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NASA NTRS1991

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Crane, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Identification of multivariable high performance turbofan engine dynamics from closed loop data

The multivariable instrumental variable/approximate maximum likelihood (IV/AML) method or recursive time-series analysis is used to identify the multivariable (four inputs-three outputs) dynamics of the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine. A detailed nonlinear engine simulation is used to determine linear engine model structures and parameters at an operating point using open loop data. Also, the IV/AML method is used in a direct identification mode to identify models from actual closed loop engine test data. Models identified from simulated and test data are compared to determine a final model structure and parameterization that can predict engine response for a wide class of inputs. The ability of the IV/AML algorithm to identify useful dynamic models from engine test data is assessed.

Merrill, W.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Identification of multivariable high performance turbofan engine dynamics from closed loop data

The multivariable instrumental variable/approximate maximum likelihood (IV/AML) method of recursive time-series analysis is used to identify the multivariable (four inputs-three outputs) dynamics of the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine. A detailed nonlinear engine simulation is used to determine linear engine model structures and parameters at an operating point using open loop data. Also, the IV/AML method is used in a direct identification made to identify models from actual closed loop engine test data. Models identified from simulated and test data are compared to determine a final model structure and parameterization that can predict engine response for a wide class of inputs. The ability of the IV/AML algorithm to identify useful dynamic models from engine test data is assessed. Previously announced in STAR as N82-20339

Merrill, W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An introduction to chaotic and random time series analysis

The origin of chaotic behavior and the relation of chaos to randomness are explained. Two mathematical results are described: (1) a representation theorem guarantees the existence of a specific time-domain model for chaos and addresses the relation between chaotic, random, and strictly deterministic processes; (2) a theorem assures that information on the behavior of a physical system in its complete state space can be extracted from time-series data on a single observable. Focus is placed on an important connection between the dynamical state space and an observable time series. These two results lead to a practical deconvolution technique combining standard random process modeling methods with new embedded techniques.

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The seasonal circulation of the upper ocean in the Bay of Bengal

The present analysis of results generated by a multilayer, adiabatic, monthly mean wind-driven numerical model of the upper Indian Ocean indicates that its simulated northeastern currents are in general agreement with observations and interpretations. Attention is given to the large anticyclonic flow during Northern Hemisphere winter. The model's layer-thickness reveals the propagation of Kelvin waves along the coast, travelling the entire perimeter of the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal; this wave excites westward-propagating Rossby waves into the bay's interior. A time-series analysis of transport calculations yields peaks in the 20-30 day and 50-60 day ranges which are unlikely to have been directly forced by the applied stress.

Potemra, James T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The persistent coma of Comet P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1

Time-series photometry of Comet P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 in both 1987 and 1988 shows that this comet is continually active despite its large heliocentric distance. The observed activity, upon which the famous outbursts of this comet are superposed, may be driven by the sublimation of crystalline water ice at the nucleus surface. A simple model which accounts for both the continuous activity and the sporadic outbursts is suggested.

Jewitt, David↗

NASA NTRS1990

Rationalization of Comet Halley's periods

The sense of long axis orientation of Comet Halley during the Vega 1 encounter must be reversed from that deduced by Sagdeev et al. (1986) in order to harmonize the comet nucleus' Vega/Giotto-observed orientations with periodicities extracted from time-series brightness data. It is also demonstrated that Vega/Giotto observations can be satisfied by either a 2.2- or 3.7-day long-axis free precession period. A novel Fourier algorithm is used to reanalyze five independent data sets; strong evidence is adduced for periods harmonically related to a 7.4-day period. The preferred candidate models for Halley's nuclear rotation are characterized by a long-axis precession period of 3.7 days.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Studies of Greenland using the SEASAT scatterometer

We have used Ku-band (14.6 GHz) Seasat scatterometer (SASS) measurements to study changes in the backscatter of the Greenland ice sheet in response to seasonal changes in the surface and subsurface characteristics of the snow and glacial ice. To overcome the limitations imposed by the 50 km resolution of the SASS measurement, a resolution enhancement algorithm was used to generate 10 km resolution images of the backscatter response. To generate the images, the observed sigma(sup 0) (in dB) was modeled as a linear function of incidence angle theta, i.e., sigma(sup 0)(theta) = A + B(theta - 40 degrees) where theta epsilon (23 degrees, 55 degrees). The variable A can be thought of as the 'incidence angle-normalized sigma(sup 0)', while the gradient B describes the incidence angle dependence of sigma(sup 0). A time-series (one image every two weeks) of vertical and horizontally-polarized A and B was generated spanning a 100 day period between Julian Dates 180 and 280 (i.e. 29 June and 7 October) in 1978. This time series dramatically shows the effects of the summer melt and a clear transition with fall cooling and snowfall towards a typical winter scattering situation. The images also clearly delineate a number of principal snow and ice 'facies' which are identifiable on the surface.

Long, David G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A laboratory study of friction-velocity estimates from scatterometry - Low and high regimes

Measurements from scatterometers pointing at wind-waves in three large wave tanks are examined to study fetch effects and the correlation with wind friction velocity. Time-series measurements were made at 13, 35, and 95 m with a Ka-band scatterometer aimed upwind at 30 deg incidence angle and vertical polarization. Average normalized radar cross-section (sigma-0) values from all fetches follow a common trend for sigma-0 as a function of wind friction velocity, so the fetch dependence is negligible. An empirical power-law model yields a high correlation between sigma-0 and wind friction velocity, but, because systematic anomalies arise, we reexamine a turbulence approach that delineates low and high regimes with a transition at a wind friction velocity of approximately 25 cm/s. Using this criteria, the data are well represented by a two-section power-law relationship between sigma-0 and wind friction velocity.

Bliven, L. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Using image area to control CCD systematic errors in spaceborne photometric and astrometric time-series measurements

The effect of some systematic errors for high-precision time-series spaceborne photometry and astrometry has been investigated with a CCD as the detector. The 'pixelization' of the images causes systematic error in astrometric measurements. It is shown that this pixelization noise scales as image radius r exp -3/2. Subpixel response gradients, not correctable by the 'flat field', and in conjunction with telescope pointing jitter, introduce further photometric and astrometric errors. Subpixel gradients are modeled using observed properties of real flat fields. These errors can be controlled by having an image span enough pixels. Large images are also favored by CCD dynamic range considerations. However, magnified stellar images can overlap, thus introducing another source of systematic error. An optimum image size is therefore a compromise between these competing factors.

Buffington, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1992

Whole Earth Telescope observations of V471 Tauri - The nature of the white dwarf variations

Time-series photometric observations of the binary star V471 Tauri were conducted using the Whole Earth Telescope observing network. The purpose was to determine the mechanism responsible for causing the 555 and 277 s periodic luminosity variations exhibited by the white dwarf in this binary. Previous observers have proposed that either g-mode pulsations or rotation of an accreting magnetic white dwarf could cause the variations, but were unable to decide which was the correct model. The present observations have answered this question. Learning the cause of the white dwarf variations has been possible because of the discovery of a periodic signal at 562 s in the Johnson U-band flux of the binary. By identifying this signal as reprocessed radiation and using its phase to infer the phase of the shorter wavelength radiation which produces it, made it possible to compare the phase of the 555 s U-band variations to the phase of the X-ray variations. It was found that U-band maximum coincides with X-ray minimum. From this result it was concluded that the magnetic rotator model accurately describes the variations observed, but that models involving g-mode pulsations do not.

Clemens, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Primary production estimates from recordings of solar-stimulated fluorescence in the equatorial Pacific at 150 deg W

Biological, optical, and hydrographical data were collected on the WEC88 cruise along 150 deg W and during a 6-day time-series station on the equator during February/March 1988. This area was characterized by a subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM), located at 50-70 m depth at the equator and descending down to 120-125 m at the north and south end of the transect. Highest primary production rates were near-surface and confined to the equatorial region and stations between 7 deg and 11 deg N. To determine the relationship between solar-stimulated fluorescence (centered at 683 nm wavelength) and primary production, a production-fluorescence model based on phytoplankton physiology and marine optics is described. Results of model calculations predict that there is a linear relation between production and fluorescence. A comparison between morning and midday measurements of the production-fluorescence relation showed that there was some difference between the two, whereas evening measurements, on the other hand, were distinctly different from the morning/midday ones. This seems to suggest that diurnal variations contribute significantly to variability in the quantum yield of photochemical processes. The ratio of the quantum yield of photosynthesis to the quantum yield of fluorescence ranged between 0.24 and 0.44 molC/Ein for all stations. The highest value for this ratio occurred at the equatorial stations, indicating that latitudinal variability could have an effect on the production-fluorescence relation.

Stegmann, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Infrared helioseismology - Detection of the chromospheric mode

Time-series observations of an infrared solar OH absorption line profile have been obtained on two consecutive days using a laser heterodyne spectrometer to view a 2 arcsec portion of the quiet sun at disk center. A power spectrum of the line center velocity shows the well-known photospheric p-mode oscillations very prominently, but also shows a second feature near 4.3 mHz. A power spectrum of the line intensity shows only the 4.3 mHz feature, which is identified as the fundamental p-mode resonance of the solar chromosphere. The frequency of the mode is observed to be in substantial agreement with the eigenfrequency of current chromospheric models. A time series of two beam difference measurements shows that the mode is present only for horizontal wavelengths greater than 19 Mm. The period of a chromospheric p-mode resonance is directly related to the sound travel time across the chromosphere, which depends on the chromospheric temperature and geometric height. Thus, detection of this resonance will provide an important new constraint on chromospheric models.

Deming, D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Specification of parameters for development of a spatial database for drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel

Parameters were described for spatial database to facilitate drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel. The proposed system, referred to as the African Drought and Famine Information System (ADFIS) is ultimately recommended for implementation with the NASA/FEMA Spatial Analysis and Modeling System (SAMS), a GIS/Dymanic Modeling software package, currently under development. SAMS is derived from FEMA'S Integration Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS) and the Pacific Northwest Laborotory's/Engineering Topographic Laboratory's Airland Battlefield Environment (ALBE) GIS. SAMS is primarily intended for disaster planning and resource management applications with the developing countries. Sources of data for the system would include the Developing Economics Branch of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, the World Bank, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine's Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) Project, the USAID's Foreign Disaster Assistance Section, the World Resources Institute, the World Meterological Institute, the USGS, the UNFAO, UNICEF, and the United Nations Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO). Satellite imagery would include decadal AVHRR imagery and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from 1981 to the present for the African continent and selected Landsat scenes for the Sudan pilot study. The system is initially conceived for the MicroVAX 2/GPX, running VMS. To facilitate comparative analysis, a global time-series database (1950 to 1987) is included for a basic set of 125 socio-economic variables per country per year. A more detailed database for the Sahelian countries includes soil type, water resources, agricultural production, agricultural import and export, food aid, and consumption. A pilot dataset for the Sudan with over 2,500 variables from the World Bank's ANDREX system, also includes epidemiological data on incidence of kwashiorkor, marasmus, other nutritional deficiencies, and synergistically-related infectious diseases.

Rochon, Gilbert L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Turbulence measurements in a swirling confined jet flowfield using a triple hot-wire probe

An axisymmetric swirling confined jet flowfield, similar to that encountered in gas turbine combustors was investigated using a triple hot-wire probe. The raw data from the three sensors were digitized using ADC's and stored on a Tektronix 4051 computer. The data were further reduced on the computer to obtain time-series for the three instantaneous velocity components in the flowfield. The time-mean velocities and the turbulence quantities were deduced. Qualification experiments were performed and where possible results compared with independent measurements. The major qualification experiments involved measurements performed in a non-swirling flow compared with conventional X-wire measurements. In the swirling flowfield, advantages of the triple wire technique over the previously used multi-position single hot-wire method are noted. The measurements obtained provide a data base with which the predictions of turbulence models in a recirculating swirling flowfield can be evaluated.

Janjua, S. I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Low-dimensional chaos in magnetospheric activity from AE time series

The magnetospheric response to the solar-wind input, as represented by the time-series measurements of the auroral electrojet (AE) index, has been examined using phase-space reconstruction techniques. The system was found to behave as a low-dimensional chaotic system with a fractal dimension of 3.6 and has Kolmogorov entropy less than 0.2/min. These indicate that the dynamics of the system can be adequately described by four independent variables, and that the corresponding intrinsic time scale is of the order of 5 min. The relevance of the results to magnetospheric modeling is discussed.

Vassiliadis, D. V.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Navier-Stokes computations of cavity aeroacoustics with suppression devices

Effectiveness of two devices to suppress the cavity acoustics was computationally investigated. Two dimensional, computational simulations were performed for the transonic, turbulent flows past a cavity, which was first equipped with a rear face ramp and then with a spoiler. The Reynolds-averaged, unsteady, compressible, full Navier-Stokes equations were solved time accurately by a second-order accurate, implicit, upwind, finite-volume method. The effect of turbulence was included through a Baldwin-Lomax model with modifications for the multiple-wall effects and for the highly vortical flow with a shear layer. The results included instantaneous and time-averaged flow properties, and time-series analyses of the pressure inside the cavity, which compared favorably with the available experimental data. These results were also contrasted with the computed aeroacoustics of the same cavity (length-to-depth ratio of 4.5), but without a device, to demonstrate the suppression effectiveness.

Baysal, Oktay↗

NASA NTRS1992

Forced unsteady deceleration of a turbulent boundary layer from a temporal perspective

The behavior of a turbulent boundary layer which has been subjected to a local ramp-like deceleration in the external velocity field, which leads to forced separation, has been studied experimentally. The data of this study are re-interpreted in light of more recent findings concerning the temporal nature of boundary layer turbulence in the presence of forced unsteady shear. In particular, the robustness of the near-wall turbulent motions to organized deformation is recognized. Their resilence during unsteady shearing action promotes continued efficient turbulent mixing and rapid redistribution of turbulent kinetic energy during forced transients. In aerodynamic problems, the rapid nature of the adjustment of the turbulence field to a new temporal boundary condition necessitates equally rapid remedial measures to be taken if means of control/prevention of forced unsteady separation are to be deployed to maximum effect. This requirement suggests exploration of the use of simple, real-time statistical forecasting techniques, based upon time-series analysis of easily-measurable features of the flow, to help assure timely deployment of mechanisms of boundary-layer control. This paper focuses upon the nature of turbulence in boundary layers undergoing forced deceleration which would lead to separation. A preliminary form of a forecasting model is presented and evaluated. Using observations of the previous two large eddies passing a detector, it forecasts the behavior of the future large eddy rather well.

Brereton, G. J.↗