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NASA NTRS1999

Measurements of Active-Region Global Nonpotentiality for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

We introduce two quantitative measures of the global nonpotentiality of predominantly bipolar active regions and explore their usefulness as indicators of whether an active region is likely to produce coronal mass ejections. The two measures, length of strong-field strong-shear main neutral line (L (sub ss)) and global net current (I (sub N)), are obtained directly from vector magnetograms of the regions. From Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograms and Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope coronal X-ray images of four active regions, we find that (1) L (sub ss) and I (sub N) are each a useful indicator of an active region's likely CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) productivity, (2) L (sub ss) and I (sub N) may be more reliable predictors of the CME productivity of active regions than is the presence or absence of sigmoidal structure in X-ray images of the regions, and (3) L (sub ss) and I (sub N) may have threshold values above which CME production is likely and below which CME production is unlikely.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Prospective Method for Predicting Coronal Mass Ejections From Vector Magnetograms

Two quantitative measures of the global nonpotentiality of predominantly bipolar active regions are explored for their usefulness as indicators of whether an active region is likely to produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The two measures, length of strong-field strong-shear main neutral line (Lss) and global net current (IN), are obtained directly from vector magnetograms of the regions. From measurements of Lss and IN in four active regions for which the global nonpotentiality and CME productivity are assessed independently of Lss and IN, it appears that Lss and IN are each a useful indicator of an active region's likely CME productivity. The results also suggest that Lss and IN may be more reliable predictors of the CME productivity of active regions than is the presence or absence of sigmoidal structure in coronal X-ray images of the regions and that there might be threshold values of Lss and IN above which CME production is likely and below which CME production is unlikely. While these results need to be certified by an expansion of this pilot study to more active regions, they show the promise of Lss and IN as quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality for CME prediction.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Correlation of the CME Productivity of Solar Active Regions with Measures of their Global Nonpotentiality from Vector Magnetograms: Baseline Results

From conventional magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal images, it is known qualitatively that the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic explosions from sunspot active regions in which the magnetic field is globally strongly sheared and twisted from its minimum-energy potential configuration. In this paper, we present measurements from active-region vector magnetograms that begin to quantify the dependence of the CME productivity of an active region on the global nonpotentiality of its magnetic field. From each of 17 magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we obtain a measure of the size of the active region (the magnetic flux content, phi) and three different measures of the global nonpotentiality (L(sub SS), the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line; I(sub N), the net electric current arching from one polarity to the other; and alpha = muI(subN/phi), a flux-normalized measure of the field twist).

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Correlation of the Coronal Mass Ejection Productivity of Solar Active Regions with Measures of their Global Nonpotentiality from Vector Magnetograms: Baseline Results

Conventional magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal images show qualitatively that the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic explosions from sunspot active regions where the magnetic field is globally strongly sheared and twisted from its minimum-energy potential configuration. We present measurements from active region vector magnetograms that start to quantify the dependence of an active region's CME productivity on the global nonpotentiality of its magnetic field. From each of 17 magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we measured the size of the active region (the magnetic flux content, phi) and three separate measures of the global nonpotentiality (L(sub SS), the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line: I(sub N), the net electric current connecting one polarity to the other; and alpha = (mu)I(sub N)/phi), a flux normalized measure of the field twist). From these measurements and the observed CME productivity of the active regions, we find that: (1) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are statistically correlated with the active region flux content and with each other; (2) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are significantly correlated with CME productivity. The flux content correlates with CME productivity, but at a lower statistically significant confidence level (less than 95%); (3) The net current is less closely correlated with CME productivity than alpha and the correlation of CME productivity with flux content is even weaker. If these differences in correlation strength, and a significant correlation of alpha with flux content, persist to larger active regions, this would imply that the size of active regions does not affect CME productivity except through global nonpotentiality; and (4) For each of the four global magnetic quantities, the correlation with CME productivity is stronger for a two-day time window for the CME production than for windows half as wide or twice as wide. This plausibly is a result of the most counterproductive active regions producing less than one CME per day, and from the active region's evolution often significantly changing the global nonpotentiality over the course of several days. These results establish that measures of active region global nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms (such as L(sub SS), I(sub N), and alpha) should be useful for prediction a active region CMEs.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

Identification of active regions from which Earthward halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are likely to originate is important both for understanding how CMEs are produced and for prediction of hazardous space weather. In previous work, from a set of 17 MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions situated within +/- 2 days of rotation from central meridian, we have evaluated four different measures of the global nonpotentiality of the magnetic field of each active region, and have found that the nonpotentiality of these active regions is strongly correlated with their CME productivity during the time interval of +/- 2 days centered on the day of the magnetogram: strongly nonpotential bipolar active regions are much more likely to produce a CME during this interval that are weakly nonpotential bipolar active regions. To further establish the use of active-region nonpotentiality for forecasting CMEs, we have expanded the sample to 19 additional bipolar active regions, with vector magnetograms taken with the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograph from September 2000 through June 2001 with support from our LWS grant (M. J. Hagyard, PI). The four global measures of nonpotentiality are the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line, the net current, and two other measures of the overall twist in the magnetic field of the active-region bipole. We find: 1) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity within +/- 2 days of the day of the magnetogram is greater than 99%. 2) 67% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the +/- 2 day window, while only 17% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 3) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity during 0-2 days after the day of the magnetogram is about 97%. 4) 42% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the 0-2 day window, while only 10% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 5) The four different measures of an active region's nonpotentiality agree most of the time in their classification of the nonpotentiality as strong or weak (75%-90% depending on the pair of measurements). Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Initiation of Coronal Mass Ejections

This paper is a synopsis of the initiation of the strong-field magnetic explosions that produce large, fast coronal mass ejections. Cartoons based on observations are used to describe the inferred basic physical processes and sequences that trigger and drive the explosion. The magnetic field that explodes is a sheared-core bipole that may or may not be embedded in surrounding strong magnetic field, and may or may not contain a flux rope before it starts to explode. We describe three different mechanisms that singly or in combination trigger the explosion: (1) runaway internal tether-cutting reconnection, (2) runaway external tether-cutting reconnection, and (3) ideal MHD instability or loss or equilibrium. For most eruptions, high-resolution, high-cadence magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal movies (such as from TRACE and/or Solar-B) of the pre-eruption region and of the onset of the eruption and flare are needed to tell which one or which combination of these mechanisms is the trigger. Whatever the trigger, it leads to the production of an erupting flux rope. Using a simple model flux rope, we demonstrate that the explosion can be driven by the magnetic pressure of the expanding flux rope, provided the shape of the expansion is "fat" enough.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Getting a Kick Out of Numerical Relativity

Operating ground-based gravitational wave detectors and a planned instrument in space are bringing about the new field of gravitational wave astronomy. A prime source for any of these observatories is the merger of a system of two black holes. Brought together by copious losses of gravitational-wave energy, these systems merge in a burst of energy with a peak power exceeding any electromagnetic source. Observations of these sources will generate a wealth of astrophysical information, and may provide an unparalleled probe of strong-field gravitational physics, but a full interpretation of the observations will require detailed predictions from General Relativity. I will discuss recent advances in numerical simulations of binary black hole systems which are generating dramatic progress in understanding binary black hole mergers. Recent achievements include the first simulations of binary black hole systems through several orbits and merger, leading to detailed predictions for the final portion of the gravitational radiation waveforms from equal-mass mergers. For unequal-mass mergers, it has recently become possible to measure the impulsive kick imparted to the final black hole, by the asymmetry of the merger radiation. These first results announce an accelerating wave of progress soon to come from the energetic field of numerical relativity.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Modelling Gravitational Radiation from Binary Black Holes

The final merger and coalescence of binary black holes is a key source of strong gravitational waves for the LISA mission. Observing these systems will allow us to probe the formation of cosmic structure to high redshifts and test general relativity directly in the strong-field, dynamical regime. Recently, major breakthroughs have been made in modeling black hole mergers using numerical relativity. This talk will survey these exciting developments, focusing on the gravitational waveforms and the recoil kicks produced from non-equal mass mergers.

Centrella, Joan↗

NASA NTRS2006

Binary Black Hole Late Inspiral: Simulations for Gravitational Wave Observations

Coalescing binary black hole mergers are expected to be the strongest gravitational wave sources for ground-based interferometers, such as the LIGO, VIRGO, and GEO600, as well as the spacebased interferometer LISA. Until recently it has been impossible to reliably derive the predictions of General Relativity for the final merger stage, which takes place in the strong-field regime. Recent progress in numerical relativity simulations is, however, revolutionizing our understanding of these systems. We examine here the specific case of merging equal-mass Schwarzschild black holes in detail, presenting new simulations in which the black holes start in the late inspiral stage on orbits with very low eccentricity and evolve for approximately 1200M through approximately 7 orbits before merging. We study the accuracy and consistency of our simulations and the resulting gravitational waveforms, which encompass approximately 14 cycles before merger, and highlight the importance of using frequency (rather than time) to set the physical reference when comparing models. Matching our results to PN calculations for the earlier parts of the inspiral provides a combined waveform with less than half a cycle of accumulated phase error through the entire coalescence. Using this waveform, we calculate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for iLIGO, adLIGO, and LISA, highlighting the contributions from the late-inspiral and merger-ringdown parts of the waveform which can now be simulated numerically. Contour plots of SNR as a function of z and M show that adLIGO can achieve SNR 2 10 for some IMBBHs out to z approximately equals 1, and that LISA can see MBBHs in the range 3 x 10(exp 4) approximately < M/Mo approximately < 10(exp 7) at SNR > 100 out to the earliest epochs of structure formation at z > 15.

Baker, John G.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modeling Flows Around Merging Black Hole Binaries

Coalescing massive black hole binaries are produced by the merger of galaxies. The final stages of the black hole coalescence produce strong gravitational radiation that can be detected by the space-borne LISA. In cases in which the black hole merger takes place in the presence of gas and magnetic fields, various types of electromagnetic signals may also be produced. Modeling such electromagnetic counterparts of the final merger requires evolving the behavior of both gas and fields in the strong-field regions around the black holes. We have taken a first step towards this problem by mapping the flow of pressureless matter in the dynamic, 3-D general relativistic spacetime around the merging black holes. We report on the results of these initial simulations and discuss their likely importance for future hydrodynamical simulations.

Centrella, Joan↗

NASA NTRS2009

Massive Black Hole Mergers: Can we see what LISA will hear?

Coalescing massive black hole binaries are formed when galaxies merge. The final stages of this coalescence produce strong gravitational wave signals that can be detected by the space-borne LISA. When the black holes merge in the presence of gas and magnetic fields, various types of electromagnetic signals may also be produced. Modeling such electromagnetic counterparts requires evolving the behavior of both gas and fields in the strong-field regions around the black holes. We have taken a first step towards this problem by mapping the flow of pressureless matter in the dynamic, 3-D general relativistic spacetime around the merging black holes. We report on the results of these initial simulations and discuss their likely importance for future hydrodynamical simulations.

Centrella, Joan↗

NASA NTRS2010

Gravitational Waves: A New Observational Window

The era of gravitational wave astronomy is rapidly approaching, with a likely start date around the middle of this decade ' Gravitational waves, emitted by accelerated motions of very massive objects, provide detailed information about strong-field gravity and its sources, including black holes and neutron stars, that electromagnetic probes cannot access. In this talk I will discuss the anticipated sources and the status of the extremely sensitive detectors (both ground and space based) that will make gravitational wave detections possible. As ground based detectors are now taking data, I will show some initial science results related to measured upper limits on gravitational wave signals. Finally Z will describe new directions including advanced detectors and joint efforts with other fields of astronomy.

Camp, Jordan B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Massive Black Hole Mergers: Can We "See" what LISA will "Hear"?

The final merger of massive black holes produces strong gravitational radiation that can be detected by the space-borne LISA. If the black hole merger takes place in the presence of gas and magnetic fields, various types of electromagnetic signals may also be produced. Modeling such electromagnetic counterparts of the final merger requires evolving the behavior of both gas and fields in the strong-field regions around the black holes. We will review current efforts to simulate these systems, and discuss possibilities for observing the electromagnetic signals they produce.

Centrella, Joan↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Science with the Square Kilometre Array

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) is the centimeter- and meter-wavelength telescope for the 21st Century. Its Key Science Projects are (a) The end of the Dark Ages, involving searches for an H i signature and the first metalrich systems; (b) Testing theories of gravitation using an array of pulsars to search for gravitational waves and relativistic binaries to probe the strong-field regime; (c) Observations of H i to a redshift z ~ 2 from which to study the evolution of galaxies and dark energy. (d) Astrobiology including planetary formation within protoplanetary disks; and (c) The origin and evolution of cosmic magnetism, both within the Galaxy and in intergalactic space. The SKA will operate over the wavelength range of at least 1.2 cm to 4 m (70 MHz to 25 GHz), providing milliarcsecond resolution at the shortest wavelengths.

cosmic microwave↗

NASA NTRS2011

Testing Gravitational Physics with Space-based Gravitational-wave Observations

Gravitational wave observations provide exceptional and unique opportunities for precision tests of gravitational physics, as predicted by general relativity (GR). Space-based gravitational wave measurements, with high signal-to-noise ratios and large numbers of observed events may provide the best-suited gravitational-wave observations for testing GR with unprecedented precision. These observations will be especially useful in testing the properties of gravitational waves and strong-field aspects of the theory which are less relevant in other observations. We review the proposed GR test based on observations of massive black hole mergers, extreme mass ratio inspirals, and galactic binary systems.

Baker, John G.↗