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A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Short, David A.↗

Aeolian Sand Transport in the Planetary Context: Respective Roles of Aerodynamic and Bed-Dilatancy Thresholds

The traditional view of aeolian sand transport generally estimates flux from the perspective of aerodynamic forces creating the airborne grain population, although it has been recognized that "reptation" causes a significant part of the total airborne flux; reptation involves both ballistic injection of grains into the air stream by the impact of saltating grains as well as the "nudging" of surface grains into a creeping motion. Whilst aerodynamic forces may initiate sand motion, it is proposed here that within a fully-matured grain cloud, flux is actually governed by two thresholds: an aerodynamic threshold, and a bed-dilatancy threshold. It is the latter which controls the reptation population, and its significance increases proportionally with transport energy. Because we only have experience with terrestrial sand transport, extrapolations of aeolian theory to Mars and Venus have adjusted only the aerodynamic factor, taking gravitational forces and atmospheric density as the prime variables in the aerodynamic equations, but neglecting reptation. The basis for our perspective on the importance of reptation and bed dilatancy is a set of experiments that were designed to simulate sand transport across the surface of a martian dune. Using a modified sporting crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism, individual grains of sand were fired at loose sand targets with glancing angles typical of saltation impact; grains were projected at about 80 m/s to simulate velocities commensurate with those predicted for extreme martian aeolian conditions. The sabot impelling method permitted study of individual impacts without the masking effect of bed mobilization encountered in wind-tunnel studies. At these martian impact velocities, grains produced small craters formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. Unexpectedly, the craters were not elongated, despite glancing impact; the craters were very close to circular in planform. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. Elastic energy deposited in the bed by the impacting grain creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains from closed to open packing, and grains are consequently able to eject themselves forcefully from the impact site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. There is a great temptation to draw parallels with cratering produced by meteorite impacts, but a rigorous search for common modelling ground between the two phenomena has not been conducted at this time. For every impact of an aerodynamically energized grain, there are several hundred grains ejected into the wind for the high-energy transport that might occur on Mars. Many of these grains will themselves become subject to the boundary layer's aerodynamic lift forces (their motion will not immediately die and add to the creep population), and these grains will become indistinguishable from those lifted entirely by aerodynamic forces. As each grain impacts the bed, it will eject even more grains into the flow. A cascading effect will take place, but because it must be finite in its growth, damping will occur as the number of grains set in motion causes mid-air collisions that prevent much of the impact energy from reaching the surface of the bed -thus creating a dynamic equilibrium in a high-density saltation cloud. It is apparent that for a given impact energy, the stress field permits a smaller volume of grains to convert to open packing as the size of the bed grains increases, or as the energy of the "percussive" grain decreases (by decrease in velocity or mass). Thus, the mass of the "repercussive" grain population that is ejected from the impact site becomes a function of the scale of the stress field in relation to the scale of the bed material (self-similarity being applicable if both bed size and energy are simultaneously adjusted). In other words, in a very high energy aeolian system where an aerodynamically raised grain can ballistically raise many more grains, the amount of material lifted into the wind becomes largely a function of a dilatancy threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, grains are repercussively injected into the saltation cloud. The "dilatancy threshold" may be defined in terms of the saltation percussive force required to convert the bed, through elastic response, from a closed to an open packing system. If open packing cannot be created, the grains cannot escape from the impact site, even though the elastic deformation and percussive force may be able to reorganize the grains with respect to one another. As the crossbow experiments showed, for an ever-increasing bed grain size, a point is reached when no material can be moved because the energy of the percussive grain is insufficient to dilate the relatively coarse bed. Although this seems to be stating the obvious -- that too little energy will not cause the bed to splash -- the consequences of exceeding the "splash threshold" by dilatancy are not so obvious for high-energy aeolian transport. It is noted that the force required to elastically dilate the bed has to overcome Coulombic grain attractions such as dipole-dipole coupling, dielectric, monopole, contact-induced dipole attractions, van der Waals forces, molecular monolayer capillary forces, as well as the mechanical interlocking frictional resistance of the grains. On Mars, it is predicted that the dilatancy threshold may be the prime control of grain flux. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

Rotational and Translational Velocity and Acceleration Thresholds for the Onset of Cybersickness in Virtual Reality

This paper determined rotational and translational velocity and acceleration thresholds for the onset of cybersickness. Cybersickness causes discomfort and discourages the widespread use of virtual reality systems for both recreational and professional use. Visual motion or optic flow is known to be one of the main causes of cybersickness due to the sensory conflict it creates with the vestibular system. The aim of this experiment is to detect rotational and translational velocity and acceleration thresholds that cause the onset of cybersickness. Participants were exposed to a moving particle field in virtual reality for a few seconds per run. The field moved in different directions (longitudinal, lateral, roll, and yaw), with different velocity profiles (steady and accelerating), and different densities. Using a staircase procedure, that controlled the speed or acceleration of the field, we detected the threshold at which participant started to feel temporary symptoms of cybersickness. The optic flow was quantified for each motion type and by modifying the number of features, the same amount of optic flow was present in each scene. Having the same optic flow in each scene allows a direct comparison of the thresholds. The results show that the velocity and acceleration thresholds for rotational optic flow were significantly lower than for translational optic flow. The thresholds suggestively decreased with the decreasing particle density of the scene. Finally, it was found that all the rotational and translational thresholds strongly correlate with each other. While the mean values of the thresholds could be used as guidelines to develop virtual reality applications, the high variability between individuals implies that the individual tuning of motion controls would be more effective to reduce cybersickness while minimizing the impact on the experience of immersion.

Terenzi, Lorenzo↗

Empirical scaling of the L–H threshold power for metal wall tokamaks using a multi-device database

The empirical scaling for the H-mode power threshold in tokamaks has been revisited using a database with threshold data from machines with a metallic first wall as part of International Tokamak Physics Activity (ITPA) task TC-26. The database contains discharges from ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) (W), JET (Be/W) and Alcator C-Mod (Mo). This was motivated by reports that in like-for-like discharges the power threshold was reduced by approximately 30% after the change from carbon based to metallic first wall materials on AUG (Ryter et al 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 113003) and JET (Maggi et al 2014 Nucl. Fusion 54 023007). The database contains L–H transition data for all hydrogen isotopes and mixtures, including T and DT from the recent JET campaigns. Compared to the ITPA 2008 scaling (Martin et al 2008 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 123 012033), the metal wall scaling has a smaller magnetic field exponent but a larger density exponent. We present an additional parameter to capture the strong dependence of the L–H power threshold (approx. factor 2) on the magnetic configuration in the divertor on JET. The scaling recovers the approximate inverse isotope mass scaling of the threshold power. Alternative scalings involving the plasma current and poloidal magnetic field are explored. Despite the reduction in threshold observed earlier, the scalings based on the metal wall database do not necessarily extrapolate to a lower threshold for ITER compared to the ITPA 2008 scaling, especially at high density. The divertor configuration effect induces the largest uncertainty in the extrapolation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Operability thresholds for thermally damaged EBW detonators

Operability thresholds that differentiate between functional RP-87 exploding bridge wire (EBW) detonators and nonfunctional RP-87 EBW detonators (duds) were determined by measuring the time delay between initiation and early wall movement (function time). The detonators were inserted into an externally heated hollow cylinder of aluminum and fired with current flow from a charged capacitor using an exploding bridge wire (EBW initiated). Functioning detonators responded like unheated pristine detonators when the function time was 4 μs or less. The operability thresholds of the detonators were characterized with a simple decomposition cookoff model calibrated using a modified version of the Sandia Instrumented Thermal Ignition (SITI) experiment. These thresholds are based on the calculated state of the PETN when the detonators fire. The operability threshold is proportional to the positive temperature difference (ΔT) between the maximum temperature within the PETN and the onset of decomposition (~406 K). Furthermore, the temperature difference alone was not sufficient to define the operability threshold. The operability threshold was also proportional to the time that the PETN had been at elevated temperatures. That is, failure was proportional to both temperature and reaction rate. The reacted gas fraction is used in the current work for the reaction correlation. Melting of PETN also had a significant effect on the operability threshold. Detonator failure occurred when the maximum temperature exceeded the nominal melting point of PETN (414 K) for 45±5 s or more.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Statistics-Based Threshold for the RMS-Energy Oscillation Detector

System operators and reliability coordinators currently rely on extensive baselining studies to set thresholds for their oscillation detectors. The resulting thresholds are based largely on engineering judgment and may vary significantly between organizations. In this paper, statistical distribution theory is used to derive a detection threshold for the widely deployed root-mean-square (RMS)-energy detector. This expression provides a theoretical basis for the detector's configuration, simplifies the process of selecting the threshold, and enables improved consistency among organizations that need to coordinate during system-wide events. Three methods for calculating the threshold using synchrophasor measurements are also proposed. These methods ensure that the threshold can be calculated reliably for various applications. Tests with simulated and field-measured data demonstrate that the statistics-based threshold provides consistent detection of grid disturbances while maintaining a low probability of false alarm.

Follum, James D.↗

Saltation threshold on Mars - The effect of interparticle force, surface roughness, and low atmospheric density

Results are reported for wind-tunnel experiments performed to determine the threshold friction speed of particles with different densities. Experimentally determined threshold speeds are plotted as a function of particle diameter and in terms of threshold parameter vs particle friction Reynolds number. The curves are compared with those of previous experiments, and an A-B curve is plotted to show differences in threshold speed due to differences in size distributions and particle shapes. Effects of particle diameter are investigated, an expression for threshold speed is derived by considering the equilibrium forces acting on a single particle, and other approximately valid expressions are evaluated. It is shown that the assumption of universality of the A-B curve is in error at very low pressures for small particles and that only predictions which take account of both Reynolds number and effects of interparticle forces yield reasonable agreement with experimental data. Effects of nonerodible surface roughness are examined, and threshold speeds computed with allowance for this factor are compared with experimental values. Threshold friction speeds on Mars are then estimated for a surface pressure of 5 mbar, taking into account all the factors considered.

Iversen, J. D.↗

Thresholds for detection of constant rotary acceleration during vibratory rotary acceleration

The effects of vibratory angular acceleration on detection thresholds for constant angular acceleration in a dynamic flight simulator are reported in three experiments. Detection thresholds were determined for 10 pilots and four nonpilots using a random, double-staircase procedure while the subjects sat erect in a device which rotated about an earth-vertical axis. Constant angular acceleration were presented for 0.5 and 1.0 s with concurrent, vibratory angular acceleration at 1 and 5 Hz, and thresholds with no vibratory angular acceleration were established. The thresholds were obtained while the subjects observed a visual reference in the enclosed cockpit in two experiments and in total darkness in a third. The results confirmed earlier experiments showing an inverse relationship between the duration of constant angular acceleration and detection threshold and showed that the detection thresholds in darkness were higher than with a visual reference present. Two analyses of variance revealed no significant differences in thresholds across the three vibration conditions. These results indicate that vibratory angular acceleration of fairly high levels can be present in a dynamic flight simulator without masking the pilot's ability to detect either maneuver or disturbance motions.

Clark, B.↗

Cloud-screening for Africa using a geographically and seasonally variable infrared threshold

A spatially variable monthly, infrared cloud-threshold data base has been used to screen cloud-contaminated observations from radiances measured by the NOAA-9 AVHRR over Africa. Cloud-screening through a monthly average infrared threshold based on measured surface air temperature, which is geographically dependent, shows an improvement over using a seasonally and geographically independent thermal cloud threshold of 287 K. It is found that differences in cloud-screening for these two thresholds occur for cases of lower altitude clouds or subpixel clouds where the radiative temperature is higher than the 287 K infrared threshold, yet colder than the variable threshold developed by Stowe et al. (1988) for the Nimbus-7 global cloud climatology. The variable IR threshold is shown to be effective over persistently cloud-covered regions, such as the coastal region of the Gulf of Guinea, but may introduce some erroneous cloud identifications over mountains.

Eck, T. F.↗

Analyses of Fatigue Crack Growth and Closure Near Threshold Conditions for Large-Crack Behavior

A plasticity-induced crack-closure model was used to study fatigue crack growth and closure in thin 2024-T3 aluminum alloy under constant-R and constant-K(sub max) threshold testing procedures. Two methods of calculating crack-opening stresses were compared. One method was based on a contact-K analyses and the other on crack-opening-displacement (COD) analyses. These methods gave nearly identical results under constant-amplitude loading, but under threshold simulations the contact-K analyses gave lower opening stresses than the contact COD method. Crack-growth predictions tend to support the use of contact-K analyses. Crack-growth simulations showed that remote closure can cause a rapid rise in opening stresses in the near threshold regime for low-constraint and high applied stress levels. Under low applied stress levels and high constraint, a rise in opening stresses was not observed near threshold conditions. But crack-tip-opening displacement (CTOD) were of the order of measured oxide thicknesses in the 2024 alloy under constant-R simulations. In contrast, under constant-K(sub max) testing the CTOD near threshold conditions were an order-of-magnitude larger than measured oxide thicknesses. Residual-plastic deformations under both constant-R and constant-K(sub max) threshold simulations were several times larger than the expected oxide thicknesses. Thus, residual-plastic deformations, in addition to oxide and roughness, play an integral part in threshold development.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

Sputtering Threshold Energies of Heavy Ions

Sputter erosion in ion thrusters has been measured in lifetests at discharge voltages as low as 25 V. Thruster operation at this discharge voltage results in component erosion rates sufficiently low to satisfy most mission requirements. It has been recognized that most of the internal sputtering in ion thrusters is done by doubly charged ions. Knowledge of the sputtering threshold voltage of a xenon molybdenum system would be beneficial in understanding the sputtering process as well as making more accurate calculations of the sputtering rates of ion thruster components. Sputtering threshold energies calculated from various formulations found in the literature results in values ranging from 28 to 200 eV. It is evident that some of these formulations cannot be relied upon to provide sputtering thresholds with any degree of accuracy. This paper re-examines the threshold energies measurements made in the early sixties by Askerov and Sena, and Stuart and Wehner. The threshold voltages as derived by Askerov and au have been reevaluated by using a different extrapolation method of sputter yields at low ion energies. The resulting threshold energies are in general similar to those measured by Stuart and Wehner. An empirical relationship is derived,for mercury and xenon ions for the ratio of the sputtering threshold energy to the sublimation energy as a function of the ratio of target to ion atomic mass.

Mantenieks, Maris A.↗

Bayesian estimation of dose thresholds

An example is described of Bayesian estimation of radiation absorbed dose thresholds (subsequently simply referred to as dose thresholds) using a specific parametric model applied to a data set on mice exposed to 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons. A Weibull based relative risk model with a dose threshold parameter was used to analyse, as an example, lung cancer mortality and determine the posterior density for the threshold dose after single exposures to 60Co gamma rays or fission neutrons from the JANUS reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The data consisted of survival, censoring times and cause of death information for male B6CF1 unexposed and exposed mice. The 60Co gamma whole-body doses for the two exposed groups were 0.86 and 1.37 Gy. The neutron whole-body doses were 0.19 and 0.38 Gy. Marginal posterior densities for the dose thresholds for neutron and gamma radiation were calculated with numerical integration and found to have quite different shapes. The density of the threshold for 60Co is unimodal with a mode at about 0.50 Gy. The threshold density for fission neutrons declines monotonically from a maximum value at zero with increasing doses. The posterior densities for all other parameters were similar for the two radiation types.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Crack Growth Behavior in the Threshold Region for High Cycle Fatigue Loading

This paper describes the results of a research program conducted to improve the understanding of fatigue crack growth rate behavior in the threshold growth rate region and to answer a question on the validity of threshold region test data. The validity question relates to the view held by some experimentalists that using the ASTM load shedding test method does not produce valid threshold test results and material properties. The question involves the fanning behavior observed in threshold region of da/dN plots for some materials in which the low R-ratio data fans out from the high R-ratio data. This fanning behavior or elevation of threshold values in the low R-ratio tests is generally assumed to be caused by an increase in crack closure in the low R-ratio tests. Also, the increase in crack closure is assumed by some experimentalists to result from using the ASTM load shedding test procedure. The belief is that this procedure induces load history effects which cause remote closure from plasticity and/or roughness changes in the surface morphology. However, experimental studies performed by the authors have shown that the increase in crack closure is a result of extensive crack tip bifurcations that can occur in some materials, particularly in aluminum alloys, when the crack tip cyclic yield zone size becomes less than the grain size of the alloy. This behavior is related to the high stacking fault energy (SFE) property of aluminum alloys which results in easier slip characteristics. Therefore, the fanning behavior which occurs in aluminum alloys is a function of intrinsic dislocation property of the alloy, and therefore, the fanned data does represent the true threshold properties of the material. However, for the corrosion sensitive steel alloys tested in laboratory air, the occurrence of fanning results from fretting corrosion at the crack tips, and these results should not be considered to be representative of valid threshold properties because the fanning is eliminated when testing is performed in dry air.

Forman, R. G.↗

CARA Risk Assessment Thresholds

Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

conjunction↗

J/ψ Near-Threshold Photoproduction off the Proton and Neutron with CLAS12

In recent years, J/? photoproduction in the near-threshold region has seen a renewed theoretical interest due to the wealth of information it has to offer. Near-threshold J/? photopro-duction proceeds through the exchange of gluons in the t-channel and is expected to provide unique insight about the nucleon gluonic gravitational form factors (GFFs). Previous studies at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) in Virginia, USA, have already measured the total and differential cross section of J/? near-threshold photoproduction on the free proton. This thesis presents the first measurements of J/? near-threshold photoproduction on the bound proton and bound neutron in a deuteron target. The CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer at 12 GeV (CLAS12) based at JLab?s Hall B uses a 11 GeV electron beam impinging on a fixed liquid deuteron target. J/? is then produced via the exchange of a quasi-real photon and decays to a lepton pair which is detected along-side the recoil nucleon by CLAS12. Analysis procedures and in particular machine learning based techniques were developed in order to correctly identify final state particles and select J/? photoproduction events. The total and differential cross section of J/? near-threshold photoproduction on the bound proton and bound neutron were then measured from the detected J/? photoproduction events. The measurements of the cross sections on the bound proton and bound neutron agree well within their statistical uncertainty. This is consistent with the assumed two-gluon exchange production mechanism which is isospin invariant. Overall a first measurement of the J/? near-threshold photoproduction cross sections on the bound proton and bound neutron was achieved. A better understanding of the mechanical properties of the nucleon, such as pressure and mass distributions, can be obtained by relating J/? production to the nucleon GFFs. This opens the way for exciting new insights into the internal structure of the nucleon, and in particular of the nucleon?s gluonic content. An upcoming overhaul of the CLAS12 reconstruction will increase the reconstruction efficiency and the statis- tical precision of the preliminary measurements described in this thesis, with an expected gain in statistics of at least 50%. Future upgrades at JLab will allow to test some of the theoretical assumptions made in relating J/? near-threshold photoproduction to the nucleon GFFs

Tyson, Richard↗

Characterization of the fatigue threshold behavior of UHMWPE

Ultra-high-molecular-weight-polyethylene (UHMWPE) has been the material of choice for bearings in total joint replacements (TJRs) for decades as a result of its excellent wear resistance, chemical inertness, energetic toughness, low friction, and biocompatibility. Utilization of this polymer in orthopedic devices requires oxidation, wear, and fatigue resistance. Balancing these important properties by tailoring processing techniques and modulating microstructural features has been an ongoing endeavor in the field. Research into the clinical applications of UHMWPE has primarily focused on the challenges of wear and oxidation while studies into the realm of fatigue have been more limited. Literature gaps exist in fully understanding the fatigue crack initiation near notches or propagation of small existing flaws in UHMWPE used in TJRs. In particular, the characterization of the fatigue thresholds and near-threshold fatigue behavior of orthopedic grade UHMWPE has yet to be thoroughly explored. In this work, we characterized the fatigue crack arrest threshold of clinically-relevant UHMWPE formulations. Correlations between the fatigue thresholds and bulk mechanical properties as well as microstructural properties were examined across these medical resins. The important role played by crosslinking in influencing the fatigue performance of UHMWPE is highlighted in this study. In addition, it is established that J-integral fracture toughness is the best predictor of fatigue thresholds and could possibly be used as a stand-in metric for fatigue performance if thresholds cannot be directly ascertained. Finally, this study corroborates that the true constitutive parameters best describe the mechanical behavior of UHMWPE.

Cross-linking↗

Global variations in critical drought thresholds that impact vegetation

ABSTRACT Identifying the thresholds of drought that, if crossed, suppress vegetation functioning is vital for accurate quantification of how land ecosystems respond to climate variability and change. We present a globally applicable framework to identify drought thresholds for vegetation responses to different levels of known soil-moisture deficits using four remotely sensed vegetation proxies spanning 2001–2018. The thresholds identified represent critical inflection points for changing vegetation responses from highly resistant to highly vulnerable in response to drought stress, and as a warning signal for substantial vegetation impacts. Drought thresholds varied geographically, with much lower percentiles of soil-moisture anomalies in vegetated areas covered by more forests, corresponding to a comparably stronger capacity to mitigate soil water deficit stress in forested ecosystems. Generally, those lower thresholds are detected in more humid climates. State-of-the-art land models, however, overestimated thresholds of soil moisture (i.e. overestimating drought impacts), especially in more humid areas with higher forest covers and arid areas with few forest covers. Based on climate model projections, we predict that the risk of vegetation damage will increase by the end of the twenty-first century in some hotspots like East Asia, Europe, Amazon, southern Australia and eastern and southern Africa. Our data-based results will inform projections on future drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and provide an effective tool for drought management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of Probabilistic Shock Initiation Thresholds of Energetic Materials Through Evolution of Thermal-Mechanical Dissipation and Reactive Heating

The ignition threshold of an energetic material (EM) quantifies the macroscopic conditions for the onset of self-sustaining chemical reactions. The threshold is an important theoretical and practical measure of material attributes that relate to safety and reliability. Historically, the thresholds are measured experimentally. In this work, we present a new Lagrangian computational framework for establishing the probabilistic ignition thresholds of heterogeneous EM out of the evolutions of coupled mechanical-thermal-chemical processes using mesoscale simulations. Furthermore, the simulations explicitly account for microstructural heterogeneities, constituent properties, and interfacial processes and capture processes responsible for the development of material damage and the formation of hotspots in which chemical reactions initiate. The specific mechanisms tracked include viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, fracture, post-fracture contact, frictional heating, heat conduction, reactive chemical heating, gaseous product generation, and convective heat transfer. To determine the ignition threshold, the minimum macroscopic loading required to achieve self-sustaining chemical reactions with a rate of reactive heat generation exceeding the rate of heat loss due to conduction and other dissipative mechanisms is determined. Probabilistic quantification of the processes and the thresholds are obtained via the use of statistically equivalent microstructure sample sets (SEMSS). The predictions are in agreement with available experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗