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At least 37 records · Page 2

Controlling pollutant emissions in a high-pressure combustor with fuel-diluent blending

This paper investigates the formation of nitric oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions as a function of nitrogen (N 2 ) or carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) diluent content, added to a premixed reacting jet in crossflow. Here, reaction characteristics of a rich methane-air jet injected into a lean vitiated crossflow were analyzed at an elevated pressure of 5 atm. The jet was pre-heated and enriched with 0%, 15%, 30%, and 50% mass fraction to quantify the effect on pollutant emissions. Simulated results of the full chemistry Star-CCM+CFD model were verified with data taken in the experimental high-pressure combustion facility, which provides pressure, temperature and velocity profiles, as well as line-of-sight chemiluminescence and exit emission measurements. The analysis revealed the significant influence of the diluent to delay axial combustion; this mixing delay increased the axial flame lift-off and controlled any thermal ignition limitations. Increasing the diluent content increased the timescale for the flame to stabilize, which allowed for greater entrainment of crossflow oxidizer into the axial jet stream, and led to decreased pollutant emissions. Hence, crossflow entrainment is a critical driving force at high diluent content. Local nitric oxide (NO) emission formation in the axial stage was predicted numerically, showing the correlation between diluent addition, axial heat release, and the formation of nitric oxide pollution. The high diluent levels leaned out the jet mixture and delayed axial combustion, while reducing prompt and thermal NOx by mitigating flame hotspots and minimizing the timescale that the products remain at high temperatures.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NLR's FleetDNA Speed Distributions for EPA MOVES

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) models mobile sources of air toxics at small and large scales across the Unites States. Vehicle speed distributions based on the type of vehicle, type of road traveled, and hour of the day are inputs into MOVES. In conjunction with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) inputs, they are used to estimate total operation time and select the relevant driving cycles from which running operating modes and emissions are estimated. In an ongoing research effort, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) partnered with the EPA to provide default average speed data for heavy-duty vehicles based on NLR's FleetDNA database and the Bourns College of Engineering - Center for Environmental Research and Technology (CE-CERT) data set from the University of California, Riverside.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a heavy-duty vehicle activity database to estimate start and idle emissions

Heavy-duty vehicle start and idling activities were characterized from two datasets to improve emission estimates in the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES): 1. Fleet DNA from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and 2. A dataset collected by the University of California, Riverside for the California Air Resources Board. Furthermore, the combined dataset includes 564 commercial vehicles, over 23,000 vehicle days of operation and covers seven of the nine heavy-duty source types defined by MOVES. The start and idle activities are characterized and illustrated across MOVES source types, vocations, fleets, days, and hours. This study provides the most comprehensive analysis yet made publicly available to characterize start and idle activity for heavy-duty vehicles within the United States. The results also show there is significant uncertainty in the average heavy-duty idle and start activity due to the large variation in activity across fleets and vocations, and sparsity of nation-wide vehicle population data by vocation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Constructing the Mechanism of Dinoflagellate Luciferin Bioluminescence Using Computation

Dinoflagellate luciferin bioluminescence is unique since it does not rely on decarboxylation but is poorly understood compared to that of firefly, bacteria, and coelenterata luciferins. Here, in this work, we computationally investigate possible protonation states, stereoisomers, a chemical mechanism, and the dynamics of the bioluminescence intermediate that is responsible for chemiexcitation. Using semiempirical dynamics, time-dependent density functional theory static calculations, and a correlation diagram, we find that the intermediate’s functional group that is likely responsible for chemiexcitation is a 4-member ring, a dioxetanol, that undergoes [2π + 2π] cycloreversion and the biolumiphore is the cleaved structure. The simulated emission spectra and luciferase-dependent absorbance spectra agree with the experimental data, giving support to our proposed mechanism and biolumiphore. We also compute circular dichroism spectra of the intermediate’s four stereoisomers to guide future experiments in differentiating them.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗

A full-ring variable-aperture cadmium zinc telluride system for whole-body single photon emission computed tomography: realistic simulations with phantoms

Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is an imaging modality that has demonstrated its utility in a number of clinical indications. Despite this progress, a high sensitivity, high spatial resolution, multi-tracer SPECT with a large field of view suitable for whole-body imaging of a broad range of radiotracers for theranostics is not available. Purpose We have designed a cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) variable-aperture full-ring SPECT scanner instrumented with a broad-energy tungsten collimator intended to fill this technological gap. The final purpose is to provide a multi-tracer solution for brain and whole-body imaging. Our static SPECT scanner breaks the paradigm of the standard dual- and triple-head rotational SPECT systems, utilizing a larger detector area in each scan increasing the sensitivity. We provide a demonstration of the performance of our design using a realistic model of our detector with simulated body-sized 99mTc phantoms. Methods We developed a realistic model of our detector by using a combination of a Geant4 Monte Carlo simulation and a CZT detector response model based on a finite element model. Our approach models the characteristic low-energy tail effect in CZT that noticeably affects the sensitivity and the quality of the scatter correction in CZT detectors. We implement a modified dual energy window scatter correction adapted to include the CZT low-energy tail effect. A dedicated correction is also developed to eliminate the undesirable truncation observed in images given the presence of detector edges and gaps between detectors, due to the non-rotational nature of our device. Corrections for the attenuation, detector response and the presence of collimators are also included. The images are reconstructed using the maximum-likelihood expectation-maximization algorithm implemented in the reconstruction open software STIR. Detector and reconstruction performance are characterized with a Derenzo phantom and a body-sized National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) Image Quality (IQ) phantom containing 99mTc. Results Our SPECT design can resolve 6.4mm rods in a Derenzo phantom and obtain a good image contrast with the IQ phantom. Explicit testing of the gap and edge correction is provided, showing an excellent performance in eliminating the image truncation artifacts. Our modified scatter correction shows no overestimation of the contrast-recovery ratio for our realistic CZT detector model, as opposed to the cases without correction and with a standard dual-energy window scatter correction. Conclusions In this paper, we further demonstrate the performance of our design for whole-body imaging purposes. This adds to our previous demonstration of improved qualitative and quantitative 99mTc imaging for brain perfusion and 123I imaging for dopamine transport with respect to state-of-the-art NaI dual-head cameras. We show that our design performs similarly to the VERITON SPECT from Spectrum Dynamics, a commercial full-ring CZT SPECT camera, with the potential advantage of the broader energy range of application given by our custom-design tungsten collimators. Here, our device combines high sensitivity and image resolution with a broad-energy imaging application for the purpose of clinical imaging and theranostics of emerging radionuclides.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Simulation of Plasma Emission in Magnetized Plasmas

The recent Parker Solar Probe observations of type III radio bursts show that the effects of the finite background magnetic field can be an important factor in the interpretation of data. In the present paper, the effects of the background magnetic field on the plasma-emission process, which is believed to be the main emission mechanism for solar coronal and interplanetary type III radio bursts, are investigated by means of the particle-in-cell simulation method. The effects of the ambient magnetic field are systematically surveyed by varying the ratio of plasma frequency to electron gyrofrequency. The present study shows that for a sufficiently strong ambient magnetic field, the wave–particle interaction processes lead to a highly field-aligned longitudinal mode excitation and anisotropic electron velocity distribution function, accompanied by a significantly enhanced plasma emission at the second-harmonic plasma frequency. For such a case, the polarization of the harmonic emission is almost entirely in the sense of extraordinary mode. On the other hand, for moderate strengths of the ambient magnetic field, the interpretation of the simulation result is less clear. The underlying nonlinear-mode coupling processes indicate that to properly understand and interpret the simulation results requires sophisticated analyses involving interactions among magnetized plasma normal modes, including the two transverse modes of the magneto-active plasma, namely, the extraordinary and ordinary modes, as well as electron-cyclotron-whistler, plasma oscillation, and upper-hybrid modes. At present, a nonlinear theory suitable for quantitatively analyzing such complex-mode coupling processes in magnetized plasmas is incomplete, which calls for further theoretical research, but the present simulation results could provide a guide for future theoretical efforts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamics of plasma atomic layer etching: Molecular dynamics simulations and optical emission spectroscopy

Atomic layer etching is intrinsically dynamic as it involves sequential and repeated exposures of a surface to be etched with different species at different energies. The composition and structure of the near surface region change in both time and depth. Full understanding of this process requires resolving both temporal and spatial variations. In this work, we consider silicon (Si) atomic layer etching (ALE) by alternating exposure to chlorine gas (Cl 2 ) and argon ions (Ar + ). Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are compared to experimental measurements with the aim of better understanding the dynamics of ALE and to test the simulation procedure. The simulations help to more fully interpret the experimental measurements. Further, optical emission measured just above the surface being etched can be related to etch products and can, therefore, be directly compared to simulation predictions. The simulations capture the measured initial product distribution leaving the surface and match the measured etch per cycle reasonably well. While simulations demonstrate the importance of ion-induced surface damage and mixing into a layer below the surface, the depth of which depends mainly on ion energy, the experiments suggest there is more Cl mixed into the layer than the MD procedure predicts.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion

Abstract. Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Author Correction: US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements

Correction to: Naturehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07117-5 Published online 13 March 2024 In the version of the article initially published, several errors were present and have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article and Supplementary Information. The main results, conclusions, and our interpretations of the data remain unchanged. See the new Supplementary Information Section S15 for a more detailed description of the errors corrected and the resulting effects on the analysis. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. The following practices may help researchers conducting similar analyses avoid making similar errors: 1, Clear, accessible documentation explaining the interpretation of all columns in data input tables and all internal variables within the model, 2, Simple cross-check calculations computed before and after unit conversions.

Sherwin, Evan D↗

CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data pertaining to Earth systems science, and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Earth System (CMIP7-ES) theme centre around tracking of flows of energy, carbon, water and other fluxes across domains, and constraining feedbacks between these cycles and the climate system. These topics are summarized in this paper as scientific “opportunities” describing specific model intercomparison experiments and use cases for next-generation Earth System Model (ESM) output. These opportunities were submitted by modelling groups and scientific consortia following an extended public consultation process. Contained within each opportunity are requests for groups of Climate & Forecasting (CF) variables, which are bundled into variable groups representing all data required to address the opportunities' needs. Novel opportunities in CMIP7 compared with previous phases will include running `emissions-driven' simulations that integrate carbon emissions and removal scenarios with updated representations of the global carbon cycle, expanded variable groups needed to model marine trophic interactions and biogeochemistry, and data needed to understand the risk of global tipping points, among others. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and support the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). We argue that CMIP7-ES data will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making. As an author group we also reflect on the evolution of the CMIP7-ES data request as a part of a deliberative process in support of the global CMIP program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of self-generated magnetic fields on x-ray emission in Kr-filled targets at the National Ignition Facility

We examine the effects of self-generated magnetic fields in a Kr gas pipe x-ray source platform. X-ray emission from Kr plasma is dependent on the plasma conditions, as the ionization state is largely a function of temperature. Magnetic fields are known to limit heat conduction, which increases temperature. We show that the emission in simulations of the gas pipe x-ray source is dependent on how self-generated magnetic fields are modeled. The inclusion of self-generated magnetic fields in simulations more accurately captures the emission of lower energy x-ray emission (L-shell), bringing results closer to experiments. The modeled x-ray emission and self-generated magnetic fields are shown to be particularly sensitive to the inclusion of the Nernst effect in simulations. Severely limiting the Nernst effect leads to a hotter Kr plasma, which can account for the discrepancy seen in earlier studies. By modifying the Nernst effect multiplier, we can achieve better experimental agreement in x-ray emission from gas pipes; the value of the multiplier that leads to the best agreement is dependent on the laser power of the drive. Currently, the suppression factor of the Nernst effect needed for high power drives (PL>200 TW) is more restrictive than what is currently put forward by non-local models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories

We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating Class 6 Delivery Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Using Vehicle System Simulations for Conventional and Hybrid Powertrains and Co-Optima Fuel Blends

The US Department of Energy’s Co-Optimization of Engine and Fuels Initiative (Co-Optima) investigated how unique properties of bio-blendstocks considered within Co-Optima help address emissions challenges with mixing controlled compression ignition (i.e., conventional diesel combustion) and enable advanced compression ignition modes suitable for implementation in a diesel engine. Additionally, the potential synergies of these Co-Optima technologies in hybrid vehicle applications in the medium- and heavy-duty sector was also investigated. In this work, vehicles system were simulated using the Autonomie software tool for quantifying the benefits of Co-Optima engine technologies for medium-duty trucks. A Class 6 delivery truck with a 6.7 L diesel engine was used for simulations over representative real-world and certification drive cycles with four different powertrains to investigate fuel economy, criteria emissions, and performance. Comparisons were made between ultralow-sulfur diesel and a blend of 25% hexyl hexanoate with diesel. Model validation data were informed by 2019 model year Cummins ISB 6.7 L diesel engine maps and transient validation data in a pre-production hybrid configuration and a direct dyno coupled configuration with diesel fuel and a blend of 25% hexyl hexanoate with diesel.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗

Inferring and evaluating satellite-based constraints on NO x emissions estimates in air quality simulations

Satellite observations of tropospheric NO 2 columns can provide top-down observational constraints on emissions estimates of nitrogen oxides (NO x ). Mass-balance-based methods are often applied for this purpose but do not isolate near-surface emissions from those aloft, such as lightning emissions. Here, we introduce an inverse modeling framework that couples satellite chemical data assimilation to a chemical transport model. In the framework, satellite-constrained emissions totals are inferred using model simulations with and without data assimilation in the iterative finite-difference mass-balance method. The approach improves the finite-difference mass-balance inversion by isolating the near-surface emissions increment. We apply the framework to separately estimate lightning and anthropogenic NO x emissions over the Northern Hemisphere for 2019. Using overlapping observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), we compare separate NO x emissions inferences from these satellite instruments, as well as the impacts of emissions changes on modeled NO 2 and O 3 . OMI inferences of anthropogenic emissions consistently lead to larger emissions than TROPOMI inferences, attributed to a low bias in TROPOMI NO 2 retrievals. Updated lightning NO x emissions from either satellite improve the chemical transport model's low tropospheric O 3 bias. The combined lighting and anthropogenic emissions updates improve the model's ability to reproduce measured ozone by adjusting natural, long-range, and local pollution contributions. Thus, the framework informs and supports the design of domestic and international control strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗