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NASA NTRS1986

IUE observations of Comet Halley: Evolution of the UV spectrum between September 1985 and July 1986

The ultraviolet spectrum of comet P/Halley was monitored with the IUE between 12 September 1985 and 8 July 1986 (r <2.6 AU pre and post-perihelion) at regular time intervals except for a two-month period around the time of perihelion. A complete characterization of the UV spectrum of the comet was obtained to derive coma abundances and to study the light emission mechanisms of the observed species. The Fine Error Sensor (FES) camera of the IUE was used to photometrically investigate the coma brightness variation on time scales of the order of hours. Spectroscopic observations as well as FES measurements show that the activity of the nucleus is highly variable, particularly at the end of December 1985 and during March and April 1986. The production rates of OH, CS and dust are derived for the entire period of the observations. The total water loss rate for this period is estimated to be 150 million metric tons.

Feldman, P. D.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Estimating When the Antarctic Ozone Hole Will Recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-21 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Estimating when the Antarctic Ozone Hole will Recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-2 1 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international a'greements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Some Numerical Experiments on Detonation Wave Propagation

In this paper we present the results of a series of numerical experiments done on the propagation and initiation of a detonation wave. The calculations are performed in one-dimension, with considerable grid resolution. Of particular interest are the following questions: (1) the nature of periodic and chaotic instabilities generated by the wave; (2) the influence of the grid resolution on these instabilities; (3) the influence of the 'quality' of the numerical scheme; and (4) the influence of 'noise'. In the calculations, we use a second-order Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme as the basic numerical method, with grid spacings as low as a fraction of a micron. Detonations waves are generated at the closed end of a tube, and allowed to propagate for approximately 20 cm. The required energy for successful initiation of the detonation will be measured for different cases of grid resolution and numerical schemes. A modified version of the TVD scheme has also been devised, which allows for much lower numerical diffusion of the radical species in the exponentially growing region behind the shock. The effect of this modification will be demonstrated. Oscillations in peak pressure and induction length are seen to develop in some cases: the oscillations can go through a sequence of modes, from a regular, high frequency mode to a low frequency mode with period doubling. A chaotic regime can also be obtained. General conclusions on the quality of algorithms will be presented. We will also discuss the performance of a version of the code developed on the IBM SP2 parallel computer.

Cambier, Jean-Luc↗

NASA NTRS2004

Detecting the Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We will show estimates of both when the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery, and when the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

When will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the .TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to, both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this talk, I will show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections. I will also discuss current assessments of mid-latitude ozone recovery.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗

NASA NTRS2003

Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRS2006

Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS and OMI instruments. The severity of the hole has been assessed using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole), the average size during the September-October period, and the ozone mass deficit. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. We use two methods to estimate ozone hole recovery. First, we use projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates in a parametric model. Second, we use a coupled chemistry climate model to assess recovery. We find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. Furthermore, full recovery to 1980 levels will not occur until approximately 2068. We will also show some error estimates of these dates and the impact of climate change on the recovery.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Soil temperature extrema recovery rates after precipitation cooling

From a one dimensional view of temperature alone variations at the Earth's surface manifest themselves in two cyclic patterns of diurnal and annual periods, due principally to the effects of diurnal and seasonal changes in solar heating as well as gains and losses of available moisture. Beside these two well known cyclic patterns, a third cycle has been identified which occurs in values of diurnal maxima and minima soil temperature extrema at 10 cm depth usually over a mesoscale period of roughly 3 to 14 days. This mesoscale period cycle starts with precipitation cooling of soil and is followed by a power curve temperature recovery. The temperature recovery clearly depends on solar heating of the soil with an increased soil moisture content from precipitation combined with evaporation cooling at soil temperatures lowered by precipitation cooling, but is quite regular and universal for vastly different geographical locations, and soil types and structures. The regularity of the power curve recovery allows a predictive model approach over the recovery period. Multivariable linear regression models alloy predictions of both the power of the temperature recovery curve as well as the total temperature recovery amplitude of the mesoscale temperature recovery, from data available one day after the temperature recovery begins.

Welker, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Four years of ground-based total ozone measurements by visible spectrometry in Antarctica

Visible spectrometers SAOZ have been developed at Service d'Aeronomie for permanent ground-based ozone monitoring at all latitudes up to the polar circle in winter. Observations are made by looking at the sunlight scattered at zenith in the visible range, twice a day, at sunrise and sunset. Compared to ozone observations in the UV generally in use, visible observations in the small Chappuis bands at twilight have the advantages of being independent of stratospheric temperature, little contaminated by tropospheric ozone and multiple scattering, and of permitting observations even in winter at the polar circle. SAOZ instruments have been installed since 1988 at several stations in the Antarctic and the Arctic. More than four years data at Dumont d'Urville in Terre Adelie (67 deg S) are now available. The station is generally located at the edge of the vortex in spring and therefore the ozone hole is seen there only occasionally. The lowest values (140 DU) were reported in early October 1991. According to these first regular observations throughout the whole winter ozone seems to increase in late autumn and winter. Its decay does not start before the end of August. Although of smaller amplitude than with the previous version five data, the ratio between the groundbased and satellite/TOMS measurements displays a systematic seasonal variation correlated partly to the sun zenith angle of observations from orbit and partly to the temperature of the stratosphere. Since ground-based measurements are always made at 90 deg SZA, the SZA dependence must come from the satellite data interpretation (TOMS observations are between 43 to 88 deg SZA). The temperature dependence could be partly due to variations of ozone absorption cross-sections in the ultraviolet used by the satellite spectrometer, and partly to a systematic seasonal cycle of the air mass factor use in the interpretation of the ground based observations. However, the last contribution appears to be too small to compensate the ozone increase in winter reported by SAOZ, which is then real.

Goutail, F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Initial Strategic Conflict Management of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new transportation concept that enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. To achieve the high level of operational density and complexity desired by the UAM community, an airspace system that allows UAM operators to readily access and operate safely and efficiently in the airspace is needed. This airspace system will require air traffic management designed to reduce the risk of conflicts and loss of separation between UAM flights. In general, strategic conflict management is considered as the first layer of conflict management for safe flight operations to condition the traffic to reduce the need for airborne separation provision, the second layer of conflict management. Demand Capacity Balancing (DCB) is one of the concept components to achieve strategic conflict management. DCB strategically evaluates traffic demand and resource capacities to allow UAM operators to determine when, where and how they operate, while mitigating conflicting needs for airspace and vertiport capacity. DCB can be applied whenever UAM demand exceeds the capacity in airspace or at vertiports. As the UAM ecosystem evolves with advanced technologies and matured operational procedures, more complicated conflict management will likely be needed. In the current UAM ‘Concept of Operation (ConOps) 1.0’ operational stage defined by FAA, however, it will be meaningful to explore the demand capacity balancing at vertiports only, as an initial strategic conflict management approach for UAM operations because vertiport capacity seems to be a bottleneck of UAM traffic. For this research, we developed a demand-capacity imbalance detection and resolution service for UAM. This DCB service identifies the demand from operators and compares the demand to a given capacity at the shared resources (i.e., vertiports) over the upcoming time horizon which is divided into time bins having a constant interval. When a new flight plan is submitted, the algorithm embedded in the DCB service checks the available time bins based on the desired departure time and estimated arrival time at origin and destination vertiports, respectively. If the time bins for the originally desired times are already occupied by other flights (i.e., demand is at or above capacity), the algorithm finds the next available time bins for takeoff and landing and shifts the conflicting departure time to the earliest time that satisfies the capacity constraints at both origin and destination vertiports. The details of the algorithm will be described in the final manuscript. Figure 1 shows that the proposed DCB algorithm works well for a sample traffic scenario. In this example, a total of 144 flights, split between two operators, are planned over 2 hours, traveling 10 routes between five vertiports. In the heatmaps, the horizontal axis shows 12 time bins where each bin represents a 12-minute interval, and the vertical axis shows five vertiports. The number in each cell shows the number of operations, counting both departures and arrivals, at a specific vertiport in each time bin. For the given capacity of 2 operations/vertiport/bin, Figure 1 shows that the original demand sometimes exceeds the capacity, but the modified demand is reduced to the given capacity after resolving demand-capacity imbalances. When UAM flights are operated, it is expected that many practical issues would arise in the federated system architecture with multiple operators. UAM operators may experience a time synchronization issue due to communication delay between operator and vehicle. UAM vehicles would fly at different flight speeds, depending on vehicle models. Actual departure and arrival times can have large variations, compared to the schedule. The lead time from flight plan submission to desired departure time can vary by service type (e.g., regular shuttle service vs. on-demand service). Using the proposed DCB algorithm, we also investigated how the actual flight schedule and DCB performance are affected by these uncertainties such as unsynchronized times between operators, flight speed differences, lead time differences, and departure time errors. The final manuscript will include the background of this research work, the description of the DCB algorithm and its use cases with traffic scenarios. It will also provide the analytical results about the impact of various uncertainties that can occur in actual UAM operations on the DCB at vertiports, in terms of demand distribution changes, number of simultaneous operations, and delay propagation.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2021

Error Propagation in Microwave Soil Moisture and Vegetation Optical Depth Retrievals

Satellite soil moisture and vegetation optical depth (VOD; related to the total vegetation water mass per unit area) are increasingly being used to study water relations in the soil-plant continuum across the globe. However, soil moisture and VOD are typically jointly estimated, where errors in the optimization approach can cause compensation between both variables and confound such studies. It is thus critical to quantify how satellite microwave measurement errors propagate into soil moisture and VOD. Such a study is especially important for VOD given limited investigations of whether VOD reflects in-situ plant physiology. Furthermore, despite new approaches that constrain (or regularize) VOD dynamics to reduce soil moisture errors, there is limited study of whether regularization reduces VOD errors without obscuring true vegetation temporal dynamics. Here, we find that, across the globe, VOD is less robust to measurement error (more difficult for optimization methods to find the true solution) than soil moisture in their joint estimation. However, a moderate degree of regularization (via time-constrained VOD) reduces errors in VOD to a greater degree than soil moisture and reduces spurious soil moisture-VOD coupling. Furthermore, despite constraining VOD time dynamics, regularized VOD variations on sub-weekly scales are both closer to simulated true VOD time series and have global VOD post-rainfall responses with reduced error signatures compared to VOD retrievals without regularization. Ultimately, we recommend moderately regularized VOD for use in large scale studies of soil-plant water relations because it suppresses noise and spurious soil moisture-VOD coupling without removing the physical signal.

Vegetation optical depth↗

NASA NTRS1999

Apollo 17 Soil Characterization for Reflectance Spectroscopy

It is the fine fractions that dominate the observed spectral signatures of bulk lunar soil, and the next to the smallest size fractions are the most similar to the overall properties of the bulk soil. Thus, our Lunar Soil Characterization Consortium has concentrated on understanding the inter-relations of compositional, mineralogical, and optical properties of the <45-micron size fraction and its component sizes (20-44 micron, 10-20 micron, and <10 micron size fractions). To be able to generalize our results beyond the particular sample set studied, it is necessary to quantitatively identify the observed effects of space weathering and evaluate the processes involved. For this, it is necessary to know the chemistry of each size fraction, modal abundances of each phase, average compositions of the minerals and glasses, I(sub s)/FeO values, reflectance spectra, and the physical makeup of the individual particles and their patinas. This characterization includes the important dissection of the pyroxene minerals into four separate populations, with data on both modes and average chemical compositions. Armed with such data, it should be possible to effectively isolate spectral effects of space weathering from spectral properties related to mineral and glass chemistry. Four mare soils from the Apollo 17 site were selected for characterization based upon similarities in bulk composition and their contrasting maturities, ranging from immature to submature to mature. The methodology of our characterization has been discussed previously. Results of the Apollo 17 mare soils, outlined herein, are being prepared for publication in MAPS. As shown, with decreasing grain size, the agglutinitic (impact) glass content profoundly increases. This is the most impressive change for the mare soils. In several soils we have examined, there is an over two-fold increase in the agglutinitic glass contents between the 90-150- micron and the 10-20-micron size fractions. Accompanying this increase in agglutinitic glass is a definite decrease in pyroxenes and to lesser extents, the oxides (ilmenite), volcanic glass, and olivine. Unexpectedly, however, the absolute plagioclase abundances stay relatively constant throughout the different grain sizes, although the abundance of plagioclase relative to the mafic minerals increases with decreasing particle size. These soils were chosen for study based upon their similarities in FeO and Ti02 content, allowing for direct comparisons between evolutions of chemistry between size fractions and among different maturities of soils. The bulk chemistry of these fractions was determined by EMP analyses of fused glass beads. In contrast to the systematic variations in bulk chemistry discussed below, the relatively uniform composition of agglutinitic glass with grain size and soil maturity is illustrated. The composition of the bulk fraction of each size fraction becomes more feldspathic with increasing maturity, with the effect being most pronounced for the finest fractions. The composition of the agglutinitic glass, however, is relatively invariant and more feldspathic (i.e., rich in Al2O3) than even the <10-micron fraction. This relation not only strengthens the "fusion of the finest fraction" (F(sup 3)) hypothesis, but also highlights the important role of plagioclase in the formation of agglutinitic glass. With decreasing grain size, FeO, MgO, and TiO2 contents decrease, whereas CaO, Na2O, and Al2O3 (plag components) increase for all soils. These chemical variations would appear to be coupled with the significant increase in agglutinitic glass and decrease in oxide (ilmenite),pyroxene, and volcanic glass. These changes in chemistry do not appear to be due to distinct changes in the compositions of individual phases but to their abundances. Values of I(sub s)/FeO increase with decreasing grain size, even though the bulk FeO contents decrease. That is, the percentage of the total Fe that is present as nanophase Fe(sup O) has increased substantially in the smaller size fraction. Note that the increase in nanophase FeO in smaller size fractions is significantly greater than the increase in agglutinitic glass content, with its single-domain FeO component. This would seem to indicate that at least some of the FeO is surface correlated. To illustrate this effect, if it is assumed that the nanophase FeO is entirely surface correlated, then equal masses of 15-micron and 6-micron spheres should have about 3x as much FeO in the finer fraction. The recent findings of Kelleret al. of the major role of vapor-deposited, nanophase FeO-containing patinas on most soil particles is a major breakthrough in our understanding of the distribution of FeO within agglutinitic glass and upon grain surfaces. Bidirectional reflectance spectra for a representative Apollo 17 soil (70181) are shown. The size separates all have similar albedo in the blue and follow a regular sequence in which the continuum slope increases, ferrous bands weaken, and albedo, increases with decreasing particle size. The bulk <45-micron soil is typically close to the 10-20 micron spectrum. It is important to note that although the finest fraction (<10 micron) is close in composition to the abundant agglutinitic glass in each size fraction, this size fraction is relatively featureless and does not dominate the spectrum of the bulk <45-micron soil. It has long been suspected that agglutinitic glass, to a large extent, is the product of melting of the finest fraction of the soils, with a dominance of plagioclase. Given the low abundance of pyroxene in the finest fractions of each soil the source of the FeO in these Apollo 17 agglutinitic glasses is not fully identified. We suspect the abundant volcanic glass in these samples may be a significant contributor and this hypothesis will be tested with the suite under study from other Apollo sites.

Taylor, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Constraining Stellar Parameters and Atmospheric Dynamics of the Carbon AGB star V Oph

Molecules and dust produced by the atmospheres of cool evolved stars contribute to a significant amount of the total material found in the interstellar medium. To understand the mechanism behind the mass loss of these stars, it is of pivotal importance to investigate the structure and dynamics of their atmospheres. Our goal is to verify if the extended molecular and dust layers of the carbon-rich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star V Oph, and their time variations, can be explained by dust-driven winds triggered by stellar pulsation alone, or if other mechanisms are in play. We model V Oph mid-infrared interferometric VLTI-MIDI data (8–13 μm), at phases 0.18, 0.49, and 0.65, together with literature photometric data, using the latest-generation self-consistent dynamic atmosphere models for carbon-rich stars: DARWIN. We determine the fundamental stellar parameters: T(eff) = 2600 K, L(bol) = 3585 L⊙, M = 1.5 M⊙, C/O = 1.35, Mass flow rate= 2.50 x 10(exp -6) M⊙/yr. We calculate the stellar photospheric radii at the three phases: 479, 494, 448 R⊙; and the dust radii: 780, 853, 787 R⊙. The dynamic models can fairly explain the observed N-band visibility and spectra, although there is some discrepancy between the data and the models, which is discussed in the text. We discuss the possible causes of the temporal variations of the outer atmosphere, deriving an estimate of the magnetic field strength, and computing upper limits for the Alfvén waves velocity. In addition, using period–luminosity sequences, and interferometric modeling, we suggest V Oph as a candidate to be reclassified as a semi-regular star.

Gioia Rau↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗