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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Sparse non-Markovian Noise Modeling of Transmon-Based Multi-Qubit Operations

The influence of noise on quantum dynamics is one of the main factors preventing current quantum processors from performing accurate quantum computations. Sufficient noise characterization and modeling can provide key insights into the effect of noise on quantum algorithms and inform the design of targeted error protection protocols. However, constructing effective noise models that are sparse in model parameters, yet predictive can be challenging. In this work, we present an approach for effective noise modeling of multi-qubit operations on transmon-based devices. Through a comprehensive characterization of seven devices offered by the IBM Quantum Platform, we show that the model can capture and predict a wide range of single- and two-qubit behaviors, including non-Markovian effects resulting from spatiotemporally correlated noise sources. The model’s predictive power is further highlighted through multi-qubit dynamical decoupling demonstrations and an implementation of the variational quantum eigensolver. As a training proxy for the hardware, we show that the model can predict expectation values within a relative error of 0.5%; this is a sevenfold improvement over default hardware noise models. Through these demonstrations, we highlight key error sources in superconducting qubits and illustrate the utility of reduced noise models for predicting hardware dynamics.

open quantum systems & decoherence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiple Lattice Instabilities and Complex Ground State in Cs 2 Ag Bi Br 6

Metal-halide perovskites (MHPs) are attracting considerable interest for optoelectronic applications, with Cs 2 Ag Bi Br 6 one of the main contenders among lead-free systems. Cs 2 Ag Bi Br 6 crystallizes in a nominally double-perovskite structure, but exhibits a soft lattice with large atomic fluctuations characteristic of MHPs. While crucial to understand electron-phonon and phonon-phonon couplings, the spatiotemporal correlations of these fluctuations remain largely unknown. Here, we reveal these correlations using comprehensive neutron and x-ray scattering measurements on Cs 2 Ag Bi Br 6 single crystals, complemented with first-principles simulations augmented with machine-learned neural-network potentials. We report the discovery of an unexpected complex modulated ground-state structure containing several hundred atoms, arising from a soft-phonon instability of the low-temperature tetragonal phase. Further, our experiments and simulations both reveal extensive correlated two-dimensional fluctuations of Br octahedra at finite temperature, arising from soft optic phonons that are strongly broadened by anhamonicity, reflecting very shallow potential wells. These results provide new insights into the atomic structure and fluctuations in MHPs, critical to understand and control their thermal and optoelectronic properties. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rare events and Griffiths phases in topological quantum error correction

The performance of quantum error correcting (QEC) codes is often studied under the assumption of spatiotemporally uniform error rates. On the other hand, experimental implementations almost always produce heterogeneous error rates, in either space or time, as a result of effects such as imperfect fabrication and/or cosmic rays. It is therefore important to understand if and how their presence can affect the performance of QEC in qualitative ways. Here, in this work, we study the effects of nonuniform error rates in the representative examples of the 1D repetition code and the 2D toric code, focusing on when they have extended spatiotemporal correlations; these may arise, for instance, from rare events (such as cosmic rays) that temporarily elevate error rates over the entire code patch. These effects can be described in the corresponding statistical mechanics models for decoding, where long-range correlations in the error rates lead to extended rare regions of weaker coupling. For the 1D repetition code where the rare regions are linear, we find two distinct decodable phases: a conventional ordered phase in which logical failure rates decay exponentially with the code distance, and a rare-region dominated Griffiths phase in which failure rates are parametrically larger and decay as a stretched exponential. In particular, the latter phase is present when the error rates in the rare regions are above the bulk threshold. For the 2D toric code where the rare regions are planar, we find no decodable Griffiths phase: rare events which boost error rates above the bulk threshold lead to an asymptotic loss of threshold and failure to decode. Unpacking the failure mechanism implies that techniques for suppressing extended sequences of repeated rare events (which, without intervention, will be statistically present with high probability) will be crucial for QEC with the toric code.

classical statistical mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Classical Non-Markovian Noise in Symmetry-Preserving Quantum Dynamics

In quantum dynamics, symmetries are vital for identifying and assessing conserved quantities that govern the evolution of a quantum system. When promoted to the open quantum system setting, dynamical symmetries can be negatively altered by system-environment interactions, thus, complicating their analysis. Previous work on noisy symmetric quantum dynamics has focused on the Markovian setting, despite the ubiquity of non-Markovian noise in a number of widely used quantum technologies. Here, in this Letter, we develop a framework for quantifying the impact of non-Markovian noise on symmetric quantum evolution via root space decompositions and the filter function formalism. We demonstrate analytically that symmetry-preserving noise maintains the symmetric subspace, while nonsymmetric noise leads to highly specific leakage errors that are block diagonal in the symmetry representation. We support our findings with numerical studies of a transverse-field Ising model and a quantum error detecting code subject to spatiotemporally correlated multiaxis noise. Our results are broadly applicable, providing new analytic insights into the control and characterization of open quantum system dynamics.

decoherence↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

Severe local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Additionally, composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Driven, Site-Specific Weather Forecasting for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Preprint

Emerging grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have great potential to provide much-needed demand flexibility to electric grids while fulfilling their own control targets by co-optimizing smart appliances, solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and energy storage at buildings. To enable the optimal operation of GEBs, site-specific weather information—such as temperature, solar irradiance, relative humidity, and wind speed—is crucial; however, this information is generally unavailable or expensive to obtain. This paper develops advanced machine learning methods to provide precise weather forecasts for individual building sites using readily available weather station data. Support vector regression and artificial neural networks have been employed to learn the spatiotemporal correlations between the weather conditions at nearby weather stations and the individual building site. The proposed site-specific weather forecasting methods have been validated using 1-year actual weather measurement data collected in the Denver metro area. Results show that the developed machine-learning-driven methods can accurately forecast the temperature at the target building site 1 hour ahead with mean absolute error less than 0.72°C and a 48% improvement over the persistence method. Site-specific weather forecasts will improve the understanding of the microclimate effect and its impact on building energy consumption. This information will drive efficiency upgrades and adjustments of building control strategies to improve energy savings and increase flexibility in building loads.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Correlations between Molecular Structure, Solvation Topology, and Transport Properties of Aqueous Organic Flow Battery Electrolyte Solutions

Aqueous organic redox flow batteries (AORFBs) are considered promising technologies for storing energy generated from renewable resources. However, designing organic electrolyte molecules is limited by gaps between fundamental understanding of coupling between solvation structure and dynamics, and macroscopic transport properties like viscosity. Herein, we used molecular dynamics simulations to understand correlations between ionic molecular structures, ion clustering, and transport properties in 2,3-dihydrophenazine (2,3-DHP), a promising AORFB anolyte. We show that experimentally measured viscosity can be reproduced from simulations at relevant concentrations and that the asymmetric structure of 2,3-DHP leads to unique inhomogeneity in the solvation topology. However, order parameters and metrics need to be developed for better correlations over spatiotemporal scales, with careful consideration of the inhomogeneity of organic anolyte molecules. In conclusion, we show that the increased size and asymmetry of the anolyte leads to breakdown of assumptions within methods for determining ion transport mechanisms previously developed for Li-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially resolved charge-transfer kinetics at the quantum dot–microbe interface using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy

Integrating the optoelectronic properties of quantum dots (QDs) with biological enzymatic systems to form microbe-semiconductor biohybrids offers promising prospects for both solar-to-chemical conversion and light-modulated biochemical processes. Developing these nano–bio hybrid systems necessitates a deep understanding of charge-transfer dynamics at the nano–bio interface. Photoexcited carrier transfer from QDs to microbes is driven by complex interactions, with emerging insights into the relevant thermodynamic and kinetic factors. The heterogeneities of both microbes and QD ensembles pose significant challenges in mechanistic understanding, which is critical for designing advanced nano–bio hybrids. We used fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy to analyze charge transfer between a CdSe QD film andShewanella oneidensismicrobes. We correlated the spatiotemporal fluorescence data with an analytical model. Our analysis revealed two distinct distributions of QD de-excitation pathways. The characteristics of these distributions: 1) a faster transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 1 = 1.5 10 9 s - 1 ), with a lower acceptor number ( N ¯ a 1 = 0.03 ) and 2) a slower transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 2 = 4.1 10 8 s - 1 ) with a higher acceptor number ( N ¯ a 2 = 0.18 ). We assign these distributions to the indirect and direct electron transfer mechanisms, respectively. Our findings demonstrate how spectroscopic imaging can uncover fundamental electron transfer mechanisms at complex interfaces, offering valuable design principles for future nano–bio hybrids.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pressure Transient Analyses and Poroelastic Modeling of Hydraulic Fracture Dilation for Multiple Injections at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site

Our team has conducted electromagnetic (EM) surveys for the past six years to monitor hydraulic-fracture behavior at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS). The sub-horizontal orientation of a shallow hydraulic fracture at the DFPS provides uniform access to the fracture area for interrogation and data collection. Ahmadian et al. (2023) suggested a possible correlation between spatiotemporal changes in the flow rate, bottomhole pressure (BHP), and the observed surface recorded electric field at the DFPS. In this paper, we present the development of poroelastic forward models and pressure transient analyses (PTAs) to support the development of a multiphysics inverse model for these EM surveys. First, we conducted PTAs of the shut-in periods after six injections out of 10 to determine the fracture closure pressure (FCP) or the overburden pressure used in a poroelastic fracture reopening model. Second, we developed a finite-element poroelastic model throughout five injection cycles to include the effect of the cumulative injected volumes due to the previous injections on current fracture dilation in the presence of highly permeable unpropped and propped zones adjacent to the cohesive layer that models fracture reopening. Fracture reopening in this poroelastic model is based on a calibrated traction-separation response using the bottomhole pressure collected in two injection campaigns in 2020 and 2022. We used the outcomes of a previous simulation study of the primary hydraulic-fracturing stimulation to define the dimension of an unpropped fracture zone ahead of the propped fracture area. The PTAs led to FCPs consistent with those obtained using the injection data collected at the DFPS in 2020. Further, these analyses showed that at later injections, the fracture closure occurred at a later time with respect to the shut-in time, inferring the effect of cumulative injected volumes in previous injections. The simulation results show that considering the propped and unpropped fracture zones improves our poroelastic model in predicting the injection-well BHP. The numerical simulation results demonstrate a significant excess pore pressure near the fracture because of the preceding formation loadings by the previous injections. The obtained fracture dilation area and fluid pressure distribution provide a basis to improve the development of a multiphysics inverse model. Furthermore, in an iteratively coupled scheme, this pressure distribution can be introduced into EM models to render a holistic view of the causative mechanisms for the surface signal anomalies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanoadaptive strain and functional osseointegration of dental implants in rats

Spatiotemporal implant-bone biomechanics and mechanoadaptive strains in peri-implant tissue are poorly understood. Physical and chemical characteristics of an implant-bone complex (IBC) were correlated in three-dimensional space (along the length and around a dental implant) to gather insights into time related integration of the implant with the cortical portion of a jaw bone in a rat. Rats (N = 9) were divided into three experimental groups with three rats per time point; 3-, 11-, and 24-day. All rats were fed crumbled hard pellets mixed with water (soft-food diet) for the first 3 days followed by a hard-food diet with intact hard-food pellets (groups of 11- and 24-day only). Biomechanics of the IBCs harvested from rats at each time point was evaluated by performing mechanical testing in situ in tandem with X-ray imaging. The effect of physical association (contact area) of a loaded implant with adapting peri-implant tissue, and resulting strain within was mapped by using digital volume correlation (DVC) technique. The IBC stiffness at respective time points was correlated with mechanical strain in peri-implant tissue. Results illustrated that IBC stiffness at 11-day was lower than that observed at 3-day. However, at 24-day, IBC stiffness recovered to that which was observed at 3-day. Furthermore, correlative microscopy and spectroscopy illustrated that the lower IBC stiffness was constituted by softer and less mineralized peri-implant tissue that contained varying expressions of osteoconductive elements. Lower IBC stiffness observed at 11-day was constituted by less mineralized peri-implant tissue with osteoconductive elements that included phosphorus (P) which was co-localized with higher expression of zinc (Zn), and lower expression of calcium (Ca). Higher IBC stiffness at 24-day was constituted by mineralized peri-implant tissue with higher expressions of osteoconductive elements including Ca and P, and lower expressions of Zn. These spatiotemporal correlative maps of peri-implant tissue architecture, heterogeneous distribution of mineral density, and elemental colocalization underscore mechanoadaptive physicochemical properties of peri-implant tissue that facilitate functional osseointegration of an implant. These results provided insights into 1) plausible "prescription" of mechanical loads as an osteoinductive "therapeutic dose" to encourage osteoconductive elements in the peri-implant tissue that would facilitate functional osseointegration of the implant; 2) a "critical temporal window" between 3 and 11 days, and perhaps it is this acute phase during which key candidate regenerative molecules can be harnessed to accelerate osseointegration of an implant under load.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative spatiotemporal mapping of thermal runaway propagation rates in lithium-ion cells using cross-correlated Gabor filtering

Abuse testing of lithium-ion batteries is widely performed in order to develop new safety standards and strategies. However, testing methodologies are not standardised across the research community, especially with failure mechanisms being inherently difficult to reproduce. High-speed X-ray radiography is proven to be a valuable tool to capture events occurring during cell failure, but the observations made remain largely qualitative. We have therefore developed a robust image processing toolbox that can quantify, for the first time, the rate of propagation of battery failure mechanisms revealed by high-speed X-ray radiography. Using Gabor filter, the toolbox selectively tracks the electrode structure at the onset of failure. This facilitated the estimation of the displacement of electrodes undergoing abuse via nail penetration, and also the tracking of objects, such as the nail, as it propagates through a cell. Further, by cross-correlating the Gabor signals, we have produced practical, illustrative spatiotemporal maps of the failure events. From these, we can quantify the propagation rates of electrode displacement prior to the onset of thermal runaway. The highest recorded acceleration (≈514 mm s -2 ) was when a nail penetrated a cell radially (perpendicular to the electrodes) as opposed to axially (parallel to the electrodes). The initiation of thermal runaway was also resolved in combination with electrode displacement, which occurred at a lower acceleration (≈108 mm s -2 ). Our assistive toolbox can also be used to study other types of failure mechanisms, extracting otherwise unattainable kinetic data. Ultimately, this tool can be used to not only validate existing theoretical mechanical models, but also standardise battery failure testing procedures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

CubeSat constellations provide enhanced crop phenology and digital agricultural insights using daily leaf area index retrievals

Satellite remote sensing has great potential to deliver on the promise of a data-driven agricultural revolution, with emerging space-based platforms providing spatiotemporal insights into precision-level attributes such as crop water use, vegetation health and condition and crop response to management practices. Using a harmonized collection of high-resolution Planet CubeSat, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8 and additional coarser resolution imagery from MODIS and VIIRS, we exploit a multi-satellite data fusion and machine learning approach to deliver a radiometrically calibrated and gap-filled time-series of daily leaf area index (LAI) at an unprecedented spatial resolution of 3 m. The insights available from such high-resolution CubeSat-based LAI data are demonstrated through tracking the growth cycle of a maize crop and identifying observable within-field spatial and temporal variations across key phenological stages. Daily LAI retrievals peaked at the tasseling stage, demonstrating their value for fertilizer and irrigation scheduling. An evaluation of satellite-based retrievals against field-measured LAI data collected from both rain-fed and irrigated fields shows high correlation and captures the spatiotemporal development of intra- and inter-field variations. Novel agricultural insights related to individual vegetative and reproductive growth stages were obtained, showcasing the capacity for new high-resolution CubeSat platforms to deliver actionable intelligence for precision agricultural and related applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Subsurface Fracture Evolution Dynamics Using Time‐Lapse Full Waveform Inversion of Continuous Active‐Source Seismic Monitoring Data

Abstract Predicting the behavior, geometry, and flow properties of subsurface fractures remains a challenging problem. Seismic models that can characterize fractures usually suffer from low spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we develop a correlative double‐difference time‐lapse full waveform inversion of continuous active source seismic monitoring data for determining high‐spatiotemporal‐resolution time‐lapse V p models of in‐situ fracture evolution at a shallow contamination site in Wyoming, USA. Assisted by rock physics modeling, we find that (a) rapidly increasing pore pressure initializes and grows the fracture, increasing the porosity slightly (from ∼13.7% to ∼14.6%) in the tight clay formation, thus decreasing V p (∼50 m/s); (b) the fluid injection continues decreasing V p , likely through the introduction of gas bubbles in the injectate; and (c) final V p reductions reach over ∼150 m/s due to a posited ∼4.5% gas saturation. Our results demonstrate that high‐resolution V p changes are indicative of mechanical and fluid changes within the fracture zone during hydrofracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Thermal Coupling in VO 2 Device Arrays

Correlated oxides such as VO 2 exhibit an electrically driven insulator–metal transition (IMT) that underlies their promise for neuromorphic and memory devices. Yet the IMT is not a uniform bulk process but a spatiotemporal phenomenon in which local heating nucleates filaments, contracts or dissolves them with the electric field, and couples to the environment. In this work, we directly image the VO 2 IMT dynamics by mid-wave infrared, thermography synchronized with electrical transport, resolving device temperature with micrometer spatial and microsecond temporal resolution. At the single-device level, we capture the full cycle of filament nucleation, contraction, and relaxation during current/voltage-driven resistive switching. At the array level, we show that heat propagates across etched gaps with an effective length scale of ∼131 µm, enabling cooperative behaviors among electrically isolated devices. Short-range distanced devices exhibit mutual filament attraction and sequential dissolution, while long-range distanced devices differentiate into distinct roles: drivers that initiate switching, cooperative responders that undergo assisted self-oscillations, and passive reporters that record the thermal field. Furthermore, these results reframe thermal crosstalk, long regarded as parasitic, as an intrinsic coupling channel and design principle for organizing collective switching behaviors, with direct implications for emergent circuit functionality in neuromorphic and unconventional computing architectures.

coupling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic phase transitions of nematic order in magnetic helices

A nematic phase lacks translation order but has orientational order. Nematic phases have been discovered in a variety of systems, including liquid crystals, correlated materials, and superconductors. Here, we report on a magnetic nematic phase, where the basis components are composed of magnetic helices. We directly probed the order parameters associated with the magnetic helices using resonant soft x-ray scattering and find two distinct nematic phases with complex spatiotemporal signatures. Using x-ray correlation spectroscopy, we find that near the phase boundary between the two nematic phases, fluctuations coexist on multiple disparate timescales. Our micromagnetic simulations and density functional theory calculations show that the fluctuations occur concomitantly with a reorientation of the magnetic helices, indicating spontaneous symmetry breaking and the emergence of additional degrees of freedom. Our results provide a framework for characterizing exotic phases that can be extended to a broad class of physical systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Correct Climate Projection Biases

The fidelity of climate projections is often undermined by biases in climate models due to their simplification or misrepresentation of unresolved climate processes. While various bias correction methods have been developed to post-process model outputs to match observations, existing approaches usually focus on limited, low-order statistics, or break either the spatiotemporal consistency of the target variable, or its dependency upon model resolved dynamics. We develop a Regularized Adversarial Domain Adaptation (RADA) methodology to overcome these deficiencies, and enhance efficient identification and correction of climate model biases. Instead of pre-assuming the spatiotemporal characteristics of model biases, we apply discriminative neural networks to distinguish historical climate simulation samples and observation samples. The evidences based on which the discriminative neural networks make distinctions are applied to train the domain adaptation neural networks to bias correct climate simulations. We regularize the domain adaptation neural networks using cycle-consistent statistical and dynamical constraints. An application to daily precipitation projection over the contiguous United States shows that our methodology can correct all the considered moments of daily precipitation at approximately $1^\circ$ resolution, ensures spatiotemporal consistency and inter-field correlations, and can discriminate between different dynamical conditions. Our methodology offers a powerful tool for disentangling model parameterization biases from their interactions with the chaotic evolution of climate dynamics, opening a novel avenue toward big-data enhanced climate predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗