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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Cost Model for Hydropower: Documentation (2025)

Hydropower currently contributes about 80 GW of conventional and 23 GW of pumped storage capacity to the United States (US) power grid. Previous studies have estimated a considerable amount of remaining US hydropower resources, including non-powered dams (NPD) (Hadjerioua et al., 2012), new stream-reach developments (NSD) (Kao et al., 2014), pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and canal/conduit (Kao et al., 2022). The combined theoretical capacity potential of these various hydropower resources is comparable to the existing US hydropower capacity. There is a continuing interest in developing this hydropower potential, particularly to help meet the increasing demand for electricity. However, available data (Sasthav and Oladosu, 2022) show that the rate of new hydropower development has slowed considerably over time despite the interest of industry stakeholders. This is partly due to the competition from other energy resources and from the highly dispersed nature of remaining hydropower resources, which lead to high information requirements for evaluating the feasibility of potential projects. Cost information provides the most succinct summary of the feasibility of a potential hydropower project required by stakeholders, including developers, investors, policymakers, consumer groups, etc., considering investment options. The best estimates of hydropower costs can be obtained through detailed engineering design and cost assessments of individual projects. However, this approach has high data and resource (time, funds, cross-disciplinary expertise) requirements that render it inapplicable for rapid cost estimation with limited data. Although innovative approaches can overcome some of these impediments (see Oladosu and Ma, 2024 for such an application to potential NPD projects), the development of such approaches still requires significant amounts of resources and are not generally applicable to all hydropower project types. Therefore, statistical and parametric methods using simpler cost specifications remain of significant utility to hydropower stakeholders and are, at the least, complementary to more detailed approaches, particularly when evaluating many potential projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design methodologies and engineering applications for ecosystem biomimicry: an interdisciplinary review spanning cyber, physical, and cyber-physical systems

Abstract Ecosystem biomimicry is a promising pathway for sustainable development. However, while typical form- and process-level biomimicry is prevalent, system-level ecosystem biomimicry remains a nascent practice in numerous engineering fields. This critical review takes an interdisciplinary approach to synthesize trends across case studies, evaluate design methodologies, and identify future opportunities when applying ecosystem biomimicry to engineering practices, including cyber systems (CS), physical systems (PS), and cyber-physical systems (CPS). After systematically sourcing publications from major databases, the papers were first analyzed at a meta level for their bibliographic context and for statistical correlations among categorical variables. Then, we investigated deeper into the engineering applications and design methodologies. Results indicate that CPS most frequently mimic organisms and ecosystems, while CS and PS frequently mimic populations-communities and molecules-tissues-organ systems, respectively (statistically highly significant). An indirect approach is most often used for mimicry at organizational levels from populations to ecosystems, while a direct approach frequently suits levels from molecules to organisms (highly significant). Dominant themes across engineering applications include symbiotic organism search algorithms for CS and ecological network analysis for CPS, while PS are highly diverse. For design methodologies, this work summarizes and details ten well-documented biomimetic process models among literature, which addresses an outdated concern for a lack of systematic methods for ecosystem biomimicry. In addition to the Biomimetics Standard ISO 18458, these methods include the Natural Step and Techno-Ecological Synergy framework, among others. Further, the analyses revealed future opportunities from less utilized design methods (e.g. interdisciplinary teams tackling indirect, ecosystem-level projects) to well-established engineering concepts ready for technological advancement (e.g. implementing membrane computing for physical applications). For future studies, this review provides a comprehensive reference for ecosystem biomimetic design practices and application opportunities across multiple engineering domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

What’s in My Toolkit? A Review of Technologies for Assessing Changes in Habitats Caused by Marine Energy Development

Marine energy devices are installed in highly dynamic environments and have the potential to affect the benthic and pelagic habitats around them. Regulatory bodies often require baseline characterization and/or post-installation monitoring to determine whether changes in these habitats are being observed. However, a great diversity of technologies is available for surveying and sampling marine habitats, and selecting the most suitable instrument to identify and measure changes in habitats at marine energy sites can become a daunting task. We conducted a thorough review of journal articles, survey reports, and grey literature to extract information about the technologies used, the data collection and processing methods, and the performance and effectiveness of these instruments. We examined documents related to marine energy development, offshore wind farms, oil and gas offshore sites, and other marine industries around the world over the last 20 years. A total of 120 different technologies were identified across six main habitat categories: seafloor, sediment, infauna, epifauna, pelagic, and biofouling. The technologies were organized into 12 broad technology classes: acoustic, corer, dredge, grab, hook and line, net and trawl, plate, remote sensing, scrape samples, trap, visual, and others. Visual was the most common and the most diverse technology class, with applications across all six habitat categories. Technologies and sampling methods that are designed for working efficiently in energetic environments have greater success at marine energy sites. In addition, sampling designs and statistical analyses should be carefully thought through to identify differences in faunal assemblages and spatiotemporal changes in habitats.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gauge-fixing quantum density operators at scale

We provide a theory, algorithms, and simulations of nonequilibrium quantum systems using a one-dimensional (1D) completely positive (CP), matrix-product (MP) density-operator (𝜌) representation. By generalizing the matrix product state's orthogonality center, to additionally store positive classical mixture correlations, the MP⁢𝜌 factorization naturally emerges. In this setting, we analytically and numerically examine the virtual gauge freedoms associated with the representation of quantum density operators. Based on this perspective, we simplify algorithms in certain limits to speed up the integration of the canonical-form master-equation dynamics. This enables us to quickly evolve under the dynamics of two-body quantum channels without resorting to optimization-based methods. In addition to this technical advance, we also scale up numerical examples and discuss implications for accurately modeling hardware architectures and predicting their performance in the near term. This includes an example of the quantum to classical transition of informationally leaky, i.e., decohering, qubits. In this setting, because of loss from environmental interactions, nonlocal complex coherence correlations are converted into global incoherent classical statistical mixture correlations. Lastly, the representation of both global and local correlations is discussed. We expect this work to have applications in additional nonequilibrium settings, beyond qubit engineering.

Gangapuram, Amit Jamadagni [Oak Ridge National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal experimental design: Formulations and computations

Questions of ‘how best to acquire data’ are essential to modelling and prediction in the natural and social sciences, engineering applications, and beyond. Optimal experimental design (OED) formalizes these questions and creates computational methods to answer them. This article presents a systematic survey of modern OED, from its foundations in classical design theory to current research involving OED for complex models. We begin by reviewing criteria used to formulate an OED problem and thus to encode the goal of performing an experiment. We emphasize the flexibility of the Bayesian and decision-theoretic approach, which encompasses information-based criteria that are well-suited to nonlinear and non-Gaussian statistical models. We then discuss methods for estimating or bounding the values of these design criteria; this endeavour can be quite challenging due to strong nonlinearities, high parameter dimension, large per-sample costs, or settings where the model is implicit. A complementary set of computational issues involves optimization methods used to find a design; we discuss such methods in the discrete (combinatorial) setting of observation selection and in settings where an exact design can be continuously parametrized. Finally we present emerging methods for sequential OED that build non-myopic design policies, rather than explicit designs; these methods naturally adapt to the outcomes of past experiments in proposing new experiments, while seeking coordination among all experiments to be performed. Throughout, we highlight important open questions and challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of computing-based automated fault detection and diagnosis of heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems

We report faults in Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems of buildings result in significant energy waste in building operation. With fast-growing sensing data availability and advancement in computing, computational modeling has demonstrated strong capability to detect and diagnose HVAC system faults, hence, ensuring efficient building operation. This paper comprehensively reviews the state-of-the-art computing-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) for HVAC systems. Overall, the reviewed computing-based FDD methods are classified as two major approaches: knowledge-based and data-driven approaches. We then identify multiple important topics, including data availability, training data size, data quality, approach generality, capability, interpretability, and required modeling efforts, along with corresponding metrics to summarize the most updated FDD development. Generally, the knowledge-based approaches are further divided as physics-based modeling, Diagnostic Bayesian Network, and performance indicator-based methods while data-driven approaches include supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and regression and statistics-based methods. State-of-the-art FDD development, remaining challenges, and future research directions are further discussed to push forward FDD in practice. Availability of fault data, capability of existing methods to deal with complex fault situations (such as simultaneous faults), modeling interpretability for data-driven methods, and required engineering efforts for physics-based methods are identified as remaining challenges in FDD development. Improving modeling fidelity and reducing modeling efforts are essential for applying physics-based methods in real buildings. Meanwhile, addressing fault data availability, increasing algorithm adaptability, and handling multiple faults are essential to further enhance the applicability of data-driven FDD approaches.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-driven super-resolution in Raman hyperspectral imaging: Efficient high-resolution reconstruction from low-resolution data

Deep learning (DL) has become an indispensable tool in hyperspectral data analysis, automatically extracting valuable features from complex, high-dimensional datasets. Super-resolution reconstruction, an essential aspect of hyperspectral data, involves enhancing spatial resolution, particularly relevant to low-resolution hyperspectral data. Yet, the pursuit of super-resolution in hyperspectral analysis is fraught with challenges, including acquiring ground truth high-resolution data for training, generalization, and scalability. The pressing issue of extended spectral acquisition times, notably for high-resolution scans, is a significant roadblock in hyperspectral imaging. Super-resolution methods offer a promising solution by providing higher spatial resolution data to expedite data collection and yield more efficient outcomes. This paper delves into a practical application of these concepts using Raman imaging, where spectral acquisition times can be prohibitively long. In this context, DL-based super-resolution models demonstrate their efficacy by predicting and reconstructing high-resolution Raman data from low-resolution input, eliminating the need for resource-intensive high-resolution scans. While previous work often relied on substantial high-resolution datasets, this study showcases the ability to achieve similar outcomes even with limited data, presenting a more practical and cost-effective approach. In conclusion, the results offer a glimpse into the transformative potential of this technology to streamline hyperspectral imaging applications by saving valuable time and resources through the successful generation of high-resolution data from low-resolution inputs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical reconstruction of 3D well-connected porous media from 2D exemplars using statistics-informed neural network

The relationships between porous microstructures and transport properties are of fundamental importance in various scientific and engineering applications. Due to the intricacy, stochasticity and heterogeneity of porous media, reliable characterization and modeling of transport properties often require a complete dataset of internal microstructure samples. However, it is often an unbearable cost to acquire sufficient 3D digital microstructures by purely using microscopic imaging systems. Herein this paper presents a machine learning-based technique to hierarchically reconstruct 3D well-connected porous microstructures from one isotropic or several anisotropic low-cost 2D exemplar(s). To compactly characterize the large-scale microstructural features, a Gaussian image pyramid is built for each 2D exemplar. Local morphology patterns are collected from the Gaussian image pyramids, and then they serve as the training data to embed the 2D morphological statistics into feed-forward neural networks at multiple length levels. By using a specially-developed morphology integration scheme, the 3D morphological statistics at different levels can be inferred from the statistics-informed neural networks. Gibbs sampling is adopted to hierarchically reconstruct 3D microstructures by using multi-level 3D morphological statistics, where the large-scale, regional and local morphological patterns are statistically generated and successively added to the same 3D random field. The proposed method is tested on a series of porous media with distinct morphologies, and the statistical equivalence between the reconstructed and the real microstructures is systematically evaluated by comparing morphological descriptors and transport properties. The results demonstrate that the proposed 2D-to-3D microstructure reconstruction method is a universal and efficient approach to generating morphologically and physically realistic samples of porous media.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimators For Derivative-Free Optimization Under Uncertainty

Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications; however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest. Optimization under uncertainty (OUU) deals with this endeavor and requires uncertainty quantification analyses at several design locations; i.e., its overall computational cost is proportional to the cost of performing a forward uncertainty analysis at each design location. An OUU workflow has two main components: an inner loop strategy for the computation of statistics of the quantity of interest, and an outer loop optimization strategy tasked with finding the optimal design, given a merit function based on the inner loop statistics. Here, in this work, we propose to alleviate the cost of the inner loop uncertainty analysis by leveraging the so-called multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, which is able to allocate resources over multiple models with varying accuracy and cost. The resource allocation problem in MLMC is formulated by minimizing the computational cost given a target variance for the estimator. We consider MLMC estimators for statistics usually employed in OUU workflows and solve the corresponding allocation problem. For the outer loop, we consider a derivative-free optimization strategy implemented in the SNOWPAC library; our novel strategy is implemented and released in the Dakota software toolkit. We discuss several numerical test cases to showcase the features and performance of our approach with respect to its Monte Carlo single fidelity counterpart.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Frequency Domain Methodology for Quantitative Evaluation of Diffuse Wavefield With Applications to Seismic Imaging

Abstract Ambient Noise Imaging (ANI) of subsurface structures relies on seismic interferometry of diffuse seismic wavefields. However, the lack of effective methods to quantify and identify highly diffuse waves hampers applications of ANI, particularly in evaluating seismic attenuation and monitoring structural changes with high temporal resolution. Conventional ANI approaches require data normalization, which effectively suppresses the non‐diffuse component with large amplitude but also results in significant loss of amplitude and phase information in the continuous seismic records. In this study, we propose a frequency domain method to quantitatively evaluate the degree of diffuseness of seismic wavefields by analyzing their statistical characteristics of modal amplitudes for stationarity and randomness. Tests on synthetic waveform and field nodal records show that the proposed method can effectively distinguish between diffuse and non‐diffuse waveforms for either single‐ or three‐component data. As an application, we identify a 60‐s‐long diffuse coda of a local M 2.2 earthquake recorded by a dense nodal array on the San Jacinto Fault Zone, and successfully extract high‐quality dispersion curve andQ‐value without performing data normalization. These results are consistent with those obtained by conventional methods that assess the correlation between coherency and the Green's function, and by modeling ballistic waves generated by road traffic. Our proposed method can advance the imaging of subsurface velocity and attenuation structures as well as monitoring temporal changes for scientific studies and engineering applications.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

coloring v.1.0

SAND2024-02435O The software coloring allows applications written in the C++ language to generate publication-quality 2D plots. Its functionality is similar to Microsoft Excel's chart functionality or the Python language's matplotlib package. The value of coloring is that it is written purely in C++ and thus can be compiled on systems where Python is not available and linked into high performance computing software. For drawing shapes onto an image, coloring uses the mathematical definition of quadratic Bezier splines and uses Newton's method to search for the closest point on a spline to a given query point. This is then used to do accurate sub-pixel sampling to get clean, non-pixelated images. For working with the actual plot data, coloring has basic statistical methods such as finding maxima and minima as well as axis scaling such as logarithms. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Ibanez, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using National-Scale Data to Inform Coal Power Plant Redevelopment and Coal Community Revitalization Planning

In the United States, individual coal plants have high variation in their construction and operation. Coal plants commonly have multiple units, with different commissioning ages, operational position, and maintenance conditions – even multiple fuels. These units may be in changing states of utilization, with variation in productivity depending on economic contexts. Coal plants themselves may be temporarily offline, mothballed, retired, or decommissioned due to owner/operator portfolios or market conditions, and the current posture of the plant may be difficult to ascertain without local news sources (Tarekegne et al. 2021). Anticipated dates of plant closures are prospectively represented to regulators and to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), but may also experience uncertainty due to the engineering, environmental, economic and social complexity of closing a very large power plant. As noted in this report, closure of the first unit to the last within a single plant may span more than 20 years. Yet tracking and predicting the position of our nation’s coal fleets on a national scale is deeply important. In developing a case for federal datasets and an approach to building and curating these data, this report identified that data must have high fidelity at the plant-level to be meaningful in aggregate. Plant-scale detail is also a match for its application: national priorities in federal investment range from economic revitalization for coal plant communities to maintaining reliable electric grid operations. This document is organized into a statistical review of coal plant retirements, past and prospective, in the United States; trends in the relationship between closures and existing federal investment programs for community revitalization; and potential methods for accelerating site redevelopment through advanced geospatial analysis based on federal data.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Part distortion monitoring in additive manufacturing using machining

In additive manufacturing, accumulation of residual stresses can result in severe part distortion from the desired preform shape. Current methods for in-situ part distortion monitoring in additive manufacturing typically require expensive sensors, or capital equipment, and require time-consuming post-processing to understand the shape deviation. This paper presents an in-situ method, in the context of hybrid manufacturing, for part distortion detection using machining of additively manufactured parts. As a surrogate, three test artifacts were used to represent different distorted geometries. The tool axis positions from the machine tool controller and the cutting power were monitored during a facing operation. Cutting power data was used to detect the tool entry and exit in the workpiece using a novel approach with power standard deviation metric. The workpiece geometry and distorted configuration was subsequently predicted for positional and rotational deviations to within 2 mm accuracy using synchronized tool position data with cutting power. The proposed method can be used in a hybrid (additive and subtractive) machine tool to periodically check part distortion in the additive build. The method is applicable for any additive process and is low-cost and computationally inexpensive.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Errors in Effective Cluster Interactions of Lattice Gas Cluster Expansions

The promise of lattice gas (LG) cluster expansions (CEs) is that they can describe a given system property to any level of accuracy since the orthogonal “cluster basis functions” span the complete space of available configurations. Such an approach can be constructed to an arbitrarily large surface of a finite number of distinct adsorption sites. Unfortunately, this is only true for the case of an ideal, fixed lattice decorated with components at precise lattice points (the lattice “sites”) with no distortions or relaxations subsequently allowed. Since most systems, and surfaces specifically, do not conform to such an ideal set of constraints, errors in LG CEs must be expected or CE convergence severely hampered. Beyond this, numerical errors in the provided data can complicate the proper construction of a truly predictive and/or physically significant CE. In this work, we show here how reliance on typical statistical tools like confidence intervals cannot be expected to provide an accurate representation of the uncertainty of effective cluster interactions (ECIs) in the CE due to the nature of the target ab initio data and the nature of CEs themselves. We develop a method for estimating these errors that does not rely on statistical assumptions about the model or data. We then use these ECI errors to quantify fundamental consequences on the uncertainty of ECIs in CEs built from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates have been allowed to relax in a typical manner and from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates are fixed in ideal lattice positions. We also quantify the effect of using a different density functional theory exchange–correlation functional, using these ECI errors to assess the significance in any deviations. In both cases, our method is shown to have remarkable utility in the quantification of errors in the ECIs of CEs. While we stick to the lattice gas convention in this work, the method is equally applicable to the Ising convention or, in principle, any linear model of sufficient complexity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗