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At least 37 records · Page 2

Using onset times from frequent seismic surveys to understand fluid flow at the Peace River Field, Canada

With our limited knowledge of the relationship between changes in the state of an aquifer or reservoir and the corresponding changes in the elastic moduli, that is the rock physics model, hampers the effective use of time-lapse seismic observations for estimating flow properties within the Earth. A central problem is the complicated dependence of the magnitude of time-lapse changes on the saturation, pressure, and temperature changes within an aquifer or reservoir. We describe an inversion methodology for reservoir characterization that uses onset times, the calendar time of the change in seismic attributes, rather than the magnitude of the changes. We find that onset times are much less sensitive than magnitudes to the rock physics model used to relate time-lapse observations to changes in saturation, temperature and fluid pressure. We apply the inversion scheme to observations from daily monitoring of enhanced oil recovery at the Peace River field in Canada. An array of 1492 buried hydrophones record seismic signals from 49 buried sources. Time-shifts for elastic waves traversing the reservoir are extracted from the daily time-lapse cubes. In our analysis 175 images of time-shifts are transformed into a single map of onset times, leading to a substantial reduction in the volume of data. These observations are used in conjunction with bottom hole pressure data to infer the initial conditions prior to the injection, and to update the reservoir permeability model. The combination of a global and local inversion scheme produces a collection of reservoir models that are best described by three clusters. The updated model leads to a nearly 70 percent reduction in seismic data misfit. The final set of solutions successfully predict the observed normalized pressure history during the soak and flow-back into the wells between 82 and 175 days into the cyclic steaming operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using onset times from frequent geophysical surveys to understand reservoir fluid flow and to estimate flow properties

Seismic characterization of flow properties is a difficult prospect, due to the indirect relationship between permeability and seismic velocity and attenuation. At best, seismic time-lapse changes can detect the effects of saturation and pressure changes in a reservoir due to fluid flow. Even in this case, the interpretation of the seismic observation in terms of the state of the reservoir depends intimately on the properties of the rock physics model, which are usually poorly known. The onset time, the calendar time of geophysical changes, provides an alternative datum for characterizing properties such as reservoir permeability. The main advantage of an onset time is that it is sensitive to the flow properties of the reservoir yet insensitive to the details of the rock physics model. Two examples of the utility of onset times are discussed: The use of travel time shifts induced by the injection of carbon dioxide between two wells, and the time-lapse time shifts for elastic waves propagating through a reservoir undergoing enhanced oil recovery. In both examples, the onset times are mapped into permeability estimates using a trajectory-based approach akin to seismic tomography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Communication performance over the TDRS multipath/interference channel

Previously developed models are used to predict communication system performance for two cases: and aircraft/TDRS and a weather satellite/TDRS relay. The magnitude of multipath, differential time delay, Doppler shift, time and Doppler spread, and interference expected to be encountered are reviewed and applied to the two cases of interest.

Jenny, J.↗

Human–mouse comparison of the multistage nature of radiation carcinogenesis in a mathematical model

Abstract Mouse models are vital for assessing risk from environmental carcinogens, including ionizing radiation, yet the interspecies difference in the dose response precludes direct application of experimental evidence to humans. Herein, we take a mathematical approach to delineate the mechanism underlying the human–mouse difference in radiation‐related cancer risk. We used a multistage carcinogenesis model assuming a mutational action of radiation to analyze previous data on cancer mortality in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in lifespan mouse experiments. Theoretically, the model predicted that exposure will chronologically shift the age‐related increase in cancer risk forward by a period corresponding to the time in which the spontaneous mutational process generates the same mutational burden as that the exposure generates. This model appropriately fitted both human and mouse data and suggested a linear dose response for the time shift. The effect per dose decreased with increasing age at exposure similarly between humans and mice on a per‐lifespan basis (0.72‐ and 0.71‐fold, respectively, for every tenth lifetime). The time shift per dose was larger by two orders of magnitude in humans (7.8 and 0.046 years per Gy for humans and mice, respectively, when exposed at ~35% of their lifetime). The difference was mostly explained by the two orders of magnitude difference in spontaneous somatic mutation rates between the species plus the species‐independent radiation‐induced mutation rate. Thus, the findings delineate the mechanism underlying the interspecies difference in radiation‐associated cancer mortality and may lead to the use of experimental evidence for risk prediction in humans.

Oncology↗

Spectral Separation of the Turbofan Engine Coherent Combustion Noise Component

The core noise components of a dual spool turbofan engine (Honeywell TECH977) were separated by the use of a coherence function. A source location technique based on adjusting the time delay between the combustor pressure sensor signal and the far-field microphone signal to maximize the coherence and remove as much variation of the phase angle with frequency as possible was used. While adjusting the time delay to maximize the coherence and minimize the cross spectrum phase angle variation with frequency, the discovery was made that for the 130 microphone a 90.027 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 0 to 200 Hz while a 86.975 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 200 to 400 Hz. Since the 0 to 200 Hz band signal took more time to travel the same distance, it is slower than the 200 to 400 Hz band signal. This suggests the 0 to 200 Hz coherent cross spectral density band is partly due to indirect combustion noise attributed to hot spots interacting with the turbine. The signal in the 200 to 400 Hz frequency band is attributed mostly to direct combustion noise.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗

Time Delay Analysis of Turbofan Engine Direct and Indirect Combustion Noise Sources

The core noise components of a dual spool turbofan engine were separated by the use of a coherence function. A source location technique based on adjusting the time delay between the combustor pressure sensor signal and the far-field microphone signal to maximize the coherence and remove as much variation of the phase angle with frequency as possible was used. The discovery was made that for the 130o microphone a 90.027 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 0 to 200 Hz while a 86.975 ms time shift worked best for the frequency band from 200 to 400 Hz. Hence, the 0 to 200 Hz band signal took more time than the 200 to 400 Hz band signal to travel the same distance. This suggests the 0 to 200 Hz coherent cross spectral density band is partly due to indirect combustion noise attributed to entropy fluctuations, which travel at the flow velocity, interacting with the turbine. The signal in the 200 to 400 Hz frequency band is attributed mostly to direct combustion noise. Results are presented herein for engine power settings of 48, 54, and 60 percent of the maximum power setting

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗

Emulating climate extreme indices

We use simple pattern scaling and time-shift to emulate changes in a set of climate extreme indices under future scenarios, and evaluate the emulators' accuracy. We propose a metric for the error in emulation in the context of initial condition ensembles, to specifically characterize the role of internal variability in the emulation performance. Our metric separates systematic emulation errors from unavoidable discrepancies between emulated and target values due to internal variability. We compute the metricis at grid-point scale, and we show geographically resolved results, or aggregate them at global scale. We demonstrate the use of our error metric in the emulation of a suite of temperature and precipitation extreme indices. We test and compare simple pattern scaling and time-shift using a range of trajectories spanning targets inspired by the Paris agreement -- warming to 1.5C and 2.0C from the pre-industrial baseline -- and two of the longer-established trajectories, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. With this suite of scenarios we can test the effects on the performance of the size of the temperature gap between emulation origin and target. We find that for most indices emulation the dominant source of discrepancy is internal variability. For at least one index, however, counting exceedances of a high temperature threshold, significant portions of the globally aggregated discrepancy and its regional pattern originate from the systematic emulation error. This error exceeds internal variability of both the target and the emulated quantities in large coherent regions at low latitudes, and the explanation can be found in the differential behavior of temperature distributions across latitudes. The metric also highlights a fundamental difference in the two methods related to the simulation of internal variability, which is dampened significantly by simple pattern scaling. This aspect is of consequence when using these methods for specific applications, where preserving variability for uncertainty quantification is deemed important. With this study we offer our metric as a diagnostic tool, facilitating the formulation of scientific hypotheses on the reasons for the error. In the meantime, we show that for many impact relevant indices by now traditional emulation techniques can be accurate within the variations unavoidably introduced by internal variability, establishing the fundamental condition for using their emulation in impact modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Characterization of the Crew Module Uprighting System for NASA’s Orion Crew Module

The Orion Crew Module Uprighting System is a set of five airbag that are responsible for the uprighting of the crew module in the case of an inverted splashdown. A series of tests during the Underway Recovery Test 7 (URT-7) were run in preparation for the Artemis I mission, where the dynamic characterization of the CMUS in an ocean wave environment was performed. A Datawell Waverider DWR-G4 wave buoy was deployed to the characterize the wave environment during these tests. The heave measurements from this buoy were projected to the Orion Crew Module Buoyancy Test Article location by two different methods: (1) directly time-shifting the data, and (2) performing a frequency-domain, phase-shifting operation. Results demonstrate that the phase-shifting operation led to better correlation with the true crew module response to wave excitation as compared with the purely time-shifted method. Additionally, a novel approach to localize an object in a bidirectional wave field based on its heave response is presented and validated with URT- 7 data. Given a wave measurement device at a known location, one can estimate the relative distance to another object based solely off its heave response. Results show that if signals have sufficiently good correlation, this method can be used to estimate the relative separation between two objects in the same wave field.

Vertaska, Ivan Bertaska↗

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗

Pressure shifted valve timing

A hydraulic pump-motor includes a cylinder block including a plurality of fluid chambers, a piston in each of the fluid chambers, a cam, a fixed valve area profile, and a timing adjustment actuator. The cam includes a cam surface that engages the pistons and drives movement of the pistons relative to the fluid chambers in response to relative rotation between the cam and the fluid chambers. The fixed valve area profile is configured to control fluid flows between the fluid chambers and first and second ports. The timing adjustment actuator is configured to adjust an angular orientation of the fixed valve area profile relative to an angular orientation of the cam based on a pressure differential between a pressure at the first port and a pressure at the second port.

Boyce-Erickson, Grey C.↗

Real-time quantum calculations of phase shifts using wave packet time delays

We present a method to extract the phase shift of a scattering process using the real-time evolution in the early and intermediate stages of the collision in order to estimate the time delay of a wave packet. This procedure is convenient when using noisy quantum computers for which the asymptotic out-state behavior is unreachable. We demonstrate that the challenging Fourier transforms involved in the state preparation and measurements can be implemented in 1+1 dimensions with current trapped ion devices and IBM quantum computers. We compare quantum computations of the time delays obtained in the one-particle quantum mechanics limit and the scalable quantum field theory formulation with accurate numerical results. We discuss the finite volume effects in the Wigner formula connecting time delays to phase shifts. The results reported involve two- and four-qubit calculations, and we discuss the possibility of larger scale computations in the near future.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

A method to enhance and detect subtle seismic arrivals typically used in terrestrial seismology, is to stack seismograms that have been time shifted to the predicted arrival time of a hypothetical phase of interest. We previously applied this array processing approach to the Apollo lunar seismic data, providing the first direct constraint on the size and state of the Moon's core. The method used travel time predictions made from pre-existing estimates of the crust and mantle velocities and densities and assumed that each of the Moons layers ia a uniform shell with no lateral variation or heterogeneity. In reality the structural properties of the Moon are likely inhomogeneous and vary both laterally and with depth.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Dynamic time-warping correction for shifts in ultrahigh resolving power ion mobility spectrometry and structures for lossless ion manipulations

Detection of arrival time shifts between ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) separations can limit achievable resolving power (Rp), particularly when multiple separations are summed or averaged, as commonly practiced. Such variations are more apparent in higher Rp measurements, and are particularly evident in long path length traveling wave structures for lossless ion manipulations (SLIM) IMS due to their typically much longer separation times. Here we explore the utility of a data processing approaches employing linear alignment (LA) and nonlinear dynamic time warping (DTW) of IMS separations to correct for variations between separations, such as due to pressure fluctuations. For multipass SLIM IMS separations, where narrow mobility range measurements have arrival times that can extend to several seconds, the LA approach effectively corrected for such variations, and significantly improvement Rp for summed separations. However, LA was much less effective for high Rp broad mobility range separations, such as obtained with multilevel SLIM IMS. Changes in IMS arrival times ions were observed to be correlated with small pressure changes, with approximately 0.6% relative arrival time shifts being common, sufficient to result in a loss of Rp for summed separations. Comparison of the approaches showed DTW alignment performed similarly to LA when used over a narrow mobility range, but was significantly better (providing narrower peaks and higher signal intensities) for wide mobility range data. We found the DTW approach increased Rp by as much as 115% for measurements in which 50 IMS separations over 2 seconds were summed, and leading to a large improvement in effective Rp. We conclude that DTW is superior to LA for ultrahigh resolution broad mobility range SLIM IMS separations, correcting for ion arrival time shifts regardless of the cause. Our tool is publicly available for use with universal ion mobility format (.UIMF) and text (.txt) files.

Data alignment, dynamic time warping, ion mobility↗