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The Impact of New Trends in Satellite Launches on Orbital Debris Environment

The main goal of this study is to examine the impact of new trends in satellite launch activities on the orbital debris environment and collision risk. Starting from the launch of the first artificial satellite in 1957, space borne technology has become an indispensable part of our lives. More than 6,000 satellites have been launched into Earth orbit. Though the annual number of satellites launched stayed flat for many decades, the trend has recently changed. The satellite market has been undergoing a major evolution with new space companies replacing the traditional approach of deploying a few large, complex and costly satellites with an approach to use a multitude of smaller, less complex and cheaper satellites. This new approach creates a sharp increase in the number of satellites and so the historic trends are no longer representative. As a foundation for this study, a scenario for satellite deployments based on the publicly announced future satellite missions has been developed. These constellation-deploying companies include, but are not limited to, Blacksky, CICERO, EROS, Landmapper, Leosat, Northstar, O3b, OmniEarth, OneWeb, Orbcomm, OuterNet, PlanetIQ, Planet Labs, Radarsat, RapidEye Next Generation, Sentinel, Skybox, SpaceX, and Spire. Information such as the annual number of launches, the number of orbital planes to be used by the constellation, as well as apogee, perigee, inclination, spacecraft mass and area were included or approximated. Besides the production of satellites, a widespread ongoing effort to enhance orbital injection capabilities will allow delivery of more spacecraft more accurately into Earth orbits. A long list of companies such as Microcosm, Rocket Lab, Firefly Space Systems, Sierra Nevada Corporation and Arca Space Corporation are developing new launch vehicles dedicated for small satellites. There are other projects which intend to develop interstages with propulsive capabilities which will allow the deployment of satellites into their desired orbits beyond the restrictions of the launch vehicle used. These near future orbital injection technologies are also covered in the developed scenario. Using the above-mentioned background information, this study aims to examine how the orbital debris environment will be affected from the new dynamics of the emerging space markets. We developed a simulation tool that is capable of propagating the objects in a given deployment scenario with variable-sized time-steps as small as one second. Over the course of the run, the software also detects collisions; additional debris objects are then created according to the NASA breakup model and are fed back into the simulation framework. Examining the simulation results, the total number of particles to accumulate in different orbits can be monitored and the number of conjunctions can be tracked to assess the collision risks. The simulation makes it possible to follow the short- and long-term effects of a particular satellite or constellation on the space environment. Likewise, the effects of changes in the debris environment on a particular satellite or constellation can be evaluated. It is authors hope that the results of this paper and further utilization of the developed simulation tool will assist in the investigation of more accurate deorbiting metrics to replace the generic 25-year disposal guidelines, as well as to guide future launches toward more sustainable and safe orbits.

New Space

Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts

Long-term projections of the space debris environment indicate that even drastic measures, such as an immediate, complete halt of launch and release activities, will not result in a stable environment of man-made space objects. Collision events between already existing space hardware will within a few decades start to dominate the debris population, and result in a net increase of the space debris population, also in size regimes which may cause further catastrophic collisions. Such a collisional cascading will ultimately lead to a run-away situation ("Kessler syndrome"), with no further possibility of human intervention. The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) has been investigating the status and the stability of the space debris environment in several studies by first looking into space traffic management possibilities and then investigating means of mitigating the creation of space debris. In an ongoing activity, an IAA study group looks at ways of active space debris environment remediation. In contrast to the former mitigation study, the current activity concentrates on the active removal of small and large objects, such as defunct spacecraft, orbital stages, and mission-related objects, which serve as a latent mass reservoir that fuels initial catastrophic collisions and later collisional cascading. The paper will outline different mass removal concepts, e.g. based on directed energy, tethers (momentum exchange or electrodynamic), aerodynamic drag augmentation, solar sails, auxiliary propulsion units, retarding surfaces, or on-orbit capture. Apart from physical principles of the proposed concepts, their applicability to different orbital regimes, and their effectiveness concerning mass removal efficiency will be analyzed. The IAA activity on space debris environment remediation is a truly international project which involves more than 23 contributing authors from 9 different nations.

Johnson, Nicholas L.

Orbital Debris Mitigation

Policies on limiting orbital debris are found throughout the US Government, many foreign space agencies, and as adopted guidelines in the United Nations. The underlying purpose of these policies is to ensure the environment remains safe for the operation of robotic and human spacecraft in near‐ Earth orbit. For this reason, it is important to consider orbital debris mitigation during the design of all space vehicles. Documenting compliance with the debris mitigation guidelines occurs after the vehicle has already been designed and fabricated for many CubeSats, whereas larger satellites are evaluated throughout the design process. This paper will provide a brief explanation of the US Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices, a discussion of international guidelines, as well as NASA's process for compliance evaluation. In addition, it will discuss the educational value of considering orbital debris mitigation requirements as a part of student built satellite design.

Kelley, R. L.

Orbital Debris: A Policy Perspective

A viewgraph presentation describing orbital debris from a policy perspective is shown. The contents include: 1) Voyage through near-Earth Space-animation; 2) What is Orbital Debris?; 3) Orbital Debris Detectors and Damage Potential; 4) Hubble Space Telescope; 5) Mir Space Station Solar Array; 6) International Space Station; 7) Space Shuttle; 8) Satellite Explosions; 9) Satellite Collisions; 10) NASA Orbital Debris Mitigation Guidelines; 11) International Space Station Jettison Policy; 12) Controlled/Uncontrolled Satellite Reentries; 13) Return of Space Objects; 14) Orbital Debris and U.S. National Space Policy; 15) U.S Government Policy Strategy; 16) Bankruptcy of the Iridium Satellite System; 17) Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC); 18) Orbital Debris at the United Nations; 19) Chinese Anti-satellite System; 20) Future Evolution of Satellite Population; and 21) Challenge of Orbital Debris

Johnson, Nicholas L.

Space Debris: Its Causes and Management

Orbital debris is internationally recognized as an environmental issue which needs to be addressed today to preserve near-Earth space for future generations. All major space agencies are committed to mitigating the growth of the debris environment. Many commercial space system operators have responded positively to orbital debris mitigation principles and recommendations. Orbital debris mitigation measures are most cost-effective if included in the design development phase.

Johnson, Nicholas L.

Space Shuttle Systems Engineering Processes for Liftoff Debris Risk Mitigation

This slide presentation reviews the systems engineering process designed to reduce the risk from debris during Space Shuttle Launching. This process begins the day of launch from the tanking to the vehicle tower clearance. Other debris risks (i.e., Ascent, and micrometeoroid orbital debit) are mentioned) but are not the subject of this presentation. The Liftoff debris systems engineering process and an example of how it works are reviewed (i.e.,STS-119 revealed a bolt liberation trend on the Fixed Service Structure (FSS) 275 level elevator room). The process includes preparation of a Certification of Flight Readiness (CoFR) that includes (1) Lift-off debris from previous mission dispositioned, (2) Flight acceptance rationale has been provided for Lift-off debris sources/causes (3) Lift-off debris mission support documentation, processes and tools are in place for the up-coming mission. The process includes a liftoff debris data collection that occurs after each launch. This includes a post launch walkdown, that records each liftoff debris, and the entry of the debris into a database, it also includes a review of the imagery from the launch, and a review of the instrumentation data. There is also a review of the debris transport analysis process, that includes temporal and spatial framework and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. which incorporates a debris transport analyses (DTA), debris materials and impact tests, and impact analyses.

Mitchell, Michael

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Vol. 13, No. 2

Topics include: debris clouds left by satellite collision; debris flyby near the International Space Station; and break-up of an ullage motor from a Russian Proton launch vehicle. Findings from the analysis of the STS-126 Shuttle Endeavour window impact damage are provided. Abstracts from the NASA Orbital Debris program office are presented and address a variety of topics including: Reflectance Spectra Comparison of Orbital Debris, Intact Spacecraft, and Intact Rocket Bodies in the GEO Regime; Shape Distribution of Fragments From Microsatellite Impact Tests; Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Mitigation Techniques for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts; and, In Situ Measurement Activities at the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office. Additionally, a Meeting Report is provided for the 12 meeting of the NASA/DoD Orbital Debris Working Group.

Liou, J.-C.

Current Characteristics and Trends of the Tracked Satellite Population in the Human Space Flight Regime

Since the end of the Apollo program in 1972, human space flight has been restricted to altitudes below 600 km above the Earth s surface with most missions restricted to a ceiling below 400 km. An investigation of the tracked satellite population transiting and influencing the human space flight regime during the past 11 years (equivalent to a full solar cycle) has recently been completed. The overall effects of satellite breakups and solar activity are typically less pronounced in the human space flight regime than other regions of low Earth orbit. As of January 2006 nearly 1500 tracked objects resided in or traversed the human space flight regime, although two-thirds of these objects were in orbits of moderate to high eccentricity, significantly reducing their effect on human space flight safety. During the period investigated, the spatial density of tracked objects in the 350-400 km altitude regime of the International Space Station demonstrated a steady decline, actually decreasing by 50% by the end of the period. On the other hand, the region immediately above 600 km experienced a significant increase in its population density. This regime is important for future risk assessments, since this region represents the reservoir of debris which will influence human space flight safety in the future. The paper seeks to put into sharper perspective the risks posed to human space flight by the tracked satellite population, as well as the influences of solar activity and the effects of compliance with orbital debris mitigation guidelines on human space flight missions. Finally, the methods and successes of characterizing the population of smaller debris at human space flight regimes are addressed.

Johnson, Nicholas L.

Human Exploration Science Office (KX) Overview

The Human Exploration Science Office supports human spaceflight, conducts research, and develops technology in the areas of space orbital debris, hypervelocity impact technology, image science and analysis, remote sensing, imagery integration, and human and robotic exploration science. NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) resides in the Human Exploration Science Office. ODPO provides leadership in orbital debris research and the development of national and international space policy on orbital debris. The office is recognized internationally for its measurement and modeling of the debris environment. It takes the lead in developing technical consensus across U.S. agencies and other space agencies on debris mitigation measures to protect users of the orbital environment. The Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) project evaluates the risks to spacecraft posed by micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD). HVIT facilities at JSC and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) use light gas guns, diagnostic tools, and high-speed imagery to quantify the response of spacecraft materials to MMOD impacts. Impact tests, with debris environment data provided by ODPO, are used by HVIT to predict risks to NASA and commercial spacecraft. HVIT directly serves NASA crew safety with MMOD risk assessments for each crewed mission and research into advanced shielding design for future missions. The Image Science and Analysis Group (ISAG) supports the International Space Station (ISS) and commercial spaceflight through the design of imagery acquisition schemes (ground- and vehicle-based) and imagery analyses for vehicle performance assessments and mission anomaly resolution. ISAG assists the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program in the development of camera systems for the Orion spacecraft that will serve as data sources for flight test objectives that lead to crewed missions. The multi-center Imagery Integration Team is led by the Human Exploration Science Office and provides expertise in the application of engineering imagery to spaceflight. The team links NASA programs and private industry with imagery capabilities developed and honed through decades of human spaceflight, including imagery integration, imaging assets, imagery data management, and photogrammetric analysis. The team is currently supporting several NASA programs, including commercial demonstration missions. The Earth Science and Remote Sensing Team is responsible for integrating the scientific use of Earth-observation assets onboard the ISS, which consist of externally mounted sensors and crew photography capabilities. This team facilitates collaboration on remote sensing and participates in research with academic organizations and other Government agencies, not only in conjunction with ISS science, but also for planetary exploration and regional environmental/geological studies. Human exploration science focuses on science strategies for future human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and beyond. This function provides communication and coordination between the science community and mission planners. ARES scientists support the operation of robotic missions (i.e., Mars Exploration Rovers and the Mars Science Laboratory), contribute to the interpretation of returned mission data, and translate robotic mission technologies and techniques to human spaceflight.

Calhoun, Tracy A.

Space Debris Modeling at NASA

Since the Second European Conference on Space Debris in 1997, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center has undertaken a major effort to update and improve the principal software tools employed to model the space debris environment and to evaluate mission risks. NASA's orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM, represents the current and near-term Earth orbital debris population from the largest spacecraft to the smallest debris in a manner which permits spacecraft engineers and experimenters to estimate the frequency and velocity with which a satellite may be struck by debris of different sizes. Using expanded databases and a new program design, ORDEM2000 provides a more accurate environment definition combined with a much broader array of output products in comparison with its predecessor, ORDEM96. Studies of the potential long-term space debris environment are now conducted with EVOLVE 4.0, which incorporates significant advances in debris characterization and breakup modeling. An adjunct to EVOLVE 4.0, GEO EVOLVE has been created to examine debris issues near the geosynchronous orbital regime. In support of NASA Safety Standard 1740.14, which establishes debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space programs, a set of evaluation tools called the Debris Assessment Software (DAS) is specifically designed for program offices to determine whether they are in compliance with NASA debris mitigation guidelines. DAS 1.5 has recently been released with improved WINDOWS compatibility and graphics functions. DAS 2.0 will incorporate guideline changes in a forthcoming revision to NASA Safety Standard 1740.14. Whereas DAS contains a simplified model to calculate possible risks associated with satellite reentries, NASA's higher fidelity Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been upgraded to Version 5.0. With the growing awareness of the potential risks posed by uncontrolled satellite reentries to people and property on Earth, the application of both DAS and ORSAT has increased markedly in the past two years.

Johnson, Nicholas L.

Space Debris Elimination (SpaDE) Phase I

SpaDE phase I has evaluated the viability of the SpaDE concept and shown that space debris can be mitigated in lower LEO orbits using gravity wave perturbations from relatively low altitudes.

Debris

Orbital debris minimization and mitigation techniques

Man's activity in space has generated significant amounts of debris that remain in orbit for periods of sufficient duration to become a hazard to future space activities. Upper stages and spacecraft that have ended their functional life are the largest objects. In the past, additional debris has been generated by inadvertent explosions of upper stages and spacecraft, by intentional explosions for military reasons, and possibly by a few breakups resulting from collisions. In the future, debris can be generated by collisions among spacecraft as the number of orbital objects continues to grow at rates greater than natural forces remove them from orbit. There are design and operations practices that can minimize the inadvertent generation of debris. There are other design and operations options for removing objects from space at the end of their useful service so they are not available as a source for the generation of future debris. Those studies are the primary concern of this paper. The most economic removal of objects is achieved when those objects have the capability to execute the necessary maneuvers with their own systems and resources. The most costly option is to have some other system remove the spacecraft after it has become a derelict. Numerous options are being studied to develop systems and techniques that can remove spacecraft from useful orbits at the end of their useful life and do so for the least mass penalty and economic cost.

Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.

Medium Earth Orbits: Is There a Need for a Third Protected Region?

The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) and the United Nations have adopted the concept of near-Earth regions which should be afforded protection from the accumulation of orbital debris. These regions are low Earth orbit (LEO), which extends up to 2000 km altitude, and geosynchronous orbit (GEO), which includes the volume of space encompassed by 35,786 km +/- 200 km in altitude and +/- 15 degrees in inclination. The region between LEO and GEO is commonly referred to as Medium Earth Orbit (MEO). Although historically a small minority of spacecraft have operated in MEO, the number of such satellites residing in or routinely transiting the zone is increasing. The question thus arises: should MEO be considered an orbital debris protected region? This paper first reviews the characteristics of space systems now utilizing MEO, as well as those anticipated to join them in the near future. MEO is then contrasted with LEO and GEO, both physically and pragmatically. Recommended orbital debris mitigation guidelines for MEO space vehicles are highlighted, and the challenges of spacecraft and launch vehicle stage disposal are recognized. Note is also made of the principal tenets of the United Nations Outer Space Treaty and of recent trends toward de facto partitioning of MEO. Finally, the efficacy and practicality of establishing MEO as a new protected region with regard to orbital debris is addressed.

Johnson, Nicholas L.

The Space Superhighway: Space Infrastructure for the 21st Century

This paper introduces a concept for space infrastructure developed with input from multiple U.S. government agencies called the Space Superhighway, which could support civil, commercial, and national security space activities. The Space Superhighway is a commercial-first space infrastructure that contains three primary components: regional hubs, a sustainable transportation network, and Earth-to-orbit logistics. Civil, commercial, and national security space sectors could use this common infrastructure to support missions such as satellite servicing, Earth science, and space domain awareness, among others. It utilizes a commercial-first, “infrastructure-as-a-service” approach which contains industry-owned and operated assets with government anchor tenants for commercial services, enabling extended mission lifetime, on-orbit repair, maneuver without regret, and debris mitigation and removal. The Space Superhighway is the space infrastructure needed for the 21st century.

space superhighway

The Space Superhighway: Space Infrastructure for the 21st Century

This poster introduces a concept for space infrastructure developed with input from multiple U.S. government agencies called the Space Superhighway, which could support civil, commercial, and national security space activities. The Space Superhighway is a commercial-first space infrastructure that contains three primary components: regional hubs, a sustainable transportation network, and Earth-to-orbit logistics. Civil, commercial, and national security space sectors could use this common infrastructure to support missions such as satellite servicing, Earth science, and space domain awareness, among others. It utilizes a commercial-first, “infrastructure-as-a-service” approach which contains industry-owned and operated assets with government anchor tenants for commercial services, enabling extended mission lifetime, on-orbit repair, maneuver without regret, and debris mitigation and removal. The Space Superhighway is the space infrastructure needed for the 21st century.

space infrastructure

NASA’s Space Sustainability Strategy: An Overview and a Conceptual Framework for Implementation

Space sustainability is crucial for the continuation of humanity's exploration and utilization of space. NASA recognizes the imperative of maintaining a sustainable space operating environment to safeguard the future of space activities. On April 9, 2024, NASA released its first part of an integrated Space Sustainability Strategy focused on the domain of earth orbit, with future volumes to address impacts of space operations on earth itself; cislunar space, including the Lagrange points and the lunar surface; and deep space, including other celestial bodies. This commitment extends to ensuring the safety of astronauts conducting operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), as well as enabling missions to the Moon and Mars. Moreover, sustainable space practices are essential for the uninterrupted operation of NASA's robotic science missions, which monitor Earth's changes and probe the mysteries of the universe. The strategy sets out a set of goals, the first of which is to establish a framework for assessing space sustainability at NASA, addressing the absence of a universally accepted framework with key metrics that promotes understanding of how metrics are interconnected. This framework will provide a basis for evaluating the sustainability of orbital activities, with metrics informed by input from the domestic and international space community. Objectives under this goal include defining key parameters affecting space sustainability, determining tolerable levels of risk, and annually publishing NASA's effect on space sustainability, including compliance with orbital debris mitigation standards. The subsequent goals build upon this foundation, identifying effective actions for enhancing space sustainability, incentivizing adoption of these actions through technology development and policy changes, and ensuring coordination with the global space community. An organizational change within NASA is also proposed to facilitate day-to-day coordination and accountability for space sustainability efforts. By pursuing these goals, NASA aims to strengthen the technical foundations of and continue to set an example for sustainable space operations. Regular evaluation of NASA mission performance in context with meeting sustainability objectives will ensure alignment with evolving challenges in the space operating environment.

Matt Forsbacka

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 13, Issue 4

Although NASA has conducted research on orbital debris since the 1960s, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office is now considered to have been established in October 1979, following the recognition by senior NASA officials of orbital debris as a space environmental issue and the allocation by NASA Headquarters Advanced Programs Office to the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) of funds specifically dedicated for orbital debris investigations. In the 30 years since, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has pioneered the characterization of the orbital debris environment and its potential effects on current and future space systems, has developed comprehensive orbital debris mitigation measures, and has led efforts by the international aerospace community in addressing the challenges posed by orbital debris. In 1967 the Flight Analysis Branch at the Manned Spacecraft Center (renamed the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in 1973) evaluated the risks of collisions between an Apollo spacecraft and orbital debris. Three years later the same group calculated collision risks for the forthcoming Skylab space station, which was launched in 1973. By 1976, the nucleus of NASA s yet-to-be-formed orbital debris research efforts, including Andrew Potter, Burton Cour-Palais, and Donald Kessler, was found in JSC s Environmental Effects Office, examining the potential threat of orbital debris to large space platforms, in particular the proposed Solar Power Satellites (SPS).

Liou, Jer-Chyi