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Fast increased fidelity samplers for approximate Bayesian Gaussian process regression
Gaussian processes (GPs) are common components in Bayesian non-parametric models having a rich methodological literature and strong theoretical grounding. The use of exact GPs in Bayesian models is limited to problems containing several thousand observations due to their prohibitive computational demands. We develop a posterior sampling algorithm using H-matrix approximations that scales at O(n log 2 n). We show that this approximation’s Kullback-Leibler divergence to the true posterior can be made arbitrarily small. Though multidimensional GPs could be used with our algorithm, d-dimensional surfaces are modeled as tensor products of univariate GPs to minimize the cost of matrix construction and maximize computational efficiency. We illustrate the performance of this fast increased fidelity approximate GP, FIFA-GP, using both simulated and non-synthetic data sets
A Hierarchical Gibbs Sampler for Spatially Varying Multi-Regularization Image Reconstructions
This is a presentation for SIAM's (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics) conference on computational science and engineering. This presentation describes research on novel techniques to deblur images under a Bayesian framework. The title of the conference is SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering (CSE21). This is a VIRTUAL conference; it was originally scheduled in Fort Worth, TX. The conference dates are March 1-5, 2021. The link to the conference's website is https://www.siam.org/conferences/cm/conference/cse21
High Volume Air Sampler (HVAS) Filter Media Folding and Vacuum Sealing Procedure
This procedure describes the method for folding of the HVAS filter media, vacuum chamber setup and operation for sealing in preparation for Gamma counting.
Building LDMS Samplers for Slingshot Switches
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Enabling depth resolved temporal resolved soil microbial sampling with novel vadose zone diffusion sampler
To address the difficulty in Earth system science in making time-course measurements of molecular signatures in soil biochemistry, we developed a soil stake system to sample and replace a defined soil analog medium, connected through hydraulic connectivity via perforated casings and modular inserts. We deployed these stakes to a site in Prosser, WA and measured microbial colonization of sterile sand-clay inserts enriched with N-acetyl-glucosamine at different depths over spring and summer. DNA and RNA analyses revealed distinct microbial recruitment and activity patterns. Inserts showed lower microbial diversity but higher abundance of Proteobacteriota and Bacteriota compared to native soils, alongside seasonal shifts in taxonomic and functional profiles. The soil stake system offers a novel approach for studying microbial dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.
Data Order Reduction for Performance Monitoring of Supercomputers via the Kokkos Tools Sampler Utility
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Salt Vessel-Sample Generator Interface
The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches for interfacing relevant unit operations with salt analysis to improve the timeliness and accuracy of sampling-based accountancy measurements. One technology under development is a vacuum sampler loop module. In this system, molten salt is drawn from a process vessel through a heated sampling line and into a charge vessel. Next, one or more samples are split from the volume in the charge vessel and the remaining salt is returned to the process. The vacuum sampler loop module is being developed to interface with other sample processing and analysis modules to enable rapid at-line sample characterization. The main purpose of the vacuum sampling loop module is to enable the collection of samples that are more representative of the bulk salt by replacing traditional point samplers (i.e., dip probes) with a sampling approach that captures a larger cross section of salt. Additionally, the vacuum sampling approach eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. Two methods of interfacing the vacuum sampling loop with a precision pneumatic sample generator were investigated in FY21. This report covers the testing of fluidic coupling between the two modules. Two iterations of the fluidically coupled modules were tested. The first iteration system coupled the two modules using a freeze valve to seal the vacuum sampler during filling and to control flow into the pneumatic sample generator. While this integrated system functioned as intended, some changes were implemented to make the system more robust and better suited to remote deployment. Specifically, the system was made to be more modular and active control of the vacuum filling operation was replaced with a passive control mechanism. For passive filling, the salt charge vessel was vented to a small gas tank that was at negative pressure, causing salt to be drawn into the vessel until the force of the fluid head was in equilibrium with the gas pressure. The passive control system performed well and will be used in future iterations. Another change in the second system was a newly configured pneumatic sample generator in which sample ejection occurred through a hole in the reservoir’s stainless-steel side wall instead of through a non-wetted sapphire orifice on the bottom. This alternate configuration may be better suited for near-process deployment because it enables on-line orifice maintenance and an orifice bypass drain back to the process. A third change in the second iteration system was the transition to a two-chamber charge vessel which split off a fraction of the sampled salt as a liquid aliquot. The goal was to create a buffer mechanism that would allow reproducible aliquoting of samples, independently of variability in the charge vessel fill height. While the two-chamber design was functional, the sample size reproducibility was below target values. To improve reproducibility and overcome many of the impediments to remote deployment of the vacuum sampling loop module, separate work was conducted to replace the two-chamber liquid aliquoting mechanism with aliquoting into single-use sample tubes. Solid salt transfer in the sample tubes will replace fluidic coupling for integrating the vacuum sampler with downstream modules. Because the proposed operations can all be executed with simple overhead actuation mechanisms or other existing hot-cell technology, there will be no need for large investments in novel hot cell sample handling technologies using this alternate approach. As such, near-term deployment of the vacuum sampling technology will be achievable. This new approach for automated coupling of sample tubes with down-stream modules is covered in a separate FY21 report, and a remotely operated version of the vacuum sampler loop module with the tube aliquoting feature is planned for FY22.
Updated Application of Frequency of Detection Methods for the INL Site Ambient Air Monitoring Network
This report presents a quantitative assessment of the current INL Site air monitoring network using frequency of detection (FD) methods. The first assessment of the INL network was performed in 2015 and made recommendations for improving the network. As a result of changes made in response to the recommendations and the addition of new source locations, the network was modified and reassessed in 2017. Since 2017, administration of the air sampling program has been consolidated under one contractor, which resulted in additional changes to the network (sampler numbers and locations) and changes in radionuclide detection levels. As a result of these changes and others, an updated assessment of the INL Site ambient air monitoring network was performed. The same two exposure scenarios used in previous assessments were used for this assessment: a resident scenario and a shepherd/rancher scenario. The resident was assumed to be continuously present at their residence/business/farm operation outside the INL Site boundary while the shepherd/rancher was assumed to be present 24-hours at the nearest INL grazing allotment boundary in each of the 22.5-degree sectors along the sector centerline from each source. Updates to both the resident and shepherd/rancher receptor locations were included. Other changes include updates to flow rates for stack sources, expansion of the list of important radionuclides based on the most recent National Emission Standards for Hazardous Pollutants (NESHAPs) analysis, and updated dose coefficients. The assessment was conducted to determine whether the current INL monitoring network is capable of detecting releases of important radionuclides from INL Site sources that have the potential to exceed a conservative dose threshold for the two exposure scenarios. The assessment revealed that for the resident scenario, the current network meets the desired performance objective (FD = 95%) for all radionuclides and sources except for Cl-36 from the TRA-770 stack (94.4%). For the shepherd/rancher scenario, the FD performance objective is met for all radionuclides and sources except tritium from MFC-774 and TAN 679 (91% for both). An investigation of reported emissions for the past three years revealed that Cl 36 is not emitted from TRA-770, and routine tritium emissions from MFC-774 and TAN-679 are very small and the sources are likely incapable of emitting enough tritium to cause a release that should be detectable by the monitoring network. This assessment is based on a conservative dose threshold. This coupled with fact that the FD for Cl 36 is only slightly less than the performance objective and Cl-36 is not emitted from TRA-770, modifying the network (i.e. adding another sampler, increasing sampler flow rate, moving samplers) to meet the 95% performance objective for this radionuclide/source/receptor scenario is not warranted. Similarly, because tritium emissions from MFC-774 and TAN-679 are very small and these two sources are likely incapable of causing a dose due to tritium release that should be detectable by the network, modifications to increase tritium detection for these sources is also unwarranted at this time. However, if it is required to meet the performance objective for tritium for all sources and receptor scenarios, additional analysis determined the FD could be raised from 91% to > 99% for both sources by adding two tritium samplers to the network.
Robust sampling for weak lensing and clustering analyses with the Dark Energy Survey
Recent cosmological analyses rely on the ability to accurately sample from high-dimensional posterior distributions. A variety of algorithms have been applied in the field, but justification of the particular sampler choice and settings is often lacking. Here, we investigate three such samplers to motivate and validate the algorithm and settings used for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) analyses of the first 3 yr (Y3) of data from combined measurements of weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We employ the full DES Year 1 likelihood alongside a much faster approximate likelihood, which enables us to assess the outcomes from each sampler choice and demonstrate the robustness of our full results. We find that the ellipsoidal nested sampling algorithm multinest reports inconsistent estimates of the Bayesian evidence and somewhat narrower parameter credible intervals than the sliced nested sampling implemented in polychord. We compare the findings from multinest and polychord with parameter inference from the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, finding good agreement. We determine that polychord provides a good balance of speed and robustness for posterior and evidence estimation, and recommend different settings for testing purposes and final chains for analyses with DES Y3 data. Our methodology can readily be reproduced to obtain suitable sampler settings for future surveys.
Salt Sampling FY21 Technical Report
The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches to enable high-precision in-process salt sample analysis to improve the timeliness of sampling-based accountancy measurements. Tools currently under development in support of this goal include (1) a modular vacuum sampler with an accompanying sample handling method for coupling vacuum sampling with high-precision at-line sample analysis, (2) a pneumatic sample generator that enables high-throughput sample analysis to improve the precision of existing analytical techniques, and (3) a windowless flow cell to enable on-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop. Compared to point sampling approaches (i.e., dip probes), vacuum sampling systems and on-line sampling loops facilitate access to a larger cross-section of a process fluid. This is known to improve the characterization of the process fluid by producing more representative samples and by enabling the analysis of a larger cross section of the fluid. A vacuum sampling approach for molten salts eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. In FY21, two methods for integrating a vacuum sampler with a pneumatic sample generator were tested. These included direct fluidic coupling and coupling using a solid salt transfer mechanism. Solid salt transfer was ultimately selected over fluidic coupling, primarily to enable the transport of samples over longer distances to support automated at-line integration with high-precision techniques (such as microcalorimetry) that cannot withstand the extreme conditions near an electrorefining process. To facilitate rapid solid salt coupling, new mechanisms were developed for rapidly charging and discharging salt sample tubes at the vacuum sampler and pneumatic sample generator, respectively. While the charging mechanism will be deployed in FY22, the tube transfer method and discharge mechanism were tested in FY21. These were deployed at one of Argonne’s engineering-scale electrorefiners to implement at-line high-throughput pneumatic micro-sample generation capabilities. The method was used to generate precise uranium- and lanthanide-bearing electrorefiner micro-samples with the specific dimensions requested by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use in testing their novel microcalorimeter x-ray techniques. The solid salt transfer mechanism proved not only to be an effective means of integrating the precision sample generator with vacuum sampling, but also improved the performance of the sampler generator. Because the modular sampling approach described here eliminates the need for new high-radiation sample handling capabilities, salt-wetted seals, salt-wetted moving parts, and heated transfer lines outside the electrorefiner, it will address most of the remaining technical challenges for the at-line deployment of high-precision analytical techniques. This will enable significant reductions in the time delay for sampling-based accountancy measurements by eliminating the need for manual off-line sample processing and analysis. On-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop would provide complementary information to at-line and in-situ techniques. In FY21, an open-aperture molten salt gravity flow cell with windowless optical access to flowing salt was successfully demonstrated. Future work should include the refinement and performance testing of the on-line and at-line sampling tools, integration of additional analysis techniques, stakeholder outreach and collaboration, evaluation of the integrated methods, and analyses to determine how the various tools might fit into an integrated safeguards monitoring system of unattended near real time monitoring tools.
Collection, release, and detection of analytes with polymer composite sampling materials
A unique fiber core sampler composition, related systems, and techniques for designing, making, and using the same are described. The sampler is used to interface with existing field instrumentation, such as Ion Mobility Spectrometer (IMS) equipment. Desired sampler characteristics include its: stiffness/flexibility; thermal mass and conductivity; specific heat; trace substance collection/release dependability, sensitivity and repeatability; thickness; reusability; durability; stability for thermal cleaning; and the like. In one form the sampler has a glass fiber core with a thickness less than 0.3 millimeter that is coated with a polymer including one or more of: polymeric organofluorine, polyimide, polyamide, PolyBenzlmidazole (PBI), PolyDiMethylSiloxane (PDMS), sulfonated tetrafluoroethylene (PFSA) and Poly(2,6-diphenyl-p-phenylene Oxide) (PPPO). Multiple polymer coatings with the same or different polymer types may be included, core/substrate surface functionalization utilized, and/or the core/substrate may be at partially filled with thermally conductive particles.
Sequential Kalman tuning of the t -preconditioned Crank-Nicolson algorithm: efficient, adaptive and gradient-free inference for Bayesian inverse problems
Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) has been proposed as an efficient method for the approximate solution of Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models. However, when applied to the Bayesian inverse problem EKI is only exact in the regime of Gaussian target measures and linear forward models. Here, in this work we propose embedding EKI and Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion, its normalizing flow (NF) preconditioned variant, within a Bayesian annealing scheme as part of an adaptive implementation of the t-preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (tpCN) sampler. The tpCN sampler differs from standard pCN in that its proposal is reversible with respect to the multivariate t-distribution. The more flexible tail behaviour allows for better adaptation to sampling from non-Gaussian targets. Within our Sequential Kalman Tuning (SKT) adaptation scheme, EKI is used to initialize and precondition the tpCN sampler for each annealed target. The subsequent tpCN iterations ensure particles are correctly distributed according to each annealed target, avoiding the accumulation of errors that would otherwise impact EKI. We demonstrate the performance of SKT for tpCN on three challenging numerical benchmarks, showing significant improvements in the rate of convergence compared to adaptation within standard SMC with importance weighted resampling at each temperature level, and compared to similar adaptive implementations of standard pCN. The SKT scheme applied to tpCN offers an efficient, practical solution for solving the Bayesian inverse problem when gradients of the forward model are not available. Code implementing the SKT schemes for tpCN is available at https://github.com/RichardGrumitt/KalmanMC.
High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization via Semi-Supervised Learning with Optimized Unlabeled Data Sampling
We introduce a novel semi-supervised learning approach, named Teacher-Student Bayesian Optimization (TSBO ), integrating the teacher-student paradigm into BO to minimize expensive labeled data queries for the first time. TSBO incorporates a teacher model, an unlabeled data sampler, and a student model. The student is trained on unlabeled data locations generated by the sampler, with pseudo labels predicted by the teacher. The interplay between these three components implements a unique selective regularization to the teacher in the form of student feedback. This scheme enables the teacher to predict high-quality pseudo labels, enhancing the generalization of the GP surrogate model in the search space. To fully exploit TSBO , we propose two optimized unlabeled data samplers to construct effective student feedback that well aligns with the objective of Bayesian optimization. Furthermore, we quantify and leverage the uncertainty of the teacher-student model for the provision of reliable feedback to the teacher in the presence of risky pseudo-label predictions. TSBO demonstrates significantly improved sample-efficiency in several global optimization tasks under tight labeled data budgets. The implementation is available at https://github.com/reminiscenty/TSBO-Official.
Molten Salt Sampling Techniques and Analytical Approaches
Recent global interest in pyroprocessing and molten salt reactors has brought salt sampling methods and techniques back to the forefront of nuclear safeguards concerns. Issues with uranium supplies have also encouraged various countries to pursue advanced nuclear fuel cycles. Tracking nuclear material in molten salt has proven to be a challenge and updating molten salt sampling will greatly help in this endeavor. Molten salt is problematic to sample due to salt stratification, lack of homogeneity, solids, and difficulty with hot cell adaptations. Various salt sampling techniques have been used since before the 1960s including surface, spoon/spatula, and bar solidification. Since then, new types of sampling techniques have been developed to improve sampling results. These include rod/dip, pipet, suction, filtered sampling along with devices such as the Valve Core Sampler and the Multi-Level Sampler. These different approaches are being analyzed and improved upon along with developing requirements for an improved salt sampling device. Work continues to develop salt samplers that are more robust, easier to segment, collect at a specific depth, can work with filters, and can collect fines. Sampling parameters are also being narrowed in terms of stirring, settling time, filtration, depth, etc. In the future, we hope to address deficiencies for process control and nuclear material accountancy control by determining the best way to collect samples that minimizes contaminants and is representative. A compilation of salt sampling approaches, analyses techniques, and an evaluation of findings will be presented.
MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities
The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.
Extension of SCALE/Sampler’s sensitivity analysis
Nuclear data are a major source of uncertainties in reactor physics calculations. The propagation of nuclear data uncertainties to important system responses is instrumental when determining appropriate safety margins in reactor safety analyses. It is also important to understand the major contributors to the observed uncertainties to make recommendations for further measurements and evaluations and aid in the understanding of the studied system. The SCALE code system allows for nuclear data uncertainty analysis based on the random sampling approach as implemented in SCALE’s Sampler sequence. Sampler was recently extended by a sensitivity analysis in terms of the calculation of two correlation-based sensitivity indices. This analysis allows for the identification of the top contributing nuclear reactions to any analyzed output uncertainty. This paper presents the sensitivity indices, along with their interpretation and limitations. It demonstrates the application in an eigenvalue and decay heat analysis for a boiling water reactor fuel assembly.