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At least 37 records · Page 2

Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Predict Perovskite Solar Cell Electrical Metastability from Operando Photoluminescence Images in Accelerated Stress Testing

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells exhibit a metastable response to bias governed by coupled ionic–electronic processes, complicating the conventional reciprocity relation between luminescence intensity and device open-circuit voltage (V oc ). This limits the use of luminescence as a diagnostic for device screening or accelerated stress testing, motivating new approaches that can interpret photoluminescence (PL) signals under nonequilibrium conditions. From the artificial intelligence perspective, we develop an explainable deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, and an attention mechanism to learn spatiotemporal features from operando photoluminescence PL image sequences. The model achieves a mean absolute error of ±0.027 V in predicting open-circuit voltage transients and reduces extreme-tail errors by up to 78% compared to physics-based reciprocity calculations. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) provides interpretability by highlighting physically meaningful regions such as electrode edges and emergent defect features. From the engineering application perspective, this framework enables accurate, contactless prediction of device V oc and identification of degradation-relevant features during accelerated aging of perovskite solar cells. This approach demonstrates how explainable AI can enhance operando diagnostics and reliability analysis in photovoltaic devices under nonequilibrium conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Impact of Circumsolar Diffuse Radiation on the Numerical Computation and Forecasting of DNI

Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) uses the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) to predict solar radiation from the forecasted atmospheric gases, aerosols, and clouds. The Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law utilized by FARMS as well as other radiative transfer models assumes Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is a narrow beam only covering the sun disk. This assumption is interpreted differently in solar observations by pyrheliometers where the circumsolar diffuse radiation is accounted. This study precisely computes circumsolar diffuse radiation in all-sky conditions using a radiative transfer model based on a parameterization of precomputed cloud transmittance and reflectance. The model is implemented in WRF-Solar to provide day-ahead DNI forecast in the north America. The computation and forecasting of DNI is compared with the Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law to understand the impact of circumsolar diffuse radiation.

aerosols↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Forecasting Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance for Puerto Rico Using the WRF Model and NSRDB

Accurately predicting solar energy resources is a major challenge in integrating photovoltaics generation on the electric grid. Numerical weather prediction has been recognized by the solar energy community as a major approach to provide solar resource forecasts at various locations and for a variety of timescales. In this study, as a part of the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100), we develop day-head solar irradiance forecast data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 3 km and hourly/5-minute. The global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts simulated from the WRF model are postprocessed by a simple optimization method using satellite-derived gridded observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to reduce error and bias of the solar irradiance forecasts covering 2018-2020. The NSRDB contributes to improving the GHI and DNI forecasts and also offers the opportunity for an in-depth analysis to evaluate their accuracy over a wide range of Puerto Rico regions. Preliminary results show overall improvements of GHI forecasts up to 37% (DNI: 15%) for mean absolute error and 97% (DNI: 76%) for mean bias error by applying a postprocessing technique to WRF model output.

data models↗

Evaluation of WRF-Solar Cloud Forecast Using the NSRDB: Preprint

Cloud forecast is a crucial component in predicting solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Assessing cloud properties from the NWP models requires significant work due to the need for high-quality data, spatial analysis covering model extent, and detailed analysis of model performance for different types of clouds. This study presents an evaluation of the WRF-Solar cloud forecast using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). We propose an evaluation framework applied to a single model prediction as well as ensemble-based forecasts. Various cloud detection metrics are calculated when comparing with the satellite-derived dataset. The mismatched clouds from the WRF-Solar model are quantified using nine cloud types classified by cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The results based on the WRF-Solar forecasts covering the entire U.S. for the full year of 2018 shows mismatched cloud frequency in the range of 8% - 46% for thick and high-level (deep convective) to thin and low-level (cumulus) clouds.

cloud mask forecast↗

SunDial – An Integrated SHINES System to Enable High-penetration Feeder-level PV

The Project Team of Fraunhofer USA, National Grid, and IPKeys developed and conducted a pilot deployment of the SunDial system, a virtual power plant platform that enables high-penetrations of solar PV to be integrated into the distribution grid. The pilot was conducted over a 15-month period from August 2018 through October 2019 on a National Grid distribution feeder in Shirley, MA. A vendor-agnostic control platform (the “Global Scheduler”) optimally shaped the net load for a virtual portfolio of non-co-located DERs based on user-defined policy objectives. The goal of the SunDial project was to simplify and reduce the risk associated with the deployment of solar in high-penetration environments by: (1) Developing an open-source, vendor-agnostic dispatch platform that can be readily adapted to optimize control of DERs over a variety of use cases; (2) Developing auto-calibrating load and solar prediction methodologies that can be readily implemented and scaled to new deployments; (3) Developing a methodology to use demand-side management with traditional electrochemical energy storage to provide “load shaping” services in high solar penetration environments; (4) Using grid-scale storage to minimize short-term intermittency association with PV production; and (5) Deploying on the National Grid distribution system to gain experience on the potential for (and limits of) integrated storage with demand-side management.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers

Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms, based on five all-sky imagers (ASIs), are used to investigate the feasibility of ASIs to foresee ramp events. ASIs 1–2 and ASIs 3–5 can capture the true ramp events by 26.0–51.0% and 49.0–92.0% of the cases, respectively. ASIs 1–2 provided the lowest (<10.0%) falsely documented ramp events while ASIs 3–5 recorded false ramp events up to 85.0%. On the other hand, ASIs 3–5 revealed the lowest falsely documented no ramp events (8.0–51.0%). ASIs 1–2 are developed to provide spatial solar irradiance forecasts and have been delimited only to a small area for the purposes of this benchmark, which penalizes these approaches. These findings show that ASI-based nowcasts could be considered as a valuable tool for predicting solar irradiance ramp events for a variety of solar energy technologies. The combination of physical and deep learning-based methods is identified as a potential approach to further improve the ramp event forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cross-Cutting Metrology Tools for In Operando Characterization of Carrier Dynamics in Photovoltaic Devices (Final Technical Report)

Understanding the nature of recombination and its dependence on defects and interfaces is essential for engineering materials and contacts for higher V oc and photovoltaic (PV) efficiency. Time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) has conventionally been used to evaluate recombination, but not all materials are strongly emissive or otherwise suitable. Time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy is a pump – probe method that presents valuable complementary information, wherein an optical pump pulse photoexcites carriers within the absorber and the transient photoconductivity is probed with a terahertz pulse. Until now, experimental constraints have prohibited the use of terahertz probes to interrogate full device stacks, and measurements were instead made on exfoliated films or films grown on unconventional substrates. However, interfaces are critical to the behavior of photoexcited carriers in solar cells, and the substrates themselves often influence the film growth and bulk properties. Therefore, it is important to probe the behavior of PV absorbers as close as possible to their normal operating conditions. Here we have developed cross-cutting metrology that enable in operando characterization of carrier dynamics and recombination mechanisms in working PV devices. Through a combination of complementary non-contact TRTS and TRPL experiments and modeling, we have obtained key parameters including photoexcited carrier bulk lifetime and interface and back surface recombination velocities with greater precision and accuracy than can be achieved with conventional TRPL alone. By varying pulsed photoexcitation conditions, the contributions of interface and bulk recombination mechanisms can be determined. We have developed and refined this characterization approach by investigating CdTe PVs, which is a well-established technology but with significant margin for further improvements in efficiency. Results were published in Journal of Applied Physics (DOI: 10.1063/5.0064730) and Proceedings of the IEEE PVSC (DOI: 10.1109/PVSC43889.2021.9518559). After validating the approach, we have applied it to correlate recombination rates to processing conditions and material properties, including composition and defects as well as interfaces and surface treatments. Such feedback can inform processing and design choices to enable higher PV efficiency, not only for CdTe, but also CdSe x Te 1-x , CIGS, perovskites, kesterites, and future technologies. A perspective on predicting solar cell performance from terahertz spectroscopy was published in Advanced Energy Materials (DOI: 10.1002/aenm.202102776). The cross-cutting metrology tools developed here will enable determination of the locus and mechanism of performance-limiting recombination in thin film PV devices. This feedback can guide the engineering of PV devices with higher V oc and efficiency, thereby leading to reductions in levelized cost of electricity to meet the SunShot 2030 target of $0.03/kWh for utility-scale PV. Lower costs will enable rapid expansion of renewable electricity generation that is nearly free of carbon emissions. Reducing carbon emissions of the electricity sector is one of the most important solutions to climate change. The project’s specific focus on CdTe PV can benefit First Solar, the US company that is the global leader in CdTe technology, through both technology and workforce development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Knowing our Sun: data fusion for optimizing space weather forecasts

Outline: Space weather: model for predicting solar wind & polarity; Particle filtering: optimization with Monte Carlo; Simulation & observation: twin tests and real data; Back to Earth: independent work in inertial confinement fusion (ICF)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Baseline Performance Reference for Irradiance in PV System Applications

This report proposes the definition of a new baseline performance reference (BPR). The definition goes beyond existing standards pertaining to photovoltaic (PV) reference cells and devices to define the response under all possible operating conditions in the field. Field evaluations using BPR devices will be more sensitive to performance anomalies than pyranometers because they track PV system power output more closely. At the same time, they will be able to detect a broader range of performance anomalies than traditional matched reference devices, which might have matching defects. The BPR definition also opens the door to new practices in resource assessment and yield prediction. Solar resource data can be collected or modeled and validated directly as BPR irradiance, and PV system simulations based on BPR irradiance need fewer assumptions and less processing to obtain the effective irradiance on modules. As a result, lower uncertainty in yield assessments can be expected.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The R-Process Alliance: Abundance Universality among Some Elements at and between the First and Second R-Process Peaks*

Abstract We present new observational benchmarks of rapid neutron-capture process ( r -process) nucleosynthesis for elements at and between the first ( A ∼ 80) and second ( A ∼ 130) peaks. Our analysis is based on archival ultraviolet and optical spectroscopy of eight metal-poor stars with Se ( Z = 34) or Te ( Z = 52) detections, whose r -process enhancement varies by more than a factor of 30 (−0.22 ≤ [Eu/Fe] ≤ +1.32). We calculate ratios among the abundances of Se, Sr through Mo (38 ≤ Z ≤ 42), and Te. These benchmarks may offer a new empirical alternative to the predicted solar system r -process residual pattern. The Te abundances in these stars correlate more closely with the lighter r -process elements than the heavier ones, contradicting and superseding previous findings. The small star-to-star dispersion among the abundances of Se, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Mo, and Te (≤0.13 dex, or 26%) matches that observed among the abundances of the lanthanides and third r -process-peak elements. The concept of r -process universality that is recognized among the lanthanide and third-peak elements in r -process-enhanced stars may also apply to Se, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Mo, and Te, provided the overall abundances of the lighter r -process elements are scaled independently of the heavier ones. The abundance behavior of the elements Ru through Sn (44 ≤ Z ≤ 50) requires further study. Our results suggest that at least one relatively common source in the early Universe produced a consistent abundance pattern among some elements spanning the first and second r -process peaks.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network incorporating soft and hard knowledge constraints

Neural Networks (NNs) have been widely used in supervised learning due to their ability to model complex nonlinear patterns, often presented in high-dimensional data such as images and text. However, traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs (BNNS) could help measure the uncertainty by considering the distributions of the NN model parameters. Besides, domain knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be appropriately incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized Bayesian Neural Network (PR-BNN) model by incorporating different types of knowledge constraints, such as the soft and hard constraints, as a posterior regularization term. Furthermore, we propose to combine the augmented Lagrangian method and the existing BNN solvers for efficient inference. Furthermore, the experiments in simulation and two case studies about aviation landing prediction and solar energy output prediction have shown the knowledge constraints and the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs without the constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Constraints on flavor-diagonal non-standard neutrino interactions from Borexino Phase-II

The Borexino detector measures solar neutrino fluxes via neutrino-electron elastic scattering. Observed spectra are determined by the solar-$\nu_{e}$ survival probability $P_{ee}(E)$, and the chiral couplings of the neutrino and electron. Some theories of physics beyond the Standard Model postulate the existence of Non-Standard Interactions (NSI's) which modify the chiral couplings and $P_{ee}(E)$. In this paper, we search for such NSI's, in particularly neutral-current-like interactions that modify the $\nu_e - e$ and $\nu_\tau - e$ couplings, using Borexino Phase II data. Standard Solar Model predictions of the solar neutrino fluxes for both high- and low-metallicity assumptions are considered. No indication of new physics is found at the level of sensitivity of the detector and constraints on the parameters of the NSI's are placed. In addition, with the same dataset the value of $\sin^2\theta_W$ is obtained with a precision comparable to that achieved in reactor antineutrino experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Efficient prediction of concentrating solar power plant productivity using data clustering

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants convert solar energy to electricity and can be deployed with a thermal storage capability to shift electricity generation from time periods with available solar resource to those with high electricity demand or electricity price. Rigorous optimization of plant design and operational strategies can improve the market-competitiveness and commercial viability; however, such optimization may require hundreds of annual performance simulations, each of which can be computationally expensive when including considerations such as optimization of dispatch scheduling, sub-hourly time resolution, and stochastic effects due to uncertain weather or electricity price forecasts. This paper proposes a methodology to reduce the computational burden associated with simulation of electricity yield and revenue for CSP plants over a single- or multi-year period. Data-clustering techniques are employed to select a small number of limited-duration time blocks for simulation that, when appropriately weighted, can reproduce generation and revenue over a single year or within each year of a multi-year period. After selection of appropriate data features and weighting factors defining similarity between time-series profiles, the methodology captured annual revenue within 2.3%, 1.7%, or 1.2% using simulation of 10, 30, or 50 three-day exemplar time blocks, respectively, for each of three single-year location/weather/market scenarios and five plant configurations ranging from low to high solar multiple and storage capacity. When applied to multi-year datasets, the proposed methodology can capture inter-year variability that is unavailable from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets while simultaneously requiring simulation of less than a single year of data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗