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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗
NASA NTRS1976

Heavy ions from the Galilean satellites and the centrifugal distortion of the Jovian magnetosphere

The Galilean satellites constitute a potentially significant source of plasma to the Jovian atmosphere. The paper examines the distortion of the Jovian magnetosphere that would result from injection of ions at the Galilean satellites. The magnetic distortion produced is a localized perturbation near the equatorial plane, in contrast to the large-scale distortion produced by Jovian atmospheric ions. The study estimates the relative perturbation currents resulting from the two sources in terms of the unknown ion production rate at the satellites. It is found that the two perturbations would be of comparable magnitudes if the ion source flux at all of the Galilean satellites were comparable to the photo-ion escape flux from Jupiter's atmosphere. More specifically, ions produced by the Galilean satellites should be confined near the equatorial plane of Jupiter's magnetosphere in a sheet whose thickness is determined by a centrifugal scale height given essentially by the ion thermal speed divided by the corotation frequency.

Hill, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Estimating the vibration level of an L-shaped beam using power flow techniques

The response of one component of an L-shaped beam, with point force excitation on the other component, is estimated using the power flow method. The transmitted power from the source component to the receiver component is expressed in terms of the transfer and input mobilities at the excitation point and the joint. The response is estimated both in narrow frequency bands, using the exact geometry of the beams, and as a frequency averaged response using infinite beam models. The results using this power flow technique are compared to the results obtained using finite element analysis (FEA) of the L-shaped beam for the low frequency response and to results obtained using statistical energy analysis (SEA) for the high frequencies. The agreement between the FEA results and the power flow method results at low frequencies is very good. SEA results are in terms of frequency averaged levels and these are in perfect agreement with the results obtained using the infinite beam models in the power flow method. The narrow frequency band results from the power flow method also converge to the SEA results at high frequencies. The advantage of the power flow method is that detail of the response can be retained while reducing computation time, which will allow the narrow frequency band analysis of the response to be extended to higher frequencies.

Cuschieri, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

How Well do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space-Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part II: Building an Error Model Through Spectral System Identification

Satellite precipitation products, as all quantitative estimates, come with some inherent degree of uncertainty. To associate a quantitative value of the uncertainty to each individual estimate, error modeling is necessary. Most of the error models proposed so far compute the uncertainty as a function of precipitation intensity only, and only at one specific spatio-temporal scale. We propose a spectral error model which accounts for the neighboring space-time dynamics of precipitation into the uncertainty quantification. Systematic distortions of the precipitation signal and random errors are characterized distinctively in every frequency-wavenumber band in the Fourier domain, to accurately characterize error across scales. The systematic distortions are represented as a deterministic space-time linear filtering term. The random errors are represented as a non-stationary additive noise. The spectral error model is applied to the IMERG multi satellite precipitation product and its parameters are estimated empirically through a system identification approach using the GV-MRMS gauge-radar measurements as reference (“truth”) over the eastern United States. The filtering term is found to be essentially low-pass. While traditional error models attribute most of the error variance to random errors, it is found here that the systematic filtering term explains 48% of the error variance at the native resolution of IMERG. This fact confirms that, at high resolution, filtering effects in satellite precipitation products cannot be ignored, and that the error cannot be represented as a purely random additive or multiplicative term. An important consequence is that precipitation estimates derived from totally different sources shall not be expected to automatically have statistically independent errors.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS1991

Physical/chemical closed-loop water-recycling

Water needs, water sources, and means for recycling water are examined in terms appropriate to the water quality requirements of a small crew and spacecraft intended for long duration exploration missions. Inorganic, organic, and biological hazards are estimated for waste water sources. Sensitivities to these hazards for human uses are estimated. The water recycling processes considered are humidity condensation, carbon dioxide reduction, waste oxidation, distillation, reverse osmosis, pervaporation, electrodialysis, ion exchange, carbon sorption, and electrochemical oxidation. Limitations and applications of these processes are evaluated in terms of water quality objectives. Computerized simulation of some of these chemical processes is examined. Recommendations are made for development of new water recycling technology and improvement of existing technology for near term application to life support systems for humans in space. The technological developments are equally applicable to water needs on Earth, in regions where extensive water recycling is needed or where advanced water treatment is essential to meet EPA health standards.

Herrmann, Cal C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Physical/chemical closed-loop water-recycling for long-duration missions

Water needs, water sources, and means for recycling water are examined in terms appropriate to the water quality requirements of a small crew and spacecraft intended for long duration exploration missions. Inorganic, organic, and biological hazards are estimated for waste water sources. Sensitivities to these hazards for human uses are estimated. The water recycling processes considered are humidity condensation, carbon dioxide reduction, waste oxidation, distillation, reverse osmosis, pervaporation, electrodialysis, ion exchange, carbon sorption, and electrochemical oxidation. Limitations and applications of these processes are evaluated in terms of water quality objectives. Computerized simulation of some of these chemical processes is examined. Recommendations are made for development of new water recycling technology and improvement of existing technology for near term application to life support systems for humans in space. The technological developments are equally applicable to water needs on earth, in regions where extensive water ecycling is needed or where advanced water treatment is essential to meet EPA health standards.

Herrmann, Cal C.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Interstellar scintillation of extragalactic radio sources

Observations of 12 compact extragalactic sources were made at 2695 and 8085 MHz in order to detect weak intensity fluctuations caused by interstellar scintillation. Pulsar data are used to estimate the parameters of the interstellar medium needed to interpret the measured upper limits in terms of source angular diameters which are much larger than the scintillation cutoff diameter. It is shown that the observed source rms brightness temperatures are less than 10 to the 15th K and 10 to the 14th K at 2695 and 8085 MHz, respectively, making self-absorbed proton-synchroton radiation and high-brightness coherent mechanisms unlikely. If the sources are composed of 'point' components, each source can contain no fewer than 10,000 such components.

Condon, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Stochastic Estimation and Non-Linear Wall-Pressure Sources in a Separating/Reattaching Flow

Simultaneous wall-pressure and PIV measurements are used to study the conditional flow field associated with surface-pressure generation in a separating/reattaching flow established over a fence-with-splitter-plate geometry. The conditional flow field is captured using linear and quadratic stochastic estimation based on the occurrence of positive and negative pressure events in the vicinity of the mean reattachment location. The results shed light on the dominant flow structures associated with significant wall-pressure generation. Furthermore, analysis based on the individual terms in the stochastic estimation expansion shows that both the linear and non-linear flow sources of the coherent (conditional) velocity field are equally important contributors to the generation of the conditional surface pressure.

Naguib, A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Modified jet noise source model for twin-jet shielding analysis

An analytical method to estimate the influence that a jet of heated flow has on the noise emission from a parallel jet is presented. The shielding jet is modelled as a cylinder of constant cross-section in which the flow speed and temperature are uniform throughout. The jet noise emission is modelled by a point source with directivity imposed. The directivity term consists of: a self-noise term, a shear-noise term, and a convection factor. The self- and shear-noise terms each contain a basic directivity factor multiplying a spectral shape function. The various components are evaluated based on comparison with isothermal jet radiation experimental data. The modified source term is incorporated into the jet shielding model and compared to heated twin jet shielding data. The estimated spectra agree well except further downstream of the nozzle where peak of the noise spectrum estimated by the model lies approximately one octave below the experimental peak. The noise reduction estimated by the model agrees favorably with experiment in the near downstream region. This discrepancy is explained in terms of the shielding mechanism which is dominant far downstream.

Gerhold, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Water Vapor Tracers as Diagnostics of the Regional Hydrologic Cycle

Numerous studies suggest that local feedback of surface evaporation on precipitation, or recycling, is a significant source of water for precipitation. Quantitative results on the exact amount of recycling have been difficult to obtain in view of the inherent limitations of diagnostic recycling calculations. The current study describes a calculation of the amount of local and remote geographic sources of surface evaporation for precipitation, based on the implementation of three-dimensional constituent tracers of regional water vapor sources (termed water vapor tracers, WVT) in a general circulation model. The major limitation on the accuracy of the recycling estimates is the veracity of the numerically simulated hydrological cycle, though we note that this approach can also be implemented within the context of a data assimilation system. In the WVT approach, each tracer is associated with an evaporative source region for a prognostic three-dimensional variable that represents a partial amount of the total atmospheric water vapor. The physical processes that act on a WVT are determined in proportion to those that act on the model's prognostic water vapor. In this way, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation can be predicted within the model simulation, and can be validated against the model's prognostic water vapor. As a demonstration of the method, the regional hydrologic cycles for North America and India are evaluated for six summers (June, July and August) of model simulation. More than 50% of the precipitation in the Midwestern United States came from continental regional sources, and the local source was the largest of the regional tracers (14%). The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic regions contributed 18% of the water for Midwestern precipitation, but further analysis suggests that the greater region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significantly. In most North American continental regions, the local source of precipitation is correlated with total precipitation. There is a general positive correlation between local evaporation and local precipitation, but it can be weaker because large evaporation can occur when precipitation is inhibited. In India, the local source of precipitation is a small percentage of the precipitation owing to the dominance of the atmospheric transport of oceanic water. The southern Indian Ocean provides a key source of water for both the Indian continent and the Sahelian region.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

HF radar observations of Pc 5 field line resonances in the midnight/early morning MLT sector

The technique of F region sounding by HF coherent radar is applied to the study of field line resonances equatorward of a region of shear flow in the early morning sector. The motions were predominantly in the geomagnetic east-west direction, indicating north-south electric fields. These oscillations had pronounced peaks in their latitudinal power distribution. For the pulsation at 1.95 mHz, a latitudinal phase shift of 180 deg was observed across the peaks in all the look directions of the radar, and a longitudinal wavelength corresponding to an m value of 3 was obtained. For the 2.6-mHz pulsation, the phase shifts across the peaks had a variation with a look direction that indicated a significant longitudinal as well as latitudinal variation; for this activity, an m value of about 16 is estimated. These features are interpreted in terms of the field line resonance theory, and the possible sources of the pulsation energy are discussed.

Ruohoniemi, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Interactions Between Mineral Dust, Climate, and Ocean Ecosystems

Over the past decade, technological improvements in the chemical and physical characterization of dust have provided insights into a number of phenomena that were previously unknown or poorly understood. In addition, models are now incorporating a wider range of physical processes, which will allow us to better quantify the climatic and ecological impacts of dust. For example, some models include the effect of dust on oceanic photosynthesis and thus on atmospheric CO 2 (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). The impact of long-range dust transport, with its multiple forcings and feedbacks, is a relatively new and complex area of research, where input from several disciplines is needed. So far, many of these effects have only been parameterized in models in very simple terms. For example, the representation of dust sources remains a major uncertainty in dust modeling and estimates of the global mass of airborne dust. This is a problem where Earth scientists could make an important contribution, by working with climate scientists to determine the type of environments in which easily erodible soil particles might have accumulated over time. Geologists could also help to identify the predominant mineralogical composition of dust sources, which is crucial for calculating the radiative and chemical effects of dust but is currently known for only a few regions. Understanding how climate and geological processes control source extent and characterizing the mineral content of airborne dust are two of the fascinating challenges in future dust research.

Gasso, Santiago↗
NASA NTRS1994

ROSAT observations of X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei

We have observed sample of six optically faint, X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei with the Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT) Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC). These objects represents a sample of soft and hard spectrum sources; all were observed previously with the Einstein X-Ray Observatory. Included in this sample is EO132.8-4111, whose soft X-ray and ultraviolet flux distributions bear a striking resemblance to that of Mrk 841, but whose relative hard X-ray emission is much less than that of Mrk 841. The spectra are all fitted satisfactorily with single power-law models and their spectral indices (with one exception) agree with those estimated from the Einstein Image Propotional Counter (IPC) observations. Tests of short-term variability are carried out, with all sources showing constant count rates over the period of their ROSAT observations. Some sources do, however, show significant changes in count rate when compared to previous Einstein data taken a decade earlier.

Thompson, R. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Detection of interstellar DNC - Difficulties of chemical equilibrium hypothesis for enrichment

The J = 1-0 transition of DNC at 76.3058 GHz has been observed in emission in NGC 2264. Comparison with previous observations of HN(C-13) indicates that deuterium is enriched in DNC similarly to the enrichment reported for DCO(+) in this source. The DNC/HNC ratio is estimated to be about 1/24. The results cannot readily be interpreted in terms of chemical equilibria relating to the formation of DNC. It is suggested that the explanation must be sought in isotope effects on rates of formation of interstellar molecules.

Godfrey, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Launcher Systems Development Cost: Behavior, Uncertainty, Influences, Barriers and Strategies for Reduction

This paper will report on the activities of the IAA Launcher Systems Economics Working Group in preparations for its Launcher Systems Development Cost Behavior Study. The Study goals include: improve launcher system and other space system parametric cost analysis accuracy; improve launcher system and other space system cost analysis credibility; and provide launcher system and technology development program managers and other decisionmakers with useful information on development cost impacts of their decisions. The Working Group plans to explore at least the following five areas in the Study: define and explain development cost behavior terms and concepts for use in the Study; identify and quantify sources of development cost and cost estimating uncertainty; identify and quantify significant influences on development cost behavior; identify common barriers to development cost understanding and reduction; and recommend practical, realistic strategies to accomplish reductions in launcher system development cost.

Shaw, Eric J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Implementation of a Body Force Model in OVERFLOW for Propulsor Simulations

We present an implementation of a propulsor model based on body force method into the OVERFLOW computational fluid dynamics code to model turbofan engines and propulsors of similar type. The model estimates the forces imparted on the fluid by the blade camber surfaces as a body force source terms in the momentum and energy equations over grids that represent the rotor and stator of a fan stage. We tested the implementation on three cases: 1) Source Diagnostics Test (SDT) fan with R4 rotors, which has extensive test data on aerodynamic performance and rotor wake surveys, 2) A stand-alone Aeronaut TF8000 propulsor which is an off-the-shelf propulsor used on model aircraft and 3) The D8 aircraft model with TF8000 propulsors placed in a wind tunnel. Despite missing some of the features in the velocity profiles near the endwalls (i.e. hub and casing surfaces), the OVERFLOW simulations with body force model predicted area-averaged flow speed and total pressure rise through the SDT propulsor within a few percent of the LDV (Laser Doppler Velocimetry) measurements. In the case of TF8000 propulsor on the D8 airframe, the model under-predicted mechanical power coefficient by several percent of the wind tunnel test results when the horizontal force balance condition over the airframe is targeted by tuning rotor speed. By investigating the upstream influence of the rotor swirl, it was found out that the induced swirl velocity effects upstream were relatively small and they rapidly vanished before reaching one fan diameter upstream of the fan face. The body force model provided insights on aerothermodynamics and aeromechanics of boundary layer ingesting propulsor; these insights could not be obtained by using the uniform pressure jump model.

Propulsor↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Premature Mortality By Dust and Pollution PM 2.5 Estimated From Aerosol Reanalysis of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposure-response (IER) model to estimate global PM2.5-attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38–4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73–1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35–1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11–0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14–0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04–0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would potentially save additional one million lives. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing aerodynamic size from geometric size in accurately assessing the global health burden of PM 2.5 and particularly for dust. A use of geometric size in diagnosing dust PM 2.5 from the model simulation, a common approach in current health burden assessment, could overestimate the PM 2.5 level in the dust belt by 40–170%, leading to an overestimate of global all-cause mortality by 1 million or 32%.

PM2.5↗