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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Methods for trend analysis: Examples with problem/failure data

Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted.

Church, Curtis K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trend Analysis of AI/ML Tools and Services in NASA

Usage of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms within NASA’s Science Mission Directorates have been increasing over theyears. This can be quantitatively observed in the upward trends of ML usage found by analyzing the publications andpresentations (in affiliation with NASA) available through NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) and PubMed Central(PMC). Identifying the problem types and class of ML algorithms used to tackle them across the divisions can presentopportunities for collaborations, interdisciplinary projects and knowledge transfer for sustainable partnerships. In thispresentation, we will present the trend analysis of ML algorithms used in different SMD divisions based on the publicationsand presentations publicly available. We identify these trends by leveraging ML algorithms which are able to search throughthe publication texts semantically; which are also highly scalable. We will also present an analysis on the available opensource tools and services in NASA leveraging AI/ML algorithms. This work will provide ample avenues for collaborativeefforts across different disciplines based on the surfaced trends.

Slesa Adhikari↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trend Analysis of AI/ML Tools and Services in NASA

Usage of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms within NASA’s Science Mission Directorates have been increasing over the years. This can be quantitatively observed in the upward trends of ML usage found by analyzing the publications and presentations (in affiliation with NASA) available through NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) and PubMed Central(PMC). Identifying the problem types and class of ML algorithms used to tackle them across the divisions can present opportunities for collaborations, interdisciplinary projects and knowledge transfer for sustainable partnerships. In this presentation, we will present the trend analysis of ML algorithms used in different SMD divisions based on the publications and presentations publicly available. We identify these trends by leveraging ML algorithms which are able to search through the publication texts semantically; which are also highly scalable. We will also present an analysis on the available opensource tools and services in NASA leveraging AI/ML algorithms. This work will provide ample avenues for collaborative efforts across different disciplines based on the surfaced trends.

Slesa Adhikari↗
NASA NTRS1989

Launch commit criteria performance trending analysis, phase 1, revision A. SRM and QA mission services

An assessment of quantitative methods and measures for measuring launch commit criteria (LCC) performance measurement trends is made. A statistical performance trending analysis pilot study was processed and compared to STS-26 mission data. This study used four selected shuttle measurement types (solid rocket booster, external tank, space shuttle main engine, and range safety switch safe and arm device) from the five missions prior to mission 51-L. After obtaining raw data coordinates, each set of measurements was processed to obtain statistical confidence bounds and mean data profiles for each of the selected measurement types. STS-26 measurements were compared to the statistical data base profiles to verify the statistical capability of assessing occurrences of data trend anomalies and abnormal time-varying operational conditions associated with data amplitude and phase shifts.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

Estimating Confidence In Data Via Trend Analysis

Recursive equation defines probability-density function storing trends in noisy or potentially erroneous data. Part of algorithm for analysis of trends in data. Developed to determine reliability of data from sensor used to guide robot, and mathematical approach that it represents proves valuable in other applications. Enables computation of statistic (called "confidence statistic") indicating level of confidence in new datum. Generates confidence statistic high or low, depending on whether new datum consistent or inconsistent with previous trends.

Gutow, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2013

SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning

Report to help utilities and energy efficiency organizations forecast the order in which important SSL applications will become cost-effective and estimate when each "tipping point" will be reached. Includes performance trend analysis from DOE's LED Lighting Facts® and CALiPER programs plus cost analysis from various sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Linguistic Preprocessing and Tagging for Problem Report Trend Analysis

Mr. Robert Beil, Systems Engineer at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) develop a prototype tool suite that combines complementary software technology used at Johnson Space Center (JSC) and KSC for problem report preprocessing and semantic tag extraction, to improve input to data mining and trend analysis. This document contains the outcome of the assessment and the Findings, Observations and NESC Recommendations.

Beil, Robert J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI) Solar Trend Analysis

This report is a summary of the finance trends for small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects (PV <1 MW), large-scale PV projects (PV greater than or equal to 1 MW), and concentrated solar power projects as reported in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI). The report presents REFTI data during the five quarterly periods from the fourthquarter of 2009 to the first half of 2011. The REFTI project relies exclusively on the voluntary participation of industry stakeholders for its data; therefore, it does not offer a comprehensive view of the technologies it tracks. Despite this limitation, REFTI is the only publicly available resource for renewable energy project financial terms. REFTI analysis offers usable inputs into theproject economic evaluations of developers and investors, as well as the policy assessments of public utility commissions and others in the renewable energy industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

Staehelin, Johannes↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard ED photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Launch commit criteria performance trending analysis

Summarized results and recommendations are presented for a prototype performance-trending study sponsored by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) with NASA Headquarters support. The acquirement of this recognition capability is statistically addressed through the expansion of an arbitrary probability density function (PDF) of the Gram-Charlier series type. This PDF is utilized to assess the relative deviation of any future measurement confidence bounds for launch commit criteria. As a result, the probabilistic assessment of time-varying measurement fluctuation stability can be identified in terms of these historical measurement profiles.

Hart, G. F.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Pattern recognition of Landsat data based upon temporal trend analysis

The Delta Classifier defined as an agricultural crop classification scheme employing a temporal trend procedure is applied to more than 100 different Landsat data sets collected during the 1974-1975 growing season throughout the major wheat-producing regions of the United States. The classification approach stresses examination of temporal trends of the Landsat mean vectors of crops in the absence of corresponding ground truth information. It is shown that the resulting classifications compare favorably to ground truth estimates for wheat proportion in those cases where ground truth is available, and that the temporal trend procedure yields estimates of the wheat proportion that are comparable to the best results from maximum likelihood classification with photointerpreter-defined training fields.

Engvall, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A statistical trend analysis of ozonesonde data

A detailed statistical analysis of monthly averages of ozonesond readings is performed to assess trends in ozone in the troposphere and the lower to midstratosphere. Regression time series models, which include seasonal and trend factors, are estimated for 13 stations located mainly in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. At each station, trend estimates are calculated for 14 'fractional' Umkehr layers covering the altitude range from 0 to 33 km. For the 1970-1982 period, the main findings indicate an overall negative trend in ozonesonde data in the lower stratosphere (15-21 km) of about -0.5 percent per year, and some evidence of a positive trend in the troposphere (0-5 km) of about 0.8 percent per year. An in-depth sensitivity study of the trend estimates is performed with respect to various correction procedures used to normalize ozonesonde readings to Dobson total ozone measurements. The main results indicate that the negative trend findings in the 15- to 21-km altitude region are robust to the normalization procedures considered.

Tiao, G. C.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Text Stream Trend Analysis using Multiscale Visual Analytics with Applications to Social Media Systems

In this paper, we introduce a new visual analytics system, called Matisse, that allows exploration of global trends in textual information streams with specific application to social media platforms. Despite the potential for real-time situational awareness using these services, interactive analysis of such semi-structured textual information is a challenge due to the high-throughput and high-velocity properties. Matisse addresses these challenges through the following contributions: (1) robust stream data management, (2) automated sen- timent/emotion analytics, (3) inferential temporal, geospatial, and term-frequency visualizations, and (4) a flexible drill-down interaction scheme that progresses from macroscale to microscale views. In addition to describing these contributions, our work-in-progress paper concludes with a practical case study focused on the analysis of Twitter 1% sample stream information captured during the week of the Boston Marathon bombings.

interaction↗
NASA NTRS1988

Requirements for significant problem reporting and trend analysis

This handbook supplements policies, requirements, and procedures of NMI 8070.3 to ensure that NASA management at each organizational level is: fully aware of trends affecting both the level of safety and the potential for mission success established for both NASA manned space programs and its supporting institutions; fully and independently informed of problems that represent significant risk to the safety of all personnel (including the general populace) and to the success of a mission or operation through a program mechanism herein defined as Significant Problem Reporting; and in full agreement with the level of elimination of these problems through the closed-loop accounting of corrective actions. The requirements of this handbook are supportive of the agency's safety, reliability, maintainability, and quality assurance (SRM&QA) program objectives and are applicable to all organizational elements of NASA connected with or supporting developmental or operational manned space program/projects (including associated payloads) and the related institutional facilities.

George A Rodney↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multi-year application of WRF-CAM5 over East Asia-Part II: Interannual variability, trend analysis, and aerosol indirect effects

Following a comprehensive evaluation of WRF-CAM5 in Part I, Part II describes analyses of interannual variability, multi-year variation trends, and the direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols. Here, the interannual variations of chemical column and surface concentrations, and ozone (O 3 )/particulate matter (PM) indicators are strongly correlated to anthropogenic emission changes. Despite model biases, the model captures well the observed interannual variations of temperature at 2-m, cloud fraction, shortwave cloud forcing, downwelling shortwave radiation, cloud droplet number concentration, column O 3 , and column formaldehyde (HCHO) for the whole domain. While the model reproduces the volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes of O 3 chemistry at sites in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) and the degree of sulfate neutralization at the EANET sites, it has limited capability in capturing the interannual variations of the ratio of O 3 and nitrogen dioxide (O 3 /NO 2 ) and PM chemical regime indicators, due to uncertainties in the emissions of precursors for O 3 and secondary PM, the model assumption for ammonium bisulfate (NH 4 HSO 4 ) as well as lack of gas/particle partitioning of total ammonia and total nitrate. While the variation trends in multi-year periods in aerosol optical depth and column concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and NO 2 are mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions, those of major meteorological and cloud variables partly reflect feedbacks of chemistry to meteorological variables. The impacts of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects either dominate or play an important role in the aerosol total effects for most cloud and chemical predictions, whereas anthropogenic aerosol direct effects influence most meteorological and radiation variables. The direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong interannual variability in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗