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At least 37 records · Page 2

How Well Does the DOE Global Storm Resolving Model Simulate Clouds and Precipitation Over the Amazon?

This study assesses a 40-day 3.25-km global simulation of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Model (SCREAMv0) using high-resolution ground-based observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign. SCREAMv0 reasonably captures the diurnal timing of boundary layer clouds yet underestimates the boundary layer cloud fraction and mid-level congestus. SCREAMv0 well replicates the precipitation diurnal cycle, however it exhibits biases in the precipitation cluster size distribution compared to scanning radar observations. Specifically, SCREAMv0 overproduces clusters smaller than 128 km, and does not form enough large clusters. Such biases suggest an inhibition of convective upscale growth, preventing isolated deep convective clusters from evolving into larger mesoscale systems. This model bias is partially attributed to the misrepresentation of land-atmosphere coupling. This study highlights the potential use of high-resolution ground-based observations to diagnose convective processes in global storm resolving model simulations, identify key model deficiencies, and guide future process-oriented model sensitivity tests and detailed analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Scientist-in-the-Loop Data Analytics Framework for Intelligent Simulation Model Tuning and Validation

This project developed a scientist-in-the-loop data analytics framework for intelligent simulation model tuning and validation, targeting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its solar energy variant, WRF-Solar-BNL. Domain experts, such as climate scientists, depend on large-scale numerical simulations for knowledge discovery and decision-making, yet the complexity of parameter tuning and the disconnect between automated optimization and domain expertise pose significant challenges. We extended an interactive visual analytics framework that enables domain experts to observe and intervene in the computational steering process by identifying disagreements between the simulation model, surrogate model, and the expert’s domain knowledge. Using Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Process Regression as the surrogate model, our system allows users to probe parameter relationships, analyze correlation patterns, and adjust tuning parameters in real time. We developed use cases for solar irradiance forecasting through sustained collaboration with Brookhaven National Laboratory, resolving critical model configuration challenges and achieving meaningful reductions in prediction error. The project supported one PhD student, one MS student, and eight undergraduate students across three Data Science Capstone projects, resulting in one master’s thesis.

Dasgupta, Aritra [New Jersey Institute of Technolo↗

A comprehensive framework for validating simulation models of power system equipment using terminal measurements

Accurate simulation of power-plants is essential to the planning and operation of modern power grids. The current methods used to periodically check power-plant simulation models have many open questions about their limitations and accuracy. The research in this project explored using Monte-Carlo Experimentation (MCE) as a means for answering these important questions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Finding Hidden Patterns in High Resolution Wind Flow Model Simulations

Wind flow data is critical in terms of investment decisions and policy making. High resolution data from wind flow model simulations serve as a supplement to the limited resource of original wind flow data collection. Given the large size of data, finding hidden patterns in wind flow model simulations are critical for reducing the dimensionality of the analysis. In this work, we first perform dimension reduction with two autoencoder models: the CNN-based autoencoder (CNN-AE) [1], and hierarchical autoencoder (HIER-AE) [2], and compare their performance with the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We then investigate the super-resolution of the wind flow data. By training a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with 300 epochs, we obtained a trained model with 2× resolution enhancement. We compare the results of GAN with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and GAN results show finer structure as expected in the data field images. Also, the kinetic energy spectra comparisons show that GAN outperforms CNN in terms of reproducing the physical properties for high wavenumbers and is critical for analysis where high-wavenumber kinetics play an important role.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dynamics of streamflow permanence in a headwater network: Insights from catchment-scale model simulations

The hillslope and channel dynamics that govern streamflow permanence in headwater systems have important implications for ecosystem functioning and downstream water quality. Recent advancements in process-based, semi-distributed hydrologic models that build upon empirical studies of streamflow permanence in well-monitored headwater catchments show promise for characterizing the dynamics of streamflow permanence in headwater systems. However, few process-based models consider the continuum of hillslope-stream network connectivity as a control on streamflow permanence in headwater systems. The objective of this study was to expand a process-based, catchment-scale hydrologic model to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of headwater streamflow permanence and to identify controls of streamflow expansion and contraction in a headwater network. Further, we aimed to develop an approach that enhanced the fidelity of model simulations, yet required little additional data, with the intent that the model might be later transferred to catchments with limited long-term and spatially explicit measurements. This approach facilitated network-scale estimates of the controls of streamflow expansion and contraction, albeit with higher degrees of uncertainty in individual reaches due to data constraints. Our model simulated that streamflow permanence was highly dynamic in first-order reaches with steep slopes and variable contributing areas. The simulated stream network length ranged from nearly 98±2% of the geomorphic channel extent during wet periods to nearly 50±10% during dry periods. The model identified a discharge threshold of approximately 1 mm d –1 , above which the rate of streamflow expansion decreases by nearly an order of magnitude, indicating a lack of sensitivity of streamflow expansion to hydrologic forcing during high-flow periods. Overall, we demonstrate that process-based, catchment-scale models offer important insights on the controls of streamflow permanence, despite uncertainties and limitations of the model. We encourage researchers to increase data collection efforts and develop benchmarks to better evaluate such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fidelity Analysis of Complex Large-Scale Simulation Models of PEs (MARS) in Future Power Grids

With the proliferation of power electronic (PE)-based resources in the electric grid, there have been numerous different kinds of simulation models developed and studied to understand their dynamic behavior. Study of PE-based resources using each simulation model has its own distinct advantages and disadvantages. Therefore it is very important to carefully select the appropriate model for the evaluation of the PE-based resources. In this paper, one such effort is made to analyze the different types of models in the case of a multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS). The MARS integrates a hybrid photovoltaic (PV)-energy storage system (ESS) plant to high-voltage direct current (HVdc) system and transmission alternating current (ac) grid. The dynamic models are evaluated under different test cases varying the short-circuit ratio (SCR) and control algorithms. Recommendations are provided on the equipment study needs based on the analysis completed.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

Tropical Tree Crop Simulation with a Process-Based, Daily Timestep Simulation Model (ALMANAC): Description of Model Adaptation and Examples with Coffee and Cocoa Simulations

Coffee (Coffea species) and Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are important cash crops grown in the tropics but traded globally. This study was conducted to apply the ALMANAC model to these crops for the first time, and to test its ability to simulate them under agroforestry management schemes and varying precipitation amounts. To create this simulation, coffee was grown on a site in Kaua’i, Hawai’i, USA, and cocoa was grown on a site in Sefwi Bekwai, Ghana. A stand-in for a tropical overstory tree was created for agroforestry simulations using altered parameters for carob, a common taller tropical tree for these regions. For both crops, ALMANAC was able to realistically simulate yields when compared to the collected total yield data. On Kaua’i, the mean simulated yield was 2% different from the mean measured yield, and in all three years, the simulated values were within 10% of the measured values. For cocoa, the mean simulated yield was 3% different from the mean measured yield and the simulated yield was within 10% of measured yields for all four available years. When precipitation patterns were altered, in Ghana, the wetter site showed lower percent changes in yield than the drier site in Hawai’i. When agroforestry-style management was simulated, a low Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the overstory showed positive or no effect on yields, but when LAI climbed too high, the simulation was able to show the detrimental effect this competition had on crop yields. These simulation results are supported by other literature documenting the effects of agroforestry on tropical crops. This research has applied ALMANAC to new crops and demonstrated its simulation of different management and environmental conditions. The results show promise for ALMANAC’s applicability to these scenarios as well as its potential to be further tested and utilized in new circumstances.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Historical global Earth System Model simulations with E3SM's dynamic root module

This data package contains global-scale Earth System Model simulations run with DOE's E3SM Model. The package includes one set of simulations run in the default configuration and a second set of simulations run with the dynamic root module enabled. These two datasets can be used to assess the impact that dynamic roots have on Land Surface fluxes such as carbon and water. The outputs are provided here on a 0.5 x 0.5 global grid at monthly resolution. The simulations were run with atmospheric forcing from the Global Soil Wetness Project. We provide specifically here Gross Primary Production, Transpiration, relative root fraction per soil layer as well as Air Temperature, Precipitation and all the parameterizations used for the simulations. Our purpose for generating and analyzing these simulations was to assess the role that root dynamics and foraging for water has in the recovery timescale of ecosystems following climate perturbation. All data provided are in the "netcdf" format using standard CF-1 (Climate and Forecast) Convention. The data are broken up into 20 year chunks to facilitate easier read-in. The data are all machine readable using various software platforms including Matlab, NCO, Panoply and GrADS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Distributed Trust Model Simulator for Energy Grid of Things Distributed Energy Resource Management System

The evolution of networks into more distributed, self-reliant nodes has mitigated single-point failures that plagued traditional centralized networks. Applied to power grids, distributed systems can increase the integrity and availability of grid services while also offering a power management solution. However, while distributed networks provide scalability, security, and sustainability compared to centralized networks, their distributed nature makes them harder for anomaly detection and prevention. Incorporating a Distributed Trust Model (DTM) System into an Energy Grid of Things Distributed Energy Resource Management System (EGOT DERMS) allows grid participants to be characterized and their communication to be analyzed for possible attacks. A Trust Model simulator is needed to evaluate and improve the DTM System.Trustworthiness is calculated using a Trust Model. While many trust models exist, most only consider 2-3 matrices to evaluate trust. The TM proposed in this thesis uses a Metric Vector of Trust (MVoT) monitoring 17 parameters when assessing trust. Moreover, unlike standard trust models, the proposed trust model establishes a method to test the trust between various actors within the network and probe the trust model itself. Using a Trust Model Simulator, MVoT calaculations, initial values, and parameters are fine-tuned to achieve high-confidence message classifications and minimize false positives. The DTM System and Trust Mode Simulation Suite allow for distributed trust evaluation with a real-time classification of EGOT DERMS actors, providing additional security for distributed systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Earth System Model Simulations of Ameriflux sites using dynamic roots and dynamic leaf to root allocation

This data package contains point-scale Earth System Model simulations run with DOE's E3SM Model. The package includes four sets of simulations, one set of simulations run in the default configuration, a second set of simulations run with the dynamic root module enabled, the third set with dynamic leaf to fine root allocation, and the fourth with the combination of dynamic roots and dynamic allocation. These simulations were run in point mode a Ameriflux sites, US-MMS, US-Moz, US-Syv, and US-NR1. These datasets can be used to assess the impact that dynamic roots have on Land Surface fluxes such as carbon and water. The simulations were run with atmospheric forcing from the Global Soil Wetness Project. We provide specifically here Gross Primary Production, Transpiration, relative root fraction per soil layer as well as Air Temperature, Precipitation and all the parameterizations used for the simulations. Our purpose for generating and analyzing these simulations was to assess the role that root dynamics and foraging for water has in the recovery timescale of ecosystems following climate perturbation. All data provided are in the "netcdf" format using standard CF-1 (Climate and Forecast) Convention. The data are all machine readable using various software platforms including Matlab, NCO, Panoply and R.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Statistical Framework for Evaluating Rain Microphysics in Model Simulations and Disdrometer Observations

Abstract Statistical analyses of a large disdrometer data set and a diverse set of model simulations for convection using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were conducted, with the mutual goal of providing insights into precipitation formation and microphysical processes. We demonstrate that a two‐moment bulk microphysical model successfully captures the dominant observed modes of variability in rainfall related to rainfall intensity and raindrop size distributions. The model reproduced the general distribution of observed precipitation groups (PGs) derived from Principal Component Analysis. The multi‐variable analysis also uncovered some shortcomings in the model as well as limitations of the disdrometer data. The model solutions were constrained in their predicted drop size distributions (DSDs) due to the fixed DSD parameters assumed in a two‐moment microphysics scheme. A case study from the Mid‐latitude Continental Clouds and Convection Experiment field project demonstrated how model results can be used to contextualize the disdrometer observations which are limited in sample size, spatial coherence, and detection of small drops and low drop concentrations. The case study also showed that the spatial patterns of the statistically derived PGs revealed by the model are consistent with the hypothesized microphysical processes that determine surface rain DSDs. This work demonstrates how leveraging the strengths of observations and models together can improve our understanding and representation of rain microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monthly averages of ED2 model simulations initialized with airborne lidar structure, Jan 1981-Dec 2018, Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation and forest degradation (selective logging, fires, fragmentation) have impacted nearly 40% of the original extent of the Brazilian Amazon, and have markedly impacted forest structure across the region. To date, few studies analysed how shifts in forest structure from degradation influence the forest sensitivity to climate extremes, because of the complex interactions between forest structure and micro-environmental conditions. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out a series of simulations across the Brazilian Amazon using the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2), using observed forest structure derived from 541 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) and two scenarios representing forest recovery and expansion of degradation to investigate how shifts in forest structure impact ecosystem function under near-average and extreme climate conditions, as part of the manuscript Longo et al 2025 "Degradation and Deforestation Increase the Sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to Climate Extremes". This dataset provides the output results from the ED2 model simulations for the three simulations at monthly time scales, in NetCDF format. For all simulations, we used bias-corrected hourly reanalyses (WFDE5) for most meteorological drivers, except for precipitation, which was obtained from CHIRPS. The meteorological drivers used in the study span 38 years (Jan 1981–Dec 2018). The output results correspond to the last 38 years of simulation (one full cycle of meteorological drivers), in which ED2 simulations used static stand structure (i.e., the forest structure was held constant). The following files are provided:ED2_emean_Global_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Control simulation. The forest structure was obtained from the airborne lidar.ED2_emean_Global_R005_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l1f0.nc. This corresponds to the Degraded simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that expanded deforestation and selective logging across the Amazon.ED2_emean_Global_R006_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Recovery simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that completely halted deforestation and degradation, allowing degraded forests to recover for 38 years.We also provide file ED2_zones_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc, which classifies each grid cell into zones used in the reference manuscript: 1: Southeast. 2: South. 3: West. 4: Central. 5: Northeast. 6: North. 7: Northwest". Index 0 corresponds to grid cells excluded from sub-region analyses because they were dominated by flooded forests, deforestation, and naturally non-forest vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Progress on Understanding Rayleigh–Taylor Flow and Mixing Using Synergy Between Simulation, Modeling, and Experiment

Simultaneous advances in numerical methods and computing, theoretical techniques, and experimental diagnostics have all led independently to better understanding of Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) instability, turbulence, and mixing. In particular, experiments have provided significant motivation for many simulation and modeling studies, as well as validation data. Numerical simulations have also provided data that is not currently measurable or very difficult to measure accurately in RT unstable flows. Thus, simulations have also motivated new measurements in this class of buoyancy-driven flows. This overview discusses simulation and modeling studies synergistic with experiments and examples of how experiments have motivated simulations and models of RT instability, flow, and mixing. First, a brief summary of measured experimental and calculated simulation quantities, of experimental approaches, and of issues and challenges in the simulation and modeling of RT experiments is presented. Implicit large-eddy, direct numerical, and large-eddy simulations validated using RT experimental data are then discussed. This is followed by a discussion of modeling using analytical, modal, buoyancy–drag, and turbulent transport models of RT mixing experiments. The discussion will focus on three-dimensional RT mixing arising from multimode perturbations. Finally, this focused review concludes with a perspective on future simulation, modeling, and experimental directions for further research. Research in simulation and modeling of RT unstable flows, coupled with experiments, has made significant progress over the past several decades. This overview serves as an opportunity to both discuss progress and to stimulate future research on simulation and modeling of this unique class of hydrodynamically unstable turbulent flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Review on Simulation Models of Cascading Failures in Power Systems

Among various power system disturbances, cascading failures are considered the most serious and extreme threats to grid operations, potentially leading to significant stability issues or even widespread power blackouts. Simulating power systems' behaviors during cascading failures is of great importance to comprehend how failures originate and propagate, as well as to develop effective preventive and mitigative control strategies. The intricate mechanism of cascading failures, characterized by multi-timescale dynamics, presents exceptional challenges for their simulations. This paper provides a comprehensive review of simulation models for cascading failures, providing a systematic categorization and a comparison of these models. The challenges and potential research directions for the future are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Southern Ocean (SO) atmosphere have significant impacts on cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Yet, INP prediction skill in climate models remains poorly understood, in part because of the lack of long-term measurements. Here we show, for the first time, how model-simulated INP concentrations compare with year-round INP measurements during the Macquarie Island Cloud Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign from 2017–2018. We simulate immersion-mode INP concentrations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) by combining simulated aerosols with recently developed deterministic INP parameterizations and the native classical nucleation theory (CNT) for mineral dust in E3SMv1. Because MICRE did not collect aerosol measurements of super-micron particles, which are more effective ice nucleators, we evaluate the model's aerosol fields at other high-latitude sites using long-term in situ observations of dust and sea spray aerosol. We find that the model underestimates dust and overestimates sea spray aerosol concentrations by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for most of the high-latitude sites in the Southern Hemisphere. We next compare predicted INP concentrations with concentrations of INPs collected on filter samples (typically for 2 or 3 d) and processed offline using the Colorado State University ice spectrometer (IS) in immersion freezing mode. We find that when deterministic parameterizations for both dust and sea spray INPs are used, simulated INPs are within a factor of 10 of observed INPs more than 60 % of the time during summer. Our results also indicate that the E3SM's current treatment of mineral dust immersion freezing in the SO is impacted by compensating biases – an underprediction of dust amount was compensated by an overprediction of its effectiveness as INPs. We also perform idealized droplet freezing experiments to quantify the implications of the time-dependent behavior assumed by the E3SM's CNT-parameterization and compare with the ice spectrometer observations. We find that the E3SM CNT 10 s diagnostic used in this study is a reasonable approximation of the exact formulation of CNT, when applied to ice spectrometer measurements in low-INP conditions similar to Macquarie Island. However, the linearized 10 s diagnostic underestimates the exact formula by an order of magnitude or more in places with high-INP conditions like the Sahara. Overall, our findings suggest that it is important to correct the biases in E3SM's simulated dust life cycle and update E3SM's INP parameterizations. INP prediction errors of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude can have considerable impacts on the simulated cloud and radiative properties in global climate models. On comparing INP concentrations during MICRE against ship-based campaigns, Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) and Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE), we find that INPs from the latter are significantly higher only in regions closer to Macquarie Island. This alludes to the fact that physical, chemical and biological processes affecting INP concentrations as stimulated by the island could be partly responsible for the high INP concentrations observed at Macquarie Island during the MICRE campaign. Therefore, improvements to both aerosol simulation and INP parameterizations are required to adequately simulate INPs and their cloud impacts in E3SM. It will be helpful to include a parallel measurement of the size-resolved aerosol composition and explore opportunities for long-term measurement platforms in future field campaigns studying INP sources in remote marine regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Xanthohumol Alters Gut Microbiota Metabolism and Bile Acid Dynamics in Gastrointestinal Simulation Models of Eubiotic and Dysbiotic States

Xanthohumol (XN), a polyphenol from hops (Humulus lupulus), exhibits antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antihyperlipidemic, and chemo-preventive activity. Preclinical evidence suggests gut microbiota are critical to mediating some of these bioactivities. Nevertheless, its precise impact on human gut microbiota, particularly at supplemental doses, remains poorly characterized. We evaluated 200 mg/day XN for 3 weeks on human gut microbiota in a eubiotic and dysbiotic model using the Simulator of the Human Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem (SHIME®). Functional assessments of microbiota included quantification of XN metabolites, short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), and untargeted metabolomics of the digestive metabolome. Bacterial composition was assessed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. XN reduced alpha-diversity and short-chain fatty acid production in both models, as well as altered taxa abundance variably between models. XN disrupted bile acid metabolism through inhibition of microbial bile salt hydrolase (BSH). The modulation of bile acid metabolism has important implications for host-level bioactivity of XN.

Humulus lupulus↗

Produced Water-Economic, Socio, Environmental Simulation Model (PW-ESEim) Model: Proof-of-Concept for Southeastern New Mexico

A proof-of-concept tool, the Produced Water-Economic, Socio, Environmental Simulation model (PW-ESESim), was developed to support ease of analysis. The tool was designed to facilitate head-to-head comparison of alternative produced water source, treatment, and reuse water management strategies. A graphical user interface (GUI) guides the user through the selection and design of alternative produced water treatment and reuse strategies and the associated health and safety risk and economic benefits. At the highest conceptual level, alternative water strategies include the selection of a source water (locally or regionally available produced water), treatment strategy (pre-treatment, physical, chemical, biological, desalination, and post-treatment processes) and product water purpose (e.g., irrigation, industrial processing, environmental). After selection of these details, the PW-ESESim output a number of key economic, societal, environmental, public/ecological health and safety metrics to support user decision-making; specific examples include, cost of treatment, improvements in freshwater availability, human and ecologic health impacts and growth in local jobs and the economy. Through the simulation of different produced water treatment and management strategies, tradeoffs are identified and used to inform fit-for-purpose produced water treatment and reuse management decisions. While the tool was initially designed using Southeastern New Mexico (Permian Basin) as a case study, the general design of the PW-ESESim model can be extended to support other oil and gas regions of the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗