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At least 37 records · Page 2

Severe thunderstorm internal structure from dual-Doppler radar measurements

Dual-Doppler radar data were analyzed for three different times during the life cycle of a severe thunderstorm. The thunderstorm developed a double vortex inside as a tornado was generated beneath the cloud. The organized kinematic and precipitation internal structure of the thunderstorm support a theoretical double-vortex thunderstorm model that was developed earlier. The horizontal perturbation and relative winds, vertical winds, horizontal divergence and vorticity are compared for the three different times of measurement. The measurements and theoretical model provide new explanations of the severe thunderstorm and the relationship of associated tornadoes.

Eagleman, J. R.↗

Medium-range, objective predictions of thunderstorm location and severity for aviation

This paper presents a computerized technique for medium-range (12-48h) prediction of both the location and severity of thunderstorms utilizing atmospheric predictions from the National Meteorological Center's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). A regional-scale analysis scheme is first used to examine the spatial and temporal distributions of forecasted variables associated with the structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems over an area of approximately 10 to the 6th sq km. The final prediction of thunderstorm location and severity is based upon an objective combination of these regionally analyzed variables. Medium-range thunderstorm predictions are presented for the late afternoon period of April 10, 1979, the day of the Wichita Falls, Texas tornado. Conventional medium-range thunderstorm forecasts, made from observed data, are presented with the case study to demonstrate the possible application of this objective technique in improving 12-48 h thunderstorm forecasts for aviation.

Wilson, G. S.↗

Observation and analysis of thunderstorm-generated gravity waves in the lower stratosphere

The relation between internal gravity waves and thunderstorms may be important in at least two respects. First, thunderstorm cells could be excited or initiated by propagating gravity waves in the troposphere. Second, thunderstorms may contribute to the energy of the atmospheric gravity wave field. Observations of gravity waves associated with thunderstorms are analyzed. The analysis will emphasize the difference of thunderstorm-generated gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Lu, D.↗

A modeling study of the time-averaged electric currents in the vicinity of isolated thunderstorms

A thorough examination of the results of a time-dependent computer model of a dipole thunderstorm revealed that there are numerous similarities between the time-averaged electrical properties and the steady-state properties of an active thunderstorm. Thus, the electrical behavior of the atmosphere in the vicinity of a thunderstorm can be determined with a formulation similar to what was first described by Holzer and Saxon (1952). From the Maxwell continuity equation of electric current, a simple analytical equation was derived that expresses a thunderstorm's average current contribution to the global electric circuit in terms of the generator current within the thundercloud, the intracloud lightning current, the cloud-to-ground lightning current, the altitudes of the charge centers, and the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. This equation was found to be nearly as accurate as the more computationally expensive numerical model, even when it is applied to a thunderstorm with a reduced conductivity thundercloud, a time-varying generator current, a varying flash rate, and a changing lightning mix.

Driscoll, Kevin T.↗

Turbulence near thunderstorm tops

For several years, scientists at San Jose State University, NASA-Ames, and the University of Arizona have carried out cooperative research programs to understand the causes and effects of severe turbulence. The primary sources of data for this work are Digital Flight Data Recorder (DFDR) tapes from airliners that have been involved in turbulence incidents. A significant result of the analysis of these data has been the identification and quantification of the turbulence causes. Turbulence signatures include breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, large amplitude mountain lee waves, turbulence in and around thunderstorms, and maneuvering. The requirements that must be met for a turbulence incident to be included in the NASA study are rather straightforward: (1) severe or greater turbulence must have been reported (usually with passenger injuries) and (2) the flight data tapes must be available. Despite these rather general criteria, and the fact that our cases are drawn from a wide geographical area over the U.S. and the Atlantic Ocean, we have found an interesting bias in our sample. Of 12 cases at cruise altitude, four were definitely associated with thunderstorms and two are suspected thunderstorm cases. The others were due to mountain waves, CAT, high level windshear/maneuvering, or to causes not yet determined. Although our sample is small, these numbers have raised several questions, not the least of which are: How pervasive is the problem of aircraft encounters with severe turbulence in or near thunderstorm tops (TNTT)? Given the available visible and radar evidence of thunderstorms, Why do such incidents occur? Can anything be done to allevaite the problem? This paper outlines some very preliminary efforts to answer these questions. In the following sections, physical and statistical characteristics of TNTT are discussed (Section 2), TNTT causes are summarized (Section 3), current recommendations for TNTT avoidance are reviewed (Section 4), and some suggestions to ameliorate the problem are given (Section 5).

Lester, Peter F.↗

Extreme Thunderstorms as Seen by Satellite

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ (decibels relative to Z) reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI and AMSR-E to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record holders for each satellite. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. Higher resolution data from the field program MC3E and possibly from IPHEX will be considered for context.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

Extremely Low Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures Due to Thunderstorms

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. Automated quality control flags or other procedures in retrieval algorithms could treat these measurements as errors, because they fall outside the expected bounds. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI, AMSR-E, and the new GMI to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record-holders for each satellite. The lowest AMSR-E 36.5 GHz brightness temperatures associated with deep convection have been in Argentina; the lowest 89.0 GHz brightness temperatures were from Typhoon Bolaven in the Philippine Sea. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. The study is largely motivated by the new GMI sensor on the Global Precipitation Mission core satellite, launched in February 2014, with its high resolution expected to reveal unprecedented low brightness temperatures when extreme events are encountered.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations

Hazardous weather related to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, high-winds, and hail cause significant damage globally to life and property every year. Yet the impact on these storms from a warming climate remains a difficult task due to their transient nature. Here, we investigate the change in large-scale environments in which severe thunderstorms form during twenty-first century warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in a group of RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations. Severe potential is measured in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and vertical wind-shear during the severe seasons in three regions which are known to currently be prone to severe hazards: North America, subtropical South America, and eastern India and Bangladesh. In every region, environments supportive for severe thunderstorms are projected to increase during the warm season months in both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the twenty-first century. The number of days supportive for severe thunderstorms increases by several days per season over the vast majority of each region by the end of the century. Analyzing the CAPE and shear trends during the twenty-first century, we find seasonally and regionally specific changes driving the increased severe potential. Twenty-first century surface warming is clearly driving a robust increase in CAPE in all regions, however poleward displacement of vertical shear in the future leads to the displacement of severe environments over North America and South America. The results found here relate that severe impacts in the future cannot be generalized globally, and that regionally specific changes in vertical shear may drive future movement of regions prone to severe weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A study of some effects of vertical shear on thunderstorms

Evidence is presented for the existence of vortices and vortex pairs in thunderstorms. A preliminary parameterized model of the nonthermal generation of thunderstorm vortices derived from field observations of storms and laboratory observations of a jet in crossflow is reported, together with an explanation of how such a model might be used to guide analysis of mesoscale rawinsonde, radar, and satellite data toward an improved capability for prediction of thunderstorm motion and growth. Preliminary analyses of radar and satellite data from Atmospheric Variability Experiment IV are used with available rawinsonde data to develop a correlation between wind shears, instability, and thunderstorm motion and development. Specific studies are recommended for best development of concepts and utilization of data from Atmospheric Variability and Atmospheric Variability Severe Storms Experiments.

Connell, J.↗

JSC thunderstorm experiment results

To gain more insight into the various effects of lightning and thunderstorms on future shuttle vehicle launch and landing operations, an experiment was conducted to obtain data on the nature of electric fields in the vicinity of thunderstorms and particularly in the region of cumulonimbus cloud anvils during their various stages of build-up, maturity, and dissipation. These data supplement the airborne electric field data collected during the summer of 1975 in support of the Apollo Soyuz Test Project and the Viking launches. A Learjet aircraft was outfitted with four special electric field meters for collecting data. The onboard aircraft radar was also used to investigate cells embedded in large thunderstorm systems such as those found in frontal and squall line activities. Data were collected from 33 storm cells and used to establish a launch criteria to preclude triggering lightning during shuttle vehicle operations in close proximity to thunderstorms.

Source record↗

Detection of severe thunderstorms using short interval geosynchronous satellite data

The potential and limitations of using short interval (3-7 minutes) geosynchronous, infrared data to ascertain thunderstorm intensity, and therefore indirectly detect severe thunderstorms are discussed. Thunderstorms on four case study days were analyzed over selected areas and time periods using SMS/GOES data, and derived satellite based intensity parameters were compared to severe weather reports. Young, growing thunderstorms are intensity rated using the rate of decrease of the satellite observed cloud top minimum equivalent blackbody temperature. Since most storms cannot be observed until they penetrate through the cirrus overcast produced by previous convection, minimum cloud temperature and rate of blackbody temperature isotherm expansion are then used as intensity indicators. Results are presented and problems and limitations of the techniques and the data are examined. In addition, an analysis of cloud top height variations (as viewed by the satellite) in relation to tornado touchdown times and, in a few cases, to mesocyclone formation times is also presented.

Adler, R. F.↗

Numeric and fluid dynamic representation of tornadic double vortex thunderstorms

Current understanding of a double vortex thunderstorm involves a pair of contra-rotating vortices that exists in the dynamic updraft. The pair is believed to be a result of a blocking effect which occurs when a cylindrical thermal updraft of a thunderstorm protrudes into the upper level air and there is a large amount of vertical wind shear between the low level and upper level air layers. A numerical tornado prediction scheme based on the double vortex thunderstorm was developed. The Energy-Shear Index (ESI) is part of the scheme and is calculated from radiosonde measurements. The ESI incorporates parameters representative of thermal instability and blocking effect, and indicates appropriate environments for which the development of double vortex thunderstorms is likely.

Connell, J. R.↗

Stratospheric conductivity variations over thunderstorms

This paper reports the first in-situ observation of variations in the electrical conductivity over thunderstorms at 26 km altitude. The vector electric field, positive and negative polar conductivity, and optical lightning power/flash were measured by payloads on superpressure balloons in the Southern Hemisphere in early 1984. It is found that in 72 percent of the thunderstorm periods observed (or in 23 of 32 periods) there were clear cases of conductivity variations while the balloons were over the thunderstorms. Examples from two separate balloons at widely separated dates and locations showing both daytime and nighttime events are presented. The conductivity measurements are made with the relaxation technique, and the vector field measurements are based on the double Langmuir probe high-impedance method. It is found that the positive and negative conductivity measurements vary independently and have a different temporal profile than the dc electric field. The polar conductivity variations can exceed a factor of 2 at this altitude. In seven of the nine most intense thunderstorm events the total conductivity increased, while in only one of these nine events did it decrease (one event had no change). Implications of these observations for global current patterns are discussed.

Holzworth, R. H.↗

The use of Doppler radar to help forecast the development of thunderstorms

The role of Doppler radars in forecasting the location and timing of the initiation of thunderstorms both over Kennedy Space Center and central Florida is analyzed. The data used in this analysis was collected with two Doppler radars with high temporal and spatial resolution throughout the troposphere. Previous studies of thunderstorm initiation in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center, including synoptic and site-specific observations are outlined. As a result of the analysis of nine cases of thunderstorm initiation, it is concluded that an expert system could be developed that would take input data from the existing field mill network, instrumented tower network, lightning detection system, from sounding, and from Doppler-radar-based algorithms. Such a system would be able to determine a probability of thunderstorm development in the next 10, 20, and 30 minutes for the area of interest.

Eilts, Michael D.↗

Observations of severe turbulence near thunderstorm tops

Data derived from the flight tapes of two airliners that experienced severe turbulence near thunderstorm tops are used to produce quantitative descriptions of the turbulence and its environment. The likely turbulence-producing processes include a three-dimensional turbulent wake in the lee of a squall line and an updraft in the top of a thunderstorm. Results suggest that current procedures for using surface and airborne weather radar for routing aircraft near thunderstorm tops should be reexamined. Also, although useful rules for safe flight near thunderstorm tops already exist, there is evidence that they are not universally applied.

Pantley, K. C.↗

Thunderstorm coupling to the magnetosphere and associated ionospheric effects

This project deals with the coupling of electromagnetic energy released during a thunderstorm to the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. Both the effects of an individual lightning event as well the aggregate of all the lightning events during a thunderstorm are considered. Energy in the very low frequency (VLF) band can play a variety of roles in the magnetospheric and ionospheric physics: generation of plasmaspheric hiss believed to be responsible for the slot region in the radiation belts, generation of lower hybrid waves that can heat ions in the auroral and subauroral regions, precipitation of energetic electrons, ionospheric heating etc. While these phenomena have been identified, and characterized to some extent, the influence and role of thunderstorm energy on the magnetosphere and ionosphere at a global scale is not known. Only recently, simultaneous high resolution (temporal and spatial) data sets from ground based lightning detectors and space and ground based VLF detectors have become available, and thus it has become possible to raise a question of the kind mentioned above and try to answer it quantitatively. Work on the correlation between individual lightning discharges in a thunderstorm as detected by the lightning network and the whistlers observed on the DE-1 satellite continued during this period. Results are summarized.

Inan, Umran S.↗

Red Sprites and Blue Jets: Transient Electrical Effects of Thunderstorms on the Middle and Upper Atmospheres

Four new and diverse classes of energetic electrical effects of thunderstorms have been documented over the past 5 years. Two of these classes, called red sprites and blue jets, are large-scale optical emissions excited by lightning. Together they span the entire distance between tops of some thunderstorms and the ionosphere. Gamma-ray (1 MeV) bursts and extremely intense VHF radio bursts some 10(exp 4) times larger than normally produced by lightning have been observed from low Earth orbit and are also believed to originate in thunderstorms. Taken together, these newly discovered classes of natural electrical phenomena provide evidence that thunderstorms are both more energetic and capable of electrically interacting with the upper atmosphere and ionosphere to a far greater degree than has been appreciated in the past. Here, characteristics of red sprites and blue jets are summarized.

Sentman, D. D.↗

Electric Field Profiles over Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, and Thunderstorms with an Instrumented ER-2 Aircraft

Over the past several years, we have flown a set of calibrated electric field meters (FMs) on the NASA high altitude ER-2 aircraft over oceanic and landbased storms in a number of locations. These included tropical oceanic cyclones and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic ocean during the Third and Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3,1998; CAMEX-4, 2001), thunderstorms in Florida during the TExas FLorida UNderflight (TEFLUN, 1998) experiment, tropical thunderstorms in Brazil during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (TRMM LBA, 1999), and finally, hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Western Pacific and thunderstorms in Central America during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP, 2005) mission. Between these various missions we have well over 50 sorties that provide a unique insights on the different electrical environment, evolution and activity occurring in and around these various types of storms. In general, the electric fields over the tropical oceanic storms and hurricanes were less than a few kilovolts per meter at the ER-2 altitude, while the lightning rates were low. Land-based thunderstorms often produced high lightning activity and correspondingly higher electric fields.

Mach, Doug M.↗