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DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven closure modeling for hypersonic turbulent flows

The Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations remain a workhorse technology for simulating compressible fluid flows of practical interest. Due to model-form errors, however, RANS models can yield erroneous predictions that preclude their use on mission-critical problems. This report summarizes work performed from FY22-FY24 focused on improving RANS models for hypersonic flows using data-driven modeling and scientific machine learning. In this work we: 1. Investigate the current capabilities of RANS models in Sandia’s parallel aerodynamics and re-entry code (SPARC) for hypersonic flows with a focus on shock boundary layer interactions (SBLIs), 2. Assess several established corrections that exist in the literature aimed at improving predictions for SBLIs, 3. Develop improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor using tensor-basis neural networks, 4. Develop a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model to reduce errors in wall heating in SBLIs. 5. Begin future investigations including employing the LIFE framework to improve wall heating predictions in SBLIs as well as the ensemble Kalman filter. We find that current RANS models in SPARC are deficient for complex SBLI flows. In particular, no current model jointly predicts wall heat flux, wall shear stress, and wall pressure with reasonable accuracy. Existing corrections help, but do not alleviate this issue altogether. The development of improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor via tensor-basis neural networks results in more predictive RANS models across a suite of low-speed and high-speed cases. For hypersonic boundary layers, the inclusion of the wall-normal Reynolds stress via TBNNs has an appreciable impact on the wall-normal momentum balance and wall quantities. However, we find that improvements to the Reynolds stress tensor do not address the over-prediction in wall heat flux in SBLIs. We find that a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model systematically and substantially improves wall heating predictions for a range of SBLI cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phase transitions in high-purity zirconium under dynamic compression

In this work, we present results from ramp compression experiments on high-purity Zr that show the α → ω, ω → β, as well as reverse β → ω phase transitions. Simulations with a multi-phase equation of state and phenomenological kinetic model match the experimental wave profiles well. While the dynamic α ! ! transition occurs ~ 9 GPa above the equilibrium phase boundary, the ω → β transition occurs within 0.9 GPa of equilibrium. We estimate that the dynamic compression path intersects the equilibrium ω – β line at P = 29:2 GPa, and T = 490 K. The thermodynamic path in the interior of the sample lies ~ 100 K above the isentrope at the point of the ω → β transition. Approximately half of this dissipative temperature rise is due to plastic work, and half is due to the non-equilibrium α → ω transition. The inferred rate of the α → ω transition is several orders of magnitude higher than that measured in dynamic diamond anvil cell (DDAC) experiments in an overlapping pressure range. We discuss a model for the influence of shear stress on the nucleation rate. We find that the shear stress s ji has the same effect on the nucleation rate as a pressure increase δP = cϵ ij s ji /(ΔV/V); where c is a geometric constant ~ 1 and, ϵ ij are the transformation shear strains. The small fractional volume change ΔV/V ≈ 0:1 at the α → ω transition amplifies the effect of shear stress, and we estimate that for this case δP is in the range of several GPa. Correcting our transition rate to a hydrostatic rate brings it approximately into line with the DDAC results, suggesting that shear stress plays a significant role in the transformation rate.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Time-Height Profile Assimilation Technique for Large-Eddy Simulation

Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) aims to address the limited scope of traditional large-eddy simulations by driving the microscale flow with information concerning large-scale weather patterns provided by mesoscale models. We present a new offline MMC technique for horizontally homogeneous microscale flow conditions, in which internal forcing terms are computed based on mesoscale time–height profiles of mean-flow quantities. The advantage of such an approach is that it can be used to drive a microscale simulation with either mesoscale or observational data, and that it does not rely on specific terms in the mesoscale budget equations, which are typically not part of the default output of a mesoscale solver. The performance of the proposed profile assimilation technique is assessed based on the simulation of a typical diurnal cycle over the Scaled Wind Farm Technology site in west Texas. Results indicate that simple data assimilation techniques lead to unphysically high levels of shear and turbulence caused by the algorithm’s inability to cope with inaccuracies in the mesoscale time–height profiles. Modifying the algorithm to account for vertical coherence in the mesoscale source terms gives the microscale solver a greater ability to correct the provided mesoscale time–height profiles, leading to improved predictions of shear and turbulence statistics. The resulting turbulence statistics are in good agreement with meteorological tower observations and simulation results obtained with state-of-the-art coupling techniques using mesoscale budget components.

data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving the Physical Basis for Updraft Dynamics in Deep Convection Parameterizations

This article presents a new deep convective parameterization that determines cloud characteristics based on a specified cloud size distribution. The vertical profiles of cloud properties are determined by analytic equations, which formulate entrainment with an inverse relationship to cloud width. In line with recent studies of large eddy simulations (LES), cloud widths are assumed to be constant with height and vertical mass flux (M) characteristics of the clouds are therefore regulated by the vertical velocity profile. The parameterization is configured to work with existing cloud base M closure formulations, with the closure predicting the total cloud area rather than the cloud base M directly. Analytic formula are also used to connect the vertical wind shear magnitude to the cloud size distribution, wherein larger shear magnitudes result in more numerous large updrafts than weaker shear magnitudes, which is in line with recent research results. The parameterization is compared against 10 deep convective LES with varying thermodynamic and vertical wind shear profiles. Results show dramatic improvements in the prediction of normalized M, detrainment, and the properties of detrained air over the existing Zhang and McFarlane (1995) scheme. In particular, the new model is able to correctly portray the transition from a bottom-heavy M profile in weakly sheared environments, to a top-heavy M profile in strongly sheared environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dislocation density-based plasticity model from massive discrete dislocation dynamics database

In this work, we present a dislocation density-based strain hardening model for single crystal copper through a systematic coarse-graining analysis of more than 200 discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations of plastic deformation under uniaxial tension. The proposed constitutive model has two components: a generalized Taylor relation connecting resolved shear stresses to dislocation densities on individual slip systems, and a generalized Kocks-Mecking model for dislocation multiplication. The DDD data strongly suggests a logarithmic dependence of flow stress on the plastic shear strain rate on each slip system, and, equivalently, an exponential dependence of the plastic shear strain rate on the resolved shear stress. Hence the proposed generalized Taylor relation subsumes the Orowan relation for plastic flow. The DDD data also calls for a correction to the Kocks-Mecking model of dislocation multiplication to account for the increase of dislocation density on slip systems with negligible plastic shear strain rate. This is accomplished by allowing the multiplication rate on each slip system to include contributions from the plastic strain rates of the two coplanar slip systems. The resulting constitutive model successfully captures the strain hardening rate dependence on the loading orientation as predicted by the DDD simulations, which is also consistent with existing experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement and calibration of non-linear shear terms in galaxy cluster fields

Introduction Galaxy cluster lensing is a powerful tool for measuring the mass of galaxy clusters, but accurate shear measurement and calibration are critical to obtaining reliable results. This study focuses on the measurement and calibration of weak lensing shears to improve mass estimates in cluster lensing. To deal with the problem, we first developed an image simulation pipeline, jedisim, which utilizes galaxy images extracted from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Ultra Deep Field (UDF) and the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). Methods The simulations represent realistic galaxy distributions and morphologies as input sources. The foreground halo with a Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) profile is constructed such that the lensing signals of background galaxies can be measured by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Science Pipelines. By comparing the measured reduced shear g meas and the true reduced shear g true , we observe non-linearity up to g ≲ 0.6 . We fit polynomials to the data with quadratic correction adequate to g ≲ 0.4 . Meanwhile, we conduct mass estimates using the pzmassfitter code on four different clusters. Results The mass estimate results are significantly improved after applying the shear calibration derived from the present work—from 4.954 ± 0.504 × 1 0 14 M ⊙ to 10.507 ± 0.498 × 1 0 14 M ⊙ after calibration for a simulated cluster with the mass of 10 × 1 0 14 M ⊙ . In multiple cases of validation, the estimated results are all consistent with true cluster mass. Discussion This study yields the first relationship between reality and shape measurement of the LSST Science Pipelines and serves as the first step toward the overall goal of mass calibration in cluster lensing. By addressing the challenges in shear measurement and calibration, we aim to enhance the accuracy and reliability of mass estimates in galaxy cluster lensing studies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scaling Exponents of Turbulent Static Pressure Structure Function in the Inertial Subrange

The measured variations in the turbulent static pressure structure function D pp (r) with scale $r$ in the roughness sublayer above a subarctic forest are empirically shown to exhibit exponents that are smaller than $r$ 4/3 predicted for the inertial subrange (ISR). Three hypotheses are offered to explain these deviations. The first is based on conventional intermittency correction to the averaged turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate, the second is based on shearing introducing deviations from locally isotropic state that must be sensed by both velocity and pressure structure functions, and the third is based on large and inertial scale pressure interactions that persist at values of $r$ within the resolvable ISR. The third hypothesis is shown to yield superior results, which allows a new formulation for D pp (r) to be derived that accommodates such finite interactions.

structure function↗

DOE OSTI2025

Weak lensing mass-richness relation of redMaPPer clusters in LSST DESC DC2 simulations

Cluster scaling relations are key ingredients in cluster abundance-based cosmological studies. In optical cluster cosmology, where clusters are detected through their richness, cluster-weak gravitational lensing has proven to be a powerful tool to constrain the cluster mass-richness relation. This work is conducted as part of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which aims to analyze the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, starting in 2026. Cluster properties inferred from weak lensing, such as mass, suffer from several sources of bias. In this paper, we aim to test the impact of modeling choices and observational systematics in cluster lensing on the inference of the mass-richness relation. We constrained the mass-richness relation of 3600 clusters detected by the redMaPPer algorithm in the cosmoDC2 extragalactic mock catalog of the LSST DESC DC2 simulation, covering 440 deg 2 , using number count measurements and either stacked weak lensing profiles or mean cluster masses in several intervals of richness (20 ≤ λ ≤ 200) and redshift (0.2 ≤ z ≤ 1). We provide the first constraints on the redMaPPer cluster mass-richness relation detected in cosmoDC2. We find that for an LSST-like source galaxy density, our constraints are robust to changes in the concentration-mass relation, as well as the dark matter density profile modeling choices, when source redshifts and shapes are perfectly known. We find that photometric redshift uncertainties can introduce bias at the 1σ level, which could be mitigated by an overall correction factor fitted jointly with the scaling parameters. We find that including positive shear-richness covariance in the fit shifts the results by up to 0.5σ. Our constraints also offer a fair comparison to a fiducial mass-richness relation, obtained from matching cosmoDC2 halo masses to redMaPPer-detected cluster richness results.

galaxy clusters↗

DOE OSTI2025

Error field measurements and correction on MUSE permanent magnet stellarator

The magnetic field topology and error fields are measured in the MUSE permanent magnet stellarator with an electron beam and fluorescent rod. The effective magnetization of the magnets is determined by measuring rational flux surface locations. Electron magnetic drift effects must be considered self-consistently due to the small magnetic shear on MUSE. Error fields are characterized by flux surface shape deviation and magnetic island chain width and phase. Error fields are then corrected by adjusting the permanent magnet (PM) holders as rigid bodies. Resonant error fields are on the order of or smaller than 3 x 10 -6 of the toroidal field after correction and surface shape matches well with the design. Resonant components of the quasi-symmetry deviation are estimated, using a novel magnetic drift measurement, to be in the 10 −4 range. The PM approach is validated as a low-cost and precise way to build optimized stellarators.

electron beam mapping↗

DOE OSTI2020

Non-local model for surface tension in fluid-fluid simulations

We propose a non-local model for surface tension obtained in the form of an integral of a molecular-force-like function with support 3.5e added to the Navier-Stokes momentum conservation equation. We demonstrate analytically and numerically that with the non-local model interfaces with a radius of curvature larger than the support length behave macroscopically and microscopically, otherwise. For static droplets, the pressure difference Pe,in - Pe,out satisfies the Young-Laplace law for droplet radius greater than 3.5e and other- wise deviates from the Young-Laplace law. The latter indicates that the surface tension in the proposed model decreases with decreasing radius of curvature, which agrees with molecular dynamics and experimental studies of nanodroplets. Using the non-local model we perform numerical simulations of droplets under dynamic conditions, including a rising droplet, a droplet in shear flow, and two colliding droplets in shear flow, and compare results with a standard Navier-Stokes model subject to the Young-Laplace boundary condition at the fluid-fluid interface implemented via the Conservative Level Set (CLS) method. We find good agreement with existing numerical methods and analytical results for a rising macroscopic droplet and a droplet in a shear flow. For colliding droplets in shear flow, the non- local model converges (with respect to the grid size) to the correct behavior, including sliding, coalescence, and merging and breaking of two droplets depending on the capillary number. In contrast, we find that the results of the CLS model are highly grid-size dependent.

Howard, Amanda A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A general framework for removing point-spread function additive systematics in cosmological weak lensing analysis

ABSTRACT Cosmological weak lensing measurements rely on a precise measurement of the shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) along with a deep understanding of systematics that affect it. In this work, we demonstrate a general framework for detecting and modelling the impact of PSF systematics on the cosmic shear 2PCF and mitigating its impact on cosmological analysis. Our framework can detect PSF leakage and modelling error from all spin-2 quantities contributed by the PSF second and higher moments, rather than just the second moments, using the cross-correlations between galaxy shapes and PSF moments. We interpret null tests using the HSC Year 3 (Y3) catalogs with this formalism and find that leakage from the spin-2 combination of PSF fourth moments is the leading contributor to additive shear systematics, with total contamination that is an order-of-magnitude higher than that contributed by PSF second moments alone. We conducted a mock cosmic shear analysis for HSC Y3 and find that, if uncorrected, PSF systematics can bias the cosmological parameters Ωm and S8 by ∼0.3σ. The traditional second moment-based model can only correct for a 0.1σ bias, leaving the contamination largely uncorrected. We conclude it is necessary to model both PSF second and fourth moment contaminations for HSC Y3 cosmic shear analysis. We also reanalyse the HSC Y1 cosmic shear analysis with our updated systematics model and identify a 0.07σ bias on Ωm when using the more restricted second moment model from the original analysis. We demonstrate how to self-consistently use the method in both real space and Fourier space, assess shear systematics in tomographic bins, and test for PSF model overfitting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing line-of-sight selection biases in galaxy-scale strong lensing with external convergence and shear

The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will dramatically increase the number of strong gravitational lensing systems, requiring precise modeling of line-of-sight (LOS) effects to mitigate biases in lensing observations and cosmological inferences. We develop a method to construct joint distributions of external convergence (κ ext ) and shear (γ ext ) for strong lensing LOS by aggregating large-scale structure simulations with high-resolution halo renderings and non-linear correction. Our approach captures both smooth background matter and perturbations from halos, enabling accurate modeling of LOS effects. Here, we apply non-linear LOS corrections to κ ext and γ ext that address the non-additive lensing effects caused by objects along the LOS in strong lensing. We find that, with a minimum image separation of 1.0'', non-linear LOS correction due to the presence of a dominant deflector slightly increases the ratio of quadruple to double lenses; this non-linear LOS correction also introduces systematic biases of ∼ 0.1% for galaxy-AGN lens in the inferred Hubble constant (H 0 ) if not accounted for. We also observe a 0.66% bias for galaxy-galaxy lenses on H 0 , and even larger biases 1.02% for galaxy-AGN systems if LOS effects are not accounted for. These results highlight the importance of LOS for precision cosmology. The publicly available code and datasets provide tools for incorporating LOS effects in future analyses.

Hubble constant↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: marginalization over redshift distribution uncertainties using ranking of discrete realizations

ABSTRACT Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Constraining the baryonic feedback with cosmic shear using the DES Year-3 small-scale measurements

ABSTRACT We use the small scales of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year-3 cosmic shear measurements, which are excluded from the DES Year-3 cosmological analysis, to constrain the baryonic feedback. To model the baryonic feedback, we adopt a baryonic correction model and use the numerical package baccoemu to accelerate the evaluation of the baryonic non-linear matter power spectrum. We design our analysis pipeline to focus on the constraints of the baryonic suppression effects, utilizing the implication given by a principal component analysis on the Fisher forecasts. Our constraint on the baryonic effects can then be used to better model and ameliorate the effects of baryons in producing cosmological constraints from the next-generation large-scale structure surveys. We detect the baryonic suppression on the cosmic shear measurements with a ∼2σ significance. The characteristic halo mass for which half of the gas is ejected by baryonic feedback is constrained to be $M_c \gt 10^{13.2} \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ (95 per cent C.L.). The best-fitting baryonic suppression is $\sim 5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at $k=1.0 \, {\rm Mpc}\ h^{-1}$ and $\sim 15{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at $k=5.0 \, {\rm Mpc} \ h^{-1}$. Our findings are robust with respect to the assumptions about the cosmological parameters, specifics of the baryonic model, and intrinsic alignments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modified equilibrium distributions for Cooper-Frye particlization

We introduce a positive-definite single-particle distribution that is suitable for describing the transition from a macroscopic hydrodynamic to a microscopic kinetic description during the late stages of heavy-ion collisions in the presence of moderately large viscous corrections. The modified equilibrium distribution function can be constructed with hydrodynamic input from either relativistic viscous fluid dynamics or anisotropic fluid dynamics. We test the modified equilibrium distribution's hydrodynamic output for a stationary hadron resonance gas subject to either shear stress, bulk pressure, or baryon diffusion current at a given freeze-out temperature and baryon chemical potential. While it does not reproduce all components of the net baryon current and energy-momentum tensor exactly, it significantly improves upon the customary linearized approximations for the nonequilibrium correction δf n which typically lead to unphysical negative distribution functions at large particle momenta. A comparison of particle spectra and p T –differential elliptic flow coefficients from the Cooper–Frye formula computed with the modified equilibrium distribution and with linearized δf n corrections is presented, for two different (2 + 1)–dimensional hypersurfaces corresponding to central and noncentral Pb + Pb collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

2019 Groundwater Monitoring Report Project Shoal Area: Subsurface Corrective Action Unit 447

The Project Shoal Area is a site in Nevada where an underground nuclear test was conducted in 1963. It later came to be known as the Shoal, Nevada, Site. Surface contamination at the site has been remediated, but investigation of groundwater contamination resulting from the test is still in the corrective action process. Annual sampling and water-level monitoring are conducted as part of the subsurface corrective action strategy, which has focused on revising the site conceptual model and evaluating the adequacy of the monitoring well network. It has also included enhancements to the monitoring well network to address uncertainties in the groundwater flow direction and the cause of rising water levels in site wells west of the shear zone since the first hydrologic characterization (HC) wells were installed in 1996. Revisions to the site conceptual model and enhancements to the monitoring strategy were provided to Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) in the Addendum to: Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan (CADD/CAP) for the Subsurface Corrective Action Unit 447 Shoal, Nevada, Site. NDEP approved the addendum to the CADD/CAP, which included an expanded contaminant boundary and compliance boundary for the site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗