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Analysis of Aerosol Type and Fine- and Coarse-mode Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing over Regions in East and Southeast Asia Based on AERONET Version 3 Data

Based on the particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) values obtained for 1020 nm from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 Level 2.0 data collected in five regions, namely, northern China, Northwest Asia, the Tibetan Plateau, southern China and Southeast Asia, we classified seven types of aerosol (viz., purely dust, dust-dominated, pollution-dominated, non-absorbing [NA], weakly absorbing [WA], moderately absorbing [MA] and strongly absorbing [SA]) in order to assess the spatial and temporal distributions of their constituents and the radiative effects of their fine- and coarse-mode particles. The fine fraction dominated in northern China and also played a crucial role on the Tibetan Plateau and in southern China and Southeast Asia, whereas the coarse fraction prevailed in Northwest Asia. Furthermore, the fine-mode aerosol on the Tibetan Plateau exhibited its maximum radiative forcing efficiency (110.3 W m–2) during high concentrations of SA aerosol. Also, the lowest values for both the radiative forcing and the radiative forcing efficiency in southern China occurred during summer. Finally, the various aerosol constituents displayed distinct spatial and temporal distributions in Southeast Asia, with the SA aerosol contributing approximately 20% of the total aerosol on the Indochinese Peninsula and the NA and WA aerosol forming the largest percentages on the Malay Peninsula.

Particle linear depolarization ratio

Analysis of Atmospheric Conditions Responsible for an Ozone Exceedance Event in Southeast Virginia on June 15, 2022

On June 15, 2022, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality monitoring site at Suffolk/Holland, a rural site in southeast Virginia, recorded its first ozone exceedance since 2016. An ozone exceedance day occurs when the daily maximum 8-hour average surface ozone concentration is greater than 70 ppb. On this day, it was 75 ppb. This event is also noteworthy due to the rapid increase in surface ozone between 6 am and 9 am EDT as well as the hourly maximum ozone concentration of 82 ppb that was measured at 1 pm EDT. In this analysis, we utilize various observational and model data to determine the atmospheric conditions responsible for this ozone exceedance event. The analysis is conducted in two parts: (1) an evaluation of the accuracy of the GEOS-CF and WRF-Chem model forecasts and (2) an investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the high surface ozone at the Virginia DEQ Suffolk/Holland monitoring site. Comparisons of model forecasted ozone time-height cross sections with measured ozone by lidars from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) at NASA Langley and NASA Goddard reveal that both models forecasted ozone reasonably well near the surface. Model and observational data reveal that an upper-level ridge was present over much of the eastern United States, with a broad anticyclonic circulation near the surface, resulting in north-northeasterly flow over southeast Virginia. Back trajectory calculations using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) and model data suggest that a low-level plume rich in ozone and precursor species originating from the New York City and New Jersey region was transported along the east coast between June 14 and June 15, arriving in southeast Virginia around 6 am EDT on June 15. In the early morning hours, this plume mixed down to the surface, elevating the background ozone mixing ratio as well as the mixing ratios of several precursor species. Other potential contributions are also explored and discussed. Lastly, the authors note that this work represents the analysis of the authors and not the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.

Daniel B Phoenix

New Particle Formation Events Over the Southeast Atlantic Coincide With the African Biomass Burning Season

Abstract We investigated the occurrence and evolution of new particle formation (NPF) events over the southeast Atlantic. The studied region is under the influence of the long‐range transport of aerosols and gases during the southern African biomass burning season, from June to October every year. Interestingly, NPF was observed to coincide with the African biomass burning season, although wet removal of pre‐existing aerosols is needed during these NPF events. Surface and airborne measurements show that these NPF events likely occurred in the upper region of the marine boundary layer, and the newly formed aerosols were further transported to the surface via vertical air motions. Using a box model, we predicted that a large fraction of these particles could grow to sizes related to cloud condensation nuclei. Our study shows that NPF can occur over the southeast Atlantic, and the African biomass‐burning plume likely contributed to the NPF occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis

Assessment of Regional Interconnections to Meet Southeast Asia's Renewable Energy Targets: Phase I of the Singapore – U.S. Collaboration

This report summarizes the results of a study of long-distance subsea electrical interconnections in Southeast Asia, conducted under the first phase of the Singapore-U.S. collaboration under the Net Zero World Initiative. In Phase 1, the Net Zero World team evaluated the current state of the renewable energy landscape in Southeast Asia; developed an open-source capacity expansion model using GridPath and evaluated several future scenarios including changes in interregional transmission; explored the technical feasibility of regional subsea interconnectors; and estimated socio-economic benefits of expanded regional transmission.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

E2C Cohort on Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast: Trade-Offs and Feasibility of Energy Sector Investment for Community Resilience [Slides]

The Energy to Communities (E2C) peer-learning cohort program provides technical assistance to groups of 15 community entities around a common energy topic over the course of 6 months. Every month, participants join a virtual meeting where they hear from experts and exchange strategies and best practices with their peers. This cohort, "Planning for Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast" focuses on strategies for entities in the Southeast to quickly recover from impacts to energy infrastructure caused by extreme events, such as severe weather and natural disasters. This presentation focuses on the tradeoffs and relative costs of different strategies to improve outcomes from these extreme events. The workshop is on May 21, 2026.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

High-Level Assessment of Grid Infrastructure in Southeast Asia to Support Regional Interconnections

The purpose of this slide deck is to provide an overview of the benefits of interregional transmission and to assess the specific transmission landscape of Southeast Asia, with respect to potential interconnections between Singapore and neighboring countries. This analysis also explores the distribution of renewable resources and electricity demand in ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as well as current and anticipated interregional transmission, in order to inform future interconnection plans.

ASEAN

2000 Southeast Florida Regional Travel Characteristics

The Southeast Florida Regional Travel Characteristics Study (Travel 2000) provided the needed observed travel information for developing planning tools for a three-county region of Southeast Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach). Data collection efforts began in December 1998 and were completed in September 1999. Travel logs were collected for 5,168 households, which included all travel by all residents for one day. In addition, approximately 10,000 bus riders were surveyed, and visitors were surveyed at 79 hotels. Trucking information was gathered from 848 commercial establishments using trucks. Workers were surveyed at seven major employment areas in the three counties.

1Hz data

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

The Variability and Predictability of Precipitation over Southeast Asian

The large scale atmospheric moisture budget, including precipitation, moisture flux convergence, and evaporation is described over southeast Asian. ne results are from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system for the period March 1981 - February 1995. On average, in the late spring and early summer season, precipitation is largely balanced by the atmospheric moisture flux convergence over southeast Asian; evaporation is also an important contributor. The seasonal variability of precipitation is best related to variations in the moisture flux convergence. On the monthly time scales, both the precipitable water and precipitation anomalies are most closely related to moisture flux convergence anomalies and less closely related to evaporation anomalies. The impact of the low-level jet (LLJ) on the strong low-level moisture flux convergence will be discussed. An ensemble of GEOS-2 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulation are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of initial conditions. We also assess the variability and potential predictability from these experiments.

Chang, Yehui

The Radiative Impact of Smoke Aerosols on Clouds in Southeast Asia

The impact of smoke aerosols generated from biomass burning activities in Southeast Asia on the total (direct and indirect) reflected solar radiation from clouds was investigated using satellite data. Narrowband measurements from UV to near-infrared wavelengths (from SeaWiFS and TOMS) were combined with broadband radiation measurements (from CERES). Using this information, we quantified how smoke aerosols change the cloud forcing spectrally and as a whole in the Southeast Asia region. In this region our results show that smoke is present over large areas of cloud-covered regions, and that the frequency of such occurrences is high in the boreal spring. Depending on the thickness of the smoke aerosol, the reflected solar radiation from clouds could he reduced by as much as 100 Watt/sq m, on average over the March 2000 data. We also found that the reduction in the reflectance of the clouds at 670 nm is large enough to lead to significant errors in cloud optical thickness retrievals from satellites such as AVHRR and MODIS.

Hsu, N. Christina

The East and Southeast Asia Initiatives: Aerosol Column Measurements

Airborne dusts from northern China contribute a significant part of the air quality problem and, to some extent, regional climatic impact in Asia during spring- time. However, with the economical growth in China, increases in the emission of air pollutants generated from industrial and vehicular sources will not only impact the radiation balance, but adverse health effects to humans all year round. In addition, both of these dust and air pollution clouds can transport swiftly across the Pacific reaching North America within a few days, possessing an even larger scale effect. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites (e.g., MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, etc.) and its evolution monitored by satellites and surface network. Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3,Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth- atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth's radiation and water budget. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); land surface reflectivity and emissivity; as well as ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Two new initiatives, EAST-AIRE (East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment) and BASE-ASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) will be presented and discussed their contribution to better understand the impacts of aerosols on regional-to- global climate, hydrological and carbon cycles, and tropospheric chemistry.

Tsay, Si-Chee

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen

NASA's East and Southeast Asia Initiatives: BASE-ASIA and EAST-AIRE

Airborne dust from northern China influences air quality and regional climate in Asia during springtime. However, with the economic growth in China, increased emission of particulate air pollutants from industrial and vehicular sources will not only impact the earth's radiation balance, but also adversely affect human health year round. In addition, both of dust and aerosol pollutants can be transported swiftly across the Pacific affecting North America within a few days. Asian dust and pollutant aerosols can be detected by their colored appearance using current Earth observing satellites (e.g., MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, etc.) and by sunphotometers deployed on the surface of the earth. Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Globally significant sources of greenhouse gases (eg., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning. These gases influence the Earth-atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play a role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, altering the earth's radiation and water budgets. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds; the hydrological cycle; land surface reflectivity and emissivity; and ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Two NASA initiatives, EAST-AIRE (East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: an International Regional Experiment) and BASE-ASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) will be presented. The objectives of these initiatives is to develop a better understanding of the impacts of aerosols on regional-to-global climate, hydrological and carbon cycles, and tropospheric chemistry.

Tsay, S.

Characterizing Aerosols over Southeast Asia using the AERONET Data Synergy Tool

Biomass burning, urban pollution and dust aerosols have significant impacts on the radiative forcing of the atmosphere over Asia. In order to better quanti@ these aerosol characteristics, the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) has established over 200 sites worldwide with an emphasis in recent years on the Asian continent - specifically Southeast Asia. A total of approximately 15 AERONET sun photometer instruments have been deployed to China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Sun photometer spectral aerosol optical depth measurements as well as microphysical and optical aerosol retrievals over Southeast Asia will be analyzed and discussed with supporting ground-based instrument, satellite, and model data sets, which are freely available via the AERONET Data Synergy tool at the AERONET web site (http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov). This web-based data tool provides access to groundbased (AERONET and MPLNET), satellite (MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS, and OMI) and model (GOCART and back trajectory analyses) databases via one web portal. Future development of the AERONET Data Synergy Tool will include the expansion of current data sets as well as the implementation of other Earth Science data sets pertinent to advancing aerosol research.

Giles, David M.

Impact Assessment of Biomass Burning on Air Quality in Southeast and East Asia During BASE-ASIA

A synergy of numerical simulation, ground-based measurement and satellite observation was applied to evaluate the impact of biomass burning originating from Southeast Asia (SE Asia) within the framework of NASA's 2006 Biomass burning Aerosols in Southeast Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA). Biomass burning emissions in the spring of 2006 peaked in MarcheApril when most intense biomass burning occurred in Myanmar, northern Thailand, Laos, and parts of Vietnam and Cambodia. Model performances were reasonably validated by comparing to both satellite and ground-based observations despite overestimation or underestimation occurring in specific regions due to high uncertainties of biomass burning emission. Chemical tracers of particulate K(+), OC concentrations, and OC/EC ratios showed distinct regional characteristics, suggesting biomass burning and local emission dominated the aerosol chemistry. CMAQ modeled aerosol chemical components were underestimated at most circumstances and the converted AOD values from CMAQ were biased low at about a factor of 2, probably due to the underestimation of biomass emissions. Scenario simulation indicated that the impact of biomass burning to the downwind regions spread over a large area via the Asian spring monsoon, which included Southern China, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. Comparison of AERONET aerosol optical properties with simulation at multi-sites clearly demonstrated the biomass burning impact via longrange transport. In the source region, the contribution from biomass burning to AOD was estimated to be over 56%. While in the downwind regions, the contribution was still significant within the range of 26%-62%.

biomass burning