Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “seismic response”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Induced microseismicity and tremor signatures illuminate different slip behaviours in a natural shale fault reactivated by a fluid pressure stimulation (Mont Terri)

SUMMARY Fault slip induced by fluid perturbation in shale formations may only lead to a sparse seismicity. However, fault slip may strongly impact the integrity of shale formations that serve as caprocks for geological reservoirs holding buoyant fluids such as CO2, natural gas or hydrogen. A better understanding of the fluid reactivation processes of fault and the seismic triggering process is therefore critical for reservoir monitoring and fault stability. Here we analyse the seismic responses of a shale fault exposed to fluid pressurization during an in situ field-scale injection experiment at ∼340 m depth in the Mont Terri underground research laboratory (Switzerland). Two main types of seismic signals are observed as the fault was activated and started to slowly slip. After an aseismic phase, we observed tremor signatures and an increase in noise amplitude, which were directly associated with the slowly propagating fault slip in response to fluid injection. These signatures were later followed by micro-earthquakes that seem to occur further away from the fluid-pressurized area. We interpret these micro-earthquakes to be triggered by stress perturbations from the main slip growth. These two classes of seismic responses therefore highlight two different processes. Tremors seem to be a more direct observation for the fluid-induced slip propagation than micro-earthquakes. Even hidden in the noise, they precede earthquake failures, thus providing a useful tool for monitoring fluid leakage activated by slow deformation on low permeable shale faults, with applications for sealing integrity of caprocks.

De Barros, Louis (ORCID:0000000255419162)↗

Time-Lapse Integration at FWU: Fluids, Rock Physics, Numerical Model Integration, and Field Data Comparison

We present the current status of time-lapse seismic integration at the Farnsworth (FWU) CO2 WAG (water-alternating-gas) EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) project at Ochiltree County, northwest Texas. As a potential carbon sequestration mechanism, CO2 WAG projects will be subject to some degree of monitoring and verification, either as a regulatory requirement or to qualify for economic incentives. In order to evaluate the viability of time-lapse seismic as a monitoring method the Southwest Partnership (SWP) has conducted time-lapse seismic monitoring at FWU using the 3D Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) method. The efficacy of seismic time-lapse depends on a number of key factors, which vary widely from one application to another. Most important among these are the thermophysical properties of the original fluid in place and the displacing fluid, followed by the petrophysical properties of the rock matrix, which together determine the effective elastic properties of the rock fluid system. We present systematic analysis of fluid thermodynamics and resulting thermophysical properties, petrophysics and rock frame elastic properties, and elastic property modeling through fluid substitution using data collected at FWU. These analyses will be framed in realistic scenarios presented by the FWU CO2 WAG development. The resulting fluid/rock physics models will be applied to output from the calibrated FWU compositional reservoir simulation model to forward model the time-lapse seismic response. Modeled results are compared with field time-lapse seismic measurements and strategies for numerical model feedback/update are discussed. While mechanical effects are neglected in the work presented here, complementary parallel studies are underway in which laboratory measurements are introduced to introduce stress dependence of matrix elastic moduli.

4D↗

Profiling the Quito basin (Ecuador) using seismic ambient noise

SUMMARY Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with more than 2.5 M inhabitants, is exposed to a high seismic hazard due to its proximity to the Pacific subduction zone and active crustal faults, both capable of generating significant earthquakes. Furthermore, the city is located in an intermontane piggy-back basin prone to seismic wave amplification. To understand the basin’s seismic response and characterize its geological structure, 20 broad and medium frequency band seismic stations were deployed in Quito’s urban area between May 2016 and July 2018 that continuously recorded ambient seismic noise. We first compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios to determine the resonant frequency distribution in the entire basin. Secondly, we cross-correlate seismic stations operating simultaneously to retrieve interstations surface-wave Green’s functions in the frequency range of 0.1–2 Hz. We find that Love waves travelling in the basin’s longitudinal direction (NNE–SSW) show much clearer correlograms than those from Rayleigh waves. We then compute Love wave phase-velocity dispersion curves and invert them in conjunction with the HVSR curves to obtain shear-wave velocity profiles throughout the city. The inversions highlight a clear difference in the basin’s structure between its northern and southern parts. In the centre and northern areas, the estimated basin depth and mean shear-wave velocity are about 200 m and 1800 ms−1, respectively, showing resonance frequency values between 0.6 and 0.7 Hz. On the contrary, the basement’s depth and shear-wave velocity in the southern part are about 900 m and 2500 ms−1, having a low resonance frequency value of around 0.3 Hz. This difference in structure between the centre-north and the south of the basin explains the spatial distribution of low-frequency seismic amplifications observed during the Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake in April 2016 in Quito.

Pacheco, D. (ORCID:0000000282355096)↗

Revealing complex subsurface dynamics with continuous seismic monitoring: Observations using distributed acoustic sensing and surface orbital vibrators during hydraulic fracturing

Understanding hydraulic fracturing is crucial to improving the stimulation of unconventional reservoirs and increasing fluid production. This study develops a novel seismic monitoring technology using distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and surface orbital vibrators (SOV) to capture fracture seismic response and mechanical properties at high temporal intervals. We analyze continuous time-lapse vertical seismic profiling (VSP) data acquired every hour during the first nine days of treatment of an unconventional reservoir in the Austin Chalk/Eagle Field Laboratory. The VSP data contain clear seismic signals scattered from the activated fractures. The spatiotemporal changes of the fracture reflectivity revealed by the SOV/DAS data correlate well with the observations of fracture locations inferred from low-frequency DAS data. These results capture the fracture opening and closure processes, as well as highlight potential prestage activations of the fractures due to hydraulic connectivity with preexisting fracture systems. Therefore, analysis of the presented data set provides a unique opportunity to understand fracture initiation and subsequent evolution, not only in the context of unconventional resources but also in enhanced geothermal systems.

Correa, Julia↗

Evaluation of ASCE 4-16 and AISC 43-18 (Draft) for use in the Risk-Informed Performance-Based Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plant Structures, Systems, and Components

This report describes the assessment of ASCE Standards 4-16 and 43-18 (Draft) for use in the Risk-Informed Performance-Based (RIPB) seismic design of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) at nuclear power plants. This work was performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Regulatory Research (RES), to support potential endorsement of these industry standards for the design of nuclear power plants based on the RIPB approach. Currently, the NRC endorses a deterministic design approach for demonstrating the design adequacy of SSCs based on the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800) and NRC Regulatory Guides. In the RIPB approach, the design criteria are developed to achieve a target performance goal, which is defined by the annual frequency of occurrence of the design basis earthquake (i.e., Seismic Design Category) and the acceptable level of structural performance (i.e., Limit State) for the SSCs. ASCE 4-16 provides methods for performing a seismic analysis of structures to obtain the seismic response of these structures (e.g., building displacements, accelerations, in-structure response spectra) which are used in the design of the SSCs. It also provides methods for performing seismic analysis of SSCs to determine the seismic demands (e.g. member forces and displacements) needed to design individual SSCs. ASCE 43-18 (Draft) provides the criteria for the seismic design of SSCs using the seismic demands developed in ASCE 4-16. The use of ASCE Standard 43-18 (Draft), along with ASCE 4-16, provides the criteria for the seismic design of the SSCs. ASCE 43-18 (DRAFT) relies on other consensus codes and standards such as ACI 349 for reinforced concrete, AISC/N690 for steel structures, ASME Section III for pressure-retaining mechanical components and Containments, and IEEE-344 for Class 1E equipment. The goal of this technical review was to assess the adequacy of the provisions in these standards for use by the NRC in developing regulatory guidance for design of SSCs in nuclear power plants, based on the RIPB approach. The research reported herein describes the basis for acceptance of the new standards and identifies areas where additional staff guidance is needed for the seismic design of SSCs at nuclear power plants. This technical review has determined that ASCE 4-16 and ASCE 43-18 (Draft) provide an appropriate framework for the seismic design of SSCs at nuclear power plants using a Risk-Informed Performance-Based approach. However, some of the criteria therein warrant exceptions, qualifications, and/or clarifications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)

This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Creation of a Mixed-Mode Fracture Network at Mesoscale Through Hydraulic Fracturing and Shear Stimulation

Enhanced Geothermal Systems could provide a substantial contribution to the global energy demand if their implementation could overcome inherent challenges. Examples are insufficient created permeability, early thermal breakthrough, and unacceptable induced seismicity. In this study we report on the seismic response of a mesoscale hydraulic fracturing experiment performed at 1.5-km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We have measured the seismic activity by utilizing a 100-kHz, continuous seismic monitoring system deployed in six 60-m length monitoring boreholes surrounding the experimental domain in 3-D. The achieved location uncertainty was on the order of 1 m and limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events. These uncertainties were corroborated by detections of fracture intersections at the monitoring boreholes. Three intervals of the dedicated injection borehole were hydraulically stimulated by water injection at pressures up to 33 MPa and flow rates up to 5 L/min. We located 1,933 seismic events during several injection periods. The recorded seismicity delineates a complex fracture network comprised of multistrand hydraulic fractures and shear-reactivated, preexisting planes of weakness that grew unilaterally from the point of initiation. We find that heterogeneity of stress dictates the seismic outcome of hydraulic stimulations, even when relying on theoretically well-behaved hydraulic fractures. Once hydraulic fractures intersected boreholes, the boreholes acted as a pressure relief and fracture propagation ceased. In order to create an efficient subsurface heat exchanger, production boreholes should not be drilled before the end of hydraulic stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Time-lapse seismic data inversion for estimating reservoir parameters using deep learning

Geologic carbon sequestration involves the injection of captured carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]) into subsurface formations for long-term storage. The movement and fate of the injected [Formula: see text] plume is of great concern to regulators because monitoring helps to identify potential leakage zones and determines the possibility of safe long-term storage. To address this concern, we design a deep-learning framework for [Formula: see text] saturation monitoring to determine the geologic controls on the storage of the injected [Formula: see text]. We use different combinations of porosities and permeabilities for a given reservoir to generate saturation and velocity models. We train the deep-learning model with a few time-lapse seismic images and their corresponding changes in saturation values for a particular [Formula: see text] injection site. The deep-learning model learns the mapping from the change in the time-lapse seismic response to the change in [Formula: see text] saturation during the training phase. We then apply the trained model to data sets comprising different time-lapse seismic image slices (corresponding to different time instances) generated using different porosity and permeability distributions that are not part of the training to estimate the [Formula: see text] saturation values along with the plume extent. Our algorithm provides a deep-learning assisted framework for the direct estimation of [Formula: see text] saturation values and plume migration in heterogeneous formations using the time-lapse seismic data. Our method improves the efficiency of time-lapse inversion by streamlining the large number of intermediate steps in the conventional time-lapse inversion workflow. This method also helps to incorporate the geologic uncertainty for a given reservoir by accounting for the statistical distribution of porosity and permeability during the training phase. Tests on different examples verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Stratigraphy‐Induced Localization of Microseismicity During CO 2 Injection in Illinois Basin

Abstract Subsurface fluid injection stimulates complex hydromechanical interaction, necessitating the integration of geomechanical data across spatial and temporal scales to consider the sophisticated behavior. Induced seismic response is usually associated with the complex reservoir architecture and pre‐existing features that are three‐dimensional, such as local stratigraphy, fractures, faults, and other discontinuities. This study encompasses laboratory characterization of the coupled hydromechanical response of cores extracted from rock formations in Illinois Basin: reservoir ‐ Mt. Simon sandstone, basal seal ‐ Argenta sandstone, and crystalline basement ‐ Precambrian rhyolite. High‐resolution numerical modeling allows considering the three‐dimensional complexity of the Illinois Basin Decatur Project with spatial resolution comparable to one of the active seismic surveys. A detailed reconstruction of the evolving state of stress in formations lacking direct stress measurements is achieved by numerical modeling that integrated laboratory‐derived hydromechanical properties, a porosity‐permeability relationship, active seismic data, and an inverted three‐dimensional porosity distribution. It appears that the microseismic clusters, mainly observed in the crystalline basement during the injection, are linked to zones experiencing more critically stressed conditions prior to injection. These zones have a potential for reactivation during the injection and are attributed to the specific local stratigraphy of the injection site, as well as transfer of triggering perturbations during the injection.

Bondarenko, N. [University of Illinois Urbana‐Cham↗

Seismic Performance of Conventional and Additively Manufactured U-Shaped Flexural Plates

U-shape flexural plates (UFPs) have gained significant attention in seismic structural design due to their ability to provide stable hysteresis behaviour and serve as effective energy-dissipating devices. Concurrently, Additive Manufacturing (AM) has advanced significantly, enabling the production of metallic components with mechanical properties comparable to those of conventionally manufactured cold-rolled materials. This study aims to explore the seismic response of single and double UFP fabricated through Laser Powder Based Fusion (LPBF) and conventional cold rolled 316L stainless steel (SS). The experimental results are evaluated based on force-displacement hysteresis behaviour, energy dissipation capacity, load-carrying capacity, and stiffness degradation. The findings confirm the efficacy of AM-fabricated UFPs for seismic energy dissipation. Additionally, the results suggest the potential for further improvement through the optimization of AM process parameters, such as laser scan speed, hatch spacing, and layer thickness, to enhance hysteretic performance and energy dissipation characteristics.

Risal, Kshitiz [Idaho State University]↗

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PARETO 0.5.0 Release

PARETO 0.5.0 Release. Highlights: Treatment Center Modeling - New case study with desalination, clean brine, and evaporation treatment technologies - New option to reduce disposal capacity due to Seismic Response Areas (SRA) - New option to consider water sharing outside of system General Updates - New features for Sankey Diagram visualization (multiple regions, filtered time periods) - Introduce badges to README.md - Convert documentation to ASCII LaTeX - Code cleaning and maintenance - Correct strategic model documentation typo - Update and format treatment demo input spreadsheet Bug Fixes - Fix water quality operational model results printing bug - Piping and trucking variables are now built only over defined arcs instead of all possible connections - Revise pipeline expansion cost constraints, ensure that all pipelines built incur cost

PARETO,PARETO-UI,PSE,Process Systems Engineering,P↗

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (Phase III Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership (BSCSP) pursued a Phase III demonstration project at Kevin Dome in north central Montana. Kevin Dome covers approximately 700 square miles and is a naturally occurring CO 2 reservoir that is flanked by oil and gas fields. The carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is in the upper Devonian Duperow (carbonate) formation and does not reach the spill point of the dome; therefore, the dome has potential as a CO 2 sequestration reservoir, a CO 2 supply, or as both if anthropogenic sources and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations are associated with the dome. Kevin Dome could potentially act as a buffer to continue accepting anthropogenic CO 2 when EOR flooding operations are interrupted or completed. The project objective was to produce one million tonnes of CO 2 from the gas cap of Kevin Dome, pipe it laterally, inject, and re-store it in the brine leg of the same formation to test the hub / buffer storage concept. This was to be accomplished by drilling up to five production wells, building a short pipeline and compression facilities, and drilling an injection well and several monitoring wells. BSCSP commenced outreach and site characterization activities including acquiring baseline data for near-surface insurance monitoring, acquiring 3-dimensional, 9-component surface seismic over the project area, drilling two test wells (one in the production area and one in the injection area), coring key intervals, and performing comprehensive logging. Well tests of those wells revealed two barriers to the project. The production (Danielson 33-17) well was perforated in multiple zones but failed to produce any significant CO 2 . This was despite being drilled in the near vicinity of a historic well that had produced 3700 MCF per day in a drill stem test. Modeling indicated that this was likely due to a phase change during production causing a temperature drop resulting in hydrate and/or water ice formation that clogged the formation. Tests of the injection zone (Wallewein 22-1) well indicated total dissolved solids (TDS) slightly below the EPA required 10,000 parts per million (ppm) for a Class VI underground injection control permit. While the project was initiated before Class VI rules were promulgated, and this was an experimental project (seemingly qualified for a Class V permit), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicated that injection would require a Class VI permit. The low salinity result was unexpected as contours plotted based on regional formation water quality data indicated an expected TDS above 20,000 ppm, and wells between the recharge zone and the Wallewein well tested above 10,000 ppm. Faced with the inability to obtain an injection permit, the demonstration project could not proceed. However, the project had generated valuable samples and data on a large natural analog including 32 sq. mi. of 3-D, 9-C seismic, 430 ft. of carbonate core covering seven different depositional environments taken from areas with, and without the presence of CO 2 , 30 ft. of core of two caprocks, a tight carbonate and an anhydrite, a full set of modern logs on both wells, and well tests. DOE decided to re-scope the project around completing studies utilizing this data. This report covers both the initial scope and the re-scope (Task / Section numbers preceded with an R). While the report covers a wide range of project activities, highlights of this work include: Development of a geostatic model using neural nets to match well logs to facies and using multi-waveform seismic to inform reservoir heterogeneity; Unique mechanical testing of permeability – stress relationship in two caprock materials; Development of full waveform inversion to generate a high resolution velocity model; Model development for dual permeability (fracture and matrix) systems to better account for matrix-matrix interactions; Joint seismic wave inversion (including the first quadr-joint inversion) exhibiting better imaging of a challenging reservoir zone in stiff rock; Core flow and core flood results on a reactive carbonate; and Innovative laboratory measurements of seismic response of fractured core as a function of fluid fill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Silencing of U.S. Campuses Following the COVID-19 Response: Evaluating Root Mean Square Seismic Amplitudes Using Power Spectral Density Data

In response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, many populated and active regions have become deserted and show significant reductions in their background seismicity, especially campuses across the United States (U.S.). Seismic sensors located in the vicinity of or within U.S. campuses show that anthropogenic seismic noise remains elevated during the ordinary, nonpandemic, academic year, only subduing during periods of recess (e.g., winter break). Here, we use power spectral density (PSD) data computed by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center for quality assessment to calculate root mean square (rms) amplitude and analyze the effects of the COVID-19 school closures. We processed and analyzed PSD data for 46 seismic stations located within 50 m of a U.S. university or college. Results show that 42 campus stations show an overall rms drop following a statewide school closure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Finite Element Modeling of Spent Nuclear Fuel in Dry Storage under Seismic Excitation

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is currently stored at independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs) at nuclear power plant sites across the US. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is currently working to understand the response of SNF during a seismic event. This investigation is part of a long-term effort by DOE to quantify the external mechanical loads on SNF. The SFWST program has recently completed campaigns evaluating SNF behavior during normal conditions of transport and in 30 cm package drop scenarios; both campaigns included a combination of testing and modeling. Likewise, the investigation into seismic response of SNF will include full-size shake table tests of a vertical storage overpack containing instrumented surrogate fuel assemblies, as well as pre- and post-test finite element modeling. This work focuses on the development of finite element models simulating the planned test configuration. The seismic response is calculated at two scales: at the package level, and at the fuel level. The package level model evaluates the behavior of the storage overpack and its contents in response to the ground motions of a representative earthquake. The motion of the package is input to the fuel level model, which consists of a detailed finite element model of a 17x17 or 16x16 pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly or of a 10x10 boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel assembly. The stress and strain on individual components such as fuel rods and guide tubes are extracted from this model. This work details the SNF response to various input ground motions, considering representative earthquakes in the Central and Eastern US under various site conditions. Also discussed is the development of a “reduced scope” finite element model of the SNF, which consists of a single fuel rod while retaining the dynamic response of the entire fuel assembly. This reduced scope model addresses the significant computational expense of modeling the SNF under long-duration input ground motions and facilitates simulating additional parameter variations of the model beyond the as-tested configuration. The modeling results provide important insight that will help to inform future testing and modeling efforts by the SFWST program to close the knowledge gap related to external loads on SNF.

Kadooka, Kevin↗

Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings

Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗