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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models: Preprint

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models for computationally expensive simulations, users can interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the integration of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble visualization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian model updating with finite element vs surrogate models: Application to a miter gate structural system

Bayesian finite element (FE) model updating using direct model evaluations of large-scale high-fidelity FE models is extremely computationally expensive. Surrogate models can be used as fast emulators of FE models to accelerate the model calibration process. The physics/mechanics-based FE models are still the underpinning behind the surrogate models. Here, this paper evaluates the loss in accuracy and the gain in computational time while performing Bayesian model updating by using surrogate model evaluations compared to using direct FE model evaluations. This evaluation is crucial before entirely relying on surrogate models in model updating for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage prognosis (DP) purposes. This paper also demonstrates Bayesian updating and surrogate model construction of large-scale high-fidelity FE models of infrastructure systems. In this regard, the miter gate structural system is considered as the testbed structure. Three predominant damage modes (loss of contact between gate and wall, loss of thickness due to corrosion, and loss of tension in the diagonal rods) are considered for model updating purposes. Bayesian model updating is performed using direct FE evaluations by leveraging parallel computing. Two types of surrogates, namely polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian process regression (GPR), are developed for the miter gate. Model updating is performed again using the trained surrogate models, and the updating results are compared with their counterparts obtained using the direct FE evaluation results. The posterior distribution of the FE model parameters obtained using the trained surrogates are sufficiently accurate with respect to the posterior obtained utilizing the direct FE evaluations. In addition, an approximate 4-fold decrease in the computational time was observed when using surrogate model evaluations instead of direct FE evaluations for model updating.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS): Surrogate Plant-level Modeling and Control Algorithms Integration

This report discusses progress on the modeling and integration task as part of the development of Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS). What follows is a discussion of the software tools used to develop a surrogate microreactor plant-level model, MACS module development, and a summary of the findings from integration with a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) setup at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Oak Ridge National Laboratory worked with INL to understand available hardware at INL (such as existing control platforms). With this information and using a preliminary framework for MACS with software interfaces defined, surrogate models and initial automated control algorithms were created for integration into the hardware to provide a HIL demonstration platform for MACS. Available reduced order reactor models that leverage existing microreactor neutronics and thermal hydraulics models have been integrated in the surrogate plant-level model. The surrogate model has been evaluated for sensitivity of all parameters and the MACS software modules (including the surrogate model) have been demonstrated to interact with the hardware. The integration, however, pointed to the need for further improvements to the framework—and specifically improvements to the interfaces to ensure that the HIL simulator is capable of longer-term stable operation with MACS in the loop. These improvements will be the focus of future research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Model for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems

The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), energy manifold (EM), balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational overhead and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The findings shed light on the accuracy and applicability of the surrogate models in practical scenarios, demonstrating their potential to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES and inform future research and development efforts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Models for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems

The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), steam manifold, balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational resource and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The exceptional performance, with low root-mean-squared errors and R-squared scores of at least 99.8% across all individual surrogate models, underscores their accuracy and practical applicability. These results demonstrate the potential of these models to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES, offering insights that can shape future research and development efforts.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dataset for SIAM MPI23 Project "Model inversion for complex physical systems using low-dimensional surrogates"

Training and testing data for the SIAM MPI23 workshop "Model inversion for complex physical systems using low-dimensional surrogates". The data consists of ensembles of input and output pairs corresponding to queries of a 2D saturated groundwater flow model. The inputs consist of random vectors which map to discretized model parameter fields via a Kosambi-Karhunen-Loève expansion. Output corresponds to discretized pressure fields.

basis adaptation, conditional Karhunen-Loève expan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combustion of petroleum-based transportation fuels and their blends with biofuels: a new approach for developing surrogates and understanding the effects of blending

Accurate and versatile reaction mechanisms are necessary to simulate combustion of transportation fuels blended with biofuels for improving fuel efficiency, reducing fuel consumption and mitigating the formation and emissions of combustion products harmful to the atmosphere. This project involved a combined effort of simulation and experimentation of liquid fuel burning using a combustion configuration amenable to numerical modeling with a level of detail not previously achieved for blends of biofuels with gasoline certification and surrogate fuels. The configuration of an isolated droplet burning under conditions where gas transport arises solely from fuel evaporation was selected as the platform for experiments and numerical modeling. The spherical symmetry and one-dimensional gas transport that results enabled simulating the droplet burning process with an precedented level of detail. Processes associated with unsteady gas and liquid transport, formation of particulate and gaseous products, radiation, multicomponent phase equilibrium at the droplet surface and moving boundary effects from droplet evaporation, were incorporated in a single numerical framework. The numerical model was based on the open source code OPENSmoke++ (OS) adapted to incorporate the effects noted above. In addition to simulation, an experimental design was developed for the isolated droplet configuration to acquire the data needed for validating the numerical model. Several broad accomplishments of the project were the following: demonstrating generally excellent agreement between measured and simulated combustion parameters for the fuel blends examined that included mixtures of heptane and isobutanol as a model system, and surrogates comprised of up to seven miscible components mixed with ethanol or isobutanol as representative biofuel additives; using a new approach to validate reaction mechanisms of biofuel blends which incorporated fuel evaporation into the process along with developing an experimental design for acquiring data to compare with simulations; and showing that a wealth of information could be obtained on the combustion physics of biofuels from experiments requiring volumes on the order of only nanoliters at a time thus opening the way to evaluating biofuels synthesized by new processes early in development.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications

Surrogate modeling for systems with high-dimensional quantities of interest remains challenging, particularly when training data are costly to acquire. This work develops multifidelity methods for multiple-input multiple-output linear regression targeting data-limited applications with high-dimensional outputs. Multifidelity methods integrate many inexpensive low-fidelity model evaluations with limited, costly high-fidelity evaluations. We introduce two projection-based multifidelity linear regression approaches with linear and nonlinear features that leverage principal component basis vectors for dimensionality reduction and combine multifidelity data through: (i) a direct data augmentation using low-fidelity data, and (ii) a data augmentation incorporating explicit linear corrections between low-fidelity and high-fidelity data. The data augmentation approaches combine high-fidelity and low-fidelity data into a unified training set and train the linear regression model through weighted least squares with fidelity-specific weights. We introduce a proximity-based weighting scheme with automatic weight selection strategy through cross-validation. Here, the proposed multifidelity linear regression methods are demonstrated on approximating the surface pressure field of a hypersonic vehicle in flight and the temperature field on an aircraft disc braking system. In an ultra low-data regime of no more than twelve high-fidelity samples, multifidelity linear regression achieves approximately 2% – 12% improvement in median accuracy and a higher R 2 score relative to single-fidelity methods at comparable computational cost.

data augmentation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical note: Deep learning for creating surrogate models of precipitation in Earth system models

Abstract. We investigate techniques for using deep neural networks to produce surrogatemodels for short-term climate forecasts. A convolutional neural network istrained on 97 years of monthly precipitation output from the 1pctCO2 run (theCO 2 concentration increases by 1 % per year) simulated by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The neural network clearly outperforms a persistence forecast anddoes not show substantially degraded performance even when the forecast lengthis extended to 120 months. The model is prone to underpredicting precipitationin areas characterized by intense precipitation events. Scheduled sampling(forcing the model to gradually use its own past predictions rather than groundtruth) is essential for avoiding amplification of early forecasting errors.However, the use of scheduled sampling also necessitates preforecasting(generating forecasts prior to the first forecast date) to obtain adequateperformance for the first few prediction time steps. We document the trainingprocedures and hyperparameter optimization process for researchers who wish toextend the use of neural networks in developing surrogate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SysCaps (Language Interfaces for Simulation Surrogates of Complex Systems) [SWR-24-97]

You've found the official code repository for the paper "SysCaps: Language Interfaces for Simulation Surrogates of Complex Systems," presented at the Foundation Models for Science: Progress, Opportunities, and Challenges workshop at NeurIPS 2024. Our paper conjectures that interfaces (both text templates as well as conversational) makes interacting with simulation surrogate models for complex systems more intuitive and accessible for both non-experts and experts. "System captions", or SysCaps, are text-based descriptions of systems based on information contained in simulation metadata. Our paper's goal is to train multimodal regression models that take text inputs (SysCaps) and timeseries inputs (exogenous system conditions such as hourly weather) and regress timeseries simulation outputs (e.g. hourly building energy consumption). The experiments in our paper with building and wind farm simulators, which can be reproduced using this codebase, aim to help us understand whether a) accurate regression in this setting is possible and b) if so, how well can we do it. Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.19653

Emami, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Modeling Meets Machine Learning: What Can We Learn?

Machine learning is increasingly recognized as a promising technology in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences. There can be no argument that this technique is incredibly successful in image recognition with immediate applications in diagnostics including electrophysiology, radiology, or pathology, where we have access to massive amounts of annotated data. However, machine learning often performs poorly in prognosis, especially when dealing with sparse data. This is a field where classical physics-based simulation seems to remain irreplaceable. In this review, we identify areas in the biomedical sciences where machine learning and multiscale modeling can mutually benefit from one another: Machine learning can integrate physics-based knowledge in the form of governing equations, boundary conditions, or constraints to manage ill-posted problems and robustly handle sparse and noisy data; multiscale modeling can integrate machine learn- ing to create surrogate models, identify system dynamics and parameters, analyze sensitivities, and quantify uncertainty to bridge the scales and understand the emergence of function. With a view towards applications in the life sciences, we discuss the state of the art of combining machine learning and multiscale modeling, identify applications and opportunities, raise open questions, and address potential challenges and limitations. We anticipate that it will stimulate discussion within the community of computational mechanics and reach out to other disciplines including mathematics, statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, systems biology, and precision medicine to join forces towards creating robust and efficient models for biological systems.

machine learning, multiscale modeling, physics-bas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed latent neural operator for real-time predictions of time-dependent parametric PDEs

Deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown significant promise as surrogate models for systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), enabling accurate mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. However, when applied to systems with high-dimensional input-output mappings arising from large numbers of spatial and temporal collocation points, these models often require heavily overparameterized networks, leading to long training times. Latent DeepONet addresses some of these challenges by introducing a two-step approach: first learning a reduced latent space using a separate model, followed by operator learning within this latent space. While efficient, this method is inherently data-driven and lacks mechanisms for incorporating physical laws, limiting its robustness and generalizability in data-scarce settings. Here, in this work, we propose PI-Latent-NO, a physics-informed latent neural operator framework that integrates governing physics directly into the learning process. Our architecture features two coupled DeepONets trained end-to-end: a Latent-DeepONet that learns a low-dimensional representation of the solution, and a Reconstruction-DeepONet that maps this latent representation back to the physical space. By embedding PDE constraints into the training via automatic differentiation, our method eliminates the need for labeled training data and ensures physics-consistent predictions. The proposed framework is both memory and compute-efficient, exhibiting near-constant scaling with problem size and demonstrating significant speedups over traditional physics-informed operator models. We validate our approach on a range of parametric PDEs, showcasing its accuracy, scalability, and suitability for real-time prediction in complex physical systems.

Latent representations↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site

Regulatory oversight of a geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) project relies on iterative estimations, throughout the project lifetime, of the area where increased risks to underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) may occur due to injection of CO2. This area, referred to as Area of Review (AoR), is typically delineated by predicting the migration of fluid between the reservoir and the lowermost USDW via an open wellbore using predictions from physics-based reservoir simulators. The inherent uncertainty in input parameters used in reservoir modeling therefore affects the accuracy of determining the AoR for a project. Furthermore, the standard analytical approaches for calculating a critical pressure to delineate the risk area yield an infinite AoR for cases where the injection reservoir is overpressured relative to the USDW. A methodology is presented in this paper to better characterize the risk to USDWs while accounting for the uncertainty in reservoir modeling, with an application to a permitted GCS project with an overpressured injection formation, FutureGen 2.0. The methodology is demonstrated using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to develop a probabilistic estimate of impact risk to USDW quality. CO2 and pressure predictions from the reservoir modeling conducted using the STOMP-CO2 simulator for the FutureGen 2.0 site are used in a NRAP-Open-IAM model with reservoir, wellbore, and aquifer components to: (1) assess the extent of potential leakage into the USDW for the predicted reservoir pressure conditions; (2) evaluate the extent of potential impact using “no-net-degradation” thresholds; and (3) account for uncertainty in reservoir permeabilities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scientist-in-the-Loop Data Analytics Framework for Intelligent Simulation Model Tuning and Validation

This project developed a scientist-in-the-loop data analytics framework for intelligent simulation model tuning and validation, targeting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its solar energy variant, WRF-Solar-BNL. Domain experts, such as climate scientists, depend on large-scale numerical simulations for knowledge discovery and decision-making, yet the complexity of parameter tuning and the disconnect between automated optimization and domain expertise pose significant challenges. We extended an interactive visual analytics framework that enables domain experts to observe and intervene in the computational steering process by identifying disagreements between the simulation model, surrogate model, and the expert’s domain knowledge. Using Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Process Regression as the surrogate model, our system allows users to probe parameter relationships, analyze correlation patterns, and adjust tuning parameters in real time. We developed use cases for solar irradiance forecasting through sustained collaboration with Brookhaven National Laboratory, resolving critical model configuration challenges and achieving meaningful reductions in prediction error. The project supported one PhD student, one MS student, and eight undergraduate students across three Data Science Capstone projects, resulting in one master’s thesis.

Dasgupta, Aritra [New Jersey Institute of Technolo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating Multiscale Materials Modeling with Machine Learning

The focus of this project is to accelerate and transform the workflow of multiscale materials modeling by developing an integrated toolchain seamlessly combining DFT, SNAP, LAMMPS, (shown in Figure 1-1) and a machine-learning (ML) model that will more efficiently extract information from a smaller set of first-principles calculations. Our ML model enables us to accelerate first-principles data generation by interpolating existing high fidelity data, and extend the simulation scale by extrapolating high fidelity data (10 2 atoms) to the mesoscale (10 4 atoms). It encodes the underlying physics of atomic interactions on the microscopic scale by adapting a variety of ML techniques such as deep neural networks (DNNs), and graph neural networks (GNNs). We developed a new surrogate model for density functional theory using deep neural networks. The developed ML surrogate is demonstrated in a workflow to generate accurate band energies, total energies, and density of the 298K and 933K Aluminum systems. Furthermore, the models can be used to predict the quantities of interest for systems with more number of atoms than the training data set. We have demonstrated that the ML model can be used to compute the quantities of interest for systems with 100,000 Al atoms. When compared with 2000 Al system the new surrogate model is as accurate as DFT, but three orders of magnitude faster. We also explored optimal experimental design techniques to choose the training data and novel Graph Neural Networks to train on smaller data sets. These are promising methods that need to be explored in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗