Bayesian Inference and Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Synthetic Biological Systems.
Abstract not provided.
Catanach, Thomas Anthony↗
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Results for “sequential Monte Carlo”
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Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Inference.
Abstract not provided.
Catanach, Thomas Anthony↗
Sequential Kalman tuning of the t -preconditioned Crank-Nicolson algorithm: efficient, adaptive and gradient-free inference for Bayesian inverse problems
Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) has been proposed as an efficient method for the approximate solution of Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models. However, when applied to the Bayesian inverse problem EKI is only exact in the regime of Gaussian target measures and linear forward models. Here, in this work we propose embedding EKI and Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion, its normalizing flow (NF) preconditioned variant, within a Bayesian annealing scheme as part of an adaptive implementation of the t-preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (tpCN) sampler. The tpCN sampler differs from standard pCN in that its proposal is reversible with respect to the multivariate t-distribution. The more flexible tail behaviour allows for better adaptation to sampling from non-Gaussian targets. Within our Sequential Kalman Tuning (SKT) adaptation scheme, EKI is used to initialize and precondition the tpCN sampler for each annealed target. The subsequent tpCN iterations ensure particles are correctly distributed according to each annealed target, avoiding the accumulation of errors that would otherwise impact EKI. We demonstrate the performance of SKT for tpCN on three challenging numerical benchmarks, showing significant improvements in the rate of convergence compared to adaptation within standard SMC with importance weighted resampling at each temperature level, and compared to similar adaptive implementations of standard pCN. The SKT scheme applied to tpCN offers an efficient, practical solution for solving the Bayesian inverse problem when gradients of the forward model are not available. Code implementing the SKT schemes for tpCN is available at https://github.com/RichardGrumitt/KalmanMC.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Indirect Measurement of Underground Facility Expansion/Extent through the Multi-Modal Use of Cyber Metadata (Traceroutes) and Physics-Informed Models Applied to Pre-Post Digital Surface Mapping
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A localized ensemble of approximate Gaussian processes for fast sequential emulation
More attention has been given to the computational cost associated with the fitting of an emulator. Substantially less attention is given to the computational cost of using that emulator for prediction. This is primarily because the cost of fitting an emulator is usually far greater than that of obtaining a single prediction, and predictions can often be obtained in parallel. In many settings, especially those requiring Markov Chain Monte Carlo, predictions may arrive sequentially and parallelization is not possible. In this case, using an emulator procedure which can produce accurate predictions efficiently can lead to substantial time savings in practice. In this paper, we propose a global model approximate Gaussian process framework via extension of a popular local approximate Gaussian process (laGP) framework. Our proposed emulator can be viewed as a treed Gaussian process where the leaf nodes are laGP models, and the tree structure is learned greedily as a function of the prediction stream. The suggested method (called leapGP) has interpretable tuning parameters which control the time‐memory trade‐off. One reasonable choice of settings leads to an emulator with a training cost and makes predictions rapidly with an asymptotic amortized cost of .
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data
This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Scalable Algorithms for Inverse Problems With High-Dimensional Parameter Spaces
Inverse problems, which involve inferring unknown parameters from observed data, present significant computational challenges, especially in large-scale settings with high-dimensional unknown parameters and nonlinear relationships between the unknowns and observations. Bayesian inference provides an approach for addressing these problems, often relying on sequential sampling methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters. However, MCMC methods become computationally demanding as the dimensionality of the problem increases, particularly in large-scale systems where likelihood evaluations rely on solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on large spatial domains with finely resolved meshes. To overcome these limitations, recent advancements have focused on designing scalable computa tional techniques – for both PDE simulations and sampling strategies – to make Bayesian methods feasible for high-dimensional problems.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Describing the Influence of Ball-milling on the Amorphization of Flubendazole Using the PDF and RMC Methods with X-ray Powder Diffraction Data
Flubendazole (FBZ) is a poorly water-soluble drug, and different methodologies have been proposed to improve its oral bioavailability. Obtaining the amorphous drug phase is an alternative to improve its water solubility. Several techniques for drug amorphization, such as spray drying, lyophilization, melt quenching, solvent-evaporation, and ball milling, can yield various types of structural disorder and possibly render variations in physicochemical properties. Herein, we focus on evaluating the influence of the ball-milling process on the amorphization of FBZ. The characterization of the average global and local structures before, during, and after the milling process is described by sequential Rietveld refinements, pair distribution function analysis, and the Reverse Monte Carlo method. In conclusion, we show that preserving the local structure (nearest molecules) can be responsible for avoiding the fast structure recrystallization commonly observed when using the solvent-evaporation process for the studied drug.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Two-step electronic response to magnetic ordering in a van der Waals ferromagnet
The two-dimensional material Cr 2 Ge 2 Te 6 is a member of the class of insulating van der Waals (vdW) magnets. Here, using high resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy in a detailed temperature dependence study, we identify a clear response of the electronic structure to a dimensional crossover in the form of two distinct temperature scales marking onsets of modifications in the electronic structure. Specifically, we observe Te 𝑝-orbital-dominated bands to undergo changes at the Curie transition temperature 𝑇 𝐶 while the Cr 𝑑-orbital-dominated bands begin evolving at a higher temperature scale. Combined with neutron scattering, density functional theory calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the electronic system can be consistently understood to respond sequentially to the distinct temperatures at which in-plane and out-of-plane spin correlations exceed a characteristic length scale. Finally, our findings reveal the sensitivity of the orbital-selective electronic structure for probing the dynamical evolution of local moment correlations in vdW insulating magnets.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning of a Short-Range Bond-Order Potential for Silica: Analytic Embedding of Coordination with Classical Efficiency
Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a data-efficient strategy to parametrize short-range interatomic potentials. Building on our past RL optimization of pairwise silica models, we extend the framework to a bond-order (Tersoff-type) potential that provides an analytic embedding of local coordination through a three-body term. A hierarchical RL workflow combining continuous-action Monte Carlo Tree Search and property-based rewards efficiently explores the 26-dimensional parameter space, sequentially optimizing lattice parameters, densities, angles, and cohesive energies of 21 silica polymorphs. The resulting models, Q-Tersoff and ML-Tersoff, reproduce the energetic ordering of low-energy phases and capture the angular correlations and amorphous structure factors of silica with improved fidelity over pairwise force fields, while remaining orders of magnitude faster than high-dimensional machine-learned potentials. Both models underperform for elastic constants and high-energy frameworks, delineating the limits of the current analytic form. The approach establishes a general and interpretable route to angle-aware, short-range potentials that bridge physics-based and machine-learned descriptions of silicate materials.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Scalable Bayesian optimization with randomized prior networks
Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment. Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques are known to be effective in tackling global optimization problems using a relatively small number objective function evaluations, but their performance suffers when dealing with high-dimensional outputs. To overcome the major challenge of dimensionality, here we propose a deep learning framework for BO and sequential decision making based on bootstrapped ensembles of neural architectures with randomized priors. Using appropriate architecture choices, we show that the proposed framework can approximate functional relationships between design variables and quantities of interest, even in cases where the latter take values in high-dimensional vector spaces or even infinite-dimensional function spaces. In the context of BO, we augmented the proposed probabilistic surrogates with re-parameterized Monte Carlo approximations of multiple-point (parallel) acquisition functions, as well as methodological extensions for accommodating black-box constraints and multi-fidelity information sources. We test the proposed framework against state-of-the-art methods for BO and demonstrate superior performance across several challenging tasks with high-dimensional outputs, including a constrained multi-fidelity optimization task involving shape optimization of rotor blades in turbo-machinery.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A Note on the Effects of Linear Topology Preservation in Monte Carlo Simulations of Knotted Proteins
Monte Carlo simulations are a powerful technique and are widely used in different fields. When applied to complex molecular systems with long chains, such as those in synthetic polymers and proteins, they have the advantage of providing a fast and computationally efficient way to sample equilibrium ensembles and calculate thermodynamic and structural properties under desired conditions. Conformational Monte Carlo techniques employ a move set to perform the transitions in the simulation Markov chain. While accepted conformations must preserve the sequential bonding of the protein chain model and excluded volume among its units, the moves themselves may take the chain across itself. We call this a break in linear topology preservation. In this manuscript, we show, using simple protein models, that there is no difference in equilibrium properties calculated with a move set that preserves linear topology and one that does not. However, for complex structures, such as those of deeply knotted proteins, the preservation of linear topology provides correct equilibrium results but only after long relaxation. In any case, to analyze folding pathways, knotting mechanisms and folding kinetics, the preservation of linear topology may be an unavoidable requirement.
Especial, João N. C. (ORCID:0000000254765370)↗
Power Converter Circuit Design Automation using Parallel Monte Carlo Tree Search
The tidal waves of modern electronic/electrical devices have led to increasing demands for ubiquitous application-specific power converters. A conventional manual design procedure of such power converters is computation- and labor-intensive, which involves selecting and connecting component devices, tuning component-wise parameters and control schemes, and iteratively evaluating and optimizing the design. To automate and speed up this design process, we propose an automatic framework that designs custom power converters from design specifications using Monte Carlo Tree Search. Specifically, the framework embraces the upper-confidence-bound-tree (UCT), a variant of Monte Carlo Tree Search, to automate topology space exploration with circuit design specification-encoded reward signals. Moreover, our UCT-based approach can exploit small offline data via the specially designed default policy and can run in parallel to accelerate topology space exploration. Further, it utilizes a hybrid circuit evaluation strategy to substantially reduce design evaluation costs. Empirically, we demonstrated that our framework could generate energy-efficient circuit topologies for various target voltage conversion ratios. Compared to existing automatic topology optimization strategies, the proposed method is much more computationally efficient --- the sequential version can generate topologies with the same quality while being up to 67% faster. Here, the parallelization schemes can further achieve high speedups compared to the sequential version.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Additively manufactured refractory high-entropy alloys with superior radiation resistance
Refractory high-entropy alloys (RHEAs) are promising candidates for next-generation nuclear and high-temperature applications. Among many approaches to manufacture RHEAs, additive manufacturing (AM) represents the most recent and advanced metal manufacturing method which allows near-net-shape manufacturing to reduce material waste and post-processing time. However, performance of AM RHEAs under complex irradiation conditions remains largely unexplored. Here, in this study, we demonstrate for the first time the response of directed energy deposition (DED) AM quaternary RHEAs (HfTaVW, CrTaVW) subjected to sequential dual-beam ion irradiation, consisting of helium pre-implantation followed by high-dose heavy ion bombardment. Compositions of DED AM RHEAs were selected using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations based on a cluster expansion (CE) Hamiltonian parameterized by density functional theory (DFT). Post-irradiation microstructural characterization revealed that the AM RHEA maintained remarkable stability, with suppressed helium bubble growth and reduced defect accumulation compared to conventional alloys. Even at high doses (∼100 dpa), the alloy exhibited no void swelling, a low density of dislocation loops, and no evidence of severe degradation. These results highlight the intrinsic ability of AM-derived microstructures and multicomponent chemistry to synergistically mitigate irradiation effects. Our findings establish AM RHEAs as a class of materials with superior resistance to radiation damage under conditions relevant to advanced fusion and fission environments and demonstrate the importance of sequential ion beam studies in evaluating their long-term performance.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Performance improvements of the windowed multipole formalism using a rational fraction approximation of the Faddeeva function
The windowed multipole (WMP) formalism was introduced as a way to calculate Doppler broadened cross sections on the fly during Monte Carlo simulations. While more arithmetic is needed compared to point-wise cross section look-ups, performance remained competitive from the large memory reductions and sequential data access. The single most expensive function call in a depleted fuel assembly problem using WMP comes from the evaluation of the Faddeeva function, which previously relied on a highly accurate, highly-branching algorithm. This paper explores the use of rational fraction approximations tailored to the domain interest of reactor physics applications and the development of lower accuracy approximations sufficient for our application. The rational approximations were implemented and tested in OpenMC on an infinite medium problem to stress the cross section calculation routine and a PWR assembly problem. In both cases, the rational approximation nearly eliminated the ∼ 20% penalty previously observed when comparing to point-wise libraries. (authors)
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters
Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Bayesian projection pursuit regression
In projection pursuit regression (PPR), a univariate response variable is approximated by the sum of $M$ “ridge functions,” which are flexible functions of one-dimensional projections of a multivariate input variable. Traditionally, optimization routines are used to choose the projection directions and ridge functions via a sequential algorithm, and $M$ is typically chosen via cross-validation. Here, we introduce a novel Bayesian version of PPR, which has the benefit of accurate uncertainty quantification. To infer appropriate projection directions and ridge functions, we apply novel adaptations of methods used for the single ridge function case ($M$=1), called the Bayesian Single Index Model; and use a Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer the number of ridge functions $M$. We evaluate the predictive ability of our model in 20 simulated scenarios and for 23 real datasets, in a bake-off against an array of state-of-the-art regression methods. Finally, we generalize this methodology and demonstrate the ability to accurately model multivariate response variables. Its effective performance indicates that Bayesian Projection Pursuit Regression is a valuable addition to the existing regression toolbox.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Synthesis of magnesiowüstite nanocrystallites embedded in an amorphous silicate matrix via low energy multiple ion implantations
The synthesis process is presented for experimentally simulating modifications in cosmic dust grains using sequential ion implantations or irradiations followed by thermal annealing. Cosmic silicate dust analogues were prepared via implantation of 20–80 keV Fe - , Mg - , and O - ions into commercially available p-type silicon (100)wafers. The as-implanted analogues are amorphous with a Mg/(Fe+Mg) ratio of 0.5 tailored to match theoretical abundances in circumstellar dusts. Before the ion implantations were performed, Monte-Carlo-based ion-solid interaction codes were used to model the dynamic redistribution of the implanted atoms in the silicon substrate. 600 keV helium ion irradiation was performed on one of the samples before thermal annealing. Two samples were thermally annealed at a temperature appropriate for an M-class stellar wind, 1000 K, for 8.3 h in a vacuum chamber with a pressure of 1 x 10 -7 torr. The elemental depth profiles were extracted utilizing Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry (RBS) in the samples before and after thermal annealing. X-ray diffraction (XRD)analysis was employed for the identification of various phases in crystalline minerals in the annealed analogues. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analysis was utilized to identify specific crystal structures. RBS analysis shows redistribution of the implanted Fe, Mg, and O after thermal annealing due to incorporation into the crystal structures for each sample type. XRD patterns along with TEM analysis showed nanocrystalline Mg and Fe oxides with possible incorporation of additional silicate minerals.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗