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NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning for NASA Advanced Information Systems

NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program is one of several Technology programs managed by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) in the Earth Science Division (ESD). The AIST Program focuses on advanced information systems and novel computer science technologies that will be needed by NASA Earth Science in the next 5 to 10 years. The three main thrusts of the AIST Program deal with Novel Observing Strategies (NOS), Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). For all these thrusts, Machine Learning (ML) is increasingly being used in multiple aspects of Earth science systems, e.g., for onboard autonomy and decision making, for the analysis of massive and diverse datasets as well as more recently for developing surrogate models that will represent one of the main components of future Digital Twins of the Earth. Particularly, ESDT technologies developed by the AIST Program will allow to develop integrated Earth Science frameworks that will mirror the Earth with state-of-the-art models (Earth system models and others), timely and relevant observations, and analytic tools. These information systems will be used for supporting near- and long-term science and policy decisions. ESDT frameworks will build on previously developed AIST capabilities and technologies to integrate interconnected models with continuous streams of observations, data analytics, data assimilation, simulations, advanced visualizations and the ability to conduct "what-if" scenarios. This talk will describe the three thrusts of the AIST Program with a special focus on Machine Learning and how it is being used at all steps of the Earth Science data lifecycle.

Mathematical and Computer Sciences (General)↗
NASA NTRS1993

Surrogates for numerical simulations; optimization of eddy-promoter heat exchangers

Although the advent of fast and inexpensive parallel computers has rendered numerous previously intractable calculations feasible, many numerical simulations remain too resource-intensive to be directly inserted in engineering optimization efforts. An attractive alternative to direct insertion considers models for computational systems: the expensive simulation is evoked only to construct and validate a simplified, input-output model; this simplified input-output model then serves as a simulation surrogate in subsequent engineering optimization studies. A simple 'Bayesian-validated' statistical framework for the construction, validation, and purposive application of static computer simulation surrogates is presented. As an example, dissipation-transport optimization of laminar-flow eddy-promoter heat exchangers are considered: parallel spectral element Navier-Stokes calculations serve to construct and validate surrogates for the flowrate and Nusselt number; these surrogates then represent the originating Navier-Stokes equations in the ensuing design process.

Patera, Anthony T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of the Aerosol Size Distribution Using a Neural Network Surrogate for the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7)

One objective of atmospheric simulations is to quantify the distribution of aerosols and their properties. Accurate parameterizations of the processes governing aerosol mass, particle number, and particle size distribution are important for predicting the Earth’s net radiative balance and aerosol-cloud interactions. The Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7) is a two-moment aerosol model that simulates mass, number, and size distribution of seven modes comprised of internally mixed aerosol species. The two-moment scheme adds significant computational expense but allows for the prediction of varying particle size distribution relative to the bulk method which predicts only total mass. In this work, we developed a neural network surrogate model for MAM7 (MAMnet) to predict the aerosol number concentration in NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) without adding prohibitive computational expense. MAMnet, can be driven by output from a single moment, mass-based, aerosol scheme (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol and Radiation model (GOCART)) or from reanalysis products (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)). MAMnet was trained using number concentrations from a 5-year GEOS/MAM7 simulation at 1-degree horizontal resolution and using the total mass calculated across modes as inputs, as well as temperature and air density. The model architecture for MAMnet was based on AlexNet, the 2012 winner of the ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge. While some modifications were necessary to accommodate our problem, important aspects of the network were preserved. MAMnet was able to reproduce zonal dynamics and spatial distributions of the aerosol number concentration however predictability in the upper troposphere was poor.

Katherine H Breen↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multifidelity, Multidisciplinary Design Under Uncertainty with Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos

The primary objective of this work is to develop an approach for multifidelity uncertainty quantification and to lay the framework for future design under uncertainty efforts. In this study, multifidelity is used to describe both the fidelity of the modeling of the physical systems, as well as the difference in the uncertainty in each of the models. For computational efficiency, a multifidelity surrogate modeling approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos using the point-collocation technique is developed for the treatment of both multifidelity modeling and multifidelity uncertainty modeling. Two stochastic model problems are used to demonstrate the developed methodologies: a transonic airfoil model and multidisciplinary aircraft analysis model. The results of both showed the multifidelity modeling approach was able to predict the output uncertainty predicted by the high-fidelity model as a significant reduction in computational cost.

West, Thomas K., IV↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fast Machine Learning Lidar Surrogate Simulator: Pristine Clear Sky

The simulations of lidar signals and retrievals rely on a range of optic-physical models, such as radiative transfer models, particle scattering and absorption models, along with the output data from atmospheric physical models. Integrating these different models to represent signals of a lidar system is computationally expensive, and performing backward retrievals can be complex and ambiguous. However, with the advantages of Machine Learning, there is a new potential for building effective lidar signal database linked to corresponding atmospheric profiles. For this project, we are developing a fast pre-trained neural network as the lidar surrogate simulator using simulated data for a CALIPSO-like lidar (355 nm, 532nm, and 1064nm), and a CO2 differential absorption lidar (DIAL) near 1571nm. Specifically, we utilize a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to map the relationships between atmospheric profiles (pressure, temperature, air density and CO2 mixing ratio) and lidar signals. This approach allows us to build machine learning based simulators that can reconstruct lidar signals at specific bands from MERRA reanalysis data, and perform retrievals of atmospheric profiles using lidar signals at various wavelengths. As a first step, the results show the potential of this method to establish a foundational model for sensor signals. This model offers the promise of enabling both accurate predictions and rapid retrievals, providing a more efficient approach to signal processing and analysis.

Shan Zeng↗
NASA NTRS2005

Surrogate-based Analysis and Optimization

A major challenge to the successful full-scale development of modem aerospace systems is to address competing objectives such as improved performance, reduced costs, and enhanced safety. Accurate, high-fidelity models are typically time consuming and computationally expensive. Furthermore, informed decisions should be made with an understanding of the impact (global sensitivity) of the design variables on the different objectives. In this context, the so-called surrogate-based approach for analysis and optimization can play a very valuable role. The surrogates are constructed using data drawn from high-fidelity models, and provide fast approximations of the objectives and constraints at new design points, thereby making sensitivity and optimization studies feasible. This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the fundamental issues that arise in surrogate-based analysis and optimization (SBAO), highlighting concepts, methods, techniques, as well as practical implications. The issues addressed include the selection of the loss function and regularization criteria for constructing the surrogates, design of experiments, surrogate selection and construction, sensitivity analysis, convergence, and optimization. The multi-objective optimal design of a liquid rocket injector is presented to highlight the state of the art and to help guide future efforts.

Queipo, Nestor V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗
NASA NTRS1993

The rhesus measurement system: A new instrument for space research

The Rhesus Research Facility (RRF) is a research environment designed to study the effects of microgravity using rhesus primates as human surrogates. This experimental model allows investigators to study numerous aspects of microgravity exposure without compromising crew member activities. Currently, the RRF is slated for two missions to collect its data, the first mission is SLS-3, due to fly in late 1995. The RRF is a joint effort between the United States and France. The science and hardware portions of the project are being shared between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and France's Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). The RRF is composed of many different subsystems in order to acquire data, provide life support, environmental enrichment, computer facilities and measurement capabilities for two rhesus primates aboard a nominal sixteen day mission. One of these subsystems is the Rhesus Measurement System (RMS). The RMS is designed to obtain in-flight physiological measurements from sensors interfaced with the subject. The RMS will acquire, preprocess, and transfer the physiologic data to the Flight Data System (FDS) for relay to the ground during flight. The measurements which will be taken by the RMS during the first flight will be respiration, measured at two different sites; electromyogram (EMG) at three different sites; electroencephalogram (EEG); electrocardiogram (ECG); and body temperature. These measurements taken by the RMS will assist the research team in meeting the science objectives of the RRF project.

Schonfeld, Julie E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Optimization of Car Body under Constraints of Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH), and Crash

To be competitive on the today's market, cars have to be as light as possible while meeting the Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) requirements and conforming to Government-man dated crash survival regulations. The latter are difficult to meet because they involve very compute-intensive, nonlinear analysis, e.g., the code RADIOSS capable of simulation of the dynamics, and the geometrical and material nonlinearities of a thin-walled car structure in crash, would require over 12 days of elapsed time for a single design of a 390K elastic degrees of freedom model, if executed on a single processor of the state-of-the-art SGI Origin2000 computer. Of course, in optimization that crash analysis would have to be invoked many times. Needless to say, that has rendered such optimization intractable until now. The car finite element model is shown. The advent of computers that comprise large numbers of concurrently operating processors has created a new environment wherein the above optimization, and other engineering problems heretofore regarded as intractable may be solved. The procedure, shown, is a piecewise approximation based method and involves using a sensitivity based Taylor series approximation model for NVH and a polynomial response surface model for Crash. In that method the NVH constraints are evaluated using a finite element code (MSC/NASTRAN) that yields the constraint values and their derivatives with respect to design variables. The crash constraints are evaluated using the explicit code RADIOSS on the Origin 2000 operating on 256 processors simultaneously to generate data for a polynomial response surface in the design variable domain. The NVH constraints and their derivatives combined with the response surface for the crash constraints form an approximation to the system analysis (surrogate analysis) that enables a cycle of multidisciplinary optimization within move limits. In the inner loop, the NVH sensitivities are recomputed to update the NVH approximation model while keeping the Crash response surface constant. In every outer loop, the Crash response surface approximation is updated, including a gradual increase in the order of the response surface and the response surface extension in the direction of the search. In this optimization task, the NVH discipline has 30 design variables while the crash discipline has 20 design variables. A subset of these design variables (10) are common to both the NVH and crash disciplines. In order to construct a linear response surface for the Crash discipline constraints, a minimum of 21 design points would have to be analyzed using the RADIOSS code. On a single processor in Origin 2000 that amount of computing would require over 9 months! In this work, these runs were carried out concurrently on the Origin 2000 using multiple processors, ranging from 8 to 16, for each crash (RADIOSS) analysis. Another figure shows the wall time required for a single RADIOSS analysis using varying number of processors, as well as provides a comparison of 2 different common data placement procedures within the allotted memories for each analysis. The initial design is an infeasible design with NVH discipline Static Torsion constraint violations of over 10%. The final optimized design is a feasible design with a weight reduction of 15 kg compared to the initial design. This work demonstrates how advanced methodology for optimization combined with the technology of concurrent processing enables applications that until now were out of reach because of very long time-to-solution.

Kodiyalam, Srinivas↗
NASA NTRS2009

Nitric Oxide and Oxygen Air-Contamination Effects on Extinction Limits of Non-Premixed Hydrocarbon-Air Flames for a HIFiRE Scramjet

Unique nitric oxide (NO) and oxygen air-contamination effects on the extinction Flame Strength (FS) of non-premixed hydrocarbon (HC) vs. air flames are characterized for 7 gaseous HCs, using a new idealized 9.3 mm straight-tube Opposed Jet Burner (OJB) at 1 atm. FS represents a laminar strain-induced extinction limit based on cross-section-average air jet velocity, Uair, that sustains combustion of a counter jet of gaseous fuel just before extinction. Besides ethane, propane, butane, and propylene, the HCs include ethylene, methane, and a 64 mole-% ethylene / 36 % methane mixture, the writer s previously recommended gaseous surrogate fuel for HIFiRE scramjet tests. The HC vs. clean air part of the work is an extension of a May 2008 JANNAF paper that characterized surrogates for the HIFiRE project that should mimic the flameholding of reformed (thermally- or catalytically-cracked) endothermic JP-like fuels. The new FS data for 7 HCs vs. clean air are thus consolidated with the previously validated data, normalized to absolute (local) axial-input strain rates, and co-plotted on a dual kinetically dominated reactivity scale. Excellent agreement with the prior data is obtained for all 7 fuels. Detailed comparisons are also made with recently published (Univ. Va) numerical results for ethylene extinction. A 2009-revised ethylene kinetic model (Univ. Southern Cal) led to predicted limits within approx. 5 % (compared to 45 %, earlier) of this writer s 2008 (and present) ethylene FSs, and also with recent independent data (Univ. Va) obtained on a new OJB system. These +/- 5 % agreements, and a hoped-for "near-identically-performing" reduced kinetics model, would greatly enhance the capability for accurate numerical simulations of surrogate HC flameholding in scramjets. The measured air-contamination effects on normalized FS extinction limits are projected to assess ongoing Arc-Heater-induced "facility test effects" of NO production (e.g., 3 mole-%) and resultant oxygen depletion (from 21 to 19.5 %), for testing the "64/36" surrogate fuel in Langley s Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility for HIFiRE engine designs. The FS results show a generally small (< 4 %) "nitric oxide enhancement" effect, relative to clean air, for up to 3 % NO (freestream Mach number up to 7 in Arc Jet testing). However, a progressively large "oxygendeficiency weakening" effect develops. For 3 % NO, a net weakening of 26 % in FS is derived for the "64/36" fuel vs. air. The corresponding net weakening for pure ethylene is 20 %. A number of practical recommendations regarding facility test effects are offered.

Pellett, Gerald L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dragonfly Rotor Optimization using Machine Learning Applied to an OVERFLOW Generated Airfoil Database

NASA’s 4th New Frontiers Mission is the Titan Dragonfly relocatable lander. This coaxial quadrotor vehicle will be launched on a rocket to Titan in 2028. Following a gravity assisted Earth flyby and an approximate 6-year transit, Dragonfly will enter the Titan atmosphere around 2034 with the goal of exploring Titan’s pre-biotic chemistry and habitability. The multirotor design for this unique application has continually evolved since 2016 with constraints such as Titan’s cryogenic atmosphere at 95 Kelvin (-288 F), gravity 14% that of Earth’s, atmospheric density 440% of standard sea-level air, and the inability to test the entire system together under all these conditions until the first flight on Titan. This paper focuses on rotor design aspects of the Dragonfly lander and introduces a novel framework for multirotor design optimization considering multiple flight conditions. The methodology leverages machine learning methods and is demonstrated in the context of Dragonfly. A new OVERFLOW Machine Learning Airfoil Performance (PALMO) database is first presented. PALMO is then wrapped inside a Bayesian optimization framework and applied to a 4-rotor system (one side of the Dragonfly lander). Training data is generated on each iteration of the optimization using the CAMRAD-II comprehensive analysis software to evaluate successive rotor designs in multiple relevant flight conditions. An optimal design for the 4-rotor system was found with approximately 900 rotor designs analyzed in CAMRAD-II, which required 9 million queries of the PALMO surrogate models. This demonstration case evaluated 10,000,000 potential candidate rotor designs in 5.5 hours on 114 CPU cores using uniform inflow, and in 27.8 hours using the prescribed wake model. This work thus enables mid-fidelity rotor design optimization without requiring access to high-performance computing.

Dragonfly↗
NASA NTRS1996

Intelligent Planning and Scheduling for Controlled Life Support Systems

Planning in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) requires special look ahead capabilities due to the complex and long-term dynamic behavior of biological systems. This project characterizes the behavior of CELSS, identifies the requirements of intelligent planning systems for CELSS, proposes the decomposition of the planning task into short-term and long-term planning, and studies the crop scheduling problem as an initial approach to long-term planning. CELSS is studied in the realm of Chaos. The amount of biomass in the system is modeled using a bounded quadratic iterator. The results suggests that closed ecological systems can exhibit periodic behavior when imposed external or artificial control. The main characteristics of CELSS from the planning and scheduling perspective are discussed and requirements for planning systems are given. Crop scheduling problem is identified as an important component of the required long-term lookahead capabilities of a CELSS planner. The main characteristics of crop scheduling are described and a model is proposed to represent the problem. A surrogate measure of the probability of survival is developed. The measure reflects the absolute deviation of the vital reservoir levels from their nominal values. The solution space is generated using a probability distribution which captures both knowledge about the system and the current state of affairs at each decision epoch. This probability distribution is used in the context of an evolution paradigm. The concepts developed serve as the basis for the development of a simple crop scheduling tool which is used to demonstrate its usefulness in the design and operation of CELSS.

Leon, V. Jorge↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases.1 Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission.2 Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an Advanced Design Methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of Design of Experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development e ort. In order to t a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of Ground Rules and Assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated \what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are t to the outputs of each environment and are integrated via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any \what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will have the potential to lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases. Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission. Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an advanced design methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development effort. In order to fit a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of ground rules and assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated "what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are fit to the outputs of each environment and are "integrated" via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any ''what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will help ensure lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Mixer-Ejector Nozzle with Thermal Acoustic Shield for Jet Noise Reduction

A tendency for excessive exhaust jet mixing noise from low bypass ratio turbofan engines is recognized as a key challenge in the design of commercial supersonic aircraft. In this work we investigate a unique combination of two noise mitigation methods as a novel strategy to reduce jet mixing noise. First, a thermal acoustic shield (TAS) is used to reflect high frequency acoustic waves at small angles to the jet axis; second, a mixer-ejector (ME) nozzle is used to mechanically shield noise propagating at large angles to the axis. The ME shroud also provides a convenient location for a TAS nozzle and improves TAS effectiveness by limiting the downstream extent of high frequency noise generation. In an additional benefit for a velocity-matched TAS stream, the ME allows a reduction in strength of the TAS outer shear layer which could serve as a secondary noise source. The present work provides a quantitative assessment of the ME-TAS concept, using a combination of RANS CFD simulations, acoustic analogy calculations for the farfield Green's function, and surrogate-based modeling and parameter space exploration. We first evaluate a subscale configuration, then use scaling arguments to apply subscale results to the systems-level analysis of a flight configuration; the latter configuration includes a generic low bypass ratio turbofan engine with an engine-driven electric generator for supplementary heating of the TAS stream. Additional RANS CFD calculations are performed for a notional ME-TAS geometry based on the full scale configuration, and various modeling assumptions and operational characteristics are evaluated. The ME-TAS concept is shown to provide effective shielding for high frequency jet noise, and should enable comparable noise suppression to a stand-alone ME of considerably greater length, weight and drag. In addition to investigating the integrated ME-TAS system, the present work differs from previous research into TAS and related fluidic shield concepts through the inclusion of modern numerical analysis tools and the systematic numerical examination of various design parameters.

thermal acoustic shield↗