Results for “scenario decomposition” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2024

Results of Speciation Determination Measurements of Insulating Sulfur Hexafluoride Gas

Under the direction of the NNSA NA-231 Mo-99 Program, SRNL has provided technical assistance to U.S. companies under cooperative agreements. One such area of technical assistance has been for the recommendation for contamination management methods in the eventuality that tritium contaminates the insulating gas of a high-voltage ion source used in the accelerator-based process developed by SHINE Medical Technologies to produce Mo-99. The SHINE accelerator process uses tritium as the target of a deuterium ion beam, where the ion beam is produced within a high-voltage ion source insulated with sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), and is separated from the tritium target by an extensive pump train. Normal operating conditions preclude the conditions necessary for contamination of the insulating gas, however certain atypical conditions could result in a tritium contamination event. Accelerator based processes for medical isotope production represent an anomalous tritium contamination challenge due to the presence of SF 6 . SF 6 decomposes through normal use as an insulator gas, and the exact speciation of the decomposition byproducts depends on a variety of factors. This creates a scenario where the anticipation of species present in the insulating gas mixture is difficult. In turn, the fate of tritium within such a chemical system is unclear. This document discusses the results of measurements made in-situ of the SF 6 insulating gas in use within a SHINE Medical Technology’s high-voltage ion source. This was done in an effort to determine the chemical speciation of the gas, allowing for the recommendation of management strategies in the event that tritium contaminates the insulating gas. The results of the measurements reported in this work suggest that tritium contamination in the insulating gas may result in two chemical forms of tritium in the system, tritiated water and molecular tritium. These two forms of tritium would be captured by two methods. Tritiated water may be captured and removed from the SF 6 by an adsorbent canister already present within the pressure vessel that houses the insulating gas while in use. It may also be separated from the SF 6 during routine purification of the SF 6 , which is performed by SHINE personnel routinely. The purification cart will perform all non-embedded systems cleanup necessary to remediate tritiated species in the system. The purification cart passes the insulating gas through several filters, followed by the liquefication of the SF 6 . The filters will separate tritiated water from the SF 6 at this stage. It is expected that molecular tritium will accumulate in the gas-phase during the liquification step, which is separated and stored. Tritium may be recovered from this mixture through more conventional hydrogen purification methods such as a palladium diffuser.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Validated Task Analysis of the Single Pilot Operations Concept

The current day flight deck operational environment consists of a two-person Captain/First Officer crew. A concept of operations (ConOps) to reduce the commercial cockpit to a single pilot from the current two pilot crew is termed Single Pilot Operations (SPO). This concept has been under study by researchers in the Flight Deck Display Research Laboratory (FDDRL) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Ames (Johnson, Comerford, Lachter, Battiste, Feary, and Mogford, 2012) and researchers from Langley Research Centers (Schutte et al., 2007). Transitioning from a two pilot crew to a single pilot crew will undoubtedly require changes in operational procedures, crew coordination, use of automation, and in how the roles and responsibilities of the flight deck and ATC are conceptualized in order to maintain the high levels of safety expected of the US National Airspace System. These modifications will affect the roles and the subsequent tasks that are required of the various operators in the NextGen environment. The current report outlines the process taken to identify and document the tasks required by the crew according to a number of operational scenarios studied by the FDDRL between the years 2012-2014. A baseline task decomposition has been refined to represent the tasks consistent with a new set of entities, tasks, roles, and responsibilities being explored by the FDDRL as the move is made towards SPO. Information from Subject Matter Expert interviews, participation in FDDRL experimental design meetings, and study observation was used to populate and refine task sets that were developed as part of the SPO task analyses. The task analysis is based upon the proposed ConOps for the third FDDRL SPO study. This experiment possessed nine different entities operating in six scenarios using a variety of SPO-related automation and procedural activities required to guide safe and efficient aircraft operations. The task analysis presents the roles and responsibilities in a manner that can facilitate testing future scenarios. Measures of task count and workload were defined and analyzed to assess the impact of transitioning to a SPO environment.

task analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

power load profile↗

NASA NTRS2010

Adapting ASPEN for Orbital Express

By studying the Orbital Express mission, modeling the spacecraft and scenarios, and testing the system, a technique has been developed that uses recursive decomposition to represent procedural actions declaratively, schema-level uncertainty reasoning to make uncertainty reasoning tractable, and lightweight, natural language processing to automatically parse procedures to produce declarative models. Schema-level uncertainty reasoning has, at its core, the basic assumption that certain variables are uncertain, but not independent. Once any are known, then the others become known. This is important where a variable is uncertain for an action and many actions of the same type exist in the plan. For example, if the number of retries to purge pump lines was unknown (but bounded), and each attempt required a sub-plan, then, once the correct number of attempts required for a purge was known, it would likely be the same for all subsequent purges. This greatly reduces the space of plans that needs to be searched to ensure that all executions are feasible. To accommodate changing scenario procedures, each is ingested into a tabular format in temporal order, and a simple natural-language parser is used to read each step and to derive the impact of that step on memory, power, and communications. Then an ASPEN (Activity Scheduling and Planning Environment) model is produced based on this analysis. The model is tested and further changed by hand, if necessary, to reflect the actual procedure. This results in a great savings of time used for modeling procedures. Many processes that need to be modeled in ASPEN (a declarative system) are, in fact, procedural. ASPEN includes the ability to model activities in a hierarchical fashion, but this representation breaks down if there is a practically unbounded number of sub-activities and decomposition topologies. However, if recursive decomposition is allowed, HTN-like encodings are enabled to represent most procedural phenomena. For example, if a switch requires a variable (but known at the time of the attempt) number of attempts to switch on, one can recurse on the number of remaining switch attempts and decompose into either the same switching activity with one less required attempt, or not decompose at all (or decompose into a dummy task), resulting in the end of the decomposition. In fact, any bounded procedural behavior can be modeled using recursive decompositions assuming that the variables impinging the disjunctive decomposition decision are computable at the time that the decision is made. This enables one to represent tasks that are controlled outside of the scheduler, but that the scheduler must accommodate, without requiring one to give a declarative model of the procedural behavior.

Chouinard, Caroline↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2025

CAMEO: A Co-design Architecture for Multi-objective Energy System Optimization (Project Report)

CAMEO (Codesign Architecture for Multi-objective Energy System Optimization) is a modular workflow management framework that abstracts co-design problems as Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG). The framework employs JSON-based workflow specifications that enable systematic decomposition of complex optimization problems into reusable, interchangeable components including data loaders, scenario generators, optimization solvers, and result summarizers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2009

New insights into the origin of magnetite crystals in ALH84001 carbonate disks

Martian meteorite ALH84001 preserves evidence of interaction with aqueous fluids while on Mars in the form of microscopic carbonate disks which are believed to have precipitated approximately 3.9 Ga ago at beginning of the Noachian epoch. Intimately associated within and throughout these carbonate disks are nanocrystal magnetites (Fe3O4) with unusual chemical and physical properties, whose origins have become the source of considerable debate. One group of hypotheses argues that these Fe3O4 are the product of partial thermal decomposition of the host carbonate. Alternatively, the origins of Fe3O4 and carbonate may be unrelated; that is, from the perspective of the carbonate the magnetite is allochthonous. We have sought to resolve between these hypotheses through the detailed characterized of the compositional and structural relationships of the carbonate disks and associated magnetites with the orthopyroxene matrix in which they are embedded. We focus this discussion on the composition of ALH84001 magnetites and then compare these observations with those from experimental thermal decomposition studies of sideritic carbonates under a range of plausible geological heating scenarios.

Thomas-Keprta, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Origin of Magnetite Crystals in Martian Meteorite ALH84001 Carbonate Disks

Martian meteorite ALH84001 preserves evidence of interaction with aqueous fluids while on Mars in the form of microscopic carbonate disks which are believed to have precipitated approx.3.9 Ga ago at beginning of the Noachian epoch. Intimately associated within and throughout these carbonate disks are nanocrystal magnetites (Fe3O4) with unusual chemical and physical properties, whose origins have become the source of considerable debate. One group of hypotheses argues that these Fe3O4 are the product of partial thermal decomposition of the host carbonate. Alternatively, the origins of Fe3O4 and carbonate may be unrelated; that is, from the perspective of the carbonate the magnetite is allochthonous. We have sought to resolve between these hypotheses through the detailed characterized of the compositional and structural relationships of the carbonate disks and associated magnetites with the orthopyroxene matrix in which they are embedded [1]. We focus this discussion on the composition of ALH84001 magnetites and then compare these observations with those from our thermal decomposition studies of sideritic carbonates under a range of plausible geological heating scenarios.

Thomas-Keprta, K.L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-based bias-corrected future projections of ozone concentrations from a chemistry-climate model

Reliable projection of future near-surface ozone is crucial for air quality management and health risk assessment. However, potential biases in spatial distribution, magnitude and trends in ozone concentrations simulated by global chemistry-climate models limit their applicability in regional-scale evaluations. In this study, LightGBM, a machine learning (ML) algorithm is applied to correct biases in CESM2-simulated ozone concentrations over China, the United States and Europe and calibrate future ozone projections under two diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The ML-based correction significantly improves the spatial distribution and reduces the model bias by 40%–60%. It also reverses the potentially incorrect trend of ozone change under SSP1-2.6 in eastern China. When applying ML-based bias correction to CESM2 future projections, warm season mean ozone concentrations decrease across China, the United States, and Europe by –13.5, –17.9, and –13.7 µg/m³, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 in SSP1-2.6, while they increase by 9.4, 2.0, and 5.2 µg/m³ in SSP5-8.5. Decomposition analysis show that changes in anthropogenic emissions dominate future ozone changes in both scenarios, while strong climate penalty from ozone changes occurs in polluted eastern China and climate benefit is found in western China, the United States and Europe under SSP5-8.5. These findings demonstrate the value of combining ML with chemistry-climate models to produce more accurate air quality projections, thereby informing more effective and region-specific environmental protection strategies.

Chemistry Model↗

NASA NTRS2021

System Validation on the Europa Clipper mission in Early Implementation Phase

NASA’s next flag-ship mission - Europa Clipper, will embark on a journey to Jupiter’s icy moon Europa in 2024 to assess its environment and habitability with a highly capable spacecraft. Post Jupiter-Orbit-Insertion, the spacecraft will be commanded to perform intricate, yet meticulously planned Europa flybys to perform science investigations using a suite of instruments, while withstanding Jupiter’s harsh radiation environment. The success of this mission is dependent on a well-coordinated project and its elements such as the flight hardware and software, the ground support and mission operations teams, procedures and other cross-cutting elements. The Europa Clipper project needs to ensure that these elements are realized at a reasonable confidence level prior to launch and other mission critical events. System Validation test and analysis activities exercise and confirm the integrity of the system of all project elements in the expected flight environment with reasonable stressing conditions. These activities go beyond system design requirements verification and are driven by validation objectives that describe the end-to-end functional and operational capabilities required during nominal and off-nominal flight-like scenarios and critical events. The challenges associated with validating that the Europa Clipper project as a whole can function and perform correctly to meet the intended mission objectives with the as-delivered capabilities of all of its elements are daunting. This paper discusses the systematic methodology established in the early implementation phase of the Europa Clipper project for developing System Validation activities and their validation objectives, and addressing any validation-related challenges on the project. Approaches include decomposition of mission objectives using activity timelines in the Mission Design plan for developing nominal scenarios, use of fault trees for exploring off-nominal cases and system boundaries, and use of Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tools for planning and prioritizing these activities.

Wang, Xu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Zero-Truncated Poisson Tensor Decomposition for Sparse Count Data

We propose a novel statistical inference paradigm for zero-inflated multiway count data that dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts. Our approach ignores all zero entries and applies zero-truncated Poisson regression on the positive counts. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $\textit{N}$-way rank-R parametric tensor 𝓜 ϵ (0, ∞) $I$Χ∙∙∙Χ$I$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated from approximately $IR^2 \text{log}^2_2(I)$ non-zero counts for a nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Several numerical experiments are presented demonstrating that our zero-truncated paradigm is comparable to the ideal scenario where the locations of false zero counts are known $\textit{a priori}$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Maximum Likelihood Spectrum Decomposition for Isotope Identification and Quantification

A spectral decomposition method has been implemented to identify and quantify isotopic source terms in high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy in static geometry and shielding scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations were used to build the response matrix of a shielded high-purity germanium detector monitoring an effluent stream with a Marinelli configuration. The decomposition technique was applied to a series of calibration spectra taken with the detector using a multi-nuclide standard. These results are compared with decay-corrected values from the calibration certificate. For most nuclei in the standard ( 241 Am, 109 Cd, 137 Cs, and 60 Co), the deviations from the certificate values were generally no more than 6% with a few outliers as high as 10%. Furthermore, for 57 Co, the radionuclide with the lowest activity, the deviations from the standard reached as high as 25%, driven by the meager statistics in the calibration spectra. In addition, a complete treatment of error propagation for the technique is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Validated Set of MIDAS V5 Task Network Model Scenarios to Evaluate Nextgen Closely Spaced Parallel Operations Concepts

The Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) scenario is a complex, human performance model scenario that tested alternate operator roles and responsibilities to a series of off-nominal operations on approach and landing (see Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013). The model links together the procedures, equipment, crewstation, and external environment to produce predictions of operator performance in response to Next Generation system designs, like those expected in the National Airspaces NextGen concepts. The task analysis that is contained in the present report comes from the task analysis window in the MIDAS software. These tasks link definitions and states for equipment components, environmental features as well as operational contexts. The current task analysis culminated in 3300 tasks that included over 1000 Subject Matter Expert (SME)-vetted, re-usable procedural sets for three critical phases of flight; the Descent, Approach, and Land procedural sets (see Gore et al., 2011 for a description of the development of the tasks included in the model; Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the model, and its results; Hooey, Gore, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the guidelines that were generated from the models results; Gore, Hooey, Foyle, 2012 for a description of the models implementation and its settings). The rollout, after landing checks, taxi to gate and arrive at gate illustrated in Figure 1 were not used in the approach and divert scenarios exercised. The other networks in Figure 1 set up appropriate context settings for the flight deck.The current report presents the models task decomposition from the tophighest level and decomposes it to finer-grained levels. The first task that is completed by the model is to set all of the initial settings for the scenario runs included in the model (network 75 in Figure 1). This initialization process also resets the CAD graphic files contained with MIDAS, as well as the embedded operator models that comprise MIDAS. Following the initial settings, the model progresses to begin the first tasks required of the two flight deck operators, the Captain (CA) and the First Officer (FO). The task sets will initialize operator specific settings prior to loading all of the alerts, probes, and other events that occur in the scenario. As a note, the CA and FO were terms used in developing this model but the CA can also be thought of as the Pilot Flying (PF), while the FO can be considered the Pilot-Not-Flying (PNF)or Pilot Monitoring (PM). As such, the document refers to the operators as PFCA and PNFFO respectively.

task network model↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT: PATH TO FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS

Long-duration, deep-space exploration missions present significant challenges to crew health and performance. These challenges include the individual and combined effects of microgravity, radiation exposure, isolation, limited resources (mass, volume, power, data and crew time), limited options for evacuation and those associated with delayed or constrained communications, all of which demand greater crew autonomy. Specifically, as the communication delays intensify the further we explore space, the unqualified need for Earth-independent medical operations focused on autonomous diagnosis, treatment and prevention will be key to mission continuation and success. To augment the requisite knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis, a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a probable solution that would facilitate, guide and inform Earth-independent medical operations, while assisting crewmembers through various clinical presentations. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. ExMC is actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology continues to advance this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project is to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/databases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that incorporate work from collaborators yet maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the CDS project identified requirements through two primary mechanisms: (i) the development of software implementation prototypes and (ii) the application of systems engineering processes. The CDS project developed and tested a series of increasingly complex system prototypes that were based on use cases derived from the CDSS concept of operations (ConOps). These software implementations yielded insights on CDSS functionality as well as lessons learned that provided the initial requirements for CDSS capability. By applying a systems engineering (SE) approach, medical scenarios provided in the ConOps and the use cases for software implementation underwent functional decomposition to identify CDSS functionality. Also, systems-based modeling language (SysML) tools such as activity diagrams were developed from the same ConOps and use cases to identify CDSS functionality. The lessons learned from software implementation defined both specific requirements and broad areas of requirements. Within these defined broad requirement areas, further analysis of the SE products identified specific capability that resulted in the final functional requirements. In summary, the software prototypes, functional decomposition of the ConOps and use cases, and SysML diagrams provided the basis for the CDSS requirements developed in FY21. In the upcoming year, these requirements will be refined for their final ExMC baseline review in latter FY22.

clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support: Path to Functional Requirements

Long-duration, deep-space exploration missions present significant challenges to crew health and performance. These challenges include the individual and combined effects of microgravity, radiation exposure, isolation, limited resources (mass, volume, power, data and crew time), limited options for evacuation and those associated with delayed or constrained communications, all of which demand greater crew autonomy. Specifically, as the communication delays intensify the further we explore space, the unqualified need for Earth-independent medical operations focused on autonomous diagnosis, treatment and prevention will be key to mission continuation and success. To augment the requisite knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis, a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a probable solution that would facilitate, guide and inform Earth-independent medical operations, while assisting crewmembers through various clinical presentations. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. ExMC is actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology continues to advance this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project is to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/databases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that incorporate work from collaborators yet maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the CDS project identified requirements through two primary mechanisms: (i) the development of software implementation prototypes and (ii) the application of systems engineering processes. The CDS project developed and tested a series of increasingly complex system prototypes that were based on use cases derived from the CDSS concept of operations (ConOps). These software implementations yielded insights on CDSS functionality as well as lessons learned that provided the initial requirements for CDSS capability. By applying a systems engineering (SE) approach, medical scenarios provided in the ConOps and the use cases for software implementation underwent functional decomposition to identify CDSS functionality. Also, systems-based modeling language (SysML) tools such as activity diagrams were developed from the same ConOps and use cases to identify CDSS functionality. The lessons learned from software implementation defined both specific requirements and broad areas of requirements. Within these defined broad requirement areas, further analysis of the SE products identified specific capability that resulted in the final functional requirements. In summary, the software prototypes, functional decomposition of the ConOps and use cases, and SysML diagrams provided the basis for the CDSS requirements developed in FY21. In the upcoming year, these requirements will be refined for their final ExMC baseline review in latter FY22.

Clinical decision support↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wildfire exacerbates high-latitude soil carbon losses from climate warming

Abstract Arctic and boreal permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition has been slower than carbon inputs from plant growth since the last glaciation. Anthropogenic climate warming has threatened this historical trend by accelerating SOC decomposition and altering wildfire regimes. We accurately modeled observed plant biomass and carbon emissions from wildfires in Alaskan ecosystems under current climate conditions. In projections to 2300 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, we found that warming and increased atmospheric CO 2 will result in plant biomass gains and higher litterfall. However, increased carbon losses from (a) wildfire combustion and (b) rapid SOC decomposition driven by increased deciduous litter production, root exudation, and active layer depth will lead to about 4.4 PgC of soil carbon losses from Alaska by 2300 and most (88%) of these loses will be from the top 1 m of soil. These SOC losses offset plant carbon gains, causing the ecosystem to transition to a net carbon source after 2200. Simulations excluding wildfire increases yielded about a factor of four lower SOC losses by 2300. Our results show that projected wildfire and its direct and indirect effects on plant and soil carbon may accelerate high-latitude soil carbon losses, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Cluster Computation of Flight Reynolds Number Flows

The performance of a workstation cluster used for the solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations is compared with a conventional vector supercomputer architecture. The application simulation of the steady flowfield about a transonic transport was computed using an implicit diagonal scheme in an overset mesh framework. Static load balancing was used, while coarse grain decomposition was achieved by solution of a grid zone per processor. Price/performance ratios are estimated for several scenarios in which such clusters may be utilized.

Atwood, Christopher A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf

Abstract. Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗