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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-year analysis of physical interactions between solar PV arrays and underlying soil-plant complex in vegetated utility-scale systems

Concerns over the land use changes impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) development are increasing as PV energy development expands. Co-locating utility-scale solar energy with vegetation may maintain or rehabilitate the land's ability to provide ecosystem services. Previous studies have shown that vegetation under and around the panels may improve the performance of the co-located PV and that PV may create a favorable environment for the growth of vegetation. While there have been some pilot-scale experiments, the existence and magnitude of these benefits of vegetation has not been confirmed in a utility-scale PV facility over multiple years. In this study we use power output data coupled with microclimatic measurements in temperate climates to assess these potential benefits. Here this study combines multi-year microclimatic measurements to analyze the physical interactions between PV arrays and the underlying soil-vegetation system in three utility-scale PV facilities in Minnesota, USA. No significant cooling of PV panels or increased power production was observed in PV arrays with underlying vegetation. Fine soil particle fraction was the highest in soils within PV arrays with the vegetation which was attributable to the lowest wind speeds from the compounding suppression of wind by vegetation and PV arrays. Soil moisture and soil nutrient response to re-vegetation varied between PV facilities, which could be attributed to differing soil texture. No statistically significant vegetation-driven panel cooling was observed in this climate. This finding prompts a need for site-specific studies to identify contributing factors for environmental co-benefits in co-located systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraints on fifth forces and ultralight dark matter from OSIRIS-REx target asteroid Bennu

It is important to test the possible existence of fifth forces, as ultralight bosons that would mediate these are predicted to exist in several well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model. Recent work indicated asteroids as promising probes, but applications to real data are lacking so far. Here we use the OSIRIS-REx mission and ground-based tracking data for the asteroid Bennu to derive constraints on fifth forces. Our limits are strongest for mediator masses m ~ (10 -18 -10 -17 ) eV, where we currently achieve the tightest bounds. These can be translated to a wide class of models leading to Yukawa-type fifth forces, and we demonstrate how they apply to U(1) B dark photons and baryon-coupled scalars. Our results demonstrate the potential of asteroid tracking in probing well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model and ultralight bosons near the fuzzy dark matter range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generation and Life Cycle of Solar Spicules

The physical mechanism for the creation of solar spicules is proposed with three stages of their life cycle. It is assumed that at stage I the density hump is formed locally in the x-y plane in the lower chromosphere in the presence of temperature gradients of electrons and ions along the z-axis (the vertical direction). In this region, the density structure of quasi-neutral (n i ≃ n e = n) plasma after taking birth is accelerated in the vertical direction owing to the thermal force F th ∝ ∇n(x, y, t) × (∇T e + ∇T i ). The exact time-dependent analytical solution of two-fluid plasma equations is presented assuming that density is maximum at the center of the density structure and decays away from it gradually. The 2D density structure is created as a step function H(t) in time at the bottom of the chromosphere, and consequently, the vertical plasma velocity turns out to be the ramp function of time R(t) = tH(t), whereas the source term S(x, y, t) for the density follows the delta function δ(t) form. The upward acceleration a = a(x, y) $\hat{z}$ produced in this density structure is greater than the downward constant solar acceleration −g ⊙ in the chromosphere. In the transition region, the temperature gradients are steeper; therefore, the upward acceleration increases in magnitude g ⊙ ≪ a and the density hump spends less time there. This is stage II of its life cycle. In stage III, the density structure enters into the corona, where the gradients of temperatures vanish and the structure decelerates to zero velocity under the action of the solar gravitational force.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic reconnection in the era of exascale computing and multiscale experiments

Astrophysical plasmas have the remarkable ability to preserve magnetic topology, which inevitably gives rise to the accumulation of magnetic energy within stressed regions including current sheets. This stored energy is often released explosively through the process of magnetic reconnection, which produces a reconfiguration of the magnetic field, along with high-speed flows, thermal heating and nonthermal particle acceleration. Either collisional or kinetic dissipation mechanisms are required to overcome the topological constraints, both of which have been predicted by theory and validated with in situ spacecraft observations or laboratory experiments. However, major challenges remain in understanding magnetic reconnection in large systems, such as the solar corona, where the collisionality is weak and the kinetic scales are vanishingly small in comparison with macroscopic scales. The plasmoid instability or formation of multiple plasmoids in long, reconnecting current sheets is one possible multiscale solution for bridging this vast range of scales, and new laboratory experiments are poised to study these regimes. In conjunction with these efforts, we anticipate that the coming era of exascale computing, together with the next generation of observational capabilities, will enable new progress on a range of challenging problems, including the energy build-up and onset of reconnection, partially ionized regimes, the influence of magnetic turbulence and particle acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defect engineering in wide-bandgap perovskites for efficient perovskite–silicon tandem solar cells

Wide-bandgap (WBG) mixed-halide perovskites show promise of realizing efficient tandem solar cells but at present suffer from large open-circuit voltage loss and the mechanism is still unclear. Here we show that WBG perovskites with iodide–bromide compositions have an increased concentration of deep traps induced by iodide interstitials, which limits performance of WBG perovskite cells. We employ tribromide ions to suppress the iodide interstitial formation and thus reduce charge recombination in bladed WBG perovskite films of Cs 0.1 FA 0.2 MA 0.7 Pb(I 0.85 Br 0.15 )3. The 1-µm-thick opaque WBG perovskite solar cells have an efficiency of 21.9%, a small open-circuit voltage deficit of 0.40 V and a large fill factor of 83%. The efficiency of the best-performing monolithic perovskite–silicon tandem cell using this perovskite reaches 28.6%. Furthermore, the tribromide addition also suppresses light-induced phase segregation in WBG perovskites and thus enhance device stability. Encapsulated tandem cells maintain 93% of their initial efficiency after operation for 550 h.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-guided machine learning for improved accuracy of the National Solar Radiation Database

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides high-resolution spatiotemporal solar irradiance data for the entire globe. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) to compute the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on the solar radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. Physical and optical cloud properties are fundamental inputs to the PSM and are derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. This paper describes recent improvements to the NSRDB driven by physics-guided machine learning methods for cloud property retrieval. The impacts of these new methods on the NSRDB irradiance data are validated using an extensive set of ground measurement sites, showing significant improvement for all sites. We report on average, the mean absolute percentage error for global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance show reductions of 2.16 and 3.95 percentage points respectively for all daylight conditions, 5.92 and 17.39 percentage points respectively for cloudy conditions, and 9.00 and 22.59 percentage points respectively for gap-filled cloudy conditions. These new methods will help improve the quality and accuracy of the irradiance and cloud data in the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing drift velocity dispersion in MAPbI 3 photovoltaic cells with nonlinear photocurrent spectroscopy

Conventional time-of-flight (TOF) measurements yield charge carrier mobilities in photovoltaic cells with time resolution limited by the RC time constant of the device, which is on the order of 0.1–1 µs for the systems targeted in the present work. We have recently developed an alternate TOF method, termed nonlinear photocurrent spectroscopy (NLPC), in which carrier drift velocities are determined with picosecond time resolution by applying a pair of laser pulses to a device with an experimentally controlled delay time. In this technique, carriers photoexcited by the first laser pulse are “probed” by way of recombination processes involving carriers associated with the second laser pulse. Here, we report NLPC measurements conducted with a simplified experimental apparatus in which synchronized 40 ps diode lasers enable delay times up to 100 µs at 5 kHz repetition rates. Carrier mobilities of ∼0.025 cm 2 /V/s are determined for MAPbI 3 photovoltaic cells with active layer thicknesses of 240 and 460 nm using this instrument. Here, our experiments and model calculations suggest that the nonlinear response of the photocurrent weakens as the carrier densities photoexcited by the first laser pulse trap and broaden while traversing the active layer of a device. Based on this aspect of the signal generation mechanism, experiments conducted with co-propagating and counter-propagating laser beam geometries are leveraged to determine a 60 nm length scale of drift velocity dispersion in MAPbI 3 films. Contributions from localized states induced by thermal fluctuations are consistent with drift velocity dispersion on this length scale.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Study of Alfvén Wave Reflection from an Alfvén-speed Gradient Relevant to the Solar Coronal Holes

Abstract We report the first experimental detection of a reflected Alfvén wave from an Alfvén-speed gradient under conditions similar to those in coronal holes. The experiments were conducted in the Large Plasma Device at the University of California, Los Angeles. We present the experimentally measured dependence of the coefficient of reflection versus the wave inhomogeneity parameter, i.e., the ratio of the wavelength of the incident wave to the length scale of the gradient. Two-fluid simulations using the Gkeyll code qualitatively agree with and support the experimental findings. Our experimental results support models of wave heating that rely on wave reflection at low heights from a smooth Alfvén-speed gradient to drive turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

Abstract In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Caltech Lab Experiments and the Insights They Provide Into Solar Corona Phenomena

A comprehensive overview of two decades of Caltech experiments relevant to solar corona physics is presented. The extent to which the experiments scale to the solar corona, the basic configurations and operation, and the importance of the magnetic force J × B common to all the experiments is discussed. Summaries are given of the various configurations used, the main observations, and interpretations of these observations, including new models developed to provide these interpretations. Topics include observations and explanations for flux rope self-collimation, axial flows along flux ropes, eruption of arched flux ropes, strapping magnetic fields that inhibit eruption, the torus instability, and effects such as X-ray emission of a kink-driven secondary Rayleigh-Taylor instability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Physics-Based DNI Model for Advancing Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting: Preprint

Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is one of the most used quantities to quantify the magnitude of solar energy resource. The concept of DNI is often interpreted differently for ground measurements and solar forecasting by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias during evaluation of DNI forecasts especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To eliminate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to provide a physics-based solution of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The FARMS-DNI is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to forecast day-ahead DNI in the north America. By comparing with conventional predictions from WRF-Solar and satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB), we found significant improvements in our prediction of DNI.

DNI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Defect Physics for Efficient, Durable and Ubiquitous Perovskite Solar Modules (Final Technical Report)

Organometal halide perovskite solar cells have experienced eye-catching improvements in its recent few years. It serves as one of the most promising candidates to replace the currently widely used silicon-based solar modules. To implement its final step to the real application, functional longevity becomes the dernier continent to conquer. As a polycrystalline material, defect plays critical role in the efficiency and stability of the perovskite solar cells. Thus, the investigation of the defect physics of the perovskite layer is indispensable in this research field. However, hard evidence and a consensus are still lacking in terms of the specific nature of the defects and their effects on performance and hysteresis, and perhaps even more importantly, there is absence of fundamental understanding of the correlations between the defects and long-term operational stability of the device. A more fundamental understanding of the nature of defects in perovskite materials is of paramount importance to progress their efficiency and durability. In this work we propose in-depth studies of correlations of defects with performance and stability of perovskite solar cells. Our project aimed 1) to investigate the defects physics in perovskite solar cells, and 2) to develop a comprehensive understanding and physical model of defects and its influence on performance and stability of perovskite solar cells. With the support from program manager, Peter Lobaccaro, and the Solar Energy Technologies Office of U.S. Department of Energy, the project ends with impact achievements. Our research results have systematically provided strategies to analyze the influences of constructive molecular configurations to the charged defects in the perovskite lattices and developed in-depth understanding of chemical additive approach to improve the perovskite solar cell performance and stability. As history has shown us, control over defect properties of semiconductor materials is the key to achieving high performance and low cost devices. Therefore, the potential impact of unlocking the understanding and manipulation of defects in perovskites is great, enabling this technology to realize SETO goals. The research project is highly productive with 18 published papers in three years in top-level journals such as Science, Nature, Nature Materials, Nature Communications, Journal of American Chemistry Society, Joule, Advanced Materials, and Nano Letters. These works have drawn great attention nationwide with notable total citations over 700 times from 2020 to 2022.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗