractures. It has been shown in previous studies that bone mineral density was not reduced at the site of fracture. These findings question whether measurements of bone mineral density may be used to assess risk of hip fracture. The mechanisms leading to the irregular relationship between bone density and strength are still uncertain within literature and investigated to greater extent in clinical applications. Finite element analysis within this study simulated physiological loading of the femoral neck. No significant changes in femoral neck strength were found across doses of proton or 28silicon head-only radiation. Future work includes performing mechanical testing of the bone samples. Moving from mouse to larger animal models may also provide the increased lifespan for assessing the long-term outcomes of radiation exposure.

Dale Johnson↗

NASA NTRS2005

Robust Load-Sharing Control of Spacecraft Formations

This paper focuses on the design of autonomous and collaborative control strategies to govern the relative distances among multiple spacecraft in formation with no ground intervention. A coordinate load-sharing control structure for formation flying and a methodology to control their dynamic models with slow time-varying and uncertain parameters are the main objectives of this work. The method is applied to a deep space formation example, where the uncertainty in spacecraft fuel masses is also considered.

multi spacecraft↗