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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Energy burden aware and thermal resilience informed thermal energy storage system planning for disadvantaged communities

Disadvantaged communities often face a disproportionate energy burden because they need to allocate a higher percentage of their income to energy costs. More importantly, climate change-induced extreme weather events, such as heat waves and severe cold snaps, exacerbate these communities’ energy burdens. As a result, low- and medium-income communities are more likely to experience energy supply disruptions, increased health risks, and elevated energy bills because of inadequate thermal insulation and airtightness in their houses. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems, such as large-scale (community-level) geothermal energy storage and small-scale (building-level) phase change material (PCM)–based storage, have a great potential to improve building energy efficiency and to enhance thermal comfort, load shifting, and integration with renewable energy. The objective of this study is to optimally allocate building level PCM-based TES systems at the community level by considering energy equity and extreme weather effects. To this end, we developed an energy burden and thermal resilience–informed TES system planning framework, which includes three modules: (1) a community-level energy burden and thermal resilience assessment module, (2) building-level a TES system integration and assessment module, and (3) a community-level optimal planning module. Case studies were conducted on four disadvantaged communities in Montgomery and Shelby Counties in Tennessee with energy burdens >10% and with high percentages of people of color. The results indicate that this comprehensive planning framework can assist disadvantaged communities in reducing their energy burden and in bolstering their resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.

Shen, Zhenglai↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled Earth System Model Data for Resilient Energy System Planning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. In this presentation, we explore the output characteristics of the dataset and various validation analyses. We also present and discuss plans for the integration of this data into power system planning models using a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Representation and Impact of Water Head on Power System Planning and Operation

Representing water head information in power system model files, can provide a more realistic model of the system and thereby inform operation and planning personnel in the decision-making process. This article describes a procedure for modifying the power system model files (steady-state and dynamic) to represent water head information. Additionally, the impact of representing the water head on power system reliability studies including contingency analysis, cascading failure analysis and dynamic frequency response analysis has been investigated, using the modified power system models. This paper considers the detailed Western Electricity Coordination Council model during summer and winter conditions as the test system for the impact analysis. Results show that under reduced water head: 1) the number of critical voltage and branch flow violations increases; 2) chances of cascading failure and island formation increases; and 3) frequency nadir decreases as compared to those of the base cases where the water head information is not represented.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States

The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.

Langevin, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emerging Trends in Power System Planning Models

This presentation highlights NREL's power system modeling capabilities, both existing and the future direction of improvements. Specific enhancements to the ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) model and a new electricity market design testbed called EMIS (Electricity Markets and Investment Suite) were described. This content was part of a broader discussion to help inform the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee on the Future of Electric Power in the U.S. on existing power system models and improvements needed in these models to capture the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of the power system.

capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

The use of price-based demand response as a resource in electricity system planning

Utilities have conducted IRP for decades to consider both supply- and demand-side resources to meet bulk power system needs. More recently, an increasing number of states are requiring regulated utilities to file plans that identify distribution system needs, including DERs that can avoid or defer certain types of traditional utility investments cost-effectively. Price-based demand response (DR) is an underutilized resource that could substantially contribute to load flexibility. We find that evaluation of price-based DR as a solution to meet identified electricity system needs is uncommon at both planning processes. Where price-based DR is considered as a solution, methodologies are often deficient in the characterization and treatment of this resource. Based on our analysis of utility filings and state requirements, this brief provides recommendations for improving consideration of price-based DR in the context of long-term planning for bulk power and distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine energy supported multi-energy system planning and operation optimization for sustainable coastal community

The growing need for sustainable energy solutions in coastal areas necessitates the development of integrated systems that leverage abundant marine resources. In this study, a standalone Marine Energy Supported Multi-Energy System (MRE-MES) is designed for sustainable coastal community development, utilizing renewable marine resources, including offshore wind, wave, and solar energy, to address the energy needs of electricity, heat, freshwater, and hydrogen. The proposed MRE-MES incorporates a co-optimization model that simultaneously balances capacity planning and operational efficiency to minimize costs and environmental impacts. The system is tested under different renewable energy penetration levels and demand uncertainties, using a two-stage stochastic programming to account for variability in renewable resources and consumption needs. The experimental results indicate that in the optimal system capacity configuration, the percentage of total renewable energy generation is around 80 %, with or without capacity limitation constraints on PV, water tank, and hydrogen storage. Compared to the worst-case scenario in Monte Carlo experiments, two-stage stochastic optimization results in a more robust decision that effectively mitigates the risks posed by future uncertain demand conditions. In conclusion, the findings highlight the viability of marine energy for providing a resilient, comprehensive energy solution to coastal communities.

Capacity planning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representing Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Network Investments within Power System Planning Models

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) is frequently identified as a potential component to achieving a decarbonized power system at least cost; however, power system models frequently lack detailed representation of CO 2 transportation, injection, and storage (CTS) infrastructure. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicitly represent CO 2 storage potential and CTS infrastructure costs and constraints within a continental-scale power system capacity expansion model. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the future costs and performance of CTS components and carbon capture technologies. We find that the quantity of CO 2 captured within the power sector is relatively insensitive to the range of CTS costs explored, suggesting that the cost of CO 2 capture retrofits is a more important driver of CCS implementation than the costs of transportation and storage. Finally, we demonstrate that storage and injection costs account for the predominant share of total costs associated with CTS investment and operation, suggesting that pipeline infrastructure costs have limited influence on the competitiveness of CCS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System Plan

The United States Department of Energy Advanced Reactor Technologies Program was formed in Fiscal Year 2015 and encompasses the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project and Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) Program as they were known previously. The VHTR Program was created to support design and licensing of the first VHTR nuclear plant. Data created for and used by the program must be qualified for use, stored in a readily accessible electronic form, categorized to assure the correct data are used, and controlled to prevent data corruption or inadvertent changes. The Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System was designed to support the data needs of the VHTR Program, at the time and now the Advanced Reactor Technologies Program. Since its inception, use of the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System has expanded to support additional projects and programs with similar requirements for control, analysis, and availability of large data sets.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-objective Decisions on Integrated Energy Systems Planning and Operation for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply

Unlike the power sector—which can transmit electricity over long distances via established grids—the industrial sector poses a unique challenge due to its geographically concentrated large-scale heat processes. Enhancing energy security in such industrial parks provides a dual benefit: reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices and improved economic viability, largely driven by economies of scale in energy supply and distribution. This study presents a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of a nuclear energy hub, employing a mechanism-focused approach to evaluate uncertainties in operational strategies and capacity optimization. Load profiles from three major energy intesive industries—chemical, refinery, and steelmaking—are examined, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities for nuclear energy integration. We adopt a multi-objective optimization framework, converting multiple objectives into a single objective function through the e-constraint method. The findings highlight clear trade-offs between system conditions and varying levels of energy independence. Overall, this analysis is granular enough to address industry-specific concerns yet sufficiently generalizable to provide actionable insights into the feasibility of nuclear-based clean heat solutions for the industrial sector.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This document highlights the best practices on data acquisition and management, modeling and stakeholder engagement required for enhanced load modeling and forecasting. Each section is interspersed with case studies to highlight lessons from different country contexts to highlight both cross-cutting and location specific best practices needed to conduct robust load modeling and forecasting.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This report highlights best practices for enhanced load modeling and forecasting for long-term power sector planning. The best practices touch on stakeholder engagement, data acquisition and management, modeling and validation, and scenario development. Case studies are provided to highlight crosscutting lessons that could inform enhanced load modeling and forecasting across different country settings. Though this work presents best practices resulting from support to the PDOE, the list is by no means exhaustive—nor is it meant to be prescriptive.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

HFCC-A RF systems plan

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Belomestnykh, Sergey [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000001782↗