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DOE OSTI2024

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Growth and survival rates of dispersing free embryos and settled larvae of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the Missouri River, Montana and North Dakota

We released nearly 1.0 million 1-day post-hatch (dph) and 5-dph pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) free embryos in the Missouri River on 1 July 2019 and sequentially captured survivors at multiple sites through a 240-km river reach to quantify daily growth and survival rates during the early life stages. Genetic analysis was used to assign captured fish to released family lots and known ages. Growth rate was similar (0.74–0.75 mm day –1 ) between the 1- and 5-dph age groups during the 3–4-day dispersal period when water temperature averaged 16.8 °C. Daily survival rate was 0.64 during 1–4 dph for the original 1-dph age group and 0.80 during 5–7 dph for the original 5-dph age group. Total survival during free embryo dispersal (hatch to 9 dph) was estimated as 0.0437. The transition from dispersing as free embryos to settling as benthic larvae was verified for fish originally released as 5 dph. Growth of settled larvae was quantified with a Gompertz model through 75 dph (9 September; 112 mm) when water temperature was 18.8–21.0 °C in the rearing areas. Settled larvae had an estimated daily survival rate of 0.96, and estimated total survival during 9–75 dph was 0.0714. This study provides the first empirical survival estimates for pallid sturgeon early life stages in natural settings and is one of few studies reporting similar information for other sturgeon species. Applications of this work extend to pallid sturgeon restoration programs where population models are being developed to predict recruitment potential and population responses to river management alternatives.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lethality is Local, but Survival is Systemic: Temporal and Multi-Organ Responses to Chlorine Gas Exposure in a Murine Model

Chlorine gas (Cl2) is a highly toxic chemical associated with both localized lung injury and systemic health effects. While pulmonary damage has been well characterized, the systemic inflammatory and metabolic responses remain poorly understood. We aimed to define the temporal and multi-organ responses to Cl2 exposure in a murine model, with a focus on identifying spatiotemporal inflammation and its impact on survival and lethality. SKH1 mice were exposed for 10 min to varying concentrations of Cl2 (94.4–810 ppm, representative of non-lethal, LD10, and LD50 doses) and monitored for respiratory function, perfusion, and acidosis using organ-specific imaging. At multiple time points (40 min, 6 h, 24 h, and 7 d), we measured phosphoproteins, cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and metabolic hormones in the lungs, heart, cortex, and plasma. Statistical modeling and logistic regression were used to identify biomarkers associated with lethality and survival. We found that lung injury was the primary cause of potential lethality, particularly via early phosphoprotein signaling disruptions. However, survival correlated with early systemic coordination of inflammatory and metabolic signals across organs. Perfusion and acidosis imaging were strongly associated with chemokine and hormone responses. Key survival-associated plasma biomarkers included decreased insulin, increased ghrelin, and decreased eotaxin. While potential lethality from Cl2 exposure is locally driven by pulmonary injury, survival depends on systemic, multi-organ responses that occur rapidly post-exposure. Within this model, our findings identify a potential therapeutic window to enhance survival and suggest candidate biomarkers that may be explored translationally for both triage and treatment of chlorine-related incidents.

chlorine gas↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of juvenile white sturgeon blade strike survival through a conventional and a novel hydropower turbine

Hydropower is a globally important renewable energy source with profound impacts on aquatic organisms, including direct injury and mortality to fish that move through hydropower facilities. While it is expected that the characteristics of turbine design and operation influence the type, frequency, and magnitude of injuries suffered by entrained fish, few direct comparisons exist to illustrate differences in fish survival outcomes for conventional and novel turbine designs. This study evaluated blade strike-associated injury and mortality rates for juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) passed through a model-scale turbine equipped with a runner having conventional blade profiles (thin, straight leading edges) and the same turbine equipped with a runner designed for improved fish survival (thick, slanted leading edges). In both trials, head and turbine runner rotational speeds were matched to produce five blade peripheral speeds between 15.0 and 27.6 m/s. High-speed video was captured for all turbine passage events. Fish were assessed for injuries following passage, and mortalities were assessed immediately after passage and after 48 h. Conventional runner passage resulted in 42% to 78% survival after 48 h, with approximately one-third of all tested fish killed by severing. Under the same test conditions, immediate and 48 h survival rates through the novel runner were 100% except at the highest speed condition (95.6% survival at 48 h). These results clearly indicate that turbine design has a profound effect on fish survival, and suggest that thoughtful redesign of hydropower equipment could significantly ameliorate the risks of blade strike mortality.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survival estimates across five life stages of redfin ( Perca fluviatilis ) exposed to simulated pumped-storage hydropower stressors

The global prevalence of pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) is expected to grow exponentially as countries transition to renewable energy sources. Compared to conventional hydropower, little is currently known regarding PSH impacts on aquatic biota. This study estimated the survival of five life stages (egg, two larval stages, juvenile and adult) of redfin (European) perch (Perca fluviatilis) following passage through a PSH facility during the pumping phase. This was achieved by simulating the individual stressors expected to occur during passage through a 2000-MW PSH facility using laboratory-simulated (shear strain and extreme compression) and modelling (blade strike, BS) approaches. Our results indicate that redfin could survive the shear, pressure and BS stressors expected within the PSH facility, but impacts varied among life stages. Juvenile survival was >70% across all shear strain rates, while the survival of eggs and larvae declined markedly as strain rate increased. All life stages had high survival when exposed to rapid compression and BS. The high survival of redfin to the stressors tested suggests the PSH facility could facilitate the passage of redfin during the pumping phase from the lower to the higher elevation reservoir. This outcome would be welcomed in situations where the species is native, but could have adverse implications for the conservation of native biota where the species is considered a pest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of sampling techniques on short-term survival and genotyping success of salmonid fry

ABSTRACT Objective Genetics tools have become an integral part of managing and understanding fish populations. Generally, a small tissue sample, such as a fin clip, is taken and then genotyped, with little effect on survival of the fish. However, tissue sampling may have a larger effect on juvenile fish survival compared to their adult counterparts. We evaluated survival and genotyping success of various genetic sampling techniques for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss fry. Methods Three sampling treatments were evaluated including control (anesthetized and handled), fin clipping (partial caudal fin clip), and swabbing (OmniSwab was used to collect external mucus). Survival was monitored for 12 d posttreatment, and genotyping success was evaluated. Results Survival was high in all treatment groups (i.e., 0.93–1.00) but, on average, was lower in the swab treatment group. Genotyping was successful in 100% of the fin clip samples and 11–50% of the swab samples. Conclusions Results of this study suggest that sampling caudal-fin tissue does not negatively affect fry short-term survival and the small tissue samples yield highly successful genotyping results. Swabbing did not produce successful genotyping results, and fish sampled with swabs experienced higher mortality than those that received fin clips. Results indicate that fin clips should be used for collection of genetic samples from fry.

McCarrick, Darcy K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of Main-sequence-like Surviving Companions in Type Ia Supernova Remnants

Recent theoretical and numerical studies of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) explosions within the single-degenerate scenario suggest that the nondegenerate companions could survive during the supernova impact and could be detectable in nearby supernova remnants. However, observational efforts show less promising evidence of the existence of surviving companions from the standard single-degenerate channels. The spin-up/spin-down models are possible mechanisms to explain the nondetection of surviving companions. In these models, the spin-up phase could increase the critical mass for explosion, leading to a super-Chandrasekhar-mass explosion, and the spin-down phase could lead to extra mass loss and angular momentum redistribution. Since the spin-down timescale for the delayed explosion of a rotating white dwarf is unclear, in this paper we explore a vast parameter space of main-sequence-like surviving companions via two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of supernova impact and the subsequent stellar evolution of surviving companions. Tight universal relations to describe the mass-stripping effect, supernova kick, and depth of supernova heating are provided. Our results suggest that the not-yet-detected surviving companions from observations of nearby SN Ia remnants might favor low-mass companions, short binary separation, or stronger supernova explosion energies than the standard single-degenerate channels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Survival of Immature Gopher Tortoises Recruited into a Translocated Population

Population manipulations such as translocation and head-starting are increasingly used as recovery tools for chelonians. However, evaluating success of individual projects can require decades of monitoring to detect population trends in these long-lived species. Furthermore, there are often few benchmarks from stable, unmanipulated populations against which to compare demographic rates, particularly for the immature stages. Here, we used 8 years of mark-recapture data to estimate apparent survival of immature gopher tortoises recruited into an introduced population of gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) first established on St. Catherines Island, Georgia, USA in 1987. During 2006 29 -2013, we conducted targeted trapping of immature gopher tortoises and compared survival of the hatchling, juvenile and subadult stages among treatments: 1) individuals released shortly after hatching from eggs obtained from gravid female founders (‘direct releases’); 2) individuals reared in captivity for 6-9 months following hatching (‘head-starts’); and 3) individuals first encountered as free-ranging, wild-recruited offspring (‘wild recruits’). Among the candidate models we examined, the best fit model included additive effects of tortoise stage and treatment, however, overlapping 95% credible intervals among treatments (CI) suggested that survival did not vary significantly among treatments. Annual apparent survival increased over the immature period, highlighting the importance of calculating separate estimates for the different immature stages. Across all treatments, the additive model estimated annual apparent survival probability to be 0.37 (CI: 0.25 40 – 0.48) for hatchlings, 0.71 (CI: 0.61 – 0.81) for juveniles, and 0.83 (CI: 0.74 – 0.94) for subadults. Our study, in combination with previous monitoring efforts at St. Catherines Island, provides strong evidence that the translocation and subsequent population augmentation efforts have been successful in establishing a robust population of gopher tortoises. Additionally, our results provide estimates of demographic rates for life stages that are poorly understood but critical to understanding population dynamics of this imperiled species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Survival, healing, and swim performance of juvenile migratory sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) implanted with a new acoustic microtransmitter designed for small eel-like fishes

Background: Little is known about the transformer stage of the parasitic lampreys, a brief but critical period that encompasses juvenile out-migration from rivers to lakes or oceans to begin parasitic feeding. Information about this life stage could have significant conservation implications for both imperiled and invasive lampreys. We investigated tag retention, survival, wound healing, and swim performance of newly transformed sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) implanted with a new micro-acoustic transmitter, the eel–lamprey acoustic transmitter (ELAT), in a controlled laboratory environment. Results: The 61-day survival of our tagged subjects was 71%, within the range reported in similar studies of juvenile lampreys. However, survival was significantly lower in the tagged animals (vs control), with no effect statistically attributable to measures of animal length, mass, condition, or population of origin (Great Lakes vs. Atlantic drainage). Mortality in tagged fish was concentrated in the first four days post-surgery, suggesting injury from the surgical process. An unusually long recovery time from anesthesia may have contributed to the increased mortality. In a simple burst swim assay, tagged animals swam significantly slower (– 22.5%) than untagged animals, but were not significantly different in endurance swim tests. A composite wound healing score at day four was a significant predictor of maximum burst swim speed at day 20, and wound condition was related to animal mass, but not length, at the time of tagging. Conclusions: Impairments to survival and swim performance of juvenile sea lamprey implanted with the ELAT transmitter were within currently reported ranges for telemetry studies with small, difficult to observe fishes. Our results could be improved with more refined anesthesia and surgical techniques. The ability to track migratory movements of imperiled and pest populations of parasitic lampreys will improve our ability to estimate vital rates that underlie recruitment to the adult population (growth, survival) and to investigate the environmental factors that regulate the timing and rates of movement, in wild populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structural Aspects of Neutron Survival Probabilities

The neutron survival probability (and related quantities including probabilities of extinction and initiation) is a central element of the broader stochastic theory of neutron populations and finds application in fields including reactor start-up, analysis of reactor power bursts and criticality accidents, and safeguards. In a full neutron transport formulation, the equation governing the single-neutron survival probability is a backward or adjoint-like integro-partial differential equation with the added complexity of being highly nonlinear. Analogous formulations of this equation exist in the context of many approximate theories of neutron transport, with the point kinetics formulation having received significant theoretical attention since the 1940s. This work continues this tradition by providing a novel analysis of the single-neutron survival probability equation using the tools of boundary layer theory. The analysis reveals that the “fully dynamic” solution of the single-neutron survival probability equation—and some key probability distributions derived from it—may be cast as a singular perturbation around the underlying quasi-static single-neutron probability of initiation. In this perturbation solution, the expansion parameter is the ratio of the neutron generation time to a macroscopic time scale characterizing the overall system evolution; this interpretation illuminates some of the fundamental structural aspects of neutron survival phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survival outcomes of patients with head and neck squamous cell cancer with hepatitis B virus infection: An analysis from an endemic tertiary center

Abstract Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV) affects the occurrence and survival outcome of various malignant disorders. The study aimed to evaluate the survival outcome of head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) patients with or without HBV infection. Methods This study included patients with HNSCC who visited Taichung Veterans General Hospital from 2007 to 2015. HBV infection was defined by hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seropositivity. By propensity score matching, we compared survival outcomes, including progression‐free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), among patients with or without HBV infection. Results The prevalence of HBV infection in our cohort was 12.3%. Among the 1,015 patients included in the matched analysis, a higher risk of baseline liver cirrhosis (11.3% vs. 3.4%, p < 0.001) and initial hepatic dysfunction (10.8% vs. 5.4%, p = 0.005) rates were observed than those without HBV infection at baseline. The 5‐year OS was 43.1% and 53.2% ( p < 0.001) and the 5‐year PFS was 37.4% and 42.3% ( p = 0.007) in patients with and without HBV infection, respectively. The incidence of subsequent hepatic dysfunction showed no difference between patients with and without HBV infection (29.6% vs. 26.8%, p = 0.439). Conclusions Patients with HNSCC and HBV infection were younger and had a higher risk of cirrhosis compared to those without HBV infection. Moreover, HBV infection significantly influenced the OS and PFS outcomes but not subsequent hepatic dysfunction in patients with HNSCC.

Lai, Cheng‐Lun↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pan‐Cancer Survival Impact of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in a National Healthcare System

ABSTRACT Background The cumulative, health system‐wide survival benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is unclear, particularly among real‐world patients with limited life expectancies and among subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials. We sought to determine the health system‐wide survival impact of ICIs. Methods We identified all patients receiving PD‐1/PD‐L1 or CTLA‐4 inhibitors from 2010 to 2023 in the national Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system (ICI cohort) and all patients who received non‐ICI systemic therapy in the years before ICI approval (historical control). ICI and historical control cohorts were matched on multiple cancer‐related prognostic factors, comorbidities, and demographics. The effect of ICI on overall survival was quantified with Cox regression incorporating matching weights. Cumulative life‐years gained system‐wide were calculated from the difference in adjusted 5‐year restricted mean survival times. Results There were 27,322 patients in the ICI cohort and 69,801 patients in the historical control cohort. Among ICI patients, the most common cancer types were NSCLC (46%) and melanoma (10%). ICI demonstrated a large OS benefit in most cancer types with heterogeneity across cancer types (NSCLC: adjusted HR [aHR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.58,p < 0.001; urothelial: aHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83–1.01,p = 0.066). The relative benefit of ICI was stable across patient age, comorbidity, and self‐reported race subgroups. Across VHA, 15,859 life‐years gained were attributable to ICI within 5‐years of treatment, with NSCLC contributing the most life‐years gained. Conclusion We demonstrated substantial increase in survival due to ICIs across a national health system, including in patient subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials.

Oncology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overwintering Distribution and Postspawn Survival of Steelhead in the Upper Columbia River Basin

Abstract Adult summer-run steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss overwinter in freshwater for several months prior to spawning. In systems supporting mixed populations of fisheries and conservation importance, understanding the distribution and survival of pre- and postspawn fish is necessary for informed management. The upper Columbia River supports hatchery-origin components valued by anglers, natural-origin components of conservation concern, and temporary strays from downstream populations. We used radiotelemetry and PIT telemetry to monitor the behavior, distribution, and survival of adult steelhead during fall, overwintering, spawning, and postspawn periods, with a focus on use of the main stem versus four major tributaries. Adult steelhead (N = 807) were tagged at Priest Rapids Dam in 2015 and 2016. One-fifth of steelhead fell back below Priest Rapids Dam and did not reascend. A slight majority of tagged steelhead that overwintered upstream of Priest Rapids Dam did so in main-stem reservoirs (54%; N = 548). Overwintering in the main-stem Columbia River was more likely for later-arriving steelhead and was concentrated in the upstream-most reservoir. Winter tributary use was highest in the Wenatchee (26%; 2016) and Methow (18%; 2015) rivers, whereas no steelhead overwintered in the Entiat River. Harvest of hatchery-origin steelhead was 18% in 2015 and was near zero in 2016, when the fishery was suspended due to low adult returns. After accounting for reported harvest, annual overwinter survival did not differ between main-stem and tributary habitats, and relatively low adjusted survival of hatchery-origin steelhead in 2015 suggested unreported harvest. In contrast to low iteroparity rates (<3%), the majority of postspawn steelhead (56.5%) exited tributaries as kelts; kelt survival to Bonneville Dam was 65% in 2016 and 23% in 2017. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of understanding patterns of habitat use and mortality in steelhead populations when managers are faced with balancing harvest and conservation goals.

Fuchs, Nathaniel T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emigration and Survival of Hatchery‐Reared Coho Salmon Released as Parr and Smolts in a Reintroduction Program

ABSTRACT Releasing fish at varied life stages is an underutilized hatchery‐rearing practice. Columbia River Treaty tribes have been working to reintroduce extirpated Coho Salmon to historical habitats in upper watersheds. This effort has included the release of hatchery‐origin fish at both the parr and smolt life stages in the Yakima River Basin (Washington State USA), a tributary to the Columbia River. We evaluated releases of parr and smolts tagged with passive integrated transponders over 11 brood years. We assessed emigration timing, fish survival, and age‐at‐return for the two release groups. Emigrating juveniles released as smolts had higher survival and arrived downstream earlier than fish released as parr. Survival from release locations to adult return did not significantly differ for the two release groups. However, we observed a difference in apparent marine survival as fish released as parr had mean juvenile‐to‐adult return rates greater than fish released as smolts. Parr releases also tended to return at older age than smolt releases. Our results indicate that implementing practices to reduce homogenization of hatchery releases may produce survival and diversity benefits as fish mature to later life stages. Given the rapid ecosystem changes Pacific Salmon are experiencing throughout their life cycles, practices such as this may have increasing utility and import.

Bosch, William J. [Yakama Nation Fisheries Toppeni↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of head-starting on multi-year space use and survival of an at-risk tortoise

A major challenge in the recovery of long-lived at-risk taxa like turtles is low juvenile recruitment. Head-starting—the raising of juveniles to larger sizes to improve survival—is one tool that can be used in circumstances where juvenile recruitment is limited. Due to declining populations and difficulty detecting juveniles, however, lack of knowledge of the ecology of juveniles can hinder efforts to develop and evaluate head-starting programs for many turtle species. We sought to inform recovery efforts of Mojave desert tortoises by quantifying multi-year space use and survival of head-started juveniles after release. We radio-tracked tortoises head-started under three different husbandry treatments that varied in rearing duration (from two to over six years) and whether head-starting included an indoor rearing component the first year. We compared postrelease space use and survival as a function of treatment, release size, and time since release. We found that space use, including home range size and site fidelity, varied by husbandry treatment, with smaller and younger tortoises having smaller home ranges and higher site fidelity. Additionally, home range size decreased and site fidelity increased with time since release across treatments. Tortoises with an indoor-rearing component experiencing increased risk of mortality as movement increased compared to tortoises reared solely outdoors. Nevertheless, survival did not differ among treatments or with tortoise age or size. Regardless of husbandry treatment, head-started tortoises exhibited similar space-use and survival overall. Our study provides insight into juvenile tortoise behavior and head-starting as a tool for tortoise conservation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

BST-2/Tetherin is involved in BAFF-enhanced proliferation and survival via canonical NF-κB signaling in neoplastic B-lymphoid cells

Highlights: • BST-2 doze dependently responded to BAFF in neoplastic B cells. • BST-2 inhibition defected the proliferation and survival of neoplastic B cells. • BST-2 facilitated BAFF-induced NF-κB signaling in neoplastic B-lymphoid cells. • BAFF-induced NF-κB signaling is required for the proliferation and survival of neoplastic B cells. The development of Sjögren's syndrome (SS) is accompanied by B cell hyperproliferation and mutation. Our previous study identified aberrant expression of BST-2 (also known as Tetherin/CD317) in B cells from either the peripheral blood or infiltrated salivary glands. However, the roles of BST-2 in the regulation of B cell activation remain unknown. In this study, we identified that BST-2 can respond to BAFF simulation but not to other B cell simulators in neoplastic B cell lines. A CCK-8 assay, an EdU assay and Annexin V/PI staining indicated that BST-2 inhibition attenuated BAFF-enhanced proliferation and survival in both Raji cells and Daudi cells. Screening of BAFF-related signaling in neoplastic B-lymphoid cells indicated that BST-2 was involved in the regulation of NF-κB signaling upon BAFF simulation. However, inhibition of NF-κB by JSH-23 significantly reduced the proliferation and survival of Raji and Daudi cells under both normal and BAFF-simulated conditions. Collectively, our results indicate that BST-2/Tetherin is a BAFF-responsive membrane factor involved in the regulation of NF-κB signaling, thereby assisting in the proliferation and survival of neoplastic B-lymphoid cells. Our study provides a potential molecular mechanism underlying aberrant overactivation of B cells upon SS development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Relative reproductive phenology and synchrony affect neonate survival in a nonprecocial ungulate

Abstract Degree of reproductive synchronization in prey is hypothesized as a predator defense strategy reducing prey risk via predator satiation or predator avoidance. Species with precocial young, especially those exposed to specialist predators, should be highly synchronous to satiate predators (predator satiation hypothesis), while prey with nonprecocial (i.e. altricial) young, especially those exposed to generalist predators, should become relatively asynchronous to avoid predator detection (predator avoidance hypothesis). The white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in North America is an example of a nonprecocial ungulate that uses the hider strategy early in life; its primary predator (coyote; Canis latrans ) is a generalist, making white‐tailed deer a good model species to test the predator avoidance hypothesis. We used birth dates and known fates of white‐tailed deer neonates ( n = 1,032) across nine study sites varying in relative synchrony and predator assemblages to test the predator avoidance hypothesis. We predicted that relative birthing asynchrony of the population would increase relative survival at the population level; therefore, at the individual scale, neonate birth date nearer to mean birthing date in a respective population would not influence individual survival. Coyotes were responsible for the majority of predation events, and survival of those neonates increased the closer the individual was born to peak birthing season in each respective population. Also, at the population level, reproductive asynchronization negatively affected survival. Contrary to the predator avoidance hypothesis, our data indicate patterns in neonate survival for white‐tailed deer better support the predator satiation hypothesis at the individual and population level. Additionally, coyotes may present a selective force great enough to shift reproductive synchrony such that predator satiation may become a feasible defense strategy for neonates at local spatial scales. Our results indicate that synchronizing reproduction may still be the most effective strategy to reduce individual predation risk from generalist predators, particularly when the window of heightened resource availability to the prey is narrow. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Michel, Eric S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gambusia holbrooki Survive Shear Stress, Pressurization and Avoid Blade Strike in a Simulated Pumped Hydroelectric Scheme

Pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) projects are being considered worldwide as a means of achieving political renewable energy targets in a way that stabilises baseload energy supply from often intermittent renewable energy sources. Unlike a conventional hydroelectric system that only pass water in a downstream direction, a feature of PHES is that it relies on the bi-directional flow of water. In some cases this flow can be across different waterbodies or catchments, posing a risk of inadvertently expanding the range of aquatic animals like fish. The risk of this happening depends on the likelihood of survival of individuals, which remains poorly understood for turbines that are pumping rather than generating. This study quantified the survival of a globally widespread and invasive poeciliid fish, Eastern gambusia (Gambusia holbrooki) when exposed hydraulic stresses characteristic of what would be experienced through a PHES during the pumping phase. A shear flume and hyperbaric chamber were used to expose fish to different strain rates and rapid and sustained pressurisation. A blade strike model was also used to predict survival of fish passing through a Francis dual turbine / pump. The ranges simulated were based on design and operational conditions provided for a PHES scheme being proposed in south-eastern Australia. All gambusia tested survived extremely high (up to 7600 kPa gauge pressure) pressurisation, high levels of shear stress (up to 1853 s -1 ), and the majority (> 93 %) were unlikely to be struck by a turbine blade. Given their tolerance to these extreme simulated stresses, we conclude that gambusia will likely survive passage through a PHES scheme. Therefore, where a new PHES poses the risk of inadvertently expanding the range of gambusia or similar poeciliid species, measures to minimise their spread or mitigate their ecosystem impacts should be considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗