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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic Deep Learning v0.1

Here, we present a method that uses protein levels to predict times series of metabolite concentrations. Understanding this type of pathway dynamics is important in order to predict the behavior of the pathway and, more pragmatically, to be able to design biological systems (such as strains bioengineered to produce chemical products) reliably. Typically, for this purpose, kinetic models consisting of differential equations based on the Michaelis-Menten dynamics have been used in the past. However, these methods can rarely produce good fits to measured data time series. Possibly, this happens because the kinetic constants are unknown or are different from the ones measured in vivo, or perhaps because Michaelis-Menten dynamics is not a satisfactory description. In order to improve the predictive nature of these kinetic models we have eliminated the Michaelis-Menten description of pathway dynamics and we have substituted it by algorithms that automatically learn these dynamics from previously obtained metabolomics and proteomics data using machine learning approaches. Specifically, kinetic deep learning uses deep learning to map proteomics time series to metabolite concentration time series, instead of learning the first metabolite derivative and integrating in (as in the first version of kinetic learning). This approach is shown to provide good to excellent results with a data set specifically collected for this purpose.

Garcia Martin, Hector [Joint BioEnergy Institute (↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

MSASGCN : Multi-Head Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Cao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cascade Error Projection with Low Bit Weight Quantization for High Order Correlation Data

In this paper, we reinvestigate the solution for chaotic time series prediction problem using neural network approach. The nature of this problem is such that the data sequences are never repeated, but they are rather in chaotic region. However, these data sequences are correlated between past, present, and future data in high order. We use Cascade Error Projection (CEP) learning algorithm to capture the high order correlation between past and present data to predict a future data using limited weight quantization constraints. This will help to predict a future information that will provide us better estimation in time for intelligent control system. In our earlier work, it has been shown that CEP can sufficiently learn 5-8 bit parity problem with 4- or more bits, and color segmentation problem with 7- or more bits of weight quantization. In this paper, we demonstrate that chaotic time series can be learned and generalized well with as low as 4-bit weight quantization using round-off and truncation techniques. The results show that generalization feature will suffer less as more bit weight quantization is available and error surfaces with the round-off technique are more symmetric around zero than error surfaces with the truncation technique. This study suggests that CEP is an implementable learning technique for hardware consideration.

Duong, Tuan A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

HYPPO: A Surrogate-Based Multi-Level Parallelism Tool for Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a new software, HYPPO, that enables the automatic tuning of hyperparameters of various deep learning (DL) models. Unlike other hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, HYPPO uses adaptive surrogate models and directly accounts for uncertainty in model predictions to find accurate and reliable models that make robust predictions. Using asynchronous nested parallelism, we are able to significantly alleviate the computational burden of training complex architectures and quantifying the uncertainty. HYPPO is implemented in Python and can be used with both TensorFlow and PyTorch libraries. We demonstrate various software features on time-series prediction and image classification problems as well as a scientific application in computed tomography image reconstruction. Finally, we show that (1) we can reduce by an order of magnitude the number of evaluations necessary to find the most optimal region in the hyperparameter space and (2) we can reduce by two orders of magnitude the throughput for such HPO process to complete.

adaptation models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Power spectra of quasi-periodic oscillations in luminous X-ray stars

A variety of partial random processes are considered in order to study the effects on the power-density spectrum of several physical phenomena that may occur in the beat-frequency modulated accretion (BFMA) model of QPOs. The relevant physical properties of BFMA model are summarized, and the class of random processes used to represent the X-ray intensity time series predicted by the model are introduced. The dependence of the power-density spectrum on pulse shape is discussed. Pulse-lifetime and orbital-frequency distributions are introduced, illustrating how these affect the power-density spectrum. The effect of nonuniform initial-pulse phase distributions and of nonuniform pulse-time distributions are considered. The effects of a particular type of pulse-to-pulse correlation that may be natural in the context of the BFMA model and that greatly increases the power of the oscillations relative to that in the red noise is analyzed.

Shibazaki, N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Dimensionality Reduction in Machine Learning Modeling of CO2 Storage

In this study, we developed deep learning models that are capable of predicting spatio-temporal outputs of CO2 saturation, pressure, and brine production in a 3D saline storage reservoir over 30 years of continuous CO2 injection and a 50-year post-injection timeframe. To improve computational efficiency and maintain performance accuracy, the model framework involves ensembling multi-layer autoencoder networks that provide dimensionality reduction of geologic inputs with fully connected long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks that generate time-series prediction. This study was presented as poster at the 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting held in Pittsburgh, PA (August 15 – 19, 2022).

Bello, Kolawole↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2024

Collective dynamics and long-range order in thermal neuristor networks

Abstract In the pursuit of scalable and energy-efficient neuromorphic devices, recent research has unveiled a novel category of spiking oscillators, termed “thermal neuristors.” These devices function via thermal interactions among neighboring vanadium dioxide resistive memories, emulating biological neuronal behavior. Here, we show that the collective dynamical behavior of networks of these neurons showcases a rich phase structure, tunable by adjusting the thermal coupling and input voltage. Notably, we identify phases exhibiting long-range order that, however, does not arise from criticality, but rather from the time non-local response of the system. In addition, we show that these thermal neuristor arrays achieve high accuracy in image recognition and time series prediction through reservoir computing, without leveraging long-range order. Our findings highlight a crucial aspect of neuromorphic computing with possible implications on the functioning of the brain: criticality may not be necessary for the efficient performance of neuromorphic systems in certain computational tasks.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

An artificial spiking quantum neuron

Abstract Artificial spiking neural networks have found applications in areas where the temporal nature of activation offers an advantage, such as time series prediction and signal processing. To improve their efficiency, spiking architectures often run on custom-designed neuromorphic hardware, but, despite their attractive properties, these implementations have been limited to digital systems. We describe an artificial quantum spiking neuron that relies on the dynamical evolution of two easy to implement Hamiltonians and subsequent local measurements. The architecture allows exploiting complex amplitudes and back-action from measurements to influence the input. This approach to learning protocols is advantageous in the case where the input and output of the system are both quantum states. We demonstrate this through the classification of Bell pairs which can be seen as a certification protocol. Stacking the introduced elementary building blocks into larger networks combines the spatiotemporal features of a spiking neural network with the non-local quantum correlations across the graph.

Kristensen, Lasse Bjørn (ORCID:0000000239398170)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition for convection-dominated flows

Autoencoder techniques find increasingly common use in reduced order modeling as a means to create a latent space. This reduced order representation offers a modular data-driven modeling approach for nonlinear dynamical systems when integrated with a time series predictive model. In this Letter, we put forth a nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) framework, which is an end-to-end Galerkin-free model combining autoencoders with long short-term memory networks for dynamics. By eliminating the projection error due to the truncation of Galerkin models, a key enabler of the proposed nonintrusive approach is the kinematic construction of a nonlinear mapping between the full-rank expansion of the POD coefficients and the latent space where the dynamics evolve. We test our framework for model reduction of a convection-dominated system, which is generally challenging for reduced order models. Our approach not only improves the accuracy, but also significantly reduces the computational cost of training and testing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

pnnl/EELSTM

EELSTM: Time Series Prediction on Electron Energy Loss Spectra - long short-term memory model approach to forecasting of electron energy loss spectroscopy, based on a Bayesian deep learning model

Doty, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2024

MATSE: Multi-fidelity assisted time-series emulation

I am going to present my work on multifidelity timeseries models at MS&T in Pittsburgh. We develop efficient machine learning methodologies to accelerate time-series predictions from a hierarchy of complex physics-based models.

Katona, Ryan Michael↗