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DOE OSTI2024

Thermal and hydraulic performance of volumetrically heated triply periodic minimal surface heaters

Advanced heat transfer surfaces, mainly Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces (TPMSs) have great potential to increase heat transfer performance over traditional heat transfer surfaces due to their tortuous flow path and higher surface area-volume ratio. The emergence of additive manufacturing of nuclear fuel motivates experimental investigation of such advanced geometries in the context of a nuclear reactor core. Here, this study employed a novel method to explore the performance of gyroid and diamond TPMS geometries. Volumetrically heated heaters were additively manufactured from conductive polymer filament, and airflow was used to simulate the convective heat transfer from the core within a nuclear reactor. The mass flow and volumetric generation rates were varied, local Nusselt number correlations were obtained using embedded thermocouples to measure the solid and fluid temperature, and friction factor correlations were developed using differential pressure measurements. The gyroid TPMS presented a friction factor 1.5 times higher than the diamond TPMS and 90 times that of the rod bundle. TPMS geometries showed Nusselt numbers 8–10 times higher than that of the rod bundle, also maintaining colder internal temperatures, which suggested that they could sustain 250–275 % higher power density than the rod bundle for a given centerline temperature. Hence, having the potential to greatly increase the safety margins and power output of a nuclear reactor core with similar volume.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of riparian enhancement actions in the Columbia River Basin

Riparian enhancement is a common restoration technique in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the Pacific Northwest. However, relatively few studies have evaluated its success and even fewer studies include long-term monitoring. Forty-one riparian planting projects located in the CRB, each with a paired treatment and control reach, were evaluated in the summer of 2018 and 2019 using an extensive post-treatment (EPT) design. At each reach, we quantified woody plant abundance, richness, diversity, and vegetation and canopy cover as riparian response variables, and measured terrace height and documented individuals with bud browse, deceased, and with predator protection as potential explanatory variables. Species richness, woody plant abundance (all height classes combined and within shrub height class), and the proportion of woody plants with bud browse or deceased were all higher in treatment than control reaches. However, no significant improvements were observed for any other riparian response or explanatory variables. Implementation techniques, including invasive species removal efforts, follow-up planting, watering, and the type of restoration project (floodplain restoration and planting, in-stream restoration and planting, or solely planting) were also considered as potential explanatory variables and were found to have significant impacts on restoration response for abundance and cover variables. Further, our results suggest that planting implementation methods, site level physical factors, and time since planting all influence the success of riparian planting projects and if not addressed in restoration design and implementation can contribute to a lack of detectable response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated geological, economic, and risk assessment of underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is a promising option to buffer variable renewable power and support the hydrogen economy. Yet this technology is early-stage, and key uncertainties remain about how coupled processes such as geochemical and geomechanical impacts affect long-term storage security. In this paper, we seek to integrate the results from a large, multi-scale research program to quantify core feasibility metrics and situate these studies within ongoing efforts. Through this work, we evaluate hydrogen recoverability during storage by assessing diffusive losses, losses to geochemical interactions and their subsequent impact on geomechanical properties, and losses to residual saturation during injection and withdrawal. Molecular and laboratory studies show that lithologic heterogeneity, pore geometry, and mineral surface chemistry govern hydrogen–rock interactions, controlling loss pathways. High-pressure coreflooding is used to estimate relative permeabilities and measure parameters needed for reservoir-scale sensitivity analyses. These core-scale experiments found early hydrogen breakthrough at low saturations driven by capillary and viscous fingering, which limits pore-space utilization at early times, while repeated injection and withdrawal cycles improve deliverability over time. Technoeconomic factors and purity requirements for end uses are also considered as part of our comprehensive feasibility analysis. Finally, we underscore the importance of geophysical monitoring and tailored injection strategies to maintain integrity and efficiency. Together, these results provide a quantitative foundation for safe, scalable deployment of UHS and highlight priorities for future integrated studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatial-Temporal PV Hosting Capacity Estimation and Evaluation

Evaluating Photovoltaic Hosting Capacity (PVHC) is an essential step in the process of integrating solar energy into power grids, particularly when focusing on the distribution network (DN) as the primary integration target. PVHC needs to be investigated, especially in cases where the grids are unbalanced, and their operational conditions vary spatially and temporally. This motivation prompted us to propose a scalable model tailored to this application. In this paper, we applied linearization to the alternating current optimal power flow (AC-OPF) and solar inverters, transforming the original problem into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem. Additionally, we accounted for the battery energy storage system (BESS) as a time-coupling factor for calculating PVHC. We then compared the PVHC results between the IEEE-13 bus and SMART-DS San Francisco (SFO) cases and discussed the extent to which BESS can enhance the PVHC of a DN. Furthermore, we designed a web-based graphical visualization for the SFO case, enabling user interaction with raw data and simulation results on a map through a graphical user interface (GUI). In summary, our results and findings provide valuable insights for future three-phase unbalanced AC-OPF PVHC practices and their visualization.

AC-optimal power flow↗

DOE OSTI2023

ESnet/JLab FPGA Accelerated Transport

To increase the science rate for high data rates/volumes, Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) has partnered with Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) to define an edge to data center traffic shaping / steering transport capability featuring data event aware network shaping and forwarding. The keystone of this ESnet+JLab FPGA Accelerated Transport (EJFAT) is the joint development of an AI/ML directed dynamic compute work Load Balancer (LB) of UDP streamed data. The LB is a suite consisting of a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) executing the dynamically configurable, low fixed latency LB data plane featuring real-time packet redirection and high throughput, and a control plane running on the FPGA host computer that monitors network and compute farm telemetry in order to make dynamic AI/ML guided decisions for destination compute host redirection/load balancing and destination resource provisioning. The LB provides for three-tier horizontal scaling across LB suites, core compute hosts, and CPUs within a host. The LB effectively provides seamless integration of edge/core computing to support direct experimental data processing for immediate use by JLab science programs and others such as the EIC as well as data centers of the future requiring high throughput and low latency for both hot and cooled data for both running experiment data acquisition systems and data center use cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Oxygen Storage Incorporated Into Net Power and the Allam–Fetvedt Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Power Cycle—Techno-Economic Analysis

Abstract With the planned future reliance on variable renewable energy, the ability to store energy for prolonged time periods will be required to reduce the disruption of market fluctuations. This paper presents a method to analyze a hybrid liquid-oxygen (LOx) storage/direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle and optimize the economic performance over a diverse range of scenarios. The system utilizes a modified version of the NET Power process to produce energy when energy demand exceeds the supply while displacing much of the cost of the air separation unit (ASU) energy requirements through cryogenic storage of oxygen. The model uses marginal cost of energy data to determine the optimal times to charge and discharge the system over a given scenario. The model then applies ramp rates and other time-dependent factors to generate an economic model for the system without storage considerations. The size of the storage system is then applied to create a realistic model of the plant operation. From the real plant operation model, the amount of energy charged and discharged, the capital expenditures (CAPEX) of each system, energy costs and revenue and other parameters can be calculated. The economic parameters are then combined to calculate the net present value (NPV) of the system for the given scenario. The model was then run through the SMPSO genetic algorithm in Python for a variety of geographic regions and large-scale scenarios (high solar penetration) to maximize the NPV based on multiple parameters for each subsystem. The LOx storage requirements will also be discussed.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

HEP detector simulation in the 2030’s

Detector simulation is of critical importance to the success of HEP experimental programs, a determinant factor for timely delivery of precise physics results.

Elvira, V. Daniel [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Biopreparedness through a Model System to Understand the Molecular Mechanisms that Lead to Pathogenesis and Disease Transmission: NW-BRaVE

The science of biopreparedness to counter biological threats hinges on understanding the fundamental principles and molecular mechanisms that lead to pathogenesis and disease transmission. Our vision to address this challenge is to create a powerful and user-friendly platform to elucidate the fundamental principles of how molecular interactions drive pathogen-host relationships and host shifts. We will enable groundbreaking discoveries by integrating a wide range of structural, genomics, proteomics, and other advanced omics measurements, along with evolutionary and artificial intelligence predictions. To make sure the system is applicable to real-world problems, we will develop it in the context of a tractable model system, the small, abundant, and accessible photosynthetic cyanobacteria and their constantly co-adapting viral pathogens, cyanophages. This model will maintain the system’s applicability to real-world problems and techniques, but the overall focus will be on elucidating general principles of detecting, assessing, and surveilling molecular interaction, adaptation, and coevolution that are system agnostic and therefore extensible to other viral-host interactions. Our overall objectives are to (1) identify the molecular complexes that comprise the cyanobacteria redox macromolecular subsystem and how they dynamically change with bacteriophage infection in situ, using cryo-electron tomography; (2) profile regulatory changes during infection using proteomics, multiomics, and experimental validation, and integrate the data with in situ structures; (3) use genomics and metagenomics to determine environmental and population factors across time scales that impact the interactions between marine cyanobacteria and their cyanophage parasites, predicting the evolutionary origins of in situ structural and functional interactions, convergence and coevolution; and (4) develop a data integration and transformation platform that facilitates the integration of in situ, proteomic, and evolutionary measurements of molecular interactions to surveil diverse hosts and parasites in various environmental contexts. These objectives address Focus Area 2 Reveal Molecular Interactions Across Biological Scales for Design of Targeted Interventions. Our powerful and user-friendly platform will enhance connections between the often-siloed fields of structure, molecular phenotype, and evolutionary genomics that are key to biopreparedness, but in need of integration (Figure 1). We will build an integrated navigation tool to facilitate the effective use of globally distributed experimental data for integrated analysis and predictive modeling. The project will develop, implement, and test a platform to assess host-pathogen molecular interactions, adaptation to hosts and host shifts, and coevolution between hosts and pathogens, successfully impacting the research community by revolutionizing abilities to study any host-pathogen interaction, encourage diverse community contributions, and gain fundamental insights into how proteins adapt to new contexts. This ability will be critical for designing early interventions to address future threats. We will build surveillance training capability, aiming for a fair and equitable response to future pandemics and biothreats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

PREFACE: A Search for Long-Lived Particles at the Large Hadron Collider

The Standard Model (SM) fails to explain many problems (neutrino masses, dark matter, and matter–antimatter asymmetry, among others) that may be resolved with new particles beyond the SM. No observation of such new particles may be explained either by their exceptionally high mass or by considerably small coupling to SM particles. The latter case implies relatively long lifetimes. Such long-lived particles (LLPs) then to have signatures different from those of SM particles. Searches in the “central region” are covered by the LHC general purpose experiments. The forward small angle region far from the interaction point (IP) is unexplored. Such particles are expected to have the energy as large as E = O(1 TeV) and Lorentz time dilation factor γ = E/m ≈ 10 2 –10 3 (with m the particle mass) hence long enough decay distances. A new class of specialized LHC detectors dedicated to LLP searches has been proposed for the forward regions. Among these experiments, FASER is already operational, and FACET is under consideration at a location 100 m from the LHC IP5 (the CMS detector intersection). However, some features of FACET require a specially enlarged beam pipe, which cannot be implemented for LHC Run 4. In this study, we explore a simplified version of the proposed detector PREFACE compatible with the standard LHC beam pipe in the HL-LHC Run 4. Realistic G EANT 4 simulations are performed and the background is evaluated. An initial analysis of the physics potential with the PREFACE geometry indicates that several significant channels could be accessible with sensitivities comparable to FACET and other LLP searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear control of the minimum safety factor in tokamaks by optimal allocation of spatially moving electron cyclotron current drive

The minimum value of the safety factor profile is related to the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of the plasma confined in a tokamak. Therefore, active control of the minimum safety factor may mitigate MHD instabilities that can degrade or even terminate plasma confinement. Typically, in most tokamak scenarios, the minimum safety factor evolves spatially with time, i.e., the location at which the safety factor achieves the minimum value changes with time. In addition to the inherent nonlinearities in the minimum safety factor evolution, its spatial variation makes the control design challenging. In particular, complexity in control design may arise from the need for time-dependent nonlinear models that account for spatial variation of the minimum safety factor. Furthermore, the minimum safety factor may drift to locations where the actuator authority is low. The problem of minimum safety factor control with target location tracking and moving electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) is addressed in this work. A nonlinear time-dependent model that incorporates the spatial variation of the minimum safety factor is presented. A nonlinear controller based on optimal feedback linearization is developed to track a target minimum safety factor. The proposed controller treats the ECCD position as a controllable variable. In other words, the controller prescribes the ECCD position (in addition to the non-inductive powers) in real time based on an optimal criterion that is defined a priori. This work also presents the steps necessary to integrate the minimum safety factor controller with a total energy controller to achieve multiple control objectives simultaneously. In conclusion, the proposed integrated control algorithm is tested using nonlinear simulations in the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) for a DIII-D tokamak scenario.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical structure factors of warm dense matter from time-dependent orbital-free and mixed-stochastic-deterministic density functional theory

Abstract We present the first calculations of the inelastic part of the dynamical structure factor (DSF) for warm dense matter (WDM) using time-dependent orbital-free density functional theory (TD-OF-DFT) and mixed-stochastic-deterministic (mixed) Kohn Sham TD-DFT (KS TD-DFT). WDM is an intermediate phase of matter found in planetary cores and laser-driven experiments, where the accurate calculation of the DSF is critical for interpreting x-ray Thomson scattering measurements. Traditional TD-DFT methods, while highly accurate, are computationally expensive, motivating the exploration of TD-OF-DFT and mixed TD-KS-DFT as more efficient alternatives. We applied these methods to experimentally measured WDM systems, including solid-density aluminum and beryllium, compressed beryllium, and carbon–hydrogen mixtures. Our results show that TD-OF-DFT requires a dynamical kinetic energy potential in order to qualitatively capture the plasmon response. Additionally, it struggles with capturing bound electron contributions. In contrast, mixed TD-KS-DFT offers greater accuracy in distinguishing bound and free electron effects, aligning well with experimental data, though at a higher computational cost. This study highlights the trade-offs between computational efficiency and accuracy, demonstrating that TD-OF-DFT remains a valuable tool for rapid scans of parameter space, while mixed TD-KS-DFT should be preferred for high-fidelity simulations. Our findings provide insight into the future development of DFT methods for WDM and suggest potential improvements for TD-OF-DFT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Convective heat transfer enhancement through additively built multiscale micro-tetrahedron features

Use of Additive Manufacturing (AM) to improve the heat transfer characteristics of tip shrouds in high-pressure turbines is being considered by industries. Existing designs of these components integrate micro-cooling channels to reduce the bulk temperature for improved life. In this research, closely packed micro tetrahedron features in addition to AM roughness has been considered. Further, this multiscale surface characteristics increased surface area per unit volume available for heat exchange. Micro-tet features were designed, manufactured, characterized, and evaluated systematically while increasing their height. An enormous increase in the overall wetted surface area by 200 % was measured. The convective heat transfer enhancement was ~3.72 times EDM rough coupon, and friction factor enhancement was ~5.5 times EDM rough coupon. Furthermore, the proposed design offers 2.5 times enhanced heat transfer for a given 2 W pumping power compared to our EDM rough coupon. Heat transfer enhancement was observed to not vary strongly with increased Reynolds number. Such complex designs are only possible through additive manufacturing for increased heat transfer with little pressure penalty. Finally, increasing the micro-tet height for increased surface area and improved heat exchange beyond an upper limit might not be a significant benefit as it gets compensated by increasing skin friction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging visible and near-infrared spectroelectrochemistry to calibrate a robust model for Vanadium(IV/V) in varying nitric acid and temperature levels

Spectroelectrochemistry and optimal design of experiments can be used to rapidly build accurate models for species quantification and enable a greater level of process awareness. Optical spectroscopy can provide vital elemental and molecular information, but several hurdles must be overcome before it can become a widely adopted analytical method for remote analysis in the nuclear field. Analytes with varying oxidation state, acid concentration, and fluctuating temperature must be efficiently accounted for to minimize time and resources in restrictive hot cell environments. The classic one-factor-at-a-time approach is not suitable for frequent calibration/maintenance operations in this setting. Therefore, a novel alternative was developed to characterize a system containing vanadium(IV/V) (0.01–0.1 M), nitric acid (0.1–4 M), and varying temperatures (20–45 °C). Here, spectroelectrochemistry methods were used to acquire a sample set selected by optimal design of experiments. This new approach allows for the accurate analysis of vanadium and HNO 3 concentration by leveraging UV–Vis–NIR absorption spectroscopy with robust and accurate chemometric models. The top model's root mean squared error of prediction percent values were 3.47%, 4.06%, 3.40%, and 10.9% for V(IV), V(V), HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. These models, efficiently developed using the designed approach, exhibited strong predictive accuracy for vanadium and acid with varying oxidation states and temperature using only spectrophotometry, which advances current technology for real-world hot cell applications. Additionally, Nernstian analysis of the V(IV/V) standard potential was performed using traditional absorbance methods and multivariate curve resolution (MCR). The successful tests demonstrated that MCR Nernst tests may be valuable in highly convoluted spectral systems to better understand the redox processes' behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiplexing and Demultiplexing Signals for Radiography Application Using the Discrete Fourier Transform

Our goal is to develop an X-ray phase-contrast imaging system that can provide excellent soft tissue contrast of phase, attenuation, and small-angle scatter. We propose to replace the common system of G0, G1, and G2 gradings with a biprism array to replace the G1 grading and introduce a novel X-ray tube designed to replace the motion of the phase stepping grading G2. The proposed X-ray tube uses temporal multiplexing to provide simultaneous virtual “electronic phase stepping.” In this work the discrete Fourier transform is used to separate from the composite measurement individual X-ray phase contrast measurements sampled at different frequencies. The method performs a discrete Fourier transform of a composite refence sequence to obtain using the frequency amplitudes calibration factors needed to extract the X-ray phase contrast measurement amplitudes from the composite image. The composite reference sequence is the sum of the individual sequences, at different frequencies, with amplitudes of one. The method takes the discrete Fourier transform of this composite reference sequence; whereby, the amplitude of each frequency component is compared with the total sum of its stand-alone sequence amplitude. A calibration factor is determined so that the amplitude of this composite reference frequency times the calibration factor must equal the total sum of the sequence amplitude—the zero-frequency amplitude of the discrete Fourier transform of its stand-alone sequence. To demultiplex the composite measured signal these calibration factors are multiplied by the amplitudes of the frequency components of the discrete Fourier transform of the composite X-phase-contrast measurement to obtain the amplitude of each frequency encoded measurement. Using these calibration factors, we demonstrate with the discrete Fourier transform in Mathematica the extraction of individual images from a composite image that one would expect obtaining from our proposed new X-ray phase contrast imaging system. We then demonstrate as an example how using images from X-ray phase contrast data one can calculate phase, attenuation and the dark field images using grading phase step data supplied to use from Microworks, GmbH in Karlsruhe, Germany.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of silver($\mathrm{I}$) ion reduction on the selectivity of olefins, paraffins, and aromatic compounds by gas chromatographic stationary phases consisting of silver($\mathrm{I}$) salts in ionic liquids

We report the olefin/paraffin selectivity offered by ionic liquid (IL) stationary phases can be enhanced through the addition of silver(I) ion, which is well-known to undergo selective complexation with unsaturated compounds. However, such stationary phases often suffer from the loss of chromatographic selectivity as silver(I) ion can be reduced to elemental silver. To maintain the separation performance of silver(I) ion/IL stationary phases, an understanding of factors and conditions that promote the reduction of silver(I) ion is needed. In this study, capillary gas chromatography columns featuring a stationary phase consisting of the 1-decyl-3-methylimidazolium bis[(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl]imide ([C 10 MIM + ][NTf 2 - ]) IL impregnated with [Ag + ][NTf 2 - ] were examined to investigate the effects of temperature, hydrogen content in exposure gas stream, and time of heating/exposure events on olefin selectivity. Retention factors of representative analytes, such as C 6 olefins and paraffins as well as aromatic compounds, were measured after subjecting the columns to the aforementioned conditions, followed by an evaluation of selectivity factors over time. Selectivity factors of olefins and aromatic compounds were observed to decrease significantly when the stationary phases were heated to temperatures higher than 110°C as well as being subjected to mixed gas streams containing greater than 50 mol% of hydrogen. As constant column heating temperatures were applied under exposure gas mixtures containing hydrogen and nitrogen, a gradual decrease in analyte selectivity factors was observed under prolonged periods of time. However, application of a ternary gas mixture comprised of 25/50/25 mol% hydrogen/nitrogen/methane resulted in an increase in the 3-hexyne/cis-2-hexene selectivity when measured at 120°C for 60 h, due to a smaller decrease in the retention factor of 3-hexyne compared to cis-2-hexene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing computational times for simulations when using PBPK model template and stand-alone implementations of PBPK models

Introduction We previously developed a PBPK model template that consists of a single model “superstructure” with equations and logic found in many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Using the template, one can implement PBPK models with different combinations of structures and features. Methods To identify factors that influence computational time required for PBPK model simulations, we conducted timing experiments using various implementations of PBPK models for dichloromethane and chloroform, including template and stand-alone implementations, and simulating four different exposure scenarios. For each experiment, we measured the required computational time and evaluated the impacts of including various model features (e.g., number of output variables calculated) and incorporating various design choices (e.g., different methods for estimating blood concentrations). Results We observed that model implementations that treat body weight and dependent quantities as constant (fixed) parameters can result in a 30% time savings compared with options that treat body weight and dependent quantities as time-varying. We also observed that decreasing the number of state variables by 36% in our PBPK model template led to a decrease of 20–35% in computational time. Other factors, such as the number of output variables, the method for implementing conditional statements, and the method for estimating blood concentrations, did not have large impacts on simulation time. In general, simulations with PBPK model template implementations of models required more time than simulations with stand-alone implementations, but the flexibility and (human) time savings in preparing and reviewing a model implemented using the PBPK model template may justify the increases in computational time requirements. Conclusion Our findings concerning how PBPK model design and implementation decisions impact computational speed can benefit anyone seeking to develop, improve, or apply a PBPK model, with or without the PBPK model template.

Bernstein, Amanda S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A mathematical approach to using the forgetting curve to evaluate experience and training factors in human reliability analysis

Traditional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have difficulty dealing with the dynamic nature of factors such as time and rely on static and expert-judgment-based assessments of performance-shaping factors (PSFs) across limited levels. In this study, we introduce a mathematical approach for dynamically evaluating the experience and training PSF. Our proposed method integrates the psychological concept of the “forgetting curve” to evaluate how PSFs are impacted by the number of trainings and the time elapsed since training. To confirm the validity of the model, we provide experimental data fitted by identifying the quantitative relationship between training and human performance. This research enables dynamic and objective assessments, thus reducing reliance on subjective expert judgment and improving the accuracy of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗