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Technology Directions for the 21st Century

The Office of Space Communications (OSC) is tasked by NASA to conduct a planning process to meet NASA's science mission and other communications and data processing requirements. A set of technology trend studies was undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for OSC to identify quantitative data that can be used to predict performance of electronic equipment in the future to assist in the planning process. Only commercially available, off-the-shelf technology was included. For each technology area considered, the current state of the technology is discussed, future applications that could benefit from use of the technology are identified, and likely future developments of the technology are described. The impact of each technology area on NASA operations is presented together with a discussion of the feasibility and risk associated with its development. An approximate timeline is given for the next 15 to 25 years to indicate the anticipated evolution of capabilities within each of the technology areas considered. This volume contains four chapters: one each on technology trends for database systems, computer software, neural and fuzzy systems, and artificial intelligence. The principal study results are summarized at the beginning of each chapter.

Crimi, Giles F.

Condition monitoring of wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies, recent trends, and future outlook

As global wind capacity expands, reducing operations and maintenance costs is critical to lowering the levelized cost of energy. This paper explores the state of the art in condition monitoring and prognostic strategies for wind turbine drivetrains, which are among the most failure-prone and maintenance-intensive subsystems. Current diagnostic methodologies are evaluated, covering supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, high-frequency vibration and acoustic analysis, machine learning and digital twin frameworks. Finally, practical challenges are identified that limit wide-scale industrial adoption, in order to guide future research and industrial efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY

An Approach for Defining IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using autonomous vehicles. The focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is to overcome AAM’s safety assurance challenges. The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system designs. This paper describes an approach for defining SFCs based on technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in voluntary safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach would identify potential SFCs that further expand the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M) functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS. Safety implications that will result from integration of AAM in the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) were addressed in National Academies committees reports on AAM and IASMS. Development of a ConOps for IASMS was a top recommendation and can be represented as a reframing of safety assurance that builds on real-time alerting such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, and adds the more encompassing in-time temporal parameter in recognition of the different timelines for collecting and assessing safety data for risk mitigations. For example, mining for safety trends from data sources such as the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing system occurs over a longer time period. Research on AAM operations poses that SFCs can be designed to monitor the safety margin appropriate for AAM including with regards to the distance between current flight parameters and nominal ideal conditions. These in-time comparisons will become more complex as the density of operations increases at least in certain areas and can include planned and actual 4D trajectory, and in-time comparisons having implications on conflict modeling and prediction including expected and actual departure time, fix/waypoint crossing times, and arrival time. These comparisons would be integrated as part of SFCs that redefine and inform new safety margin. An increased safety margin improves management of operational risks while reducing the potential for anomalies. An increased safety margin also has implications for operator confidence in the certainty of its operations and trust in automation. Technology trends in research could be used to refine existing SFCs and define needs for additional SFCs that provide safety improvements to the design and operation of vehicles, airspace design, and operator performance requirements. NASA is developing innovative approaches to safeguard against major accidents and incidents that have occurred in the NAS and those anticipated with the inclusion of envisioned AAM operations. The innovations use operational performance data to monitor, detect, and predict flight variations exceeding safe nominal patterns, such as would be caused by navigational error, severe weather complications, or hijacking of UAS controls. These innovative approaches have high potential to prevent accidents and incidents in the new AAM era. It is anticipated that elements of the innovations will evolve into SFCs for the IASMS. Voluntary safety reports can be monitored to identify anomalies related to design or operational performance risks. Reports could be periodically monitored and assessed for specific topics. Reports might serve as weak signals or precursors indicative of emergent risk such as when combined with other safety information. The architecture could include SFCs that are based on voluntary safety reports recognizing the periodic temporal nature of data analysis. As previously mentioned, aviation accidents with their causal and contributing precursors can inform the need for SFCs in the IASMS. Accidents and incidents at San Francisco International Airport such as Asiana 214 and Air Canada 759 illustrate how combinations of different factors lead to increased risk. These types of precursors and different factors have implications on the types of SFCs that could be needed to monitor and manage different sources and types of design and operational risk. Continuing to assure the safety of AAM as designs and operations gain in complexity can be accompanied by defining SFCs that also increase in complexity. These SFCs can leverage information from findings and recommendations synthesized across on-going research, voluntary safety reports, and accident and incident reports. These SFCs can serve to refine accuracy of algorithms and resolve limitations with current practices. The IASMS architecture represents the framework for the SFCs and their critical role in safety assurance.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System

Emerging Trends and Technologies Used for the Identification, Detection, and Characterisation of Plant-Parasitic Nematode Infestation in Crops

Accurate identification and estimation of the population densities of microscopic, soil-dwelling plant-parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are essential, as PPNs cause significant economic losses in agricultural production systems worldwide. This study presents a comprehensive review of emerging techniques used for the identification of PPNs, including morphological identification, molecular diagnostics such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), high-throughput sequencing, meta barcoding, remote sensing, hyperspectral analysis, and image processing. Classical morphological methods require a microscope and nematode taxonomist to identify species, which is laborious and time-consuming. Alternatively, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has emerged as a reliable and efficient approach for PPN identification and quantification; however, the cost associated with the reagents, instrumentation, and careful optimisation of reaction conditions can be prohibitive. High-throughput sequencing and meta-barcoding are used to study the biodiversity of all tropical groups of nematodes, not just PPNs, and are useful for describing changes in soil ecology. Convolutional neural network (CNN) methods are necessary to automate the detection and counting of PPNs from microscopic images, including complex cases like tangled nematodes. Remote sensing and hyperspectral methods offer non-invasive approaches to estimate nematode infestations and facilitate early diagnosis of plant stress caused by nematodes and rapid management of PPNs. This review provides a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers involved in nematology and plant protection. It highlights the importance of fast, efficient, and robust identification protocols and decision-support tools in mitigating the impact of PPNs on global agriculture and food security.

Plant Sciences

Technoeconomic Analysis (TEA)

Techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the DuraMAT Consortium includes the following areas: linking solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends to reliability implications; providing a framework to calculate technology costs, yielding insights useful for research decision-making, proposals, technology selection, and publications; and examining technology tradeoffs considering lifecycle project economics. This poster highlights results from the first and second iterations of the DuraMAT Technology Scouting reports as well as the updated Simplified PV Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Calculator.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Emergency Medical Service (EMS): Rotorcraft Technology Workshop

A lead organization on the national level should be designated to establish concepts, locations, and the number of shock trauma air medical services. Medical specialists desire a vehicle which incorporates advances in medical technology trends in health care. Key technology needs for the emergency medical services helicopter of the future include the riding quality of fixed wing aircraft (reduced noise and vibration), no tail rotor, small rotor, small rotor diameter, improved visibility, crashworthy vehicle, IFR capability, more affordability high reliability, fuel efficient, and specialized cabins to hold medical/diagnostic and communications equipment. Approaches to a national emergency medical service are discussed.

Bauchspies, J. S.

Space Power Management and Distribution Status and Trends

An overview of space power management and distribution (PMAD) is provided which encompasses historical and current technology trends. The PMAD components discussed include power source control, energy storage control, and load power processing electronic equipment. The status of distribution equipment comprised of rotary joints and power switchgear is evaluated based on power level trends in the public, military, and commercial sectors. Component level technology thrusts, as driven by perceived system level trends, are compared to technology status of piece-parts such as power semiconductors, capacitors, and magnetics to determine critical barriers.

Reppucci, G. M.

Hybrid Modeling Improves Health and Performance Monitoring

Scientific Monitoring Inc. was awarded a Phase I Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project by NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center to create a new, simplified health-monitoring approach for flight vehicles and flight equipment. The project developed a hybrid physical model concept that provided a structured approach to simplifying complex design models for use in health monitoring, allowing the output or performance of the equipment to be compared to what the design models predicted, so that deterioration or impending failure could be detected before there would be an impact on the equipment's operational capability. Based on the original modeling technology, Scientific Monitoring released I-Trend, a commercial health- and performance-monitoring software product named for its intelligent trending, diagnostics, and prognostics capabilities, as part of the company's complete ICEMS (Intelligent Condition-based Equipment Management System) suite of monitoring and advanced alerting software. I-Trend uses the hybrid physical model to better characterize the nature of health or performance alarms that result in "no fault found" false alarms. Additionally, the use of physical principles helps I-Trend identify problems sooner. I-Trend technology is currently in use in several commercial aviation programs, and the U.S. Air Force recently tapped Scientific Monitoring to develop next-generation engine health-management software for monitoring its fleet of jet engines. Scientific Monitoring has continued the original NASA work, this time under a Phase III SBIR contract with a joint NASA-Pratt & Whitney aviation security program on propulsion-controlled aircraft under missile-damaged aircraft conditions.

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The Emergence and Impact of Intelligent Machines

The following issues are addressed in this essay: a) Models of Technology Trends: A discussion of why nanotechnology and related advanced technologies are inevitable. The underlying technologies are deeply integrated into our society and are advancing on many diverse fronts; and b) The Economic Imperatives of the Law of Accelerating Returns: The exponential advance of technology, including the accelerating miniaturization of technology, is driven by economic imperative, and, in turn, has a pervasive impact on the economy.

Kurzweil, Raymond

Technology forecast and applications for autonomous, intelligent systems

Significant research products which have emerged from the core program of NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) are discussed. The Space Station Thermal Control System, the Space Shuttle Integrated Communications Officer Station, the Launch Processing System, the Expert Scheduling System for Pioneer Venus Spacecraft, a Bayesian classification system, and a spaceborne multiprocessor system are included. The technology trends which led to these results are discussed and future developments in technology are forecasted.

Lum, Henry, Jr.

An assessment of advanced displays and controls technology applicable to future space transportation systems

The topic of advanced display and control technology is addressed along with the major objectives of this technology, the current state of the art, major accomplishments, research programs and facilities, future trends, technology issues, space transportation systems applications and projected technology readiness for those applications. The holes that may exist between the technology needs of the transportation systems versus the research that is currently under way are addressed, and cultural changes that might facilitate the incorporation of these advanced technologies into future space transportation systems are recommended. Some of the objectives are to reduce life cycle costs, improve reliability and fault tolerance, use of standards for the incorporation of advancing technology, and reduction of weight, volume and power. Pilot workload can be reduced and the pilot's situational awareness can be improved, which would result in improved flight safety and operating efficiency. This could be accomplished through the use of integrated, electronic pictorial displays, consolidated controls, artificial intelligence, and human centered automation tools. The Orbiter Glass Cockpit Display is an example examined.

Hatfield, Jack J.

OAST planning model for space systems technology

The NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) planning model for space systems technology is described, and some space technology forecasts of a general nature are reported. Technology forecasts are presented as a span of technology levels; uncertainties in level of commitment to project and in required time are taken into account, with emphasis on differences resulting from high or low commitment. Forecasts are created by combining several types of data, including information on past technology trends, the trends of past predictions, the rate of advancement predicted by experts in the field, and technology forecasts already published.

Sadin, S. R.

How Emerging Technologies are Changing the Rules of Spacecraft Ground Support

As part of its effort to develop the flight dynamics distributed system (FDDS), NASA established a program for the continual monitoring of the developments in computer and software technologies, and for assessing the significance of constructing and operating spacecraft ground data systems. In relation to this, technology trends in the computing industry are reviewed, exploring their significance for the spacecraft ground support industry. The technologies considered are: hardware; object computing; Internet; automation, and software development. The ways in which these technologies have affected the industry are considered.

Boland, Dillard

Programmable performance - One aspect of smart sensing systems

Programmable performance is the ability to flexibly alter basic spatial, spectral, and radiometric system response as a function of time. In this paper programmable performance is defined as a functional element of smart sensor systems for the 1990's. The uses and benefits of these classes of sensor systems are discussed with reference to multispectral scanners of the earth's surface. An overall technology trend is identified which couples a high degree of sensor performance flexibility to a need for advanced device technology developments.

Jobson, D. J.