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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty

Probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) is modeled for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems in which one or more WLs or SLs could potentially degrade into a precursor condition to link failure that will be followed by an actual link failure after some amount of elapsed time. The descriptor loss of assured safety (LOAS) is used because failure of the WL system places the entire system in an inoperable configuration while failure of the SL system before failure of the WL system, although undesirable, does not necessarily result in an unintended operation of the entire system. Thus, safety is “assured” by failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system. Here, the following topics are considered: (i) Definition of precursor occurrence time cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for individual WLs and SLs, (ii) Formal representation, approximation and illustration of PLOAS with (a) constant delay times, (b) aleatory uncertainty in delay times, and (c) delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for link failure precursors, and (iii) Procedures for the verification of PLOAS calculations for the three indicated definitions of delayed link failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

Availability and mean time between failures of redundant systems with random maintenance of subsystems

It is shown how the availability and MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) of a redundant system with subsystems maintenanced at the points of so-called stationary renewal processes can be determined from the distributions of the intervals between maintenance actions and of the failure-free operating intervals of the subsystems. The results make it possible, for example, to determine the frequency and duration of hidden failure states in computers which are incidentally corrected during the repair of observed failures.

Schneeweiss, W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fault management for the Space Station Freedom control center

This paper describes model based reasoning fault isolation in complex systems using automated digraph analysis. It discusses the use of the digraph representation as the paradigm for modeling physical systems and a method for executing these failure models to provide real-time failure analysis. It also discusses the generality, ease of development and maintenance, complexity management, and susceptibility to verification and validation of digraph failure models. It specifically describes how a NASA-developed digraph evaluation tool and an automated process working with that tool can identify failures in a monitored system when supplied with one or more fault indications. This approach is well suited to commercial applications of real-time failure analysis in complex systems because it is both powerful and cost effective.

Clark, Colin↗
NASA NTRS2009

New Method for Updating Mean Time Between Failure for ISS Orbital Replaceable Units Consultation Report

A request to conduct a peer review of the International Space Station (ISS) proposal to use Bayesian methodology for updating Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) for ISS Orbital Replaceable Units (ORU) was submitted to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) on September 20, 2005. The results were requested by October 20, 2005 in order to be available during the process of reworking the current ISS flight manifest. The results are included in this report.

Parsons, Vickie S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Time-to-failure analysis for NiCd batteries in a CPS orbit

Cells operating at five degrees Celsius or less, and going to 60 to 65 percent depth of discharge, were studied as to whether they could achieve a useful working life of 7.5 years in a GPS orbit. The characteristics of various orbits were compared and it is noted that the GPS orbit experiences only 220 cycles a year and must be treated as a geosynchronous rather than a low Earth orbit. Cell degradation is considered to be the result of both trickle-charge degradation and degradation due to cycling. Time-to-failure values are presented for selected temperatures and depth of discharges.

Sense, K. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Rate and time dependent failure of structural adhesives

Studies on two adhesives (Metlbond 1113 and 1113-2) identified as having important applications in the bonding of composite materials are presented. A testing program to ascertain stress-strain, strain-rate, time, yield, and/or failure behavior of these materials in bulk form using uniaxial tensile constant strain-rate, creep, and relaxation tests is described. The stress-strain behavior of each material is shown to be significantly rate dependent. A rate dependent stress whitening (crazing) phenomenon occurs prior to either yield or fracture. A region of linear elasticity, a region of viscoelasticity, and the onset of yielding are identified in the stress-strain behavior. The linear elastic limit and the yield point are shown to be rate dependent and agree well with an empirical equation proposed by Ludwik. A creep to failure phenomenon is shown to exist and is correlated with a delayed yield equation proposed by Crochet. Analytical predictions based on a modified Bingham model are shown to agree well with experimental stress-strain strain-rate data. Analytical predictions based on a modified Ramberg-Osgood equation are also shown for comparison purposes.

Brinson, H. F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of a Hardware In-the-Loop Test Bed for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Control Algorithms

Successful prediction and management of battery life using prognostic algorithms through ground and flight tests is important for performance evaluation of electrical systems. This paper details the design of test beds suitable for replicating loading profiles that would be encountered in deployed electrical systems. The test bed data will be used to develop and validate prognostic algorithms for predicting battery discharge time and battery failure time. Online battery prognostic algorithms will enable health management strategies. The platform used for algorithm demonstration is the EDGE 540T electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The fully designed test beds developed and detailed in this paper can be used to conduct battery life tests by controlling current and recording voltage and temperature to develop a model that makes a prediction of end-of-charge and end-of-life of the system based on rapid state of health (SOH) assessment.

Battery Testbed↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Real-time software failure characterization

A series of studies aimed at characterizing the fundamentals of the software failure process has been undertaken as part of a NASA project on the modeling of a real-time aerospace vehicle software reliability. An overview of these studies is provided, and the current study, an investigation of the reliability of aerospace vehicle guidance and control software, is examined. The study approach provides for the collection of life-cycle process data, and for the retention and evaluation of interim software life-cycle products.

Dunham, Janet R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Accelerated testing of composites

It is shown that the Zhurkov method for testing the strength of solids can be applied to dynamic tension and to cyclic loading and provides a viable approach to accelerated testing of composites. Data from the literature are used to demonstrate a straightforward application of the method to dynamic tension of glass fiber and cyclic loading for glass/polymer, metal matrix, and graphite/epoxy composites. Zhurkov's equation can be used at relatively high loads to obtain failure times at any temperature of interest. By taking a few data points at one or two other temperatures the spectrum of failure times can be expanded to temperatures not easily accessible.

Papazian, H. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-Dependent Failure Assessment of Ceramic Receivers

The outlet temperature targets for Gen 3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems pose a significant challenge to the structural reliability of high temperature metallic components, including those manufactured from nickel-based superalloys. Advanced ceramics present a potential solution due to their excellent high-temperature strength. However, accurate assessment of ceramic components requires an entirely different approach compared to metallic components. This paper describes the implementation of time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic components in srlife – an open-source software package for estimating the life of high temperature CSP components. This new capability will allow high temperature CSP designers to make fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs and accurately assess the performance of different ceramic materials for CSP receivers and other components. The current version of the tool is available at https://github.com/Argonne-National-Laboratory/srlife.

Barua, Bipul (ORCID:0000000247184113)↗
NASA NTRS1973

A new criterion for failure of materials by environment-induced cracking

A new criterion has been developed for predicting failure of materials by environment-induced cracking. The criterion has been developed by the use of fracture mechanics concepts and assumes that the relationship between crack-growth rate and stress intensity can be described by three separable regions of behavior as first suggested by Wiederhorn. The analytical form of the criterion relates failure time to the initial crack length and the critical crack length or alternatively, to the initial stress intensity and the fracture toughness for various conditions of stress and the environmental variables. The analytical expression is examined by the use of some experimental data on the hydrogen-induced cracking of Ti-5Al-2.5 Sn, and it is demonstrated that the expression predicts the general expected form of the relationship between the normalized stress intensity parameter and the failure time.

Williams, D. P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mean Time to Failure Analysis for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Weapons Engineering Tritium Facility Tritium Containment Vessels

The Weapons Engineering Tritium Facility (WETF) is a Hazard Category 2 nonreactor nuclear facility located in Technical Area 16 (TA-16) of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Tritium related research, development, and processing in support of stockpile stewardship program activities is conducted at WETF. Within WETF, various devices can be used to contain tritium and certain devices are designated as Tritium Containment Vessels (TCVs). Several different device types are identified as TCVs within WETF such as LP-50s and AL-M1s. Historically, a threshold tritium mass value has been used as the mechanism for designating a device as a TCV. When the tritium content of the device was below the tritium mass threshold it was not considered to be a TCV in the formal context. When the tritium content was above the administrative threshold, the device was considered to be a TCV. An upper tritium mass limit was also established for TCVs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Tantalum capacitor behavior under fast transient overvoltages

Tantalum capacitors were tested to determine failure time when subjected to short-duration, high-voltage surges caused by lightning strikes. Lightning is of concern to NASA because of possible damage to critical spacecraft circuits. The test was designed to determine the minimum time for tantalum capacitor failure and the amount of overvoltage a capacitor could survive, without permanent damage, in 100 microseconds. All tested exhibited good recovery from the transient one-shot pulses with no failure at any voltage, forward or reverse, in less than 25 microseconds.

Zill, J. A.↗