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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗
DOE OSTI2026

Offline Maximizing Minimally Invasive Proper Orthogonal Decomposition for Reduced-Order Modeling of S n Radiation Transport

Deterministic solutions to the Sn radiation transport equation can be computationally expensive to calculate. Reduced-order modeling enables efficient approximation of the full-order model (FOM) solution. We propose a novel method for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of the S n radiation transport equation, offline maximizing minimally invasive (OMMI) proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). POD uses the method of snapshots to create a reduced-order basis for constructing an ROM. Minimally invasive POD leverages the sweep infrastructure existing in deterministic transport codes to create a POD-based ROM, even when infeasible by traditional methods. Offline maximizing minimally invasive proper orthogonal decomposition (OMMI-POD) extends minimally invasive POD by performing sweeps offline, therefore maximizing the potential speedup. OMMI-POD does so by creating a library of reduced systems from a training set. This library of reduced systems is then interpolated to provide a rapid approximate solution of the S n radiation transport equation. The model is evaluated on a set of test problems, achieving a low error with a 466 times speedup over the FOM. Also presented is a study of the effect of sampling method on the performance of OMMI-POD, specifically comparing naive uniform sampling to the more accurate and computationally expensive greedy sampling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2021

Human adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells from face and abdomen undergo replicative senescence and loss of genetic integrity after long-term culture

Body fat depots are heterogeneous concerning their embryonic origin, structure, exposure to environmental stressors, and availability. Thus, investigating adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (ASCs) from different sources is essential to standardization for future therapies. In vitro amplification is also critical because it may predispose cell senescence and mutations, reducing regenerative properties and safety. Here, we evaluated long-term culture of human facial ASCs (fASCs) and abdominal ASCs (aASCs) and showed that both met the criteria for MSCs characterization but presented differences in their immunophenotypic profile, and differentiation and clonogenic potentials. The abdominal tissue yielded more ASCs, and these had higher proliferative potential, but facial cells displayed fewer mitotic errors at higher passages. However, both cell types reduced clonal efficiency over time and entered replicative senescence around P12, as evaluated by progressive morphological alterations, reduced proliferative capacity, and SA-β-galactosidase expression. Loss of genetic integrity was detected by a higher proportion of cells showing nuclear alterations and γ-H2AX expression. Our findings indicate that the source of ASCs can substantially influence their phenotype and therefore should be carefully considered in future cell therapies, avoiding, however, long-term culture to ensure genetic stability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On The Jacobian of the ECEF J2 Gravitation Model

An Earth-centered, Earth-fixed (ECEF) inertial navigation system must compute the Jacobian of its employed gravitation model with respect to position while time-propagating the error covariance of the system. One commonly used gravitation model is the ‘J2 model’ which is a second-order truncation of the Earth’s spherical harmonic gravitation model. The J2 model is popular because it can quickly and efficiently be evaluated, and the truncation error is small: The ‘J3 term’ --- the third term in the spherical harmonic expansion --- is approximately 1000 times smaller than the J2 term.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A simple soil mass correction for a more accurate determination of soil carbon stock changes

Abstract Agricultural soils can act as a sink for large quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) but can also be sources of carbon to the atmosphere. The international standard for assessing SOC stock and measuring stock change stipulates fixed depth sampling to at least 30 cm. The tendency of bulk density (BD) to decrease with decreasing disturbance and increasing SOC concentration and the assumption of constant SOC and BD within this depth profile promotes error in the estimates of SOC stock. A hypothetical but realistic change in BD from 1.5 to 1.1 g cm −3 from successive fixed depth sampling to 30 cm underestimates SOC stock change by 17%. Significant effort has been made to evaluate and reduce this fixed depth error by using the equivalent soil mass (ESM) approach, but with limited adoption. We evaluate the error in SOC stock assessment and change generated from fixed depth measurements over time relative to the ESM approach and propose a correction that can be readily adopted under current sampling and analytical methods. Our approach provides a more accurate estimate of SOC stock accumulation or loss that will help incentivize management practice changes that reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture and further legitimize the accounting practices used by the emerging carbon market and organizations that have pledged to reduce their supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Experiment-based Distribution Level Performance Comparison among PMUs

This paper presents a experiment-based distribution level performance comparison among three Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). Several evaluation criteria, including the total vector error, the phase angle error, the frequency error, the rate of change of frequency, the response time, the settling time, the overshoot, and the algorithm window size, are selected to compare the static and dynamic performances of the PMUs under steady state and step response test conditions. In order to have a more realistic test environment, a test is setup in which PMUs under evaluation have exactly the same input signals. The quantitative experiment result analysis gives an end-user guideline to the PMU selection regarding distribution level applications.

Yin, He↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating wind profiles in a numerical weather prediction model with Doppler lidar

We use Doppler lidar wind profiles from six locations around the globe to evaluate the wind profile forecasts in the boundary layer generated by the operational global Integrated Forecast System (IFS) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The six locations selected cover a variety of surfaces with different characteristics (rural, marine, mountainous urban, and coastal urban). We first validated the Doppler lidar observations at four locations by comparison with co-located radiosonde profiles to ensure that the Doppler lidar observations were of sufficient quality. The two observation types agree well, with the mean absolute error (MAE) in wind speed almost always less than 1 m s –1 . Large deviations in the wind direction were usually only seen for low wind speeds and are due to the wind direction uncertainty increasing rapidly as the wind speed tends to zero. Time–height composites of the wind evaluation with 1 h resolution were generated, and evaluation of the model winds showed that the IFS model performs best over marine and coastal locations, where the mean absolute wind vector error was usually less than 3 m s –1 at all heights within the boundary layer. Larger errors were seen in locations where the surface was more complex, especially in the wind direction. For example, in Granada, which is near a high mountain range, the IFS model failed to capture a commonly occurring mountain breeze, which is highly dependent on the sub-grid-size terrain features that are not resolved by the model. The uncertainty in the wind forecasts increased with forecast lead time, but no increase in the bias was seen. At one location, we conditionally performed the wind evaluation based on the presence or absence of a low-level jet diagnosed from the Doppler lidar observations. The model was able to reproduce the presence of the low-level jet, but the wind speed maximum was about 2 m s –1 lower than observed. This is attributed to the effective vertical resolution of the model being too coarse to create the strong gradients in wind speed observed. Our results show that Doppler lidar is a suitable instrument for evaluating the boundary layer wind profiles in atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining the tilt of the Raman laser beam using an optical method for atom gravimeters

The tilt of a Raman laser beam is a major systematic error in precision gravity measurement using atom interferometry. The conventional approach to evaluating this tilt error involves modulating the direction of the Raman laser beam and conducting time-consuming gravity measurements to identify the error minimum. In this work, we demonstrate a method to expediently determine the tilt of the Raman laser beam by transforming the tilt angle measurement into characterization of parallelism, which integrates the optical method of aligning the laser direction, commonly used in freely falling corner-cube gravimeters, into an atom gravimeter. A position-sensing detector (PSD) is utilized to quantitatively characterize the parallelism between the test beam and the reference beam, thus measuring the tilt precisely and rapidly. After carefully positioning the PSD and calibrating the relationship between the distance measured by the PSD and the tilt angle measured by the tiltmeter, we achieved a statistical uncertainty of less than 30 µrad in the tilt measurement. Furthermore, we compared the results obtained through this optical method with those from the conventional tilt modulation method for gravity measurement. The comparison validates that our optical method can achieve tilt determination with an accuracy level of better than 200 µrad, corresponding to a systematic error of 20 µGal in g measurement. This work has practical implications for real-world applications of atom gravimeters.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Pulsar-Inspired Timing Framework for Power System: Optimization and Performance Evaluation

Due to their excellent stability, neutron pulsar stars are considered promising candidate timing sources for power system applications. However, the complexity of pulsar signals necessitates advanced processing algorithms to provide accurate timing references. This paper presents the foundational framework for pulsar signal processing, serving as the basis for further optimization. To enhance the timing accuracy and computation efficiency in pulsar period searches, three algorithms are proposed as the initial optimization step: wavelet de-noising, fast folding, and cross-correlation for profile evaluation. Wavelet de-noising improves signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) by 36%–70%. Fast folding reduces computation time from hundreds of seconds to mere milliseconds. Cross-correlation works better than traditional SNR-based methods by effectively identifying the optimal period. The performance of the proposed algorithms is evaluated using observation data from telescopes. Together, these algorithms significantly improve pulsar timing performance, reducing the error of the Pulse Per Second (PPS) signal from hundreds to tens of microseconds.

Wu, Ori [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326723410)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗
DOE OSTI2021

CAN-D: A Modular Four-Step Pipeline for Comprehensively Decoding Controller Area Network Data

Controller area networks (CANs) are a broadcast protocol for real-time communication of critical vehicle subsystems. Original equipment manufacturers of passenger vehicles hold secret their mappings of CAN data to vehicle signals, and these definitions vary according to make, model, and year. Without these mappings, the wealth of real-time vehicle information hidden in the CAN packets is uninterpretable, severely impeding vehicle-related research, including CAN cybersecurity and privacy studies, aftermarket tuning, efficiency and performance monitoring, and fault diagnosis to name a few. Guided by the four-part CAN signal definition, we present CAN-D (CAN-Decoder), a modular, four-step pipeline for identifying each signal's boundaries (start bit and length), endianness (byte ordering), signedness (bit-to-integer encoding), and by leveraging diagnostic standards, augmenting a subset of the extracted signals with meaningful, physical interpretation. En route to CAN-D, we provide a comprehensive review of the CAN signal reverse engineering research. All previous methods ignore endianness and signedness, rendering them incapable of decoding many standard CAN signal definitions. Incorporating endianness grows the search space from 128 to 4.72E21 signal tokenizations and introduces a web of changing dependencies. In response, we formulate, formally analyze, and provide an efficient solution to an optimization problem, allowing identification of the optimal set of signal boundaries and byte orderings. In addition, we provide two novel, state-of-the-art signal boundary classifiers—both of which are superior to previous approaches in precision and recall in three different test scenarios—and the first signedness classification algorithm, which exhibits a $>$ 97% F-score. Altogether, CAN-D is the only solution with the potential to extract any CAN signal that is also the state of the art. In evaluation on 10 vehicles of different makes, CAN-D's average $\ell ^1$ error is five times better (81% less) than all previous methods and exhibits lower average error, even when considering only signals that meet prior methods’ assumptions. Finally, CAN-D is implemented in lightweight hardware, allowing for an on-board diagnostic (OBD-II) plugin for real-time in-vehicle CAN decoding.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient and generalizable nested Fourier-DeepONet for three-dimensional geological carbon sequestration

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) involves injecting CO2 into subsurface geological formationsfor permanent storage. Numerical simulations could guide decisions in GCS projects by predictingCO 2 migration pathways and the pressure distribution in storage formation. However, these simula-tions are often computationally expensive due to highly coupled physics and large spatial-temporalsimulation domains. Surrogate modelling with data-driven machine learning has become a promis-ing alternative to accelerate physics-based simulations. Among these, the Fourier neural operator(FNO) has been applied to three-dimensional synthetic subsurface models. Despite its good accuracyin simulating CO 2 plume migration, it requires large computational resources in training and alsolacks generalizability. Here, to further improve performance, we have developed a nested Fourier-DeepONet by combining the expressiveness of the FNO with the modularity of a deep operatornetwork (DeepONet). This new framework is twice as efficient as a nested FNO for training and has atleast 80% lower GPU memory requirement due to its flexibility to treat temporal coordinates sepa-rately. These performance improvements are achieved without compromising prediction accuracy.In addition, the generalization and extrapolation ability of nested Fourier-DeepONet beyond thetraining range has been thoroughly evaluated. Nested Fourier-DeepONet outperformed the nestedFNO for extrapolation in time with more than 50% reduced error. It also exhibited good extrapolationaccuracy beyond the training range in terms of reservoir properties, number of wells, and injectionrate.

Lee, Jonathan E. [Department of Chemical and Envir↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multilevel Conditional Disturbance Rejection Control for Satellite Attitude Tracking

Recently, the conditional disturbance rejection controller (CDRC) was proposed to improve control performance by leveraging disturbances that have beneficial effects on the system. However, it only considers disturbances acting on the state variable directly influenced by them. Although fast convergence of this state can be achieved with the CDRC, it may unintentionally affect the convergence of the output (i.e., the primary state). Here, in this article, a multilevel CDRC is proposed to enhance satellite attitude control performance by accounting for the effect of disturbances on both attitude (output) and angular velocity. The extended state observer is employed to estimate the lumped disturbance, including the modeling errors and external disturbances. Then, a backstepping-based controller with the multilevel disturbance rejection law (ML-DRL) is designed for attitude tracking. The ML-DRL is developed to improve the control performance by using a disturbance with a damping effect on both attitude and velocity. Faster convergence of attitude and velocity can be achieved by conditionally compensating for the disturbance. The stability of the proposed control method is analyzed by demonstrating that the errors are bounded as time tends to infinity. The attitude control performance of the proposed method is evaluated through numerical examples conducted using the MATLAB/Simulink Multibody tool.

Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing Accuracy-Speedup Tradeoff in Machine Learning Surrogates for Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The performance promise of machine learning surrogates of molecular dynamics simulations of soft materials is significant but generally comes at the cost of acquiring large training datasets to learn the complex relationships between input soft material attributes and output properties. Under the constraint of limited high-performance computing resources, optimizing the size of the training datasets becomes paramount. Using an artificial neural network based surrogate for molecular dynamics simulations of confined electrolytes, we explore the tradeoff between surrogate accuracy and computational gains. Accuracy is assessed by computing the root-mean-square errors between the surrogate predictions and the ground truth results obtained via molecular dynamics simulations. The computational performance is judged by evaluating the speedup which incorporates the training dataset creation time. Improvement in accuracy occurs with a loss of speedup, which scales as the inverse of the training dataset size. Furthermore, the link between surrogate generalizability and the accuracy-speedup tradeoff is assessed by examining the errors incurred in surrogate predictions on unseen, interpolated input variables and developing a net speedup metric to capture the associated gains.

Anions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive job and resource management for the growing quantum cloud

As the popularity of quantum computing continues to grow, efficient quantum machine access over the cloud is critical to both academic and industry researchers across the globe. And as cloud quantum computing demands increase exponentially, the analysis of resource consumption and execution characteristics are key to efficient management of jobs and resources at both the vendor-end as well as the client-end. While the analysis and optimization of job / resource consumption and management are popular in the classical HPC domain, it is severely lacking for more nascent technology like quantum computing.This paper proposes optimized adaptive job scheduling to the quantum cloud taking note of primary characteristics such as queuing times and fidelity trends across machines, as well as other characteristics such as quality of service guarantees and machine calibration constraints. Key components of the proposal include a) a prediction model which predicts fidelity trends across machine based on compiled circuit features such as circuit depth and different forms of errors, as well as b) queuing time prediction for each machine based on execution time estimations. Altogether, this proposal is evaluated on simulated IBM machines across a diverse set of quantum applications and system loading scenarios, and is able to reduce wait times by over 3x and improve fidelity by over 40% on specific usecases, when compared to traditional job schedulers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗