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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

On reading Youden: Learning about the practice of statistics and applied statistical research from a master applied statistician

From reading William John “Jack” Youden’s books and articles, Youden (1900-1971), an analytical chemist, becomes an applied statistician by the time he joins the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) in 1948. Here, this article traces his transition from chemist to applied statistician and what his body of work mostly at NBS (1948-1965) demonstrates about his practice of statistics and the role that applied statistical research plays in it. There is much we can learn from a master applied statistician.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the statistics of biased tracers in the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures

With the completion of the Planck mission, in order to continue to gather cosmological information it has become crucial to understand the Large Scale Structures (LSS) of the universe to percent accuracy. The Effective Field Theory of LSS (EFTofLSS) is a novel theoretical framework that aims to develop an analytic understanding of LSS at long distances, where inhomogeneities are small. We further develop the description of biased tracers in the EFTofLSS to account for the effect of baryonic physics and primordial non-Gaussianities, finding that new bias coefficients are required. Then, restricting to dark matter with Gaussian initial conditions, we describe the prediction of the EFTofLSS for the one-loop halo-halo and halo-matter two-point functions, and for the tree-level halo-halo-halo, matter-halo-halo and matter-matter-halo three-point functions. Several new bias coefficients are needed in the EFTofLSS, even though their contribution at a given order can be degenerate and the same parameters contribute to multiple observables. We develop a method to reduce the number of biases to an irreducible basis, and find that, at the order at which we work, seven bias parameters are enough to describe this extremely rich set of statistics. We then compare with the output of an N-body simulation where the normalization parameter of the linear power spectrum is set to σ 8 = 0.9. For the lowest mass bin, we find percent level agreement up to k ≃ 0.3 h Mpc –1 for the one-loop two-point functions, and up to k ≃ 0.15 h Mpc –1 for the tree-level three-point functions, with the k-reach decreasing with higher mass bins. In conclusion, this is consistent with the theoretical estimates, and suggests that the cosmological information in LSS amenable to analytical control is much more than previously believed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-Level Reverse Intersystem Crossing and Molecular Rigidity Improve Spin Statistics for Triplet–Triplet Annihilation Upconversion

The structural factors affecting triplet−triplet annihilation (TTA) at the molecular level are not well-understood. Here, our steady-state photoluminescence and transient absorption results demonstrate that the spin statistical factor, η, decreases from 0.60 to 0.46 and 0.14 going from 9,10-diphenylanthracene (DPA) to the 1,5-DPA and 2,6-DPA isomers, respectively, during photon upconversion with a platinum octaethylporphyrin sensitizer. Density functional theory (DFT) shows that η depends on the energetics of hot triplet states and molecular rigidity. The significantly high conical intersection energy between the S 0 and T 1 states for 9,10-DPA gives its longer triplet lifetime. Time-dependent DFT calculations show that 9,10-DPA and 1,5-DPA can undergo high-level reverse intersystem crossing from their T 2 and T 3 states, respectively, to the bright S 1 state, increasing the limit of the spin statistical factor. Both factors ultimately serve to enhance the TTA efficiency. Furthermore, this work provides insight into designing molecules for efficient light-emitting and photon upconversion applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings: Preprint

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape of the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantitative Evaluation of MD/HD Vehicle Electrification using Statistical Data

This paper presents a wide-ranging analysis of Class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrification by means of developing a framework tool which uses a quantitative method of estimating electric vehicle energy consumption and appropriate charging considerations. The Fleet DNA composite statistics on real-world driving behavior is used to evaluate feasible or market-ready battery electric vehicle (BEV) technologies in medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) applications. In the paper, ten representative Class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrifications have been evaluated as a function of various service coverages, including applications in port drayage tractors, refuse trucks, delivery trucks, buses, and bucket trucks. The results indicate significant energy savings and fuel cost savings across all MD/HD vehicle electrifications. The majority of MD BEVs, with the exception of Class 3 bucket trucks, achieve better than a 5-year payback with 50–75% service coverage. For HD BEVs, with the exception of the Class 8 port drayage tractors, the 90% service coverage results in a 10-year or longer payback time, while the 50% service coverage yields a 7–8 year payback. Class 8 port drayage tractors should achieve payback in no more than a 3.5 years with 50–75% service coverage. Thus, the analysis indicates a highly feasible potential for Class 3-6 MD vehicles to be electrified, and feasible opportunities for electrification in Class 7-8 HD short-distance applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical mechanics and pressure of composite multimoded weakly nonlinear optical systems

Statistical mechanics can provide a versatile theoretical framework for investigating the collective dynamics of weakly nonlinear-wave settings that can be utterly complex to describe otherwise. In optics, composite systems arise due to interactions between different frequencies and polarizations. The purpose of this work is to develop a thermodynamic theory that takes into account the synergistic action of multiple components. We find that the type of the nonlinearity involved can have important implications in the thermalization process and, hence, can lead to different thermal equilibrium conditions. Importantly, we derive closed-form expressions for the actual optomechanical pressure that is exerted on the system. In particular, the total optomechanical pressure is the sum of the partial pressures due to each component. Our results can be applied to a variety of weakly nonlinear optical settings such as multimode fibers, bulk waveguides, photonic lattices, and coupled microresonators. We present two specific examples, where two colors interact in a one-waveguide array with either a cubic or quadratic nonlinearity.

Efremidis, Nikolaos K. (ORCID:0000000298300268)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Improvement of vertical velocity statistics measured by a Doppler lidar through comparison with sonic anemometer observations

Since turbulence measurements from Doppler lidars are being increasingly used within wind energy and boundary-layer meteorology, it is important to assess and improve the accuracy of these observations. While turbulent quantities are measured by Doppler lidars in several different ways, the simplest and most frequently used statistic is vertical velocity variance ( w ' 2 ) from zenith stares. But, the competing effects of signal noise and resolution volume limitations, which respectively increase and decrease w ' 2 , reduce the accuracy of these measurements. Herein, an established method that utilises the autocovariance of the signal to remove noise is evaluated and its skill in correcting for volume-averaging effects in the calculation of w ' 2 is also assessed. In addition, this autocovariance technique is further refined by defining the amount of lag time to use for the most accurate estimates of w ' 2 . And through comparison of observations from two Doppler lidars and sonic anemometers on a 300 m tower, the autocovariance technique is shown to generally improve estimates of w ' 2 . After the autocovariance technique is applied, values of w ' 2 from the Doppler lidars are generally in close agreement ( R 2 ≈ 0.95 -0.98) with those calculated from sonic anemometer measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

Some new results on the statistics of radio wave scintillation. I - Empirical evidence for Gaussian statistics

This paper presents an analysis of ionospheric scintillation data which shows that the underlying statistical structure of the signal can be accurately modeled by the additive complex Gaussian perturbation predicted by the Born approximation in conjunction with an application of the central limit theorem. By making use of this fact, it is possible to estimate the in-phase, phase quadrature, and cophased scattered power by curve fitting to measured intensity histograms. By using this procedure, it is found that typically more than 80% of the scattered power is in phase quadrature with the undeviated signal component. Thus, the signal is modeled by a Gaussian, but highly non-Rician process. From simultaneous UHF and VHF data, only a weak dependence of this statistical structure on changes in the Fresnel radius is deduced. The signal variance is found to have a nonquadratic wavelength dependence. It is hypothesized that this latter effect is a subtle manifestation of locally homogeneous irregularity structures, a mathematical model proposed by Kolmogorov (1941) in his early studies of incompressible fluid turbulence.

Rino, C. L.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Median statistics estimate of the galactic rotational velocity

We compile a complete collection of 18 recent (from 2000 to 2017) measurements of Θ 0 , the rotational velocity of the Milky Way at R 0 (the radial distance of the Sun from the Galactic center). These measurements use tracers that are believed to more accurately reflect the systematic rotation of the Milky Way. Unlike other recent compilations of Θ 0 , our collection includes only independent measurements. We find that these 18 measurements are distributed in a mildly non-Gaussian fashion and a median statistics estimate indicates Θ 0 = 220 ± 10 kms –1 (2σ error) as the most reliable summary, at R 0 = 8.0 ± 0.3 kpc (2σ error).

(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying the heterogeneity of shale through statistical combination of imaging across scales

Shale is a highly heterogeneous material across multiple scales. A typical shale consists of nanometer-scale pores and minerals mixed with macro-scale fractures and particles of varying size. High-resolution imaging is crucial for characterizing the composition and microstructure of this rock. Yet, it is generally not feasible to image a large sample of shale at a high resolution over a large field of view (FOV), thus limiting a full characterization of the microstructure of this material. We present a stochastic framework based on multiple-point statistics that uses high-resolution training images to enhance low-resolution images obtained over a large FOV. Here, we demonstrate the approach using X-ray micro-tomography images of organic-rich Woodford shale obtained at two different resolutions and FOV. Results show that the proposed technique can generate realistic high-resolution images of the microstructure of shale over a large FOV.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Experiments, Statistical Analysis, and Modeling to Evaluate the Porosity Influence in SPS Coatings

Suspension plasma spray (SPS) is far more complicated than conventional plasma spray and requires a deep knowledge about the influence of process parameters and their correlations. In this study, YSZ coatings were manufactured by SPS with six different process parameters such as plasma power, suspension mass load, original powder size, substrate surface topology, spray distance, and spray step. Then, the porosity of as-prepared coatings was investigated by image method and X-ray transmission technique. A multivariate analysis on the collected experimental data was carried out by employing mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that: 1) Coating porosity has a negative correlation with plasma power and suspension mass load and a positive correlation with the original powder size, spray distance, spray step, and substrate roughness; 2) Spraying distance is the main factor affecting to coating porosity, followed by suspension mass load and substrate surface roughness, respectively. A linear model for porosity prediction was developed and was verified by experiments. Furthermore, the mechanism by which process parameters influence coating porosity is additionally discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microstructural characterization of dendritic evolution using two-point statistics

Characterizing large four-dimensional materials datasets is difficult due to the presence of complex mi- crostructures and time-varying length scales. We showcase the use of two-point statistics as an efficient and un-biased way of extracting materials parameters from an Al-Cu alloy during solidification. The evo- lution of dendrite primary arm thickness, average secondary arm spacing, and average tip-to-tip spacing were tracked using two-point Pearson auto-correlations of scaled mean curvatures. Insights into compet- itive side-branching are also reported. We show both visually and quantitatively that most length scales change rapidly during early stages of dendritic growth, but slow as diffusion fields of dendrites overlap.

Aluminum alloys↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trajectory Ensemble Methods Provide Single-Molecule Statistics for Quantum Dynamical Systems

The emergence of experiments capable of probing quantum dynamics at the single-molecule level requires the development of new theoretical tools capable of simulating and analyzing these dynamics beyond an ensemble-averaged description. In this article, we present an efficient method for sampling and simulating the dynamics of the individual quantum systems that make up an ensemble and apply it to study the nonequilibrium dynamics of the ubiquitous spin-boson model. We generate an ensemble of single-system trajectories, and we analyze this trajectory ensemble using tools from classical statistical mechanics. Our results demonstrate that the dynamics of quantum coherence is highly heterogeneous at the single-system level due to variations in the initial bath configuration, which significantly affects the transient exchange of coherence between the system and its bath. Here, we observe that single systems tend to retain coherence over time scales longer than that of the ensemble. We also compute a novel thermodynamic entanglement entropy that quantifies a thermodynamic driving force favoring system–bath entanglement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tripled yield in direct-drive laser fusion through statistical modelling [Tripling the yield in direct-drive laser fusion via predictive statistical modeling]

Focusing laser light onto a very small target can produce the conditions for laboratory-scale nuclear fusion of hydrogen isotopes. The lack of accurate predictive models, which are essential for the design of high-performance laser-fusion experiments, is a major obstacle to achieving thermonuclear ignition. Here we report a statistical approach that was used to design and quantitatively predict the results of implosions of solid deuterium–tritium targets carried out with the 30-kilojoule OMEGA laser system, leading to tripling of the fusion yield to its highest value so far for direct-drive laser fusion. When scaled to the laser energies of the National Ignition Facility (1.9 megajoules), these targets are predicted to produce a fusion energy output of about 500 kilojoules—several times larger than the fusion yields currently achieved at that facility. As a result, this approach could guide the exploration of the vast parameter space of thermonuclear ignition conditions and enhance our understanding of laser-fusion physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical properties of autonomous flows in 2D active nematics

We study the dynamics of a tunable 2D active nematic liquid crystal composed of microtubules and kinesin motors confined to an oil–water interface. Kinesin motors continuously inject mechanical energy into the system through ATP hydrolysis, powering the relative microscopic sliding of adjacent microtubules, which in turn generates macroscale autonomous flows and chaotic dynamics. We use particle image velocimetry to quantify two-dimensional flows of active nematics and extract their statistical properties. In agreement with the hydrodynamic theory, we find that the vortex areas comprising the chaotic flows are exponentially distributed, which allows us to extract the characteristic system length scale. We probe the dependence of this length scale on the ATP concentration, which is the experimental knob that tunes the magnitude of the active stress. In conclusion, our data suggest a possible mapping between the ATP concentration and the active stress that is based on the Michaelis–Menten kinetics that governs the motion of individual kinesin motors.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗