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NASA NTRS2010

VLBI Analysis with the Multi-Technique Software GEOSAT

GEOSAT is a multi-technique geodetic analysis software developed at Forsvarets Forsknings Institutt (Norwegian defense research establishment). The Norwegian Mapping Authority has now installed the software and has, together with Forsvarets Forsknings Institutt, adapted the software to deliver datum-free normal equation systems in SINEX format. The goal is to be accepted as an IVS Associate Analysis Center and to provide contributions to the IVS EOP combination on a routine basis. GEOSAT is based on an upper diagonal factorized Kalman filter which allows estimation of time variable parameters like the troposphere and clocks as stochastic parameters. The tropospheric delays in various directions are mapped to tropospheric zenith delay using ray-tracing. Meteorological data from ECMWF with a resolution of six hours is used to perform the ray-tracing which depends both on elevation and azimuth. Other models are following the IERS and IVS conventions. The Norwegian Mapping Authority has submitted test SINEX files produced with GEOSAT to IVS. The results have been compared with the existing IVS combined products. In this paper the outcome of these comparisons is presented.

Kierulf, Halfdan Pascal↗

NASA NTRS2009

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic design optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design components of an airframe structure that can be made of metallic and composite materials. The design is obtained as a function of the risk level, or reliability, p. The design method treats uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties as distribution functions, which are defined with mean values and standard deviations. A design constraint or a failure mode is specified as a function of reliability p. Solution to stochastic optimization yields the weight of a structure as a function of reliability p. Optimum weight versus reliability p traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the inverted-S graph corresponded to 50 percent (p = 0.5) probability of success. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponds to unity for reliability p (or p = 1). Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a reliability that approaches zero (p = 0). Reliability can be changed for different components of an airframe structure. For example, the landing gear can be designed for a very high reliability, whereas it can be reduced to a small extent for a raked wingtip. The SDO capability is obtained by combining three codes: (1) The MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, (2) The fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and (3) NASA Glenn Research Center s optimization testbed CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life raked wingtip structure of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Descriptions of the polarization states of vector processes - Applications to ULF magnetic fields

In recent years a wide variety of methods has been used to describe the polarization characteristics of ULF (.001 to 1 Hz) magnetic fields. This paper gives a detailed outline of some of the descriptions derived from the spectral matrices of n-variate stochastic processes. The matrices are expanded in three different, standard sets of matrices in order to add some simplification to the interpretation of the polarizations. One set is composed of n-squared trace-orthogonal, hermitean matrices and leads directly to a generalization of the Stokes parameters and the degree of polarization for n-variate processes. The second set is developed from the dyad expansion, which in particular cases is analogous to the spectral decomposition of the matrix. The third set is composed of n commuting idempotent matrices and proves to be the most useful set when the stochastic process is not strictly polarized.

Samson, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimization Testbed Cometboards Extended into Stochastic Domain

COMparative Evaluation Testbed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for the Design of Structures (CometBoards) is a multidisciplinary design optimization software. It was originally developed for deterministic calculation. It has now been extended into the stochastic domain for structural design problems. For deterministic problems, CometBoards is introduced through its subproblem solution strategy as well as the approximation concept in optimization. In the stochastic domain, a design is formulated as a function of the risk or reliability. Optimum solution including the weight of a structure, is also obtained as a function of reliability. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponded to unity for reliability. Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a compromised reliability approaching zero. The stochastic design optimization (SDO) capability for an industrial problem was obtained by combining three codes: MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life airframe component made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Kinetic Model for Predicting Trace Gas Uptake and Reaction

A model is developed to describe trace gas uptake and reaction with applications to aerosols and microdroplets. Gas uptake by the liquid is formulated as a coupled equilibria that links gas, surface, and bulk regions of the droplet or solution. Previously, this framework was used in explicit stochastic reaction-diffusion simulations to predict the reactive uptake kinetics of ozone with droplets containing aqueous aconitic acid, maleic acid, and sodium nitrite. With the use of prior data and simulation results, a new equation for the uptake coefficient is derived, which accounts for both surface and bulk reactions. Lambert W functions are used to obtain closed form solutions to the integrated rate laws for the multiphase kinetics; similar to previous expressions that describe Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics. Together these equations couple interface and bulk processes over a wide range of conditions and do not require many of the limiting assumptions needed to apply resistor model formulations to explain trace gas uptake and reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1974

On the design of optimal input signals in system identification

The problem of designing optimal inputs in the identification of multi-input multi-output linear systems with unknown time-varying parameters is considered using a Bayesian approach. A sensitivity index gives a measure of performance for the closed-loop system inputs. The computation of the optimal closed-loop mappings is shown to be a nontrivial exercise in stochastic control with no analytic solution, but optimal open-loop and affine laws yield much more tractable problems. For time-invariant systems, the sensitivity index considered is shown to be equivalent to the trace of the (strictly positive definite) information matrix associated with the system. Numerical examples are given. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the parameters. A necessary condition for the Kalman filter not to diverge when applying linear feedback is also given.

Lopez-Toledo, A. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ILEOS: A Novel Intelligent Observing System Enabled by High Altitude Long Endurance Uncrewed Aerial Systems

Most major global satellite surveyors of climate-relevant trace gases have relatively coarse spatial resolution or temporal sampling. While these data can be supplemented by fine-pointing satellites and aircraft, the spatial and temporal resolutions available from crewed aircraft is not sufficient to observe stochastic, ephemeral events that take place between observations. Emerging High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) can operate for months at a time and loiter over targets to provide continuous daylight geostationary-like observations, allowing these new platforms to be integrated with existing satellites as part of a New Observing Strategy (NOS).To aid in the planning of future NOS missions, NASA is developing the Intelligent Long Endurance Observing System (ILEOS), a science activity planning system. ILEOS will help scientists build plans to improve spatio-temporal resolution of climate-relevant gases by fusing coarse-grained sensor data from satellites and other sources(e.g., terrain, forecasts), and plan HALE UAS flights to obtain finer-grain (high spatio-temporal) data. ILEOS will also enable observations for longer periods and of environments not accessible through in-situ observations and crewed aircraft field campaigns.

science planning pipeline↗

NASA NTRS1975

Optimal policies for identification of stochastic linear systems

The problem of designing closed-loop policies for identification of multiinput-multioutput linear discrete-time systems with random time-varying parameters is considered in this paper using a Bayesian approach. A sensitivity index gives a measure of performance for the closed-loop laws. The computation of the optimal laws is shown to be nontrivial, an exercise in stochastic control, but open-loop, affine, and open-loop feedback optimal inputs are shown to yield tractable problems. Numerical examples are given. For time-invariant systems, the criterion considered is shown to be related to the trace of the information matrix associated with the system.

Lopez-Toledo, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Visualizing turbulent mixing of gases and particles

A physical model and interactive computer graphics techniques have been developed for the visualization of the basic physical process of stochastic dispersion and mixing from steady-state CFD calculations. The mixing of massless particles and inertial particles is visualized by transforming the vector field from a traditionally Eulerian reference frame into a Lagrangian reference frame. Groups of particles are traced through the vector field for the mean path as well as their statistical dispersion about the mean position by using added scalar information about the root mean square value of the vector field and its Lagrangian time scale. In this way, clouds of particles in a turbulent environment are traced, not just mean paths. In combustion simulations of many industrial processes, good mixing is required to achieve a sufficient degree of combustion efficiency. The ability to visualize this multiphase mixing can not only help identify poor mixing but also explain the mechanism for poor mixing. The information gained from the visualization can be used to improve the overall combustion efficiency in utility boilers or propulsion devices. We have used this technique to visualize steady-state simulations of the combustion performance in several furnace designs.

Ma, Kwan-Liu↗

NASA NTRS1989

Computer simulation of dust grain evolution

The latest results are reported from a Monte Carlo code that is being developed at NASA Ames. The goal of this program, is to derive from the observed and presumed properties of the interstellar medium (ISM) the following information: (1) the size spectrum of interstellar dust; (2) the chemical structure of interstellar dust; (3) interstellar abundances; and (4) the lifetime of a dust grain in the ISM. Presently this study is restricted to refractory interstellar material, i.e., the formation and destruction of ices are not included in the program. The program is embedded in an analytic solution for the bulk chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium in which stars are born in molecular clouds, but new nucleosynthesis products and stellar return are entered into a complementary intercloud medium. The well-mixed matter of each interstellar phase is repeatedly cycled stochastically through the complementary phase and back. Refractory dust is created by thermal condensation as stellar matter flows away from sites of nucleosynthesis such as novae and supernovae and/or from the matter returned from evolved intermediate stars. The history of each particle is traced by standard Monte Carlo techniques as it is sputtered and fragmented by supernova shock waves in the intercloud medium. It also accretes an amorphous mantle of gaseous refractory atoms when its local medium joins with the molecular cloud medium. Finally it encounters the possibility of astration (destruction by star formation) within the molecular clouds.

Liffman, K.↗

DOE OSTI2026

MHD-induced SOL filaments and divertor heat flux striations in NSTX

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) activity in NSTX has been found to induce striated heat flux patterns at the divertor. These striated heat fluxes were previously interpreted as strike-point splitting caused by stochastic magnetic lobes near the X-point. Recent analysis indicates that MHD can directly generate filaments in the scrape-off layer (SOL), and the MHD-related filaments are consistent with the rotation and the frequency of the MHD. Magnetic field line tracing from the mid-plane of the MHD-related filaments to the divertor is consistent with the location of striated heat fluxes on the divertor. Additionally, gas puff imaging (GPI) diagnostic data shows the generation of regular blobs following each edge harmonic oscillation (EHO) toroidal mode number n = 1 perturbation, which indicates that the MHD perturbation directly drives the blobs. These blobs are responsible for the divertor heat flux striations. Here, this finding provides a new framework for understanding MHD-induced edge transport and has important implications for heat-load control in NSTX-U and future spherical tokamaks.

MHD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Open Quantum Systems Using Hamiltonian Simulations

We present a novel method to simulate the Lindblad equation, drawing on the relationship between Lindblad dynamics, stochastic differential equations, and Hamiltonian simulations. We derive a sequence of unitary dynamics in an enlarged Hilbert space that can approximate the Lindblad dynamics up to an arbitrarily high order. This unitary representation can then be simulated using a quantum circuit that involves only Hamiltonian simulation and tracing out the ancilla qubits. There is no need for additional postselection in measurement outcomes, ensuring a success probability of one at each stage. Our method can be directly generalized to the time-dependent setting. We provide numerical examples that simulate both time-independent and time-dependent Lindbladian dynamics with accuracy up to the third order. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ding, Zhiyan (ORCID:000000018863403X)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Agnostic Bayesian Framework for Online Anomaly/Event Detection in PMU Data

Phasor measurement units (PMU) are integral to the modernization and automation plan of the electric power industry. A PMU data signature contains system-level events (e.g., faults, generation/load change, etc.) and any measurement/device-related errors. Therefore, the reliable and resilient operation of power systems is equivalent to the quality of the PMU data and the situation awareness provided by its data signature. Despite recent progress, current state-of-the-art methods are not fool-proof and have certain limitations tracing an error/abnormality to sensor sub-components and grid systems. This is because of technical challenges imposed by the scarcity of the labeled information, loss of data quality, and non-stationarity of data. In this paper, we consider the online PMU data stream as an output of a stochastic process and pose the anomaly/event detection as a changepoint detection problem dealing with detecting parameter changes in the underlying stochastic processes. The proposed model-agnostic framework relies on: (a) feature extraction utilizing the minimum volume enclosing ellipsoids (MVEE) method from raw PMU observations and (b) a Bayesian framework of changepoint detection. The validity of the proposed methodology is discussed through numerical experiments on real-world utility-scale PMU data.

Hossain, Ramij Raja↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inferences of electrical current delivered to shocked transmission lines

Small radius Bdot measurements of electrical current delivered by pulsed power devices are routinely compromised by electrode/convolute plasmas endemic to multiterawatt transmission lines. Inferences of delivered current unaffected by these issues have recently been obtained by numerically optimizing consistency between model predictions and local experimental velocimetry data, but these are only unique for shockless velocity profiles. In the paper we describe a more general Bayesian method capable of inferring current despite the presence of shocks. Additionally, we describe uncertainty estimates and use of the technique on experimental data. This technique is the first to provide uncertainty estimates on the full current trace delivered to an inertial confinement fusion target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Embedding Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) Modules in SERPENT for Higher Fidelity Advanced Reactor Analysis

When a neutron born in fission thermalizes to the order of $k$ $B$ $T$, it’s de-Broglie wavelength and energy approach the order of inter-atomic spacing and elementary lattice oscillations, respectively. $S$($a,β,t$) or the scattering law, uuantify these temperature-dependent crystallographic contributions to total cross section (or reaction rate). In a Monte Carlo analysis, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of $S$($a,β,t$) are loaded to memory from “A Compact ENDF” (ACE) files for stochastically selecting thermal scattered neutron trajectories. In this work, novel neural thermal scattering (NeTS) modules for $S$($a,β,t$) CDFs are designed, trained, serialized and embedded within SERPENT using Python’s limited C-API for on-the-fly deployment of crystalline graphite $S$($a,β,t$) sampling. Torchscript tracing and Numba just-in-time (JIT) compilation streamline neural inference on NVIDIA GPUs with CUDA libraries. Demonstrations of bare sphere thermalization of fast and thermal sources show excellent agreement between embedded NeTS in SERPENT and MCNP. With an explicit model of the reactor, NeTS can predict on-the-fly changes in TREAT neutron spectra as a function of local temperature, which can serve to improve transient and accident predictions in a multiphysics analysis framework. This framework can be further extended to account on-the-fly for changes in local graphitic microstructure to scattering cross sections, and outlines a novel coupling of modern machine learning with state-of-the-art reactor physics methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Principle of Energetic Consistency

A basic result in estimation theory is that the minimum variance estimate of the dynamical state, given the observations, is the conditional mean estimate. This result holds independently of the specifics of any dynamical or observation nonlinearity or stochasticity, requiring only that the probability density function of the state, conditioned on the observations, has two moments. For nonlinear dynamics that conserve a total energy, this general result implies the principle of energetic consistency: if the dynamical variables are taken to be the natural energy variables, then the sum of the total energy of the conditional mean and the trace of the conditional covariance matrix (the total variance) is constant between observations. Ensemble Kalman filtering methods are designed to approximate the evolution of the conditional mean and covariance matrix. For them the principle of energetic consistency holds independently of ensemble size, even with covariance localization. However, full Kalman filter experiments with advection dynamics have shown that a small amount of numerical dissipation can cause a large, state-dependent loss of total variance, to the detriment of filter performance. The principle of energetic consistency offers a simple way to test whether this spurious loss of variance limits ensemble filter performance in full-blown applications. The classical second-moment closure (third-moment discard) equations also satisfy the principle of energetic consistency, independently of the rank of the conditional covariance matrix. Low-rank approximation of these equations offers an energetically consistent, computationally viable alternative to ensemble filtering. Current formulations of long-window, weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational methods are designed to approximate the conditional mode rather than the conditional mean. Thus they neglect the nonlinear bias term in the second-moment closure equation for the conditional mean. The principle of energetic consistency implies that, to precisely the extent that growing modes are important in data assimilation, this term is also important.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hutchinson Trace Estimation for high-dimensional and high-order Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have proven effective in solving partial differential equations (PDEs), especially when some data are available by seamlessly blending data and physics. However, extending PINNs to high-dimensional and even high-order PDEs encounters significant challenges due to the computational cost associated with automatic differentiation in the residual loss function calculation. Herein, we address the limitations of PINNs in handling high-dimensional and high-order PDEs by introducing the Hutchinson Trace Estimation (HTE) method. Starting with the second-order high-dimensional PDEs, which are ubiquitous in scientific computing, HTE is applied to transform the calculation of the entire Hessian matrix into a Hessian vector product (HVP). This approach not only alleviates the computational bottleneck via Taylor-mode automatic differentiation but also significantly reduces memory consumption from the Hessian matrix to an HVP’s scalar output. We further showcase HTE’s convergence to the original PINN loss and its unbiased behavior under specific conditions. Comparisons with the Stochastic Dimension Gradient Descent (SDGD) highlight the distinct advantages of HTE, particularly in scenarios with significant variability and variance among dimensions. We further extend the application of HTE to higher-order and higher-dimensional PDEs, specifically addressing the biharmonic equation. By employing tensor-vector products (TVP), HTE efficiently computes the colossal tensor associated with the fourth-order high-dimensional biharmonic equation, saving memory and enabling rapid computation. The effectiveness of HTE is illustrated through experimental setups, demonstrating comparable convergence rates with SDGD under memory and speed constraints. Additionally, HTE proves valuable in accelerating the Gradient-Enhanced PINN (gPINN) version as well as the Biharmonic equation. Overall, HTE opens up a new capability in scientific machine learning for tackling high-order and high-dimensional PDEs.

Curse of dimensionality↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fault isolation and fault-tolerant control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy time-varying delay stochastic distribution systems

A fault isolation, estimation, and fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme for nonlinear time-varying delay stochastic distribution control systems was presented in this paper. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model was adopted to approach the nonlinear dynamics of time-varying delay systems. According to the output equivalence principle and Laplace transformation, an augmented state vector was given to solve the time-varying delay problem. When multiple actuator faults and interference occur simultaneously, fault detection, isolation and fault estimation was designed to obtained the fault information. To decouple faults and obtain the value and location information of the fault, the system was separated into two parts through the designed multiple conversion matrices, in which one subsystem was only affected by one actuator fault. This has simplified the design of fault isolation and estimation. A adaptive observer for fault estimation was given. Then, fault information such as the time, location, and size was determined. The observer gain matrices were calculated using linear matrix inequality (LMI). When a fault was detected and diagnosed, a FTC algorithm was devised using the proportional-integral control scheme to compensate the fault as much as possible. It has been shown that even if multiple faults actuator occurred simultaneously, the FTC controller still ensured the output probability density function of the system traced the desired probability density function when a fault occurred. Finally, the expected results were obtained through the simulation example, which confirmed the effectiveness of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗