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Computational Bayesian Framework for Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty in Subsurface Environmental Modeling

Subsurface environmental systems are open and complex, in which intricate hydrologic, microbiologic, and geochemical processes occur and interact at multiple scales. Understanding and predicting system responses to natural forces (e.g., climate changes) and human activities (e.g., contaminant remediation and CO 2 sequestration) is indispensable for managing water resources, cleaning subsurface contamination at many sites of the Department of Energy (DOE), and providing expert analysis to inform policy-making on long-term stewardship of nuclear waste disposal and CO 2 storage sites. Groundwater reactive transport modeling is necessary for understanding and predicting the complex subsurface environmental system. However, as complex systems are never completely predictable, model predictions of the subsurface system are inherently uncertain, and uncertainty is one of the greatest obstacles in simulating the subsurface environment. Quantifying predictive uncertainty of the complex system is critical to test model predictive power, support decision-making, and guide experimental design and data collection for uncertainty reduction. This project tackled two major obstacles to efficient and effective quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty in simulating the complex subsurface environment. One obstacle is that existing methods of uncertainty quantification are too fragmented and incomplete for understanding and predicting the complex subsurface environment as a whole. The other obstacle is that existing methods of uncertainty quantification are computationally demanding and may not be applicable to groundwater reactive transport modeling that is always computationally expensive. The above two obstacles to uncertainty quantification directly affect the design of data collection schemes for uncertainty reduction. In this project, we developed a comprehensive Bayesian framework to remove the first obstacle. The second obstacle was tackled by using the sparse grid methods, which were originally developed and analyzed for numerical integration in the field of applied mathematics. We integrated the sparse grid methods into the Bayesian framework seamlessly, which led to a sparse-grid-based method of Bayesian uncertainty analysis. The developed computational Bayesian framework has been applied to a number of subsurface environmental problems through collaborating with scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The applications demonstrated that the computational Bayesian framework is general and compatible with any models and numerical codes of subsurface modeling. It is thus can be applied to gain insights for subsurface environmental modeling. This project helped the PI achieve his career goal to advance the state-of-the-art computational methods in uncertainty quantification for subsurface environmental modeling. This project supported two doctoral students, two master students, and one post-doc. The two doctoral students, after their graduation, worked as post-docs at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The project produced a total of 29 journal articles (four under review), one book chapter, and a number of conference proceedings and abstracts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A global perspective on bacterial diversity in the terrestrial deep subsurface

While recent efforts to catalogue Earth’s microbial diversity have focused upon surface and marine habitats, 12–20% of Earth’s biomass is suggested to exist in the terrestrial deep subsurface, compared to ~1.8% in the deep subseafloor. Metagenomic studies of the terrestrial deep subsurface have yielded a trove of divergent and functionally important microbiomes from a range of localities. However, a wider perspective of microbial diversity and its relationship to environmental conditions within the terrestrial deep subsurface is still required. Our meta-analysis reveals that terrestrial deep subsurface microbiota are dominated by Betaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Firmicutes, probably as a function of the diverse metabolic strategies of these taxa. Evidence was also found for a common small consortium of prevalent Betaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria operational taxonomic units across the localities. This implies a core terrestrial deep subsurface community, irrespective of aquifer lithology, depth and other variables, that may play an important role in colonizing and sustaining microbial habitats in the deep terrestrial subsurface. An in silico contamination-aware approach to analysing this dataset underscores the importance of downstream methods for assuring that robust conclusions can be reached from deep subsurface-derived sequencing data. Understanding the global panorama of microbial diversity and ecological dynamics in the deep terrestrial subsurface provides a first step towards understanding the role of microbes in global subsurface element and nutrient cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security (Final Report)

For the past two decades a slowly growing consensus has been that rising temperature is being caused by increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the Earth’s atmosphere. What is less consensual is what to do about it. Solutions range from reducing emissions to various ways to capture CO 2 (from effluents of power plants, as plants, etc.) and store it away from the atmosphere. The problem is of such magnitude that it is likely that we will need many methods. Also some methods would cause draconian harm to global economies. This work is about the storage part of the reducing of CO 2 in the atmosphere. There have been many methods proposed for storing CO 2 : in vegetation, at the bottom of oceans, in land farms, and in subsurface formations. The latter is particularly prominent given the large estimated volume in porous formation in the Earth, and the 50-year old experience in injecting CO 2 for enhanced oil recovery. This report is about the science behind subsurface storage, called here geological carbon storage or GCS. Effective GCS requires that billions of metric tons of CO 2 be injected into storage reservoirs annually. GCS feasibility requires balancing the opposing impacts of large emplacement (injection) rates without compromising caprock seal integrity during injection. Once injected, the challenge is to assure the injected CO 2 remains permanently stored. Under most conditions, CO 2 is in a supercritical state, or scCO 2 . scCO 2 is immiscible with the subsurface brine and has a factor of ten smaller viscosity, leading to the development of two-phase fluid flow and scCO 2 bypassing. After the injection of large volumes of scCO 2 , the pore pressure, state of stress, chemical, thermal, and biological steady-state or equilibrium conditions in the subsurface are disrupted, which may lead to unpredictable behavior because the responses to these changes are often non-linear. Current challenges for efficient and reliable scCO 2 storage are: (1) sustaining large injection rates; (2) using available pore space efficiently, and (3) controlling undesired or unexpected behavior, such as scCO 2 leakage. Various aspects of these challenges are addressed by collaborative projects within Center for Frontiers in Subsurface Energy Security (CFSES). Challenge 1 – Sustaining large storage rates. To offset the annual CO 2 emissions of in the United States, ~7 billion metric tons of CO 2 must be injected into the storage reservoirs annually. Injected CO 2 forms a plume that starts spreading, displacing originally resident brine, though inefficiently so. Because of its low viscosity, and buoyant forces, a CO 2 plume rises to the reservoir rock-caprock interface. Injecting large volumes of scCO 2 at sufficiently high rates into subsurface storage formations leads to increases in pore pressures, potential expansion of the reservoir rock, and may result in fracturing of the reservoir rock and/or caprock. CFSES research uses existing and new experimental and modeling approaches to identify chemical-physical controls on the permeability and pore pressure dynamics, anticipating geomechanical (fracturing) events, predicting multi-phase flow patterns and trapping of CO 2 . Challenge 2 – Using pore space with unprecedented efficiency. Since large volumes of scCO 2 are to be stored, the volume available in storage reservoirs must be used efficiently. Storage efficiency is defined as a fraction of pore space occupied by carbon dioxide. Current estimates are that less than 5 percent of available pore volume is available for storage because scCO 2 , having a smaller density and viscosity than reservoir brine, tends to form viscous fingers, and bypass available pore space. This flow regime results in a CO 2 plume spreading over large areas in subsurface. The research goal in Challenge 2 is to advance the fundamental understanding of two-phase flow through porous media, including molecular-to meter- scale experimental and modeling approaches. This work leads to novel strategies to ensure that injected CO 2 occupies more than 5% of the pore space, ideally up to 50%. Challenge 3 – Controlling undesired or unexpected behavior. Following the injection of scCO 2 , the subsurface reservoir re-equilibrates to different physical and chemical states. This re-equilibration in space and time could lead to unexpected and/or undesired behavior: fracturing of reservoir rock and/or caprock, development of preferential flow paths, CO 2 leakage (to the surface or overlaying fresh water reservoirs), induced seismicity, and activation of faults. One of the main research goals of CFSES was to advance the fundamental understanding of how individual chemical and physical processes are coupled. We particularly focused on the chemical-mechanical coupling, and flow-mechanical coupling. We collected experimental and modeling data to determine the temporal and spatial scales of the coupled processes, which may lead to pore collapse caused by creep, activation of fractures and faults, chemically-induced fracture propagation, and self-focusing of scCO 2 flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. In this study, we analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the E3SM to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ELM-3D v1.0). Multiple 10-year-long simulations were performed for a transect across a polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SR and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model predictions better agreed (higher R 2 , lower bias and RMSE) with observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59°C, 1.82°C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~ 10 cm shallower and ~ 5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on maximum thaw depths was modest, with mean absolute differences of ~ 3 cm. Our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the E3SM land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of microtopographic snow-redistribution and lateral subsurface processeson hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. Here, we analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the ACME Earth System Model (ESM) to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ALMv0-3D). Three 10-years long simulations were performed for a transect across polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SR and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model results show a better agreement (higher R 2 with lower bias and RMSE) for the observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59 °C, 1.82 °C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~10 cm shallower and ~5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on active layer depths was modest with mean absolute difference of ~3 cm. Our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the ACME land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subsurface Sounding of Mars: The Effects of Surface Roughness

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) will conduct a global survey of Mars from the Mars Express Orbiter starting in 2004. The primary objective of the subsurface observations is to detect material interfaces in the upper several kilometers of the crust of Mars, with a particular emphasis on mapping the 3D distribution of water and ice in that portion of the crust. In order to detect subsurface interfaces, the returned echo from the subsurface must be distinguished from noise and clutter, which can arise from a variety of sources. One source of clutter is surface topography that generates backscattered energy at the same time delay as the subsurface region of interest. Surface topography can affect the detectability of subsurface features in several other ways. Surface roughness at scales comparable or somewhat smaller than the radar wavelength reduces the coherency of the wave as it passes the upper interface. Also, surface slope (tilt) at scales of the radar footprint and larger (> 5 km) affects the apparent Doppler signature of the echoes, and effectively disperses the wave transmitted into the subsurface, making processing and interpretation difficult. In this paper, we report on the roughness characteristics of Mars at these various scales as measured by the Mars Global Surveyor Laser Altimeter (MOLA), and consider the implications for achieving the subsurface sounding goals of MARSIS. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Plaut, J. J.↗

A Tower-based Prototype VHF/UHF Radar for Subsurface Sensing: System Description and Data Inversion Results

Knowledge of subsurface characteristics such as permittivity variations and layering structure could provide a breakthrough in many terrestrial and planetary science disciplines. For Earth science, knowledge of subsurface and subcanopy soil moisture layers can enable the estimation of vertical flow in the soil column linking surface hydrologic processes with that in the subsurface. For planetary science, determining the existence of subsurface water and ice is regarded as one of the most critical information needs for the study of the origins of the solar system. The subsurface in general can be described as several near-parallel layers with rough interfaces. Each homogenous rough layer can be defined by its average thickness, permittivity, and rms interface roughness assuming a known surface spectral distribution. As the number and depth of layers increase, the number of measurements needed to invert for the layer unknowns also increases, and deeper penetration capability would be required. To nondestructively calculate the characteristics of the rough layers, a multifrequency polarimetric radar backscattering approach can be used. One such system is that we have developed for data prototyping of the Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Subsurface (MOSS) mission concept. A tower-mounted radar makes backscattering measurements at VHF, UHF, and L-band frequencies. The radar is a pulsed CW system, which uses the same wideband antenna to transmit and receive the signals at all three frequencies. To focus the beam at various incidence angles within the beamwidth of the antenna, the tower is moved vertically and measurements made at each position. The signals are coherently summed to achieve focusing and image formation in the subsurface. This requires an estimate of wave velocity profiles. To solve the inverse scattering problem for subsurface velocity profile simultaneously with radar focusing, we use an iterative technique based on a forward numerical solution of the layered rough surface problem. The layers are each defined in terms of a small number of unknown distributions as given above. An a priori estimate of the solution is first assumed, based on which the forward problem is solved for the backscattered measurements. This is compared with the measured data and using iterative techniques an update to the solution for the unknowns is calculated. The process continues until convergence is achieved. Numerical results will be shown using actual radar data acquired with the MOSS tower radar system in Arizona in Fall 2003, and compared with in-situ measurements.

Moghaddam, Mahta↗

Response of Subsurface Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities to Environmental Fluctuations (Final Technical Report)

Riparian floodplains are dynamic ecosystems linking terrestrial and riverine systems. These floodplains experience hydrological shifts such as changes in water table height, flooding, and drought and can be ‘hotspots’ of biogeochemical cycling due to shifting sediment moisture (and saturation) and subsurface exchanges of water, nutrients, and other compounds across different sediment layers. Subsurface microbial communities are the primary drivers of biogeochemical processes in floodplains, and thus their structure and function can directly influence both surface and groundwater quality. The microbial nitrogen (N) cycle is particularly important in floodplains as it affects nutrient availability and removal. Two functional guilds of chemoautotrophic (i.e. CO2-fixing) microorganisms are responsible for the first oxidative step of the N cycle, nitrification: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) catalyze the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite, while nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize nitrite to nitrate. Despite the critical role nitrification plays in N-cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, our understanding of the diversity, ecophysiology, and activity of nitrifying organisms in subsurface floodplain soils/sediments is extremely limited. To help address this critical knowledge gap, the overarching goal of this project was to determine how shifts in key environmental parameters and gradients impact microbial N-cycling communities/processes, with particular emphasis on nitrification, within hydrologically-variable floodplain sediments in the Wind River Basin near Riverton, Wyoming. The three specific objectives of this project were to: (1) to associate in situ environmental drivers of N cycling with distinct functional guilds; (2) determine the guild response to variation in key ecosystem drivers; and (3) develop a dynamic ecosystem model of the microbial N cycle with the Riverton subsurface using community genomic and biogeochemical data collected in the first two objectives. Over the course of this project, we employed both 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and genome-resolved metagenomics to examine the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic potential of subsurface nitrifier communities within 68 samples collected across multiple sites, depths, and time points within the Riverton floodplain, allowing for both spatial and temporal investigations at different scales. This project benefitted tremendously from recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with dramatic improvements in the computational tools and algorithms available for analyzing such large, complex genomic datasets. By pairing these cutting-edge genomic approaches with depth-resolved sampling and detailed geochemical analyses of the Riverton floodplain, we have gained novel insights into the structure and function of subsurface nitrifier communities in relation to both hydrology and biogeochemistry. This project resulted in the most detailed and comprehensive characterization of N-cycling floodplain microbial communities to date and will hopefully inspire and pave the way for future studies using similar approaches in other floodplains. Indeed, such information is critical for understanding subsurface biogeochemical cycling and how elemental stores are altered from perturbations initiated by the water cycle within floodplains. Finally, because of the terrestrial-aquatic nature of the Riverton floodplain, results from this project are also of relevance to disciplines such as soil science, estuarine science, limnology & oceanography, biogeochemistry, geobiology, environmental engineering, as well as genomics and data science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hidden Features: How Subsurface and Landscape Heterogeneity Govern Hydrologic Connectivity and Stream Chemistry in a Montane Watershed

ABSTRACT Hydrologic connectivity is defined as the connection among stores of water within a watershed and controls the flux of water and solutes from the subsurface to the stream. Hydrologic connectivity is difficult to quantify because it is goverened by heterogeniety in subsurface storage and permeability and responds to seasonal changes in precipitation inputs and subsurface moisture conditions. How interannual climate variability impacts hydrologic connectivity, and thus stream flow generation and chemistry, remains unclear. Using a rare, four‐year synoptic stream chemistry dataset, we evaluated shifts in stream chemistry and stream flow source of Coal Creek, a montane, headwater tributary of the Upper Colorado River. We leveraged compositional principal component analysis and end‐member mixing to evaluate how seasonal and interannual variation in subsurface moisture conditions impacts stream chemistry. Overall, three main findings emerged from this work. First, three geochemically distinct end members were identified that constrained stream flow chemistry: reach inflows, and quick and slow flow groundwater contributions. Reach inflows were impacted by historic base and precious metal mine inputs. Bedrock fractures facilitated much of the transport of quick flow groundwater and higher‐storage subsurface features (e.g., alluvial fans) facilitated the transport of slow flow groundwater. Second, the contributions of different end members to the stream changed over the summer. In early summer, stream flow was composed of all three end members, while in late summer, it was composed predominantly of reach inflows and slow flow groundwater. Finally, we observed minimal differences in proportional composition in stream chemistry across all four years, indicating seasonal variability in subsurface moisture and spatial heterogeneity in landscape and geologic features had a greater influence than interannual climate fluctuation on hydrologic connectivity and stream water chemistry. These findings indicate that mechanisms controlling solute transport (e.g., hydrologic connectivity and flow path activation) may be resilient (i.e., able to rebound after perturbations) to predicted increases in climate variability. By establishing a framework for assessing compositional stream chemistry across variable hydrologic and subsurface moisture conditions, our study offers a method to evaluate watershed biogeochemical resilience to variations in hydrometeorological conditions.

Johnson, Keira [College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmos↗

A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling

Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies

Chen, Hang↗

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗

Methods for Delivery and Distribution of Amendments for Subsurface Remediation: A Critical Review

The ability to reliably deliver and widely distribute remedial amendments through the subsurface environment is of paramount importance to achieve clean-up objectives for contaminated sediments and groundwater for protection of sensitive environmental habitats and natural resources. A wide range of amendment types, delivery techniques, and subsurface access methods are available. However, the applicability of these approaches is dependent on a multitude of site-specific factors and conditions. In this review, an overview of amendment types (i.e., liquid, gas, and solids) and access/distribution methods is provided, along with discussion of the maturity level (low, medium, or high), advantages, and limitations that relate to the potential effectiveness of each approach in the context of site-specific factors (subsurface geology, geochemistry, contaminant properties, etc.). Each amendment type and delivery approach are further evaluated for applicability to the following subsurface target zones: saturated, unsaturated, and perched water, with specific focus on high and low permeability variants of each zone. The review highlights a critical need for field-tested approaches targeting unsaturated and perched water zones, as well as low-permeability regions within all subsurface regions. The intent of this review is to provide critical information and insight into how amendments can be delivered, emplaced, and/or distributed effectively in the subsurface environment to effectively manage subsurface contamination.

Muller, Katherine A.↗

A global comparison of surface and subsurface microbiomes reveals large-scale biodiversity gradients, and a marine-terrestrial divide

Subsurface environments are among Earth’s largest habitats for microbial life. Yet, until recently, we lacked adequate data to accurately differentiate between globally distributed marine and terrestrial surface and subsurface microbiomes. Here, we analyzed 478 archaeal and 964 bacterial metabarcoding datasets and 147 metagenomes from diverse and widely distributed environments. Microbial diversity is similar in marine and terrestrial microbiomes at local to global scales. However, community composition greatly differs between sea and land, corroborating a phylogenetic divide that mirrors patterns in plant and animal diversity. In contrast, community composition overlaps between surface to subsurface environments supporting a diversity continuum rather than a discrete subsurface biosphere. Differences in microbial life thus seem greater between land and sea than between surface and subsurface. Diversity of terrestrial microbiomes decreases with depth, while marine subsurface diversity and phylogenetic distance to cultured isolates rivals or exceeds that of surface environments. We identify distinct microbial community compositions but similar microbial diversity for Earth’s subsurface and surface environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subsurface Characterization of Hydraulic Fracture Test Site-2 (HFTS-2), Delaware Basin

Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site-2 (HFTS-2) is a field-based research experiment performed in the Wolfcamp Formation of the Permian (Delaware) Basin. This paper focuses on integration, advanced geological characterization, and 3D subsurface modeling of the comprehensive HFTS-2 dataset. The study showcases a multidisciplinary reservoir characterization approach that incorporates geology, petrophysics, geochemistry, geomechanics, microseismic, and subsurface engineering analysis. Subsurface characterization of organic-rich mudstone formations requires understanding complex hydraulic fracture network growth in relation to inherent lithology, geomechanical properties, and interaction with pre-existing natural fractures. This paper presents a characterization workflow incorporating pre- and post-stimulation subsurface data, unique to the HFTS-2 dataset. The study integrated: (1) rock properties from logs, cores, and thin sections; (2) natural and hydraulic fracture descriptions from cores and image logs; (3) local and regional stresses; (4) geomechanics; (5) microseismic; (6) fiber optic (FO) and bottomhole pressure gauge (BHPG) response; and (7) produced fluids analysis. During a stimulation treatment, creation of the stimulated rock volume (SRV) is influenced by several subsurface factors. Key contributing factors include structural context, stress conditions, lithology, facies architecture, pre-existing natural fractures, and geomechanical properties. The HFTS-2 subsurface data integration indicates that the SRV is comprised of a complex juxtaposition of hydraulic fracture swarms, as evidenced by image logs analysis, core description, and microseismic monitoring. The HFTS-2 microseismic event density was used to generate 3D heat maps that serve as a representative SRV footprint, corroborated by secondary datasets. These maps were further integrated with petrophysical and geomechanical characteristics, as well as responses from FO and BHPG, to estimate the lateral and vertical dimensions of the effective fractures. The geological characterization for the HFTS-2 dataset combined with 3D modeling for petrophysical and geomechanical properties provides a strong foundation for subsurface simulation and optimization studies. Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/1-21URTC/D011S005R001/2477501/urtec-2021-5243-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5243 The workflow improved our understanding of HFTS-2 hydraulic fracture propagation and characteristics in relation to offset pressure depletion and interaction with pre-existing natural fractures. Analysis showed that fracture geometry varies by stage and by well, and a complex fracture network is generated with varying fracture density. The multidisciplinary workflow presented herein for integration and characterization serves as a foundation to evaluate completion efficiency and estimate areal and vertical stimulation and depletion extent for the project. Furthermore, the workflow and learnings can also be transferred to other unconventional plays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Learning At Depth: Estimating subsurface parameters from geophysical monitoring data

Geophysical imaging techniques are a non-invasive way to image the subsurface and understand both subsurface solid (rock/soil) and fluid property distributions and their evolution in time. Inversions of the geophysical data, such as Electrical Resistance Tomography (ERT) data, are solved to estimate the subsurface property distributions, such as conductivity, and many inversion techniques smooth out sharp gradients in rock or fluid property distributions. Sharp gradients in subsurface properties tend to be present in situations with complex subsurface structures, which are common in many subsurface applications. We have successfully demonstrated that it is possible to inform, or constrain, inversions with neural networks trained on synthetic data with complex subsurface structures. Initial results suggest this process may be optimizable to yield property distributions that better represent the true property distributions than the same inversion process without the neural network constraint. Future work would optimize the neural network performance for this application and then apply the synthetic-data trained neural network to real data to understand the utility and performance of this technique for real data sets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗