Engineering PapersSearch

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “trajectory uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Human Spaceflight Trajectory Operations: A Case Study from STS-132/ULF4

Prior to the launch of the STS-132/ULF4 mission, the International Space Station (ISS) Flight Control Team was alerted to the approach of a space debris with a predicted time of closest approach approximately 1 hr after Space Shuttle docking. As a result, the ISS team considered performing a collision avoidance maneuver prior to the Space Shuttle s approach. The purpose of this presentation will be to use this case study to illustrate best practices of the human spaceflight trajectory operations team. The presentation will begin with an overview of the roles of the real-time ISS and Space Shuttle trajectory flight control teams. Then, the STS-132/ULF4 case study will be used to illustrate the issues and lessons learned involved in performing Space Shuttle rendezvous maneuver planning and execution. Specific elements of the STS-132 Space Shuttle rendezvous maneuver profile that can be used to provide mission assurance in cases of trajectory uncertainty will be described and discussed. Additionally, this case study will be used to provide context for identifying lessons learned in an operational environment that requires technical and decision-making coordination between two control center teams with two potentially maneuvering space vehicles.

Cutri-Kohart, Rebecca

Venus Atmospheric Probe and Flyby Relay Spacecraft Cross-Link Tracking Impact on Relative Pointing Accuracy

Scientific exploration of Venus using an atmospheric probe requires relaying telemetry to Earth as the probe descends through the atmosphere to the surface of Venus. Using the flyby spacecraft to relay the probe telemetry to Earth will require precise carrier-to-probe pointing accuracy of the relay spacecraft’s antenna. NASA’s Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging (DAVINCI) mission uses this carrier-to-probe relay technique. Although DAVINCI includes a coherent cross-link for science, this is not baselined for navigation tracking. This paper explores the potential effectiveness of cross-link tracking for reducing trajectory uncertainty and improving spacecraft-to-probe pointing.

DAVINCI

BioSentinel: Mission Summary and Lessons Learned From the First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel

Improved Aerothermal Reliability Analysis Enabled by the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System Aerothermal Database

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign is a series of missions designed to retrieve Martian rock and soil samples for detailed study on Earth. The campaign is split into three primary phases: sample collection with the Mars2020 rover, retrieval with the Sample Return Lander (SRL) and Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), and then return to Earth with the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) [1]. The final sequence in the Earth return phase is the delivery and entry of the Earth Entry System (EES) sample return capsule. Due to unprecedented planetary protection concerns, the sample return capsule is subject to strict reliability requirements. To this end, the MSR-EES aerothermal team has implemented a flexible aerothermal database architecture capable of integration with state-of-the-art trajectory codes to provide a more rigorous aerothermal reliability analysis. The EES database enables the generation of environments at any location on the heatshield and can incorporate trajectory uncertainties to both statistically quantify aerothermal environments for arcjet testing and produce material response boundary conditions to rigorously select thermal protection system (TPS) sizing environments. This poster will not discuss the fundamental modeling assumptions included in the database, and will instead focus on the downstream reliability analyses that can be performed with a database of this architecture.

MSR-EES

Biosentinel: Mission Summary and Lessons Learned From the First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel

Biosentinel: The First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission- Mission Summary and Lessons Learned

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel

Vertiport Dynamic Density

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is envisioned to be another spoke in a region’s transportation system, supplementing ground-based travel with air-based travel. Eventually, air taxis will be pervasive, convenient, and affordable. As demand and operations tempo increase, congestion may arise. Several characteristics of AAM reduce the applicability of techniques used in today’s National Airspace System (NAS) to manage congestion. AAM will include both scheduled and non-scheduled, on-demand operations, challenging strategic deconfliction algorithms. Flights will be fairly short, traversing an urban area, not hundreds or thousands of miles, with corresponding low energy reserves, prohibiting excessive delays. Flight operators will need flexibility in operations, scheduling a flight only minutes before departure, or diverting to an alternate vertiport if it becomes advantageous, further adding to trajectory uncertainty that would challenge strategic deconfliction. Finally, operators will desire privacy to protect sensitive information or preserve competitive advantage, limiting early access to intent information. In this paper, we present an approach for managing congestion at vertiports by providing insight into the traffic situation to support operationally-advantageous and safe land or divert decisions. We propose a metric designed with usefulness and usability in AAM operations in mind. The metric uses the sociology concept of dynamic density (DD) that takes into consideration not only number of flights, but also the interaction of those flights with the vertiport’s limited resources, namely the landing pads and the parking spots. DD supports a Pilot in Command (PIC) with decisions about whether to proceed, expedite, delay, or divert; and supports air traffic control (ATC) and vertiport operators in airspace management and vertiport usage. We demonstrate the metric on a notional vertiport scenario. We also show that DD provides better insight into congestion and resulting flight delays than an aircraft count metric used in traditional air traffic management.

Lilly Spirkovska

Space Trajectory Error Analysis Program (STEAP) for halo orbit missions. Volume 1: Analytic and user's manual

Development, test, conversion, and documentation of computer software for the mission analysis of missions to halo orbits about libration points in the earth-sun system is reported. The software consisting of two programs called NOMNAL and ERRAN is part of the Space Trajectories Error Analysis Programs (STEAP). The program NOMNAL targets a transfer trajectory from Earth on a given launch date to a specified halo orbit on a required arrival date. Either impulsive or finite thrust insertion maneuvers into halo orbit are permitted by the program. The transfer trajectory is consistent with a realistic launch profile input by the user. The second program ERRAN conducts error analyses of the targeted transfer trajectory. Measurements including range, doppler, star-planet angles, and apparent planet diameter are processed in a Kalman-Schmidt filter to determine the trajectory knowledge uncertainty. Execution errors at injection, midcourse correction and orbit insertion maneuvers are analyzed along with the navigation uncertainty to determine trajectory control uncertainties and fuel-sizing requirements. The program is also capable of generalized covariance analyses.

Byrnes, D. V.

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Design of Safe Separation Bounds for Temporally Deconflicted Trajectories Under Bounded Uncertainties

This paper explores the derivation of safe separation bounds for a heterogeneous group of~$n$ Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) that are assigned temporally deconflicted trajectories. Compared to spatially deconflicted trajectories, temporal deconfliction can lead to higher traffic capacities and a more efficient use of the available airspace. One challenge with this type of deconfliction is that collisions can occur if some cooperating UAS are behind or ahead of schedule. To overcome this risk, this paper derives a lower bound on the safety distance between two heterogeneous UAS in the presence of bounded uncertainties. This safety distance can be leveraged to inform trajectory generation algorithms. The proposed bound establishes a rigorous safety margin when the fleet deviates from the planned trajectories, both temporally and spatially. For its derivation the paper assumes the UAS implement a distributed coordination algorithm that allows the fleet to maintain their schedules synchronized within a bounded temporal error, and a path-following algorithm that lets the vehicles track a target that moves along the planned trajectory with a bounded spatial error.

autonomy

Trajectory Reconstruction and Uncertainty Analysis Using Mars Science Laboratory Pre-Flight Scale Model Aeroballistic Testing

As part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) trajectory reconstruction effort at NASA Langley Research Center, free-flight aeroballistic experiments of instrumented MSL scale models was conducted at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The models carried an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a flush air data system (FADS) similar to the MSL Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) that provided data types similar to those from the MSL entry. Multiple sources of redundant data were available, including tracking radar and on-board magnetometers. These experimental data enabled the testing and validation of the various tools and methodologies that will be used for MSL trajectory reconstruction. The aerodynamic parameters Mach number, angle of attack, and sideslip angle were estimated using minimum variance with a priori to combine the pressure data and pre-flight computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Both linear and non-linear pressure model terms were also estimated for each pressure transducer as a measure of the errors introduced by CFD and transducer calibration. Parameter uncertainties were estimated using a "consider parameters" approach.

Lugo, Rafael A.

Assessment of Control Algorithms for Mars Entry Vehicles With Flap-Based Trajectory Control Under Uncertainty

Flap-based steering systems on blunt-body entry vehicles may improve flight performance relative to heritage bank-angle steering systems. Successful implementation of articulating aerodynamic flaps on a hypersonic entry vehicle requires an active control system to map angle of attack and sidelip angle commands to flap deflection commands. Here, a successive-linearization model prective control algorithm, as a linear quadratic regulator, are formulated, designed, and assessed to address this multiple input multiple output control problem. These two control algorithms are assessed under uncertainty in Monte Carlo simulations for various control profiles and vehicle configurations. Results indicate that while both control algorithms provide successful command tracking under uncertainty, the model predictive controller provides a lower mean and integral error, as well as greater robustness, relative to the linear-quadratic regulator.

Daniel L Engel

Analysis of Strategic Conflict Management Approaches as Applied to Simulated UAM Operations

This report presents the results of a comparison analysis of candidate Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) strategies as applied to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The SCM strategies investigated included: no SCM, resource scheduling (RS), resource flow rates (FR), area-based flow rates (AR), and conflict detection and resolution (CR). The study evaluated each strategy against the same 3 levels of flight demand in a representative airspace construct for the Dallas/Fort Worth region. The study also accounted for different levels of uncertainty in operational planning and equivalent levels of trajectory following error. In the analysis, we compared the SCM strategies’ effectiveness in reducing the need for the tactical conflict management layer to act and looked at the metrics of unmitigated losses-of-separation (LOS), flight delays imposed by strategic planning, and throughput of the overall airspace. The study results indicated that the CR strategy was the most effective at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS, even in the presence of trajectory error when uncertainty is accounted for in planning. Thus, if the objective is to reduce the number of actions that the tactical conflict management layer will have to take, in terms of conflicts that may need to be resolved, CR is the strategy to use. The FR strategy was found to be the worst at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS. Thus, it is not very effective at reducing the actions required by a tactical conflict management layer. In the airspace tested, the demand was high enough to produce unacceptable levels of flight delay and reductions of throughput when the SCM strategies were implemented. This was especially evident at the higher levels of trajectory uncertainty and error. The need to account for expected levels of uncertainty becomes more and more important as the demand level increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. This is because the likelihood of flights with LOS increases as the density of operations increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. Accounting for uncertainty in the SCM strategies improves the strategy effectiveness with respect to LOS but increases delays and reduces throughput. Thus, there is a tradeoff between scalability and allowable levels of uncertainty. That is, we can implement an air traffic management construct that allows high levels of uncertainty, but we can expect that same system to have limits on scalability that may be evident even at small demand levels, such as those used in this study. Therefore, the results in this study indicate that an air traffic system should attempt to implement mechanisms appropriate for reducing uncertainty where possible in order to increase the chances for scalability. And this increased level of predictability of operations needs to be balanced with mechanisms for ensuring flexibility when operational conditions and plans need to change, even though those types of changes should be the exception rather than the rule under normal conditions. The study also introduced a trade space that could serve as a mechanism for selecting the appropriate SCM strategy in a trade-off between uncertainty and error, mean flight delay, and the LOS metrics (which this study equates to the potential for tactical conflict management actions). The optimal solution for a given airspace, demand level, and other factors, could likely be a combination of SCM strategies, although this study only compared the use of a single SCM strategy at a time. The CR strategy appeared to have the best opportunity for scalability by limiting the number of potential tactical actions to nearly zero.

Strategic Conflict Management

Uncertainty Propagation in Pre-Flight Prediction of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Separation Violation

Current forecasts on the future of aeronautics suggest an in- creasing number of unmanned aerial vehicles entering the low- altitude airspace in the next decades (FAA, 2018; Kopardekar et al., 2016). Small vehicles for package delivery as well as larger vehicles for urban air mobility will change the airspace drastically, increasing density of operations both in time, i.e. high number of take-off and landings per unit time, and in space, operating in dense urban environment. This scenario poses challenges to the current approach to air traffic control, and large efforts from academia, industry and regulatory bodies are dedicated to the development of new traffic management strategies that leverage higher computing and simulating capabilities available today. In this paper, we propose a simple look-ahead approach to predict potential minimum separation violations at the strategic level, that is before vehicles start flying, depending on the predefined 4D trajectories and uncertainty affecting the wind acting along those routes. The wind field is extracted from the NOAA North America Mesoscale Forecast System and interpolated using Gaussian process regression, while uncertainty affecting the expected cruise airspeed is propagated through error intervals. The approach allows the prediction of aircraft separation as a function of time, highlighting potential safety violations that would go undetected if uncertainty affecting the expected 4D trajectories is not considered. The paper will also discuss issues related to accuracy and scalability of the approach to multiple vehicle operations.

Trajectory Prediction