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At least 37 records · Page 2

Statistical Multiobjective Optimization of Thiospinel CoNi 2 S 4 Nanocrystal Synthesis via Design of Experiments

Thiospinels, such as CoNi 2 S 4 , are showing promise for numerous applications, including as catalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction, hydrodesulfurization, and oxygen evolution and reduction reactions; however, CoNi 2 S 4 has not been synthesized as small, colloidal nanocrystals with high surface-area-to-volume ratios. Traditional optimization methods to control nanocrystal attributes such as size typically rely upon one variable at a time (OVAT) methods that are not only time and labor intensive but also lack the ability to identify higher-order interactions between experimental variables that affect target outcomes. Herein, we demonstrate that a statistical design of experiments (DoE) approach can optimize the synthesis of CoNi 2 S 4 nanocrystals, allowing for control over the responses of nanocrystal size, size distribution, and isolated yield. After implementing a 2 5–2 fractional factorial design, the statistical screening of five different experimental variables identified temperature, Co:Ni precursor ratio, Co:thiol ratio, and their higher-order interactions as the most critical factors in influencing the aforementioned responses. Second-order design with a Doehlert matrix yielded polynomial functions used to predict the reaction parameters needed to individually optimize all three responses. A multiobjective optimization, allowing for the simultaneous optimization of size, size distribution, and isolated yield, predicted the synthetic conditions needed to achieve a minimum nanocrystal size of 6.1 nm, a minimum polydispersity (σ/$\bar{d}$) of 10%, and a maximum isolated yield of 99%, with a desirability of 96%. The resulting model was experimentally verified by performing reactions under the specified conditions. Furthermore, our work illustrates the advantage of multivariate experimental design as a powerful tool for accelerating control and optimization in nanocrystal syntheses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Using the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) Tool to Design the Experiments in the Parametric Campaign of a Novel Compact Absorber for Carbon Capture

Gas absorption towers with structured packing and solvent have been used for Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Capture for about many decades. To overcome process limitations and practical disadvantages for CO 2 capture from the stationary emitter (e.g. NG and coal power plant), many new designs have been proposed and explored at the various scales in the last decade with aim of either low energy penalty or low capital cost. To reduce the size of the absorption tower and hence the total cost of CO 2 capture, the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Research Center (UK CAER) has designed and built a novel CO 2 capture absorption tower or Compact Absorber, integrated into an existing large-bench scale CO 2 capture unit. The Compact Absorber has three sections. The top of the column is a fogging section where the solvent is sprayed through a nozzle producing droplets flowing downward in a co-current fashion with the flue gas. The center of the column is a frothing section where the solvent and flue gas flow through regenerative frothing screens designed by Industrial Climate Solutions, Inc. The bottom of the column is a typical structured packing section were the flue gas and solvent flow in a counter-current fashion. The parametric campaign will be conducted in order to optimize the operating parameters for CO 2 capture including liquid/gas ratio, lean loading, and temperature, liquid residence time. A simulated flue gas with 14% CO 2 will be used along with a UK CAER developed proprietary solvent. The 100-hour parametric campaign is designed using a statistical approach of the Sequential Design of Experiments (sDOE). sDOE is one of the CCSI tools that provides an adaptive statistical approach for designing future experiments based on the results of previous experiments. Application of a typical DOE provides the user with the minimum number of experiments required to get the same data, but sDOE allows the user to make an informed choice of experiments based on the results of previous experiments. The complete absorption column has been constructed and has been partially commissioned. Initial data has been collected by operating using the fogging section and the frothing section. The fogging section produces solvent droplets of about 100 μm sauter mean diameter and as small as 25 μm using a hydraulic nozzle by BETE. The frothing section produces bubbles of about 5mm with high mixing of solvent promoting the higher mass transfer from gas to liquid. The absorber reaches the capture efficiency of about 50% with only two sections in operation. Based on the current results, it can be deduced that increasing the solvent feed temperature and including the packed section for absorption the capture efficiency will increase further. Initial data will be collected using all three sections of the absorber and will be used for sDOE. Non-Uniform Space Filling model of sDOE will be used to prioritize the input conditions resulting into maximum capture efficiency. sDOE is performed using the platform called Framework Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty, and Surrogates (FOQUS). The method and results demonstrating the progress of the parametric campaign from the initial set of experiments to the final stage of obtaining optimized parameters using sDOE tool will be presented in detail.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Prediction of spout diameter in gas-solid spouted beds using factorial design of experiments approach with the aid of advanced optical fibre probe

In this study, the effects of five operating and design variables (solid density, static bed height, particle diameter, superficial gas velocity, and inlet diameter) on the average spout diameter of a 0.152 m inside diameter gas-solid spouted bed have been assessed experimentally using advanced gas-solid optical fibre probe technique. Statistical analysis of the experimental data including the factorial design of the experiments using MINITAB17 statistical software has been performed to determine the extent of the effects of these variables on the spout diameter as a case study. It was found that all five operating and design variables, except the solid density together with the 2-ways interactions between particles size and inlet diameter, in addition to gas velocity and inlet diameter, have a significant effect on the average spout diameter. Regression analysis was performed to correlate these variables with the average spout diameter for the gas-solid spouted beds. The obtained preliminary regression correlation was able to closely predict the average spout diameter of this work with the mean relative deviation value of 0.7 %.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Design and analysis of confirmation experiments

The statistical literature and practitioners have long advocated the use of confirmation experiments as the final stage of a sequence of designed experiments to verify that the optimal operating conditions identified as part of a response surface methodology strategy are attainable and able to achieve the value of the response desired. Yet, until recently there has been a gap between this recommendation and details about how to perform an analysis to quantitatively assess whether the confirmation runs are adequate. Likewise, there has been little in the way of specific recommendations for the number and nature of the confirmation runs that should be performed. In this article, we propose analysis methods to assess agreement between the mean response from previous experiments and the confirmation experiment, and suggest a strategy for the design of confirmation experiments that more fully explores the region around the optimum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Photon strength and the low-energy enhancement

Several measurements in medium mass nuclei have reported a low-energy enhancement in the photon strength function. Although, much effort has been invested in unraveling the mysteries of this effect, its physical origin is still not conclusively understood. Here, a completely model-independent experimental approach to investigate the existence of this enhancement is presented. The experiment was designed to study statistical feeding from the quasi-continuum (below the neutron separation energy) to individual low-lying discrete levels in {sup 95}Mo produced in the (d, p) reaction. A key aspect to successfully study gamma decay from the region of high-level density is the detection and extraction of correlated particle-gamma-gamma events which was accomplished using an array of Clover HPGe detectors and large area annular silicon detectors. The entrance channel excitation energy into the residual nucleus produced in the reaction was inferred from the detected proton energies in the silicon detectors. Gating on gamma-transitions originating from low-lying discrete levels specifies the state fed by statistical gamma-rays. Any particle-gamma-gamma event in combination with specific energy sum requirements ensures a clean and unambiguous determination of the initial and final state of the observed gamma rays. With these requirements the statistical feeding to individual discrete levels is extracted on an event-by-event basis. The results are presented and compared to {sup 95}Mo photon strength function data measured at the University of Oslo.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Developing and applying quantifiable metrics for diagnostic and experiment design on Z

This project applies methods in Bayesian inference and modern statistical methods to quantify the value of new experimental data, in the form of new or modified diagnostic configurations and/or experiment designs. We demonstrate experiment design methods that can be used to identify the highest priority diagnostic improvements or experimental data to obtain in order to reduce uncertainties on critical inferred experimental quantities and select the best course of action to distinguish between competing physical models. Bayesian statistics and information theory provide the foundation for developing the necessary metrics, using two high impact experimental platforms on Z as exemplars to develop and illustrate the technique. We emphasize that the general methodology is extensible to new diagnostics (provided synthetic models are available), as well as additional platforms. We also discuss initial scoping of additional applications that began development in the last year of this LDRD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using statistical modeling to predict and understand fusion experiments

Over 300 cryogenic layered direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions have been successfully executed on the OMEGA Laser System in the last decade. However, extracting sufficient understanding from these experiments to develop new designs or to identify or mitigate degradation sources remains challenging. Recently, a statistical modeling approach was developed to successfully design and predict improved implosion experiments on OMEGA. Here, we show that one-dimensional simulations can be used to predict the outcomes of systematically perturbed three-dimensional simulations and that this statistical modeling approach can be used to identify or rule out physical mechanisms for some of the degradation sources observed on the OMEGA Laser System for direct-drive cryogenic inertial confinement fusion. In this instance, we investigate the fusion yield dependencies on the ion temperature asymmetries and laser beam size observed in experiments by comparing with trends in three-dimensional synthetic simulation databases. Using the statistical model on these systematically perturbed simulations, we find that the statistically inferred dependency on the measured ion temperature asymmetries is well explained by imposed ℓ =1 modes. However, we find that the dependency on the laser beam size is only dominated by the illumination non-uniformity for some extreme cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Simulating the SuperCDMS Dark Matter Detector Response and Readout

Dark matter is one of the remaining great mysteries of modern physics. Cosmological and astrophysical evidence hints strongly at a new particle, or set of particles, unknown to the Standard Model, comprising some 80% of all of the matter in the universe. SuperCDMS is one of the world-leading direct-detection experiments attempting to directly measure interactions between dark and regular matter. SuperCDMS uses solid state crystalline detectors in a nearly-zero background environment to attempt to measure the particle properties of dark matter. The detectors themselves, however, are quite complex; and a very detailed understanding of the microscopic physics is helpful in analyzing the very rare events that occur within them. Furthermore, better understanding and modeling of the detectors can aid in the design and optimization of future iterations of the experiment. The SuperCDMS detectors are well-understood in ideal cases. However, an accurate understanding of the detector response to outlier events or under non-ideal conditions is important for a low-statistics experiment. This work describes the design and implementation of a low temperature condensed matter physics simulation library built on top of the popular Geant4 particle tracking framework. The library, named \Geant4 Condensed Matter Physics" or G4CMP, introduces several solid state concepts to the Geant4 framework such as crystal lattices, phonon quasiparticles, non-scalar elective masses, and implements several physics processes relevant to cryogenic temperature crystals. In addition to the physics library, which is intended for general use, this work also describes a full Monte Carlo simulation package for the SuperCDMS iZIP detectors which utilizes G4CMP at its core and also fully simulates the detector readout sensors. The document will begin with the canonical motivations for the cold dark matter hypothesis, followed by a description of the SuperCDMS experiment. It will then describe the microscopic physics inside of the SuperCDMS detectors, as well as details on their implementation in G4CMP. The full detector simulation with corresponding sensor readout will follow, along with plans for future work; including both scientific studies and improvements, as well as computational improvements and added efficiencies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding Process–Structure Relationships during Lamination of Halide Perovskite Interfaces

Fabrication of halide perovskite (HP) solar cells typically involves the sequential deposition of multiple layers to create a device stack, which is limited by the thermal and chemical incompatibility of top contact layers with the underlying HP semiconductor. One emerging strategy to overcome these restrictions on material selection and processing conditions is lamination, where two half-stacks are independently processed and then diffusion bonded to complete the device. Lamination reduces the processing constraints on the top side of the solar cell to allow new device designs, expanded use of deposition methods, and self-encapsulation of devices. While laminated perovskite solar cells with high efficiencies and novel interlayer combinations have been demonstrated, there is a limited understanding of how the lamination process parameters affect the diffusion-bond quality and material properties of the resulting HP layer. In this study, we systematically vary temperature, pressure, and time during lamination and quantify the resulting impacts on bonded area, grain domain size, and photoluminescence. A design of experiments is performed, and statistical analysis of the experimental results is used to quantitatively evaluate the resulting process–structure–property relationships. The lamination temperature is found to be the key parameter controlling these properties. Furthermore, a temperature of 150 °C enables successful bonding over 95% of the substrate area and also results in increases in apparent grain domain size and photoluminescence intensity. Based on these insights, the lamination temperature of functional perovskite solar cell devices is varied, demonstrating the importance of the resulting bond quality on device performance metrics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

CheKiPEUQ Intro 2: Harnessing Uncertainties from Data Sets, Bayesian Design of Experiments in Chemical Kinetics**

When choosing experimental conditions, Bayesian statistical tools can predict the experimental choices which will yield the highest information gain. Experimental choices could be temperature, pressure, reaction time, number of measurements, reactor volume, etc.. Three example analyses are presented here, each using the software Chemical Kinetics Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (CheKiPEUQ). Information gain is a measure of reduction of uncertainty in a model's parameters. The three chemical system examples presented each illustrate Bayesian Design of Experiments using information gain. In the first chemical example, temperature selection impacts the information gain for the free energy of reaction in a two-component equilibrium reaction. In the second example, temperature and pressure are explored for a competitive adsorption Langmuir replacement reaction system. Finally, the third example is a catalytic membrane reactor which is a culmination of the previous examples. The catalytic membrane reactor has a complex and nonlinear response in the observables which is solved by numerical evaluation. In the three examples, the experimental conditions are treated as design variables for maximizing information gain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tripled yield in direct-drive laser fusion through statistical modelling

Accurate predictive models are essential to the design of high-performance, laser-fusion experiments. Here, we report the development of a promising statistical approach that has been used to quantitatively predict and design several cryogenic deuterium-tritium (DT) implosions on the OMEGA Laser System, leading to the tripling of the fusion yield to its highest value for direct-drive laser fusion of DT-layered targets. When scaled to National Ignition Facility laser energies of 1.9 MJ, these targets are predicted to produce a fusion energy output of ~500 kJ—several times larger than current fusion yields achieved at that facility. Future applications of this approach will guide the exploration of the vast parameter space for the conditions required for thermonuclear ignition and expose gaps in our understanding of laser-fusion physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Design and Construction of a High-Resolution Hodoscope for the GlueX Experiment with High-Statistics Analysis of the p0, ¿, and ¿1 Photoproduction Cross Sections from the RadPhi Experiment

Differential cross sections for forward-angle photoproduction of p0, ¿, and ¿ 1 pseudoscalar mesons were measured using data from the RadPhi experiment conducted in Hall B at Jef ferson Lab. RadPhi utilized a tagged bremsstrahlung photon beam incident on a stationary 9Be target, with a detector system configured to trigger on a recoil proton in coincidence with multiple neutral showers in the calorimeter. Events were reconstructed and subjected to kinematic constraints, with background suppressed via sideband subtraction guided by Monte Carlo modeling of background contributions. Cross sections were extracted over the photon energy range 4.4– 5.4 GeV and binned in invariant momentum transfer t, providing measurements from one of the first high-statistics experiments of forward ¿ and ¿1 pro duction from a nuclear target at these energies. Acceptance corrections were applied using a detailed GEANT-based simulation of the detector geometry and response. The resulting cross sections are consistent with 2020 CLAS results, when scaled by the number of protons in beryllium, and show broad agreement with other data and theoretical models. In parallel, a high-resolution photon tagger detector, the Tagger Microscope (TAGM), was designed, constructed, and commissioned for the GlueX experiment in Hall D at Jefferson Lab. The TAGM was developed to provide high-rate tagging capability in the coherent bremsstrahlung peak by detecting post-bremsstrahlung electrons across a one GeV range along the focal plane of the tagging spectrometer. The detector consists of a 5ˆ102 array of 2ˆ2 mm2 square BCF-20 plastic scintillating fibers thermally fused to BCF-98 light guide fibers optically coupled to silicon photomultipliers. These fibers are mounted in a precision machined framework enabling fine positional adjustments to maintain precise alignment with post-bremsstrahlung electron trajectories, while ensuring mechanical rigidity, thermal stability, optical isolation, minimal inactive area, and radiation shielding for electronics. The construction effort involved extensive testing of fiber quality, light transmission, thermal fusing, radiation hardness, and defect analysis using SEM and EDX techniques. Following its installation and commissioning, the TAGM became a critical component of the GlueX beamline, enabling high-rate tagging essential for studies of hybrid mesons and gluonic ex citations.

McIntyre, James [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT ↗

Bayesian Design of Experiments for Logistic Regression to Evaluate Multiple Forensic Algorithms

When evaluating the performance of several forensic classification algorithms, it is desirable to construct a design that considers a variety of performance levels for each of the algorithms. We describe a strategy to use Bayesian design of experiments with multiple prior estimates to capture anticipated performance. Our goal is to characterize results from the different classification algorithms as a function of multiple explanatory variables and use this to choose a design about which units to test. Bayesian design of experiments has been successful for generalized linear models, including logistic regression models. Here, we develop methodology for the case where there are several potentially nonoverlapping priors for anticipated performance under consideration. The weighted priors method performs well for a broad range of true underlying model parameter choices and is more robust when compared to other candidate design choices. Additionally, we show how this can be applied in the multivariate input case and provide some useful summary measures. The shared information plot is used to evaluate design point allocation, and the D-value difference plot allows for the comparison of design performance across multiple potential parameter values in higher dimensions. Here, we illustrate the methods with several examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preface to special topic: The High Repetition Rate Frontier in High-Energy-Density Physics

High-repetition-rate (HRR) experiments can collect large datasets with high temporal, spatial, and/or parametric resolution or large numbers of repeat measurements for statistics. HRR experiments also enable new experimental designs, including active feedback control loops and novel diagnostics, that can improve the reproducibility as well as the quantity of measurements. Together, these attributes make HRR experiments ideal for performing high-quality repeatable science. Until recently, these techniques have not been applied to high-energy-density–physics (HEDP) experiments, which are typically restricted to repetition rates of a few per day. However, recent advancements in lasers, pulsed-power drivers, target fabrication, and diagnostics are starting to change this fact, opening an exciting new frontier of HRR HEDP experiments. A mini-conference on this subject at the 2021 meeting of the American Physical Society Division of Plasma Physics brought together members of this growing community. As a result, the “High Repetition Rate Frontier in High-Energy-Density Physics” special topic in Physics of Plasmas highlights current progress in this exciting area.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Investigation of Sb-Containing Precursors for Cu(In, Ga)Se2 Thin Films Through Design of Experiments

The Design of Experiments (DoE) module in JMP statistical software was used to determine the best parameters for Sb-containing CIGS precursors with a fixed selenization step. Solar cells were fabricated and measured for all completed films. The most important factor influencing the current-voltage device parameters was identified as the temperature and antimony flux interaction. The DoE prediction profiler and predictive contour plots provided guidance to further improve the device parameters. In one follow-up run, we increased device efficiency from 14.9% to 15.5% Additional gains in efficiency to 16.9% were realized by introducing an intentional Ga gradient and an antireflective coating.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Atomistic structural ensemble refinement reveals non-native structure stabilizes a sub-millisecond folding intermediate of CheY

The dynamics of globular proteins can be described in terms of transitions between a folded native state and less-populated intermediates, or excited states, which can play critical roles in both protein folding and function. Excited states are by definition transient species, and therefore are difficult to characterize using current experimental techniques. We report an atomistic model of the excited state ensemble of a stabilized mutant of an extensively studied flavodoxin fold protein CheY. We employed a hybrid simulation and experimental approach in which an aggregate 42 milliseconds of all-atom molecular dynamics were used as an informative prior for the structure of the excited state ensemble. The resulting prior was then refined against small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data employing an established method (EROS). The most striking feature of the resulting excited state ensemble was an unstructured N-terminus stabilized by non-native contacts in a conformation that is topologically simpler than the native state. We then predict incisive single molecule FRET experiments, using these results, as a means of model validation. Our study demonstrates the paradigm of uniting simulation and experiment in a statistical model to study the structure of protein excited states and rationally design validating experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗