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At least 37 records · Page 2

Quantifying model structural error: Efficient Bayesian calibration of a regional groundwater flow model using surrogates and a data-driven error model

Groundwater model structural error is ubiquitous, due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of real aquifer systems. During model calibration, the basic hydrogeological parameters may be adjusted to compensate for structural error. This may result in biased predictions when such calibrated models are used to forecast aquifer responses to new forcing. Here, we investigate the impact of model structural error on calibration and prediction of a real-world groundwater flow model, using a Bayesian method with a data-driven error model to explicitly account for model structural error. The error-explicit Bayesian method jointly infers model parameters and structural error and thereby reduces parameter compensation. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models (based on machine learning techniques) as a substitute for the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate that with explicit treatment of model structural error, the Bayesian method yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived using classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. We also found that the error-explicit Bayesian method gives signficantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals. Finally, through variance decomposition, we provide a comprehensive assessment of prediction uncertainty contributed from parameter, model structure, and measurement uncertainty. The results suggest that the error-explicit Bayesian approach provides a solution to real-world modeling applications for which data support the presence of model structural error, yet model deficiency cannot be specifically identified or corrected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century

With global carbon budget targets looming, residential buildings in top economies must become carbon neutral as soon as possible to reserve more emission space for emerging carbon-emitting economies. This study is the first to compare the operational decarbonization process of China’s and the United States (US) residential buildings from 2000 to 2060 by combining the end-use emission model with the decomposing structural decomposition (DSD) method and Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that from 2001 to 2020 China decarbonized 1544 mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO 2 ) and the US decarbonized 1848 MtCO 2 . In the business-as-usual scenario, China will hit its emission peak in 2031 (±3) with 934 (±61) MtCO 2 , while the US will maintain a lock-in level of 736 (±133) MtCO 2 since the 2030s. In the decarbonization scenario, operational carbon neutrality for residential buildings in 2060 is promoted by an increase in clean power generation proportion, building-integrated power generation level, building electrification level, and a reduction in end-use energy intensity, which will contribute 34.4 %, 21.4 %, 14.3 %, and 29.9 % in China and 32.9 %, 33.1 %, 8.2 %, and 25.8 % in the US, respectively. Especially, building-integrated power generation in China only costs about 40 % of what it costs in the US. Besides, high-decarbonization strategies for residential building operations are proposed as references for governments to formulate targeted climate policies. Overall, this study offers data benchmarks for buildings’ carbon neutrality of top economies to further promote synergistic carbon neutrality with the buildings of emerging economies in the age of Post COP27.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamic analysis of fully constrained Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for automated prefabricated component installation

This paper presents a dynamic analysis and validation framework to assess a fully constrained six-anchor Cable-Driven Parallel Robot (CDPR) for automated installation of prefabricated facade components. Compared with conventional eight-anchor systems, the six-anchor configuration simplifies setup and reduces cost, but it also reduces control authority, shrinks the wrench-feasible workspace, and tightens orientation limits. Consequently, it is unclear a priori whether dynamically feasible trajectories exist to move the end effector from pickup to the facade. A constrained trajectory optimization is formulated to enforce the system dynamics, cable-tension bounds, and pose/velocity limits, and the framework is evaluated in simulation at three levels: (i) an idealized reference model, (ii) a lab-scale prototype model incorporating measured anchor misalignments and identified damping, and (iii) a full-scale three-story building model with load decomposition for structural feasibility checks. Across these scenarios, the analysis shows that optimal, constraint-satisfying trajectories exist that move the end effector from pickup to installation while maintaining a near-plumb, level orientation at the final pose. Collectively, this multi-scale dynamic analysis and validation framework supports the deployment readiness of the six-anchor CDPR and provides a prototype-based sensitivity case study of how measured anchor placement deviations affect feasibility.

CDPR↗

An investigation of the use of temporal decomposition in space mission scheduling

This research involves an examination of techniques for solving scheduling problems in long-duration space missions. The mission timeline is broken up into several time segments, which are then scheduled incrementally. Three methods are presented for identifying the activities that are to be attempted within these segments. The first method is a mathematical model, which is presented primarily to illustrate the structure of the temporal decomposition problem. Since the mathematical model is bound to be computationally prohibitive for realistic problems, two heuristic assignment procedures are also presented. The first heuristic method is based on dispatching rules for activity selection, and the second heuristic assigns performances of a model evenly over timeline segments. These heuristics are tested using a sample Space Station mission and a Spacelab mission. The results are compared with those obtained by scheduling the missions without any problem decomposition. The applicability of this approach to large-scale mission scheduling problems is also discussed.

Bullington, Stanley E.↗

Wind Farm Flow Modeling using an Input-Output Reduced-Order Model

Wind turbines in a wind farm operate individually to maximize their own power regardless of the impact of aerodynamic interactions on neighboring turbines. There is the potential to increase power and reduce overall structural loads by properly coordinating turbines. To perform control design and analysis, a model needs to be of low computational cost, but retains the necessary dynamics seen in high-fidelity models. The objective of this work is to obtain a reduced-order model that represents the full-order flow computed using a high-fidelity model. A variety of methods, including proper orthogonal decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition, can be used to extract the dominant flow structures and obtain a reduced-order model. In this paper, we combine proper orthogonal decomposition with a system identification technique to produce an input-output reduced-order model. This technique is used to construct a reduced-order model of the flow within a two-turbine array computed using a large-eddy simulation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Block-Structured Operator Inference for Coupled Multiphysics Model Reduction

This work presents a block-structured formulation of Operator Inference as a way to learn structured reduced-order models for multiphysics systems. The approach specifies the governing equation structure for each physics component and the structure of the coupling terms. Once the multiphysics structure is specified, the reduced-order model is learned from snapshot data following the nonintrusive Operator Inference methodology. In addition to preserving physical system structure, which in turn permits preservation of system properties such as stability and second-order structure, the block-structured approach has the advantages of reducing the overall dimensionality of the learning problem and admitting tailored regularization for each physics component. The numerical advantages of the block-structured formulation over a monolithic Operator Inference formulation are demonstrated for aeroelastic analysis, which couples aerodynamic and structural models. For the benchmark test case of the AGARD 445.6 wing, block-structured Operator Inference provides an average 20% online prediction speedup over monolithic Operator Inference across subsonic and supersonic flow conditions in both the stable and fluttering parameter regimes while preserving the accuracy achieved with monolithic Operator Inference.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of the SparTen High Performance Sparse Tensor Decomposition Software (Extended Analysis)

Tensor decomposition models play an increasingly important role in modern data science applications. One problem of particular interest is fitting a low-rank Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition model when the tensor has sparse structure and the tensor elements are nonnegative count data. SparTen is a high-performance C++ library which computes a low-rank decomposition using different solvers: a first-order quasi-Newton or a second-order damped Newton method, along with the appropriate choice of runtime parameters. Since default parameters in SparTen are tuned to experimental results in prior published work on a single real-world dataset conducted using MATLAB implementations of these methods, it remains unclear if the parameter defaults in SparTen are appropriate for general tensor data. Furthermore, it is unknown how sensitive algorithm convergence is to changes in the input parameter values. This report addresses these unresolved issues with large-scale experimentation on three benchmark tensor data sets. Experiments were conducted on several different CPU architectures and replicated with many initial states to establish generalized profiles of algorithm convergence behavior.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation

Abstract Current biogeochemical models produce carbon–climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first‐order or Michaelis–Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high‐quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics‐function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Belowground impacts of perennial grass cultivation for sustainable biofuel feedstock production in the tropics

Abstract Perennial grasses can sequester soil organic carbon ( SOC ) in sustainably managed biofuel systems, directly mitigating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations while simultaneously generating biomass for renewable energy. The objective of this study was to quantify SOC accumulation and identify the primary drivers of belowground C dynamics in a zero‐tillage production system of tropical perennial C4 grasses grown for biofuel feedstock in Hawaii. Specifically, the quantity, quality, and fate of soil C inputs were determined for eight grass accessions – four varieties each of napier grass and guinea grass. Carbon fluxes (soil CO 2 efflux, aboveground net primary productivity, litterfall, total belowground carbon flux, root decay constant), C pools ( SOC pool and root biomass), and C quality (root chemistry, C and nitrogen concentrations, and ratios) were measured through three harvest cycles following conversion of a fallow field to cultivated perennial grasses. A wide range of SOC accumulation occurred, with both significant species and accession effects. Aboveground biomass yield was greater, and root lignin concentration was lower for napier grass than guinea grass. Structural equation modeling revealed that root lignin concentration was the most important driver of SOC pool: varieties with low root lignin concentration, which was significantly related to rapid root decomposition, accumulated the greatest amount of SOC . Roots with low lignin concentration decomposed rapidly, but the residue and associated microbial biomass/by‐products accumulated as SOC . In general, napier grass was better suited for promoting soil C sequestration in this system. Further, high‐yielding varieties with low root lignin concentration provided the greatest climate change mitigation potential in a ratoon system. Understanding the factors affecting SOC accumulation and the net greenhouse gas trade‐offs within a biofuel production system will aid in crop selection to meet multiple goals toward environmental and economic sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Application of Lanczos vectors to control design of flexible structures

This report covers research conducted during the first year of the two-year grant. The research, entitled 'Application of Lanczos Vectors to Control Design of Flexible Structures' concerns various ways to obtain reduced-order mathematical models for use in dynamic response analyses and in control design studies. This report summarizes research described in several reports and papers that were written under this contract. Extended abstracts are presented for technical papers covering the following topics: controller reduction by preserving impulse response energy; substructuring decomposition and controller synthesis; model reduction methods for structural control design; and recent literature on structural modeling, identification, and analysis.

Craig, Roy R., Jr.↗

Thermodynamic re-modelling of the Cu–Nb–Sn system: Integrating the nausite phase

Currently available Cu–Nb–Sn phase diagrams lack the recently discovered nausite phase (Cu,Nb)Sn 2 , which is an important intermediate in the course of thermal processing of superconducting Nb 3 Sn wires. Processing decisively determines the resulting microstructure of Nb 3 Sn and, thus, its superconducting properties. Lack of suitable and complete phase diagrams, however, obstructs rational design of such thermal processing procedures. To close this gap and to obtain valid knowledge of homogeneity and stability range of nausite, various Cu–Nb–Sn samples, which are heat-treated between 300 °C and 500 °C, are investigated. By means of energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), a temperature-dependent homogeneity range of nausite is observed, which covers average mole fractions of Cu between 0.09 and 0.15. This is correlated with a change in the mean atomic volume and can be seen in the lattice parameters determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Additionally performed first-principles calculations on different CuSn 2 and NbSn 2 model structures confirm this trend. Furthermore, the peritectic decomposition of nausite to NbSn 2 and liquid at 586 °C is determined by means of in situ XRD and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). By using the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHase Diagrams) approach, all these findings are used to extend a previous thermodynamic description of the Cu–Nb–Sn system by including the nausite as an additional phase. Finally, with this noteworthy integration, the updated modelling of the Cu–Nb–Sn system can be used for optimizing the multistage heat-treatment steps during processing superconducting Nb 3 Sn wires.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Re-engineering the mission life cycle with ABC and IDEF

The theory behind re-engineering a business process is to remove the non-value added activities thereby lowering the process cost. In order to achieve this, one must be able to identify where the non-value added elements are located which is not a trivial task. This is because the non-value added elements are often hidden in the form of overhead and/or pooled resources. In order to be able to isolate these non-value added processes from among the other processes, one must first decompose the overall top level process into lower layers of sub-processes. In addition, costing data must be assigned to each sub-process along with the value the sub-process adds towards the final product. IDEF0 is a Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) process-modeling tool that allows for this functional decomposition through structured analysis. In addition, it illustrates the relationship of the process and the value added to the product or service. The value added portion is further defined in IDEF1X which is an entity relationship diagramming tool. The entity relationship model is the blueprint of the product as it moves along the 'assembly line' and therefore relates all of the parts to each other and the final product. It also relates the parts to the tools that produce the product and all of the paper work that is used in their acquisition. The use of IDEF therefore facilitates the use of Activity Based Costing (ABC). ABC is an essential method in a high variety, product-customizing environment, to facilitate rapid response to externally caused change. This paper describes the work being done in the Mission Operations Division to re-engineer the development and operation life cycle of Mission Operations Centers using these tools.

Mandl, Daniel↗

Detailed modeling of hydrogen release and particle shrinkage during pyrolysis of inhomogeneous wood

Hydrogen release during pyrolysis of woody biomass is studied considering anisotropicity and inhomogeneity of wood structure. A new anisotropic shrinkage model is proposed based on the decomposition of main wood constituents, i.e., cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin. The new shrinkage model can predict the temporal evolution of the wood structure, and the differences between axial and radial shrinkage during pyrolysis. The model agrees very well with several experimental data from the literature. Based on particle temperature during conversion, the pyrolysis is partitioned into four stages, and the hydrogen release and H 2 formation from each stage are investigated. Stage (IV) of pyrolysis, from 1000 to 1273 K, is found to be efficient for H 2 production owing to the production of considerable mass of H with a minimal amount of tar species. Furthermore, the char quality is found to be different at the end of stages (II), (III), and (IV), where around 67.7, 80.5, and 93.4% wt. of solid residue is made of carbon, respectively. The model is also used to explain how the heating rate affects the temperature distribution inside the particle and how it shifts the peak of hydrogen release. Finally, the pyrolysis of two inhomogeneous wood samples — a beech twig with bark and a beech dowel with growth rings — are investigated. The bark can affect the pyrolysis rate, products, and flow pattern inside the particle. The growth rings do not have a considerable effect on the pyrolysis rate and products, but they have a significant impact on the flow pattern. This has an important implication for char conversion studies where the internal surface area and porosity field distribution have a significant effect on the gasification and oxidation rates.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Electromagnetic Energy-Assisted Thermal Conversion of Fossil-Based Hydrocarbons to Low-Cost Hydrogen

The goal of this project was to develop and optimize catalysts for methane decomposition, particularly focusing on regeneration via an electromagnetic energy-assisted mechanism, to produce hydrogen more cost-effectively compared to electrolysis routes. To achieve this goal, the project pursued several key objectives. The project began with the preparation and testing of various catalysts. A nickel-silica based catalyst was identified as the most promising material for the pyrolysis of methane into carbon and hydrogen. Kinetic parameters for methane decomposition were determined, aiding in computational modeling efforts. Structured catalysts were investigated, highlighting the need for frequent cleaning or regeneration to maintain performance, with methane conversion rates exceeding 70% in tube furnace tests. Computational fluid dynamics modeling was employed to optimize reactor designs and electrode angles, leading the project team to propose a multi-compartment thermal conversion system for larger setups. This modeling work was important in understanding reaction characteristics, carbon deposition rates, and temperature profiles under various conditions. A bench-scale reactor system was assembled to evaluate catalyst regeneration using electromagnetic energy-assisted mechanisms. Experiments demonstrated the potential for carbon removal, though further optimization is needed. The carbon produced from the methane conversion process was evaluated for potential use in lithium-ion battery electrodes. The carbon exhibited properties similar to commercially available high-purity multi-walled carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, with a carbon content greater than 95%. Coin cell batteries assembled with this carbon showed that lower replacement levels (10% to 33%) outperformed the control group, improving specific capacity density and stability. However, higher replacement levels (100%) demonstrated poorer performance, suggesting that excessive carbon substitution negatively impacts battery performance. These findings indicate the potential marketability of the produced carbon as a component in lithium-ion batteries, though further testing is necessary to confirm long-term advantages and disadvantages associated with the use of the carbon product. These results however justified further technoeconomic assessments to determine if the process can provide low-cost hydrogen. The economic feasibility and technical performance of methane decomposition for hydrogen production were assessed, focusing on three plant configurations: 100E (electrically heated), 100C (combustion heated using produced hydrogen), and PE-Hybrid (a combination of pyrolysis (indicating decomposition) and electrolysis). The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) for the pyrolysis configurations was found to be approximately 25% lower than that of electrolysis. The 100E configuration had the lowest LCOH at $\$$3.12/kg. Including carbon product sales significantly improved the economics, with the 100C configuration achieving a negative LCOH of -$\$$0.35/kg. The PE-Hybrid configuration was not economically advantageous compared to pure pyrolysis plants due to its complexity and additional equipment requirements. Ultimately, methane pyrolysis presents a viable method for near carbon dioxide-free hydrogen production, with significant economic advantages over electrolysis, especially when considering the sale of carbon byproducts. The 100E and 100C configurations showed the most promise, with the choice between them ultimately depending on the prices of power and natural gas. In conclusion, this technology has the potential to lower hydrogen production costs by leveraging the methane decomposition process with the sale of valuable carbon byproducts. By optimizing catalyst performance and integrating electromagnetic energy-assisted regeneration, the process can achieve higher efficiency and economic viability, making it a competitive alternative to traditional hydrogen production methods.

08 HYDROGEN↗

ICER-3D Hyperspectral Image Compression Software

Software has been developed to implement the ICER-3D algorithm. ICER-3D effects progressive, three-dimensional (3D), wavelet-based compression of hyperspectral images. If a compressed data stream is truncated, the progressive nature of the algorithm enables reconstruction of hyperspectral data at fidelity commensurate with the given data volume. The ICER-3D software is capable of providing either lossless or lossy compression, and incorporates an error-containment scheme to limit the effects of data loss during transmission. The compression algorithm, which was derived from the ICER image compression algorithm, includes wavelet-transform, context-modeling, and entropy coding subalgorithms. The 3D wavelet decomposition structure used by ICER-3D exploits correlations in all three dimensions of sets of hyperspectral image data, while facilitating elimination of spectral ringing artifacts, using a technique summarized in "Improving 3D Wavelet-Based Compression of Spectral Images" (NPO-41381), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 3 (March 2009), page 7a. Correlation is further exploited by a context-modeling subalgorithm, which exploits spectral dependencies in the wavelet-transformed hyperspectral data, using an algorithm that is summarized in "Context Modeler for Wavelet Compression of Hyperspectral Images" (NPO-43239), which follows this article. An important feature of ICER-3D is a scheme for limiting the adverse effects of loss of data during transmission. In this scheme, as in the similar scheme used by ICER, the spatial-frequency domain is partitioned into rectangular error-containment regions. In ICER-3D, the partitions extend through all the wavelength bands. The data in each partition are compressed independently of those in the other partitions, so that loss or corruption of data from any partition does not affect the other partitions. Furthermore, because compression is progressive within each partition, when data are lost, any data from that partition received prior to the loss can be used to reconstruct that partition at lower fidelity. By virtue of the compression improvement it achieves relative to previous means of onboard data compression, this software enables (1) increased return of hyperspectral scientific data in the presence of limits on the rates of transmission of data from spacecraft to Earth via radio communication links and/or (2) reduction in spacecraft radio-communication power and/or cost through reduction in the amounts of data required to be downlinked and stored onboard prior to downlink. The software is also suitable for compressing hyperspectral images for ground storage or archival purposes.

Xie, Hua↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Impacts: Modeling and Observations

This document covers the following topics: Cratering on Titan: Projectiles, Craters and Impact Melt; The Cratering Database: Making Code Jockeys Honest; Popigai Impact Structure Modeling: Morphology and Worldwide Ejecta; Anhydrite EOS and Phase Diagram in Relation to Shock Decomposition; Computational Investigations of the Chesapeake Bay Impact Structure; Hydrocode Simulations of the Chesapeake Bay Impact; Lockne Crater as a Result of Oblique Impact; The Influence of a Deep Shelf Sea on the Excavation and Modification of a Marine-Target Crater, the Lockne Crater, Central Sweden; Pre-Drilling Investigation of the Lake Bosumtwi Impact Crater: Constraints from Geophysics and Numerical Modelling; Central Uplift Formation at the Middlesboro Impact Structure, Kentucky, USA; A SRTM Investigation of Serra da Cangalho Impact Structure, Brazil; Brazilian Impact Craters: A Review; Flynn Creek Impact Structure: New Insights from Breccias, Melt Features, Shatter Cones, and Remote Sensing; The Howell Structure, Lincoln County, Tennessee: A Review of Past and Current Research; After the Chicxulub Impact: Control on Depositional and Diagenetic History of the Cenozoic Carbonate Formations of the Northwestern Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico; Ni Contents by Non-Destructive In-Situ XRF Method of Takamatsu-Kagawa Crater District in Japan; and Akiyoshi Limestone Blocks Transported by the P/T Boundary Event to Japan Islands.

Source record↗

Identification of multi-modal plasma responses to applied magnetic perturbations using the plasma reluctance

Using the plasma reluctance, the Ideal Perturbed Equilibrium Code is able to efficiently identify the structure of multi-modal magnetic plasma response measurements and the corresponding impact on plasma performance in the DIII-D tokamak. Recent experiments demonstrated that multiple kink modes of comparable amplitudes can be driven by applied nonaxisymmetric fields with toroidal mode number n = 2. This multi-modal response is in good agreement with ideal magnetohydrodynamic models, but detailed decompositions presented here show that the mode structures are not fully described by either the least stable modes or the resonant plasma response. This paper identifies the measured response fields as the first eigenmodes of the plasma reluctance, enabling clear diagnosis of the plasma modes and their impact on performance from external sensors. The reluctance shows, for example, how very stable modes compose a significant portion of the multi-modal plasma response field and that these stable modes drive significant resonant current. Finally, this work is an overview of the first experimental applications using the reluctance to interpret the measured response and relate it to multifaceted physics, aimed towards providing the foundation of understanding needed to optimize nonaxisymmetric fields for independent control of stability and transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fourier imaging of non-linear structure formation

We perform a Fourier space decomposition of the dynamics of non-linear cosmological structure formation in ΛCDM models. From N -body simulations involving only cold dark matter we calculate 3-dimensional non-linear density, velocity divergence and vorticity Fourier realizations, and use these to calculate the fully non-linear mode coupling integrals in the corresponding fluid equations. Our approach allows for a reconstruction of the amount of mode coupling between any two wavenumbers as a function of redshift. With our Fourier decomposition method we identify the transfer of power from larger to smaller scales, the stable clustering regime, the scale where vorticity becomes important, and the suppression of the non-linear divergence power spectrum as compared to linear theory. Our results can be used to improve and calibrate semi-analytical structure formation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗