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A Statistical Sampling Method for Uncertainty Analysis with SCALE and XSUSA
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The SAGA Survey. II. Building a Statistical Sample of Satellite Systems around Milky Way–like Galaxies
In this work, we present the Stage II results from the ongoing Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) Survey. Upon completion, the SAGA Survey will spectroscopically identify satellite galaxies brighter than M r,o = -12.3 around 100 Milky Way (MW) analogs at z ~ 0.01. In Stage II, we have more than quadrupled the sample size of Stage I, delivering results from 127 satellites around 36 MW analogs with an improved target selection strategy and deep photometric imaging catalogs from the Dark Energy Survey and the Legacy Surveys. We have obtained 25,372 galaxy redshifts, peaking around z = 0.2. These data significantly increase spectroscopic coverage for very low redshift objects in 17 < r o < 20.75 around SAGA hosts, creating a unique data set that places the Local Group in a wider context. The number of confirmed satellites per system ranges from zero to nine and correlates with host galaxy and brightest satellite luminosities. We find that the number and luminosities of MW satellites are consistent with being drawn from the same underlying distribution as SAGA systems. The majority of confirmed SAGA satellites are star-forming, and the quenched fraction increases as satellite stellar mass and projected radius from the host galaxy decrease. Overall, the satellite quenched fraction among SAGA systems is lower than that in the Local Group. We compare the luminosity functions and radial distributions of SAGA satellites with theoretical predictions based on cold dark matter simulations and an empirical galaxy–halo connection model and find that the results are broadly in agreement.
Rhapsody: II. Subhalo Properties and the Impact of Tidal Stripping from a Statistical Sample of Cluster-Size Halos
Abstract Not Provided
Rhapsody: I. Structural Properties and Formation History from a Statistical Sample of Re-simulated Cluster-size Halos
Abstract Not Provided
Statistical Sampling Considerations in Multifamily Housing
In the past 30 years, some governmental agencies and private-sector owners of multifamily housing properties have limited radon screening to partial screening (e.g., the testing of a subset of the multifamily housing dwelling units). While sampling methods have differed, most have required that if any one unit was found to be “positive,” or have radon levels ≥4 pCi/L, all remaining untested housing units would be tested (e.g. trip-wire approach).
Sample sizes for approximate independence of largest and smallest order statistics
Sample sizes for approximate independence of largest and smallest order statistics
Correlating Sampling and Intensity Statistics in Nanoparticle Diffraction Experiments
In this article, [Öztürk, Yan, Hill & Noyan (2014). J. Appl. Cryst. 47, 1016-1025] it was shown that the sampling statistics of diffracting particle populations within a polycrystalline ensemble depended on the size of the constituent crystallites: broad X-ray peak breadths enabled some nano-sized particles to contribute more than one diffraction spot to Debye-Scherrer rings. Here it is shown that the equations proposed by Alexander, Klug & Kummer [J. Appl. Phys. (1948), 19, 742-753] (AKK) to link diffracting particle and diffracted intensity statistics are not applicable if the constituent crystallites of the powder are below 10 nm. In this size range, (i) the one-to-one correspondence between diffracting particles and Laue spots assumed in the AKK analysis is not satisfied, and (ii) the crystallographic correlation between Laue spots originating from the same grain invalidates the assumption that all diffracting plane normals are randomly oriented and uncorrelated. Such correlation produces unexpected results in the selection of diffracting grains. Three or more Laue spots from a given grain for a particular reflection can only be observed at certain wavelengths. In addition, correcting the diffracted intensity values by the traditional Lorentz term, 1/cos [theta], to compensate for the variation of particles sampled within a reflection band does not maintain fidelity to the number of poles contributing to the diffracted signal. A new term, cos [theta]B/cos [theta], corrects this problem.
Statistical distribution sampling
Determining the distribution of statistics by sampling was investigated. Characteristic functions, the quadratic regression problem, and the differential equations for the characteristic functions are analyzed.
(U) A Tool to Set Up an MCNP6 Input to Use Correlated Sampling with Batch Statistics
Correlated sampling using batch statistics with MCNP6’s tally fluctuation charts (TFCs) is a powerful means of reducing the statistical uncertainties of various combinations of tallies. Because MCNP6 prints a maximum of 20 entries in the TFCs, at least five inputs must be run to obtain the recommended number of at least 100 batches. A new software tool, MAKE_COSUBS, reads an MCNP6 input file and sets up a sequence of input files to be run. The user runs MAKE_COSUBS for the unperturbed and all perturbed MCNP6 inputs, runs MCNP6 for the inputs, and finally analyzes the outputs using COSUBS.
False-Negative Rate and Recovery Efficiency Performance of a Validated Sponge Wipe Sampling Method
Recovery of spores from environmental surfaces varies due to sampling and analysis methods, spore size and characteristics, surface materials, and environmental conditions. Tests were performed to evaluate a new, validated sponge wipe method using Bacillus atrophaeus spores. Testing evaluated the effects of spore concentration and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false-negative rate (FNR), limit of detection (LOD), and their uncertainties. Ceramic tile and stainless steel had the highest mean RE values (48.9 and 48.1%, respectively). Faux leather, vinyl tile, and painted wood had mean RE values of 30.3, 25.6, and 25.5, respectively, while plastic had the lowest mean RE (9.8%). Results show roughly linear dependences of RE and FNR on surface roughness, with smoother surfaces resulting in higher mean REs and lower FNRs. REs were not influenced by the low spore concentrations tested (3.10x10^-3 to 1.86 CFU/cm^2). Stainless steel had the lowest mean FNR (0.123), and plastic had the highest mean FNR (0.479). The LOD90 (>1 CFU detected 90% of the time) varied with surface material, from 0.015 CFU/cm^2 on stainless steel up to 0.039 on plastic. It may be possible to improve sampling results by considering surface roughness in selecting sampling locations and interpreting spore recovery data. Further, FNR values (calculated as a function of concentration and surface material) can be used presampling to calculate the numbers of samples for statistical sampling plans with desired performance and postsampling to calculate the confidence in characterization and clearance decisions.
Spectral variability of a sample of extreme variability quasars and implications for the MgII broad-line region
We present new Gemini/GMOS optical spectroscopy of 16 extreme variability quasars (EVQs) that dimmed bymore than 1.5mag in the g band between the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey epochs (separated by a few years in the quasar rest frame). These EVQs are selected from quasars in the SDSS Stripe 82 region, covering a redshift range of 0.5 < z < 2.1. Nearly half of these EVQs brightened significantly (by more than 0.5 mag in the g band) in a few years after reaching their previous faintest state, and some EVQs showed rapid (non-blazar) variations of greater than 1-2 mag on time-scales of only months. To increase sample statistics, we use a supplemental sample of 33 EVQs with multi-epoch spectra from SDSS that cover the broad Mg II lambda 2798 line. Leveraging on the large dynamic range in continuum variability between the multi-epoch spectra, we explore the associated variations in the broad MgII line, whose variability properties have not been well studied before. The broad MgII flux varies in the same direction as the continuum flux, albeit with a smaller amplitude, which indicates at least some portion of Mg II is reverberating to continuum changes. However, the full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of Mg II does not vary accordingly as continuum changes for most objects in the sample, in contrast to the case of the broad Balmer lines. Using the width of broad MgII to estimate the black hole mass with single epoch spectra therefore introduces a luminosity-dependent bias.
DESI Massive Poststarburst Galaxies at z ~ 1.2 Have Compact Structures and Dense Cores
Poststarburst galaxies (PSBs) are young quiescent galaxies that have recently experienced a rapid decrease in star formation, allowing us to probe the fast-quenching period of galaxy evolution. In this work, we obtained Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/WFC3 F110W imaging to measure the sizes of 171 massive (log(M $\ast$ /M ⊙ ) ~ 11) spectroscopically identified PSBs at 1 < z 1.3 selected from the DESI Survey Validation luminous red galaxy sample. This statistical sample constitutes an order of magnitude increase from the ~20 PSBs with space-based imaging and deep spectroscopy. We perform structural fitting of the target galaxies with pysersic and compare them to quiescent and star-forming galaxies in the 3D-HST survey. We find that these PSBs are more compact than the general population of quiescent galaxies, lying systematically ~0.1 dex below the established size–mass relation. However, their central surface mass densities are similar to those of their quiescent counterparts (log(Σ 1kpc /(M ⊙ kpc -2 ))~10.1). These findings are easily reconciled by later ex situ growth via minor mergers or a slight progenitor bias. These PSBs are round in projection (b/a median ~ 0.8), suggesting that they are primarily spheroids, not disks, in 3D. We find no correlation between the time since quenching and light-weighted PSB sizes or central densities. This disfavors apparent structural growth due to the fading of centralized starbursts in this galaxy population. Instead, we posit that the fast quenching of massive galaxies at this epoch occurs preferentially in galaxies with preexisting compact structures.
The Medium Sensitivity Survey and the X-ray selected quasar sample
Statistical investigations of X-ray-emitting quasars are reviewed, focusing on the possible incompleteness of the Einstein IPC Medium Sensitivity Survey (MSS) (Maccacaro et al., 1982; Stocke et al., 1983; Gioia et al., 1984). The criteria used in constructing the MSS and calculating the source parameters are discussed, and the corrections determined for each line of sight by Maccacaro and Gioia (1986) on the basis of the H I measurements of Stark et al. (1986) are shown to have no effect on the completeness of the MSS extragalactic sample as a whole and of the quasar sample in particular. Other possible reasons for inconsistencies between the MSS sample and optically selected quasar samples are considered; ongoing efforts to expand the MSS sample are described; and some preliminary results are presented in graphs.
THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY QUASAR LENS SEARCH. V. FINAL CATALOG FROM THE SEVENTH DATA RELEASE
We present the final statistical sample of lensed quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Quasar Lens Search (SQLS). The well-defined statistical lens sample consists of 26 lensed quasars brighter than i = 19.1 and in the redshift range of 0.6 < z < 2.2 selected from 50,826 spectroscopically confirmed quasars in the SDSS Data Release 7 (DR7), where we restrict the image separation range to 1'' < {theta} < 20'' and the i-band magnitude differences in two images to be smaller than 1.25 mag. The SDSS DR7 quasar catalog also contains 36 additional lenses identified with various techniques. In addition to these lensed quasars, we have identified 81 pairs of quasars from follow-up spectroscopy, 26 of which are physically associated binary quasars. The statistical lens sample covers a wide range of image separations, redshifts, and magnitudes, and therefore is suitable for systematic studies of cosmological parameters and surveys of the structure and evolution of galaxies and quasars.
Entropy-based closure for probabilistic learning on manifolds
In a recent paper, the authors proposed a general methodology for probabilistic learning on manifolds. The method was used to generate numerical samples that are statistically consistent with an existing dataset construed as a realization from a non-Gaussian random vector. The manifold structure is learned using diffusion manifolds and the statistical sample generation is accomplished using a projected Itˆo stochastic differential equation. This probabilistic learning approach has been extended to polynomial chaos representation of databases on manifolds and to probabilistic nonconvex constrained optimization with a fixed budget of function evaluations. The methodology introduces an isotropic-diffusion kernel with hyperparameter ". Currently, " is more or less arbitrarily chosen. In this paper, we propose a selection criterion for identifying an optimal value of ", based on a maximum entropy argument. The result is a comprehensive, closed, probabilistic model for characterizing data sets with hidden constraints. This entropy argument ensures that out of all possible models, this is the one that is the most uncertain beyond any specified constraints, which is selected. Applications are presented for several databases.
A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping
Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties.
In-service Inspection of Radioactive Waste Tanks at the Savannah River Site – 15410
Liquid radioactive wastes from the Savannah River Site (SRS) separation process are stored in large underground carbon steel tanks. The high level wastes are processed in several of the tanks and then transferred by piping to other site facilities for further processing before they are stabilized in a vitrified or grout waste form. Based on waste removal and processing schedules, many of the tanks will be required to be in service for times exceeding the initial intended life. Until the waste is removed from storage, transferred, and processed, the materials and structures of the tanks must maintain a confinement function by providing a barrier to the environment and by maintaining acceptable structural stability during design basis events, which include loadings from both normal service and abnormal (e.g., earthquake) conditions. A structural integrity program is in place to maintain the structural and leak integrity functions of these waste tanks throughout their intended service life. In-service inspection (ISI) is an essential element of a comprehensive structural integrity program for the waste tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS). The ISI program was developed to determine the degree of degradation the waste tanks have experienced due to service conditions. As a result of the inspections, an assessment can be made of the effectiveness of corrosion controls for the waste chemistry, which precludes accelerated localized and general corrosion of the waste tanks. Ultrasonic inspections (UT) are performed to detect and quantify the degree of general wall thinning, pitting and cracking as a measure of tank degradation. The results from these inspections through 2013, for the 27 Type III/IIIA tanks, indicate no reportable in-service corrosion degradation in the primary tank (i.e., general, pitting, or cracking). The average wall thickness for all tanks remains above the manufactured nominal thickness minus 0.25 millimeter and the largest pit identified is approximately 1.70 millimeter deep (i.e., less than 10% through-wall). Improvements to the inspection program were recently instituted to provide additional confidence in the degradation rates. Thickness measurements from a single vertical strip along the accessible height of the primary tank have been used as a baseline to compare historical measurements. Changes in wall thickness and pit depths along this vertical strip are utilized to estimate the rate of corrosion degradation. An independent review of the ISI program methodology, results, and path forward was held in August 2009. The review recommended statistical sampling of the tanks to improve the confidence of the single strip inspection program. The statistical sampling plan required that SRS increase the amount of area scanned per tank. Therefore, in addition to the baseline vertical strip that is obtained for historical comparisons, four additional randomly selected vertical strips are inspected. To date, a total of 104 independent vertical strips along the height of the primary tank have been completed. A statistical analysis of the data indicates that at this coverage level there is a 99.5% confidence level that one of the worst 5% of all the vertical strips was inspected. That is, there is a relatively high likelihood that the SRS inspection program has covered one of the most corroded areas of any of the Type III/IIIA waste tanks. These data further support the conclusion that there are no significant indications of wall thinning or pitting. Random sampling will continue to increase the confidence that one of the worst 5% has been inspected. In order to obtain the additional vertical strips, and minimize budget and schedule impacts, data collection speed for the UT system was optimized. Prior to 2009, the system collected data at a rate of 32 square centimeters per minute. The scan rate was increased to 129 - 160 square centimeters per minute by increasing the scanner step and pixel sizes in the data acquisition set-up. Laboratory testing was utilized to optimize the scan index/pixel size such that the requirements for wall thinning and pit detection were still maintained. SRS continues to evaluate improvements to ultrasonic equipment.