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Reply to “Comment on ‘The Reduced Detection Rate of Signals That Are Hidden by Earthquakes: Case Studies with Spotlight Detectors That Operate at Seismic Arrays,’ by Joshua D. Carmichael, Brent G. Delbridge, and Richard Alfaro-Diaz” by Paul G. Richards

We reply to a comment that Paul G. Richards (Richards, 2026) directed to an article by Carmichael et al. (2025). Richards expressed concern over two issues. The first issue relates to the size of the explosions discussed in the article. The second relates to the probability that earthquakes and explosions sourced near the same location coincide in time, by chance. We do not address the first issue because the original article does not assign significance to the size of the explosions from the point of view of an experimental party. We do respond to Richards’ comment on the second issue and claim that it can be explained through a clarification about conditional versus joint probabilities. Our present discussion, therefore, describes the difference between the conditional probability that a correlator fails, given that an explosion and earthquake coincidently occur in the same place, and the joint probability that a correlator fails while an earthquake and explosion also coincidentally occur in the same place. This latter, joint probability appears to be rare. We clarify that our original article did not treat the joint probability, only the conditional probability.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Network analysis of earthquake ground motion spatial correlation: a case study with the San Jacinto seismic nodal array

SUMMARY The spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion intensity can be measured from strong motion data; however, the data used in past studies is sparsely sampled in space, and only the interstation distance was considered as a correlation variable. These limitations mean that we have only weak constraints on the true correlation structure of ground motion and that potentially important aspects of spatial correlation are unconstrained. In this study, we combine a large-N seismic array and graph analytics to explore this issue at a local scale using small local and regional earthquakes. Our result suggests site conditions, and how they interact with the incident seismic wavefield, strongly condition the spatial correlation of ground motion. Future progress in characterizing ground motion spatial variability will require dense wavefield measurements, either through nodal deployments, or perhaps distributed acoustic sensing measurements, of seismic wavefields. Aftershock sequences of major earthquakes would provide particularly data-rich targets of opportunity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of Time Window and Spectral Measurement Options on Empirical Green’s Function Analysis Using DAS Array and Seismic Stations

The recorded seismic waveform is a convolution of event source term, path term, and station term. Removing high-frequency attenuation due to path effect is a challenging problem. Empirical Green’s function (EGF) method uses nearly collocated small earthquakes to correct the path and station terms for larger events recorded at the same station. However, this method is subject to variability due to many factors. Here, we focus on three events that were well recorded by the seismic network and a rapid response distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) array. Using a suite of high-quality EGF events, we assess the influence of time window, spectral measurement options, and types of data on the spectral ratio and relative source time function (RSTF) results. Increased number of tapers (from 2 to 16) tends to increase the measured corner frequency and reduce the source complexity. Extended long time window (e.g., 30 s) tends to produce larger variability of corner frequency. The multitaper algorithm that simultaneously optimizes both target and EGF spectra produces the most stable corner-frequency measurements. The stacked spectral ratio and RSTF from the DAS array are more stable than two nearby seismic stations, and are comparable to stacked results from the seismic network, suggesting that DAS array has strong potential in source characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Earthquake detection in a simulated lunar regolith using distributed acoustic sensing

Current models of inner lunar geology have largely been inferred from the seismic experiments and observations performed during the Apollo missions that comprised a relatively small number of seismic instruments. Refining constraints on fundamental lunar relationships such as crust-mantle and mantle-core boundaries in the future will require seismic arrays spanning larger epicentral distances. A promising technology for installing dense seismic arrays with minimal human effort is distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), an approach that allows a single length of fiber optic cable to act as hundreds or thousands of sensors when coupled with a DAS interrogator. While terrestrial uses of DAS technology for seismic monitoring rely on burying the cable to maximize fidelity of seismic signal transmission to the fiber, digging meters of trench to bury optical fiber on lunar or planetary surfaces is logistically infeasible. To evaluate DAS signal attenuation due to surface deployment of cable in lunar regolith, we completed earthquake detection analyses that evaluated the sensitivity of an optic-fiber DAS system to seismic signals at different burial depths. We deployed a single-mode fiber in a 10-m open-bottom wooden box filled with a lunar regolith simulant (LRS) with fiber buried at different depths within the LRS and recorded signals for four regional and local earthquakes. The results were used to identify and evaluate signal attenuation in surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber in the LRS. Burial depth responses to active-source signals were also evaluated similar to previous studies characterizing DAS sensitivity of surface-deployed fiber. Atmospheric noise was minimal as the cable was deployed in an indoor environment; however, where observed, atmospheric and anthropogenic noise was filtered out using the same bandpass filtering used to identify earthquake events. We found that signal attenuation of the surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber was relatively high in active-source experiments but was not consistently observed in earthquake signals. That burial depth is not highly correlated to attenuation of the observed earthquake signals indicates that in a noise-limited environment, placing DAS-interrogated fiber directly at the regolith surface may be a promising deployment strategy to consider for sensing remote seismic signals during lunar exploration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PN velocity beneath Western New Mexico and Eastern Arizona

The experiment involved observing Pn arrivals on an areal array of 7 seismic stations located in the transition zone and along the Jemez lineament. Explosions in coal and copper mines in New Mexico and Arizona were used as energy sources as well as military detonations at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, Yuma, Arizona, and the Nevada Test Site. Very preliminary results suggest a Pn velocity of 7.94 km/s (with a fairly large uncertainty) beneath the study area. The Pn delay times, which can be converted to estimates of crustal thickness given knowledge of the velocity structure of the crust increase both to the north and east of Springerville, Arizona. As a constraint on the velocity of Pn, researchers analyzed the reversed refraction line GNOME-HARDHAT which passes through Springerville oriented NW to SE. This analysis resulted in a Pn velocity of 7.9-8.0 km/s for the transition zone. These preliminary results suggest that a normal Pn velocity might persist even though the crust thins (from north to south) by 15 km along the length of the Arizona-New Mexico border. If the upper mantle is currently hot anywhere in western New Mexico or eastern Arizona then the dimensions of the heat source (or sources) might be small compared to the intra-station distances of the seismic arrays used to estimate the velocity of Pn.

Jaksha, L. H.↗

Array-Based Seismic Measurements of OSIRIS-REx’s Re-Entry

The return home of the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft in September 2023 marked only the fifth time that an artificial object entered the Earth’s atmosphere at interplanetary velocities. Although rare, such events serve as valuable analogs for natural meteoroid re-entries; enabling study of hypersonic dynamics, shock wave generation, and acoustic-to-seismic coupling. Here, in this study, we report on the signatures recorded by a dense (100 m scale) 11-station array located almost directly underneath the capsule’s point of peak atmospheric heating in northern Nevada. Seismic data are presented, which allow inferences to be made about the shape of the shock wave’s footprint on the surface, the capsule’s trajectory, and its flight parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cardinal: Seismic and Geoacoustic Array Processing

Data collected via seismic and infrasound array deployments are leveraged in the geosciences to detect and characterize a myriad of natural and anthropogenic sources. These deployments consist of numerous sensors placed in a predetermined configuration to amplify signal strength and improve the efficacy of array processing techniques used to measure signal directionality and waveform coherence. High‐fidelity feature extraction is often predicated on interstation distance as well as the frequency content and wavelength of an incident signal. Numerous array processing softwares analyze data in sequential frequency bands to obtain a more detailed characterization of a signal. However, current algorithms are limited in their ability to determine optimal array configuration for each band. We introduce an open‐source Python code, called Cardinal, to process seismic and infrasound array data in discretized time–frequency space with the option of applying an adaptive array design to determine optimal subarray configuration for each frequency band. To reduce computational time, the array processing step can be run in parallel using multithreading. Furthermore, the software has the capability to aggregate array processing results from different time–frequency pixels to produce separate sets of detections, or families, with added utility via the application of an adaptive semblance threshold, which aids in isolating signals‐of‐interest from coherent background noise. Upon appropriate configuration, Cardinal exhibits the potential to combine distinct seismic and infrasound phases into separate families.

Adaptive Array↗

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Low-Environmental-Impact Monitoring of CO 2 Using Seismic Methods in North Dakota

Conference poster presented at American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Conference, Houston, Texas, March 28–30, 2022. In 2021, the Energy & Environmental Research Center initiated a multiyear research project associated with Red Trail Energy’s Carbon Capture and Storage Project. The research is based on the scalable automated sparse seismic array (SASSA), a lower-cost, less invasive seismic method that could replace the large-scale 3D seismic surveys by using four stationary seismic sources called surface orbital vibrators (SOVs) and a small number of seismic sensors deployed sparsely within the same 8-square-mile area investigated with a 3D seismic survey conducted in 2019.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Crustal deformation and seismic measurements in the region of McDonald Observatory, West Texas

The arrival times of regional and local earthquakes and located earthquakes in the Basin and Range province of Texas and in the adjacent areas of Chihuahua, Mexico from January 1976 to August 1980 at the UT'NASA seismic array are summarized. The August 1931 Texas earthquake is reevaluated and the seismicity and crustal structure of West Texas is examined. A table of seismic stations is included.

Dorman, H. J.↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods of Association Tested on Dense Nodal Arrays

The association of phase picks to form events is one of the fundamental components of seismology. Large and dense sensor networks, such as >1000 geophone arrays (and distributed acoustic sensing), offer unique challenges in association due to the vast numbers of observations and high likelihood of errant picks. In addition, the large number of stations can greatly increase the time it takes to perform the association. For this reason, machine learning (ML) methods might provide a more optimal method of association for such networks. In this work, we examine how well ML methods (e.g., Gaussian mixture model association, PhaseLink, and Graph Earthquake Neural Interpretation Engine) can incorporate dense seismic arrays into regional networks and how well they handle the increasing numbers of stations. Here, we test their capabilities on two dense seismic deployments, one within Rock Valley Nevada (52 nodes and a 9-station sparse local network), and the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma dense nodal array (>1800 vertical-component geophones). Processing data from these two different styles of dense seismic deployments allows testing of how the ML algorithms can merge array data with a broader regional network, how they deal with poorly picked phases, and how they handle anthropogenic noise. We compare the ML-associated bulletins to those obtained using the Rapid Earthquake Association and Location algorithm, a more traditional method of association. We find that there are very small differences in results between the methods for small networks (<100 stations) with low pick rates. For large networks (>1000), there are enough errant picks that some of the ML methods start to create false events out of noise. We also find that the ML methods vary in computation time significantly but are all faster than the traditional method tested here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using Dense Array Waveform Correlations to Build a Velocity Model with Stochastic Variability

In an ongoing effort to improve 3D seismic-wave propagation modeling for frequencies up to 10 Hz, we used cross correlations between vertical-component waveforms from an underground chemical explosion to estimate the statistical properties of small-scale velocity heterogeneities. The waveforms were recorded by a dense 2D seismic array deployed during the Source Physics Experiments for event number 5 (SPE-5) in a series of six underground chemical explosions, conducted at the Nevada National Security Site. The array consisted of 996 geophones with a 50–100 m grid spacing, deployed at the SPE site at the north end of the Yucca Flat basin. The SPE were conducted to investigate the generation and propagation of seismic and acoustic waves from underground explosions. Comparisons of decay rates of waveform cross correlations as function of interstation distance, computed for observed and synthetic seismograms from the SPE-5 chemical explosion, were used to constrain statistical properties of correlated stochastic velocity perturbations representing small-scale heterogeneities added to a geology-based velocity model of the Yucca Flat basin. Using comparisons between recorded and simulated waveform cross correlations, we were able to recover sets of statistical properties of small-scale velocity perturbations in the velocity model that produce the best-fit between the recorded and simulated ground motion. The stochastic velocity fluctuations in the velocity model that produced the smallest misfits have a horizontal correlation distance of between 400 and 800 m, a vertical correlation distance between 100 and 200 m, and a standard deviation of 10% from the nominal model velocity in the alluvium basin layers. They also have a horizontal correlation distance of 1000 m, a vertical correlation distance of 250 m, and a standard deviation of 6% in the underlying and consolidated sedimentary layers, up to a depth of 4 km. Comparisons between observed and simulated wavefields were used to assess the proposed small-scale heterogeneity enhancements to the Yucca Flat basin model. We found that adding a depth-resolved stochastic variability to the geology-based velocity model improves the overall performance of ground-motion simulations of an SPE-5 explosion in the modeled frequency range up to 10 Hz. The results may be applicable to other similar basins.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimal design of microseismic monitoring network: Synthetic study for the Kimberlina CO2 storage demonstration site

Microseismic monitoring can play a crucial role to ensure safe long-term geological carbon storage. For reliable long-term monitoring for CO2-injection-induced microseismic events, a surface seismic array is desirable in addition to borehole geophone sensors. Optimal design of surface seismic network is of great interest to achieve cost-effective monitoring. We develop a methodology to determine the optimal number of surface seismic stations with a geometrically satisfactory distribution for given monitoring regions. We design an optimal microseismic monitoring network based on widely-accepted guiding principles, and the relationship between the location accuracy of microseismic events and the total number of seismic stations. We determine the optimal number of seismic stations based on the trade-off curve of the event location accuracy vs. the total number of seismic stations. We apply our optimal design method to the Kimberlina carbon storage site in California. We use a synthetic Kimberlina model to show that approximately 20 surface seismic stations with a geometrically satisfactory distribution are preferred for the best trade-off between the cost and the event location accuracy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗