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NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automated Detection and Analysis of Resident Space Objects with the 1.3-Meter Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

Optical telescopes dedicated to the detection of orbital debris employ large-area detectors that generate a large number of images each night. Such surveys require automated data analysis pipelines that process the images and detect moving objects. We present an overview of the data analysis pipeline employed by the 1.3-meter Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT) on Ascension Island, operated by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office. The pipeline enfolds the astrometric and photometric calibration of the images, star-trail removal, object detection, correlation over multiple sequential image frames, and orbital parameter estimation. The performance of the pipeline was investigated by means of Monte-Carlo simulations in which simulated object tracks were inserted into ES-MCAT images and then processed by the pipeline. This technique allows one to confidently estimate the completeness for the detection of resident space objects as a function of apparent magnitude and angular velocity. This paper discusses these techniques and provides examples using actual data.

Paul Hickson↗

NASA NTRS2023

Automated Detection and Analysis of Resident Space Objects with the 1.3-Meter Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

Paul Hickson↗

NASA NTRS2019

Predicting the X-Ray Spectra of Stellar-mass Black Holes from Simulations

We describe results from a new technique for the prediction of complete, self-consistent X-ray spectra from three-dimensional general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations of black hole accretion flows. Density and cooling rate data from a harm3d GRMHD simulation are post-processed by an improved version of the Monte Carlo radiation transport code pandurata (in the corona) and the Feautrier solver PTRANSX (in the disk), with xstar subroutines. The codes are run in a sequential, iterative fashion to achieve globally energy-conserving and self-consistent radiation fields, temperature maps, and photoionization equilibria. The output is the X-ray spectrum as seen by a distant observer, including features, such as the Fe Kα emission line and corresponding K-edge absorption trough, due to disk reprocessing of coronal power. For the example cases we consider—a non-rotating 10 M(sub ⊙) black hole with solar abundances, accreting at 0.01, 0.03, 0.1, or 0.3 Eddington—we find spectra resembling actual observations of stellar-mass black holes in the soft or steep power-law state: broad thermal peaks (at 1–3 keV), steep power laws extending to high energy (Γ = 2.7–4.5), and prominent, asymmetric Fe Kα emission lines with equivalent widths in the range 40–400 eV (larger EW at lower accretion rates). By starting with simulation data, we obviate the need for parameterized descriptions of the accretion flow geometry—no a priori specification of the corona's shape or flux, or the disk temperature or density, etc., is needed. Instead, we apply the relevant physical principles to simulation output using appropriate numerical techniques; this procedure allows us to calculate inclination-dependent spectra after choosing only a small number of physically meaningful parameters: black hole mass and spin, accretion rate, and elemental abundances.

Kinch, Brooks E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Stress Testing of Trajectory Predictions in Flight Management Systems

To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental commercial flight management system which takes as input a collection of lateral waypoints and en-route environmental conditions. Our aim is to search for failure events relating to inconsistencies in the predicted lateral trajectories. The intention of this work is to find likely failures and report them back to the developers so they can address and potentially resolve shortcomings of the system before deployment. To improve search performance, this work extends the adaptive stress testing formulation to be applied more generally to sequential decision-making problems with episodic reward by collecting the state transitions during the search and evaluating at the end of the simulated rollout. We use a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm with progressive widening as our adversarial reinforcement learner. The performance is compared to direct Monte Carlo simulations and to the cross-entropy method as an alternative importance sampling baseline. The goal is to find potential problems otherwise not found by traditional requirements-based testing. Results indicate that our adaptive stress testing approach finds more failures and finds failures with higher likelihood relative to the baseline approaches.

adaptive stress testing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multistep Probability of Collision Computation Algorithm

The two-dimensional probability of collision calculation method is both widely used and computationally efficient. However, Monte Carlo simulations show that this method sometimes fails to provide sufficiently accurate estimates for Earthorbiting satellites. This study presents a multistep algorithm that calculates collision probabilities for all conjunctions, regardless if affected by curvilinear trajectory or time varying covariance dynamics. The algorithm sequentially applies increasingly accurate estimation methods, but only as required for efficiency. Evaluating usage violations for the two-dimensional probability of collision method represents one of the most important steps. Extensive testing demonstrates the efficiency and reliability of the multistep algorithm.

Doyle T. Hall↗

NASA NTRS2011

Pattern Recognition for a Flight Dynamics Monte Carlo Simulation

The design, analysis, and verification and validation of a spacecraft relies heavily on Monte Carlo simulations. Modern computational techniques are able to generate large amounts of Monte Carlo data but flight dynamics engineers lack the time and resources to analyze it all. The growing amounts of data combined with the diminished available time of engineers motivates the need to automate the analysis process. Pattern recognition algorithms are an innovative way of analyzing flight dynamics data efficiently. They can search large data sets for specific patterns and highlight critical variables so analysts can focus their analysis efforts. This work combines a few tractable pattern recognition algorithms with basic flight dynamics concepts to build a practical analysis tool for Monte Carlo simulations. Current results show that this tool can quickly and automatically identify individual design parameters, and most importantly, specific combinations of parameters that should be avoided in order to prevent specific system failures. The current version uses a kernel density estimation algorithm and a sequential feature selection algorithm combined with a k-nearest neighbor classifier to find and rank important design parameters. This provides an increased level of confidence in the analysis and saves a significant amount of time.

Restrepo, Carolina↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Stochastic Scheduler for Integrated Arrival, Departure and Surface Operations in Los Angeles

In terminal airspace, integrating arrivals, departures, and surface operations with competing resources provides the potential of improving operational efficiency by removing barriers between different operations. This work develops a centralized stochastic scheduler for operations in a terminal area including airborne and surface operations using Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations. The scheduler handles completing resources between different flows, such as runway allocations, runway crossing, departure fixes, and other interaction way points between arrivals and departures. Meanwhile, the scheduler also takes time-varied uncertainties into account when optimizing schedules. The scheduler is run sequentially to identify the best and robust schedule for the next planning window. Resulting schedules decide the routes, speed or delays, and runway assignments with separation constraints at mergingdiverging waypoints in the air and crossing and separations on runways. The Los Angels terminal area was used as an example. The implementation of this stochastic scheduler for integrated arrival, departure and surface operations is completed. And several preliminary runs are finished for over 1,200 flights in LAX in a typical day. Sensitivity studies on various planning window sizes are presented, which shows that trade-off exits between planning window size and achievable minimum delay. Preliminary results on runway usage are also presented in this abstract. Because arrivals on the outer runways have to be followed by crossings on the inner runways, algorithmic runway allocation prefers inner runways for arrivals and outer runways for departures. More results will be presented in the final paper. And current terminal arrival and departure procedures based on first-come-first-serve procedure will also be set up and used as a baseline for comparison.

integrated scheduler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigation Performance of the BioSentinel Deep Space CubeSat Mission

The BioSentinel mission was recently launched aboard the SLS launch vehicle (LV) as part of the Artemis- 1 campaign. The BioSentinel navigation team successfully tracked and guided the spacecraft through a lunar gravity assist to its destination Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit. This 6U CubeSat carries live yeast cells to analyze the effects of radiation at large distances from Earth, becoming the first biological payload in Deep Space. Prelaunch activities included mission design updates, orbit determination rehearsals and the development of a tracking schedule in coordination with the Artemis-1 payload office and the Deep Space Network (DSN). An important influence on the trajectories of Artemis I secondaries was the uncertainty associated with deployment from the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System (ICPS), the upper stage of the SLS LV. The ICPS was rotating at a rate of 1 rpm; there was also an uncertainty in the spin axis attitude, which translated into an unknown clock angle of deployment. The variability in this angle and magnitude of deployment implied the existence of a non-negligible risk of a lunar impact, which was evaluated for various potential launch dates. We present the results of Monte Carlo analyses and compute the pertinent maneuvers to avoid it. In addition, we present a comparison with the actual deployment once the mission launched by reconstructing our trajectory with tracking data. On November 16th 2022 BioSentinel successfully deployed from ICPS and the navigation team started to receive 2-way Doppler and Sequential Ranging data from the DSN. We processed early data to try to obtain a first ephemeris using Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) methods such as the least squares. Soon after deployment, the spacecraft was tumbling and entered safe mode, creating a period where the tracking data were sparse. The mission team recovered the spacecraft and after four tracking passes, we solved for a first ephemeris that was sent to the DSN for better tracking of the spacecraft. After propagating this first ephemeris solution, we determined that we avoided impact with a margin of a few hundred km from the lunar surface. More tracking data over the next few days (from DSN as well as ESA antennas) allowed for a more refined orbit solution predicting a periselene altitude of 406 km and a lunar eclipse lasting 36.5 minutes. Therefore, BioSentinel operators aborted any correction maneuvers. This periselene altitude also gave us the necessary energy to achieve a heliocentric orbit. The next challenge was due to the necessary adjustments in our orbit determination method due to the large energy boost resulting from the lunar flyby. After a series of tracking passes we were able to get a nominal solution that resulted into a stable trajectory. This paper discusses in detail the navigation performance using the X-band IRIS transponder, as well as the challenges and lessons learned prior to and during this deep space, CubeSat mission.

Andres Dono Perez↗

NASA NTRS1994

Numerical and experimental analyses of the radiant heat flux produced by quartz heating systems

A method is developed for predicting the radiant heat flux distribution produced by tungsten filament, tubular fused-quartz envelope heating systems with reflectors. The method is an application of Monte Carlo simulation, which takes the form of a random walk or ray tracing scheme. The method is applied to four systems of increasing complexity, including a single lamp without a reflector, a single lamp with a Hat reflector, a single lamp with a parabolic reflector, and up to six lamps in a six-lamp contoured-reflector heating unit. The application of the Monte Carlo method to the simulation of the thermal radiation generated by these systems is discussed. The procedures for numerical implementation are also presented. Experiments were conducted to study these quartz heating systems and to acquire measurements of the corresponding empirical heat flux distributions for correlation with analysis. The experiments were conducted such that several complicating factors could be isolated and studied sequentially. Comparisons of the experimental results with analysis are presented and discussed. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated results was obtained in all cases. This study shows that this method can be used to analyze very complicated quartz heating systems and can account for factors such as spectral properties, specular reflection from curved surfaces, source enhancement due to reflectors and/or adjacent sources, and interaction with a participating medium in a straightforward manner.

Turner, Travis L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Efficient Filter for Measurements Corrupted with Cauchy Noise

This paper present a new sequential filter for state estimation using measurements corrupted with Cauchy noise. The new filter retains the familiar structure of the Kalman filter and is computationally efficient. In addition, it does not exhibit computational complexity which grows or varies in time like existing methods. These results are based upon a nearly 50 year old result by Masreliez in which the conditional mean estimator is approximated via linearization of the measurement predictive density. This work derives the new filter, provides discussion regarding practical implementation, and present Monte Carlo analyses to validate and assess the new filter's performance.

James S McCabe↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

Evans, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling and Simulation Techniques for the NASA SLS Service Module Panel Separation Event; from Loosely-Coupled Euler to Fully-Coupled 6-DOF, Time-Accurate, Navier-Stokes Methodologies

An aerodynamic database has been generated for use by the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program to analyze Service Module (SM) panel jettison from the NASA SLS vehicle. The database is a combination of CFD data for the panel aerodynamic coefficients, and MATLAB code written to query the CFD data. The Cart3D inviscid CFD flow solver was used to generate the panel aerodynamic coefficients for static panel orientations and free stream conditions that can occur during the jettison event. The MATLAB code performs the multivariate interpolation to obtain aerodynamic coefficients. The MATLAB code uses input for SM panel parameters and returns the SM panel aerodynamic force and moment coefficients for use with a Six-Degree-of-Freedom (6-DOF) motion solver to model the jettison event. This paper examines the accuracy of the sequential-static database approach by modeling the panel jettison event with a fully-coupled, time-dependent, viscous, moving-body CFD simulation. The fully-coupled simulation is obtained using the Loci/Chem unstructured Navier-Stokes CFD solver. The results show that the fully-coupled approach agrees well with the loosely-coupled database/6-DOF approach, indicating that unsteady effects are minimal for the panel jettison event. These results suggest that the database/6-DOF approach is sufficient. In addition, this paper presents the development of an uncertainty model for use in Monte Carlo analysis of the panel jettison event. Here viscous CFD simulations are obtained with Loci/Chem and compared to the inviscid CFD forces and moments. An uncertainty model based on model-form error and numerical error is presented.

Hall, Leslie H.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Efficient Sequential Attitude Estimation from Vector Observations

This paper presents a computationally efficient, sequential method for attitude matrix estimation using gyro and vector measurements. The method is based on a recently introduced, minimal-parameter third-order method for solving the orthogonal matrix differential equation in R(sup n). In the three-dimensional case, these third-order attitude parameters can be interpreted as temporal-integrals of the body-frame angular velocity components. A nonlinear algorithm is developed, which uses this minimal set of three parameters to estimate the nine-parameter direction-cosine matrix. Having an extremely simple kinematic equation, these parameters render the resulting estimator highly computationally efficient. An orthogonalization procedure, incorporated into the measurement processing stage, enhances the accuracy and stability of the resulting algorithm, yet retains reasonable simplicity. The performance of the estimator is demonstrated via a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Oshman, Yaakov↗

NASA NTRS2014

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

This talk presents a comprehensive approach to filter modeling for generalized covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work that allowed for partitioning of the state space into solve-for'' and consider'' parameters, accounted for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and textita priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator's epoch time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the variance sandpile'' and the sensitivity mosaic,'' and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Navagation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

n/a↗

NASA NTRS2012

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2010

Design and Implementation of the Automated Rendezvous Targeting Algorithms for Orion

The Orion vehicle will be designed to perform several rendezvous missions: rendezvous with the ISS in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), rendezvous with the EDS/Altair in LEO, a contingency rendezvous with the ascent stage of the Altair in Low Lunar Orbit (LLO) and a contingency rendezvous in LLO with the ascent and descent stage in the case of an aborted lunar landing. Therefore, it is not difficult to realize that each of these scenarios imposes different operational, timing, and performance constraints on the GNC system. To this end, a suite of on-board guidance and targeting algorithms have been designed to meet the requirement to perform the rendezvous independent of communications with the ground. This capability is particularly relevant for the lunar missions, some of which may occur on the far side of the moon. This paper will describe these algorithms which are designed to be structured and arranged in such a way so as to be flexible and able to safely perform a wide variety of rendezvous trajectories. The goal of the algorithms is not to merely fly one specific type of canned rendezvous profile. Conversely, it was designed from the start to be general enough such that any type of trajectory profile can be flown.(i.e. a coelliptic profile, a stable orbit rendezvous profile, and a expedited LLO rendezvous profile, etc) all using the same rendezvous suite of algorithms. Each of these profiles makes use of maneuver types which have been designed with dual goals of robustness and performance. They are designed to converge quickly under dispersed conditions and they are designed to perform many of the functions performed on the ground today. The targeting algorithms consist of a phasing maneuver (NC), an altitude adjust maneuver (NH), and plane change maneuver (NPC), a coelliptic maneuver (NSR), a Lambert targeted maneuver, and several multiple-burn targeted maneuvers which combine one of more of these algorithms. The derivation and implementation of each of these algorithms will be discussed in detail, as well and the Rendezvous Targeting "wrapper" which will sequentially tie them all together into a single onboard targeting tool which can produce a final integrated rendezvous trajectory. In a similar fashion, the various guidance modes available for flying out each of these maneuvers will be discussed as well. This paradigm of having the onboard guidance & targeting capability described above is different than the way the Space Shuttle has operated thus far. As a result, a discussion of these differences in terms of operations and ground and crew intervention will also be discussed. However, the general framework of how the mission designers on the ground first perform all mission design and planning functions, and then uplink that burn plan to the vehicle ensures that the ground will be involved to ensure safety and reliability. The only real difference is which of these functions will be done onboard vs. on the ground as done currently. Finally, this paper will describe the performance of each of these algorithms individually as well as the entire suite of algorithms as applied to the Orion ISS and EDS/Altair rendezvous missions in LEO. These algorithms have been incorporated in both a Linear Covariance environment and a Monte Carlo environment and the results of these dispersion analyses will be presented in the paper as well.

DSouza, Christopher↗