Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “synoptic regime”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Vandenberg Air Force Base Pressure Gradient Wind Study

Warning category winds can adversely impact day-to-day space lift operations at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. NASA's Launch Services Program and other programs at VAFB use wind forecasts issued by the 30 Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle. The 30 OSSWF tasked the AMU to develop an automated Excel graphical user interface that includes pressure gradient thresholds between specific observing stations under different synoptic regimes to aid forecasters when issuing wind warnings. This required the AMU to determine if relationships between the variables existed.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗
NASA NTRS2005

North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships

This study analyzed daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters to determine how mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examinations of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the the boundary level decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics.

Norris, Joel R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking Synoptic Patterns to Cloud Properties and Local Circulations Over Southeastern Texas

This report classifies meteorological regimes in the southeastern Texas region to identify environmental conditions that favor sea-breeze induced convection. The classification is accomplished using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) approach. We applied SOM to 10 years of 700-hPa geopotential height anomalies during the summer months from reanalysis data to distinguish three dominant synoptic regimes, with a continuum of transitional states between those. The primary regimes include: (a) a pre-trough regime associated with a synoptic trough, (b) a post-trough regime with upper-level northerly flow, and (c) an anticyclonic regime within the westward extent of the Bermuda High. We project the data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite and the Next Generation Weather Radar system onto each SOM node to investigate the characteristics of cloud and precipitation properties in different regimes. When southeastern Texas is positioned to the southwest quadrant of a maritime high pressure system, an increased cloud frequency is observed over the region during the afternoon hours due to significant moisture advection. A confluence of synoptic southerly flow and sea-breeze circulation commonly occurs in this regime. When a high pressure system is over southeastern Texas, the area is dominated by large-scale subsidence with weak pressure gradients and moderate precipitable water vapor. This weak synoptic forcing is favorable for the formation of a sea-breeze circulation. This is confirmed by an enhanced onshore flow and a decreased temperature at the surface in the early afternoon, as well as a sharp increase in radar echo top height.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wintertime synoptic patterns of midlatitude boundary layer clouds over the western North Atlantic: Climatology and insights from in-situ ACTIVATE observations

The winter synoptic evolution of the western North Atlantic and its influence on the atmospheric boundary layer is described by means of a regime classification based on Self Organizing Maps applied to 12 year of data (2009-2020). The regimes are classified into categories according to daily 600-hPa geopotential height: dominant ridge, trough to ridge eastward transition (trough-ridge), dominant trough, and ridge to trough eastward transition (ridge-trough). A fifth synoptic regime resembles the winter climatological mean. Coherent changes in sea-level pressure and large-scale winds are in concert with the synoptic regimes: 1) the ridge regime is associated with a well-developed anticyclone; 2) the trough-ridge gives rise to a low pressure center over the ocean, ascents, and northerly winds over the coastal zone; 3) trough is associated with the eastward displacement of a cyclone, coastal subsidence, and northerly winds, all representative characteristics of cold-air outbreaks; 4) the ridge-trough regime features the development of an anticyclone and weak coastal winds. Low clouds are characteristic of the trough regime, with both trough and trough-ridge featuring synoptic maxima in cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). The N d increase is primarily observed near the coast, concomitant with strong surface heat fluxes exceeding by more than 400 W m -2 compared to fluxes further east. Five consecutive days of aircraft observations collected during the ACTIVATE campaign corroborates the climatological characterization, confirming the occurrence of high N d for days identified as trough. This study emphasizes the role of boundary-layer dynamics and aerosol activation and their roles in modulating cloud microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS1989

Large-scale transport of a CO-enhanced air mass from Europe to the Middle East

On November 14, 1981, the shuttle-borne Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) experiment observed a carbon monoxide (CO) enhanced air mass in the middle troposphere over the Middle East. The primary source of this polluted air was estimated by constructing adiabatic isentropic trajectories backwards from the MAPS measurement location over a 36 h period. The isentropic diagnostics indicate that CO-enhanced air was transported southeastward over the Mediterranean from an organized synoptic-scale weather regime, albeit of moderate intensity, influencing central Europe on November 12. Examination of the evolving synoptic scale vertical velocity and precipitation patterns during this period, in conjuction with Meteosat visible, infrared, and water vapor imagery, suggests that the presence of this disturbed weather system over Europe may have created upward transport of CO-enhanced air between the boundary-layer and midtropospheric levels, and subsequent entrainment in the large-scale northwesterly jet stream flow over Europe and the Mediterranean.

Connors, V. S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗
NASA NTRS2011

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida: Phase V

The AMU added three years of data to the POR from the previous work resulting in a 22-year POR for the warm season months from 1989-2010. In addition to the flow regime stratification, moisture and stability stratifications were added to separate more active from less active lighting days within the same flow regime. The parameters used for moisture and stability stratifications were PWAT and TI which were derived from sounding data at four Florida radiosonde sites. Lightning data consisted of NLDN CG lightning flashes within 30 NM of each airfield. The AMU increased the number of airfields from nine to thirty-six which included the SLF, CCAFS, PAFB and thirty-three airfields across Florida. The NWS MLB requested the AMU calculate lightning climatologies for additional airfields that they support as a backup to NWS TBW which was then expanded to include airfields supported by NWS JAX and NWS MFL. The updated climatologies of lightning probabilities are based on revised synoptic-scale flow regimes over the Florida peninsula (Lambert 2007) for 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-NM radius range rings around the thirty-six airfields in 1-, 3- and 6-hour increments. The lightning, flow regime, moisture and stability data were processed in S-PLUS software using scripts written by the AMU to automate much of the data processing. The S-PLUS data files were exported to Excel to allow the files to be combined in Excel Workbooks for easier data handling and to create the tables and charts for the Gill. The AMU revised the Gill developed in the previous phase (Bauman 2009) with the new data and provided users with an updated HTML tool to display and manipulate the data and corresponding charts. The tool can be used with most web browsers and is computer operating system independent. The AMU delivered two Gills - one with just the PWAT stratification and one with both the PWAT and TI stratifications due to insufficient data in some of the PWATITI stratification combinations. This will allow the forecasters to choose a moisture-only or moisture/stability stratification depending on the flow regime and available data.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS1983

A nested-grid mesoscale numerical weather prediction model modified for Space Shuttle operational requirements

A nested-grid mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is tested over Florida for the case of intense seabreeze-induced convection. The goal of this modeling system is to provide real-time aviation weather support which is designed to fit local terminal operations such as those supporting NASA's STS. Results from a 58 km and a 14.5 km nested-grid simulation show that this version of the MASS is capable of simulating many of the basic characteristics of convective complexes during periods of relatively weak synoptic scale flow regimes. However, it is noted that extensive development work is required with nested-grid cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes before many of the meso-beta scale features such as thunderstorm downdraft-produced bubble high pressure centers can be accurately simulated. After these schemes are properly tuned, MASS can be utilized to initialize microscale modeling systems.

Kaplan, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Empirical and modeled synoptic cloud climatology of the Arctic Ocean

A set of cloud cover data were developed for the Arctic during the climatically important spring/early summer transition months. Parallel with the determination of mean monthly cloud conditions, data for different synoptic pressure patterns were also composited as a means of evaluating the role of synoptic variability on Arctic cloud regimes. In order to carry out this analysis, a synoptic classification scheme was developed for the Arctic using an objective typing procedure. A second major objective was to analyze model output of pressure fields and cloud parameters from a control run of the Goddard Institue for Space Studies climate model for the same area and to intercompare the synoptic climatatology of the model with that based on the observational data.

Barry, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying synoptic controls on boundary layer thermodynamic and cloud properties in a regional forecast model

Although most of our understanding of boundary layer cloudiness is based on idealized, subtropical, barotropic marine environments, boundary layer clouds exist across a range of conditions. In this study, we use the Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and an automated cold-front-relative analysis framework to explore the boundary layer structure associated with low clouds across a transect through the cold front of a midlatitude synoptic cyclone. The model credibly captures boundary layer structure in line with conceptual models of midlatitude cyclones and ground-based observations at Graciosa Island in the Azores. The warm sector is conditionally unstable, with clouds that are too shallow and with too little liquid water, compared to cloud property retrievals from satellite and surface-based instruments. The cold-frontal region exhibits convection associated with weak stability and ascent. Northwest of the cold front, the boundary layer is well mixed, deeper, and capped by a strong inversion maintained by large-scale subsidence. Simulated clouds in frontal and post-frontal regions are mostly too thick, with too much liquid water and too little cloud base drizzle. The post-frontal clouds are associated with grid-scale updrafts, which appear to be the model's attempt to represent mesoscale organization of cellular convection typically observed in the cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. The deep, well-mixed post-frontal boundary layers and cloudiness are maintained by strong surface fluxes, as in cold air outbreaks. Our analysis framework serves as a unique approach to model verification, and our results offer insights into differences in boundary layer cloud behavior between subtropical and synoptic cold-sector regimes.

Eissner, Jordan M. [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS ↗
NASA NTRS1993

Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. I - Methodology and hemispheric regimes. II - Sectorial regimes and preferred transitions

Multivariate pdfs in the phase space of large-scale atmospheric motions are examined in order to identify recurrent and persistent flow patterns. The extent to which intraseasonal variablity can be described and understood in terms of multiple flow regimes is clarified. It is shown that the synoptically intriguing and statistically significant inhomogeneities exhibited by the 2D phase plane on the periphery of the distribution are due to the existence of persistent and recurrent anomaly patterns. It is argued that these inhomgeneities are obscured when PDFs are examined in a smaller-dimensional subspace than dynamically desired. A synoptic characterization of onsets and breaks for the flow regimes is given by compositing. In situ evolutions of anomaly patterns, slow westward shifts of high-latitude anomaly centers, and successive downstream increase of anomaly magnitudes are the typical signatures of such events.

Kimoto, Masahide↗
NASA NTRS1994

Wavelets, period-doubling, and time-frequency localization with application to organization of convection over the tropical western Pacific

In this paper, preliminary results in using orthogonal and continuous wavelet transform (WT) to identify period doubling and time-frequency localization in both synthetic and real data are presented. First, the Haar WT is applied to synthetic time series derived from a simple nonlinear dynamical system- a first-order quadratic difference equation. Second, the complex Morlet WT is used to study the time-frequency localization of tropical convection based on a high-resolution Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite infrared (IR) radiance dataset. The Haar WT of the synthetic time series indicates the presence and distinct separation of multiple frequencies in a period-doubling sequence. The period-doubling process generates a multiplicity of intermediate frequencies, which are manifested in the nonuniformity in time with respect to the phase of oscillations in the lower frequencies. Wavelet transform also enables the detection of extremely weak signals in high-order subharmonics resulting from the period-doubling bifurcations. These signals are either undetected or considered statistically insignificant by traditional Fourier analysis. The Morlet WT of the IR radiance dataset indicates the presence of multiple timescales, which are localized in both frequency and time. There are two regimes in the variation of IR radiance, corresponding to the wet and dry periods. Multiple timescales, ranging from semidiurnal, diurnal, synoptic, to intraseasonal with embedding structures, are active in the wet regime. In particular, synoptic variability is more prominent during the wet phase of an intensive intraseasonal cycle. These are not only consistent with, but also show more details than, previous findings by using other techniques. The phase-locking relationships among the oscillations with different time-scales suggest that both synoptic and intraseasonal variations may be mixed oscillations due to the interaction of self-excited oscillations in the tropical atmosphere and external forcings such as annual and diurnal solar radiation variations. Both examples show that WT is a powerful tool for analysis of phenomena involving multiscale interactions that exhibit localization in both frequency and time. A discussion on the caveats in the use of WT in geophysical data analysis is also presented.

Weng, Hengyi↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-Uncrewed Aircraft System (TRACER-UAS) Field Campaign Report

Convective processes drive the development of clouds across a variety of scales, thereby playing a central role in governing weather and climate globally. These processes help to set the stage for circulations that redistribute heat and moisture throughout the lower atmosphere, and simultaneously develop storms that supply precipitation to regions that depend on such rain events for supporting a variety of societal needs. At the same time, extreme precipitation events can result in localized flooding of low-lying areas, posing hazards to transportation and regional inhabitants, and potentially damaging structures and infrastructure. As a result, there is an inherent need to better understand the drivers and modulators of clouds and precipitation and leverage such understanding to make projections of how these important systems may evolve with a changing climate. With nearly three billion of Earth’s human inhabitants living within 200 km of a shoreline, development of such understanding is particularly important in coastal regimes. Central drivers of convective cloud development and life cycle in coastal environments include synoptic forcing, local meso- and microscale circulation regimes, microphysical evolution, and aerosol properties. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development and its evolution can help drive the formation and organization of convective clouds, which then impart their own controls through dynamic processes related to latent heating and cooling (including cold-pool formation and propagation), three-dimensional radiative effects, and background environmental conditions (Fan et al. 2016). Such clouds have been contributing to record precipitation events in southeast Texas in recent years, relative to the last several decades of data from regional precipitation gauges (Fagnant et al. 2020). The greater Houston urban area has experienced particularly large increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, with enhanced intensity of extreme events (stretching of distribution tails) having potentially significant implications for watershed floodplain planning and mapping in greater Houston and Harris County. While the most extreme precipitation events were associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., Tropical Storm Allison and Hurricane Harvey; Blood 2014, Kao et al. 2019), strong thunderstorms can also deliver large amounts of precipitation over the area over relatively short periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Theories of multiple equilibria and weather regimes : A critical reexamination. II - Baroclinic two-layer models

Previous results based on low- and intermediate-order truncations of the two-layer model suggest the existence of multiple equilibria and/or multiple weather regimes for the extratropical large-scale flow. The importance of the transient waves in the synoptic scales in organizing the large-scale flow and in the maintenance of weather regimes was emphasized. The result shows that multiple equilibria/weather regimes that are present in lower-order models examined disappear when a sufficient number of modes are kept in the spectral expansion of the solution to the governing partial differential equations. Much of the chaotic behavior of the large-scale flow that is present in intermediate-order models is now found to be spurious. Physical reasons for the drastic modification are offered. A peculiarity in the formulation of most existing two-layer models is noted that also tends to exaggerate the importance of baroclinic processes and increase the degree of unpredictability of the large-scale flow.

Cehelsky, Priscilla↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linking large-scale circulation patterns to low-cloud properties

Abstract. The North Pacific High (NPH) is a fundamental meteorological feature present during the boreal warm season. Marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, which are persistent in this oceanic region, are influenced directly by the NPH. In this study, we combine 11 years of reanalysis and an unsupervised machine learning technique to examine the gamut of 850 hPa synoptic-scale circulation patterns. This approach reveals two distinguishable regimes – a dominant NPH setup and a land-falling cyclone – and in between a spectrum of large-scale patterns. We then use satellite retrievals to elucidate for the first time the explicit dependence of MBL cloud properties (namely cloud droplet number concentration, liquid water path, and shortwave cloud radiative effect – CRESW) on 850 hPa circulation patterns over the northeast Pacific Ocean. We find that CRESW spans from −146.8 to −115.5 W m−2, indicating that the range of observed MBL cloud properties must be accounted for in global and regional climate models. Our results demonstrate the value of combining reanalysis and satellite retrievals to help clarify the relationship between synoptic-scale dynamics and cloud physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗