A New Rock Salt Constitutive Model with Back Stress and Drag Stress Hardening.
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The main goal of the research project was to identify the geophysical signatures of fracture growth in natural rocks by utilizing novel geophysical techniques. The research objectives were to (a) investigate the potential for geophysical methods to determine when cracks initiate, the types and locations of propagated cracks, and the coalescence of networks of cracks in natural rocks at multiple scales, (b) determine how damage at the microscale evolved into damage at the macroscale and then link the microscopic and macroscopic observations, (c) quantify crack coalescence in rocks under realistic stress conditions using coupled mechanical-geophysical-optical visualization, and (d) identify the precursors in geophysical signals to crack coalescence. The following research thrusts were explored to achieve the research objectives: (1) uniaxial compression testing of rock specimens with and without a set of pre‐existing flaws and (2) triaxial compression testing of natural rock specimens. These thrusts allowed for exploring fracturing in rocks under realistic in situ environments and at multiple scales. This project provided educational opportunities for nine graduate and undergraduate students and resulted in 27 peer-reviewed publications. This first research thrust focused on investigating the micromechanics of fractures in rocks through uniaxial compression testing combined with advanced geophysical and imaging techniques, specifically acoustic emission (AE) monitoring, ultrasonic imaging, and 2-dimensional Digital Image Correlation (2D-DIC). By examining damage processes under time-independent and time-dependent loading conditions, insights into damage localization, crack initiation, and fracturing mechanisms were gained. It was observed that the AE signals and the strain-based measurements directly reflect the state of damage in the rock specimen and could be used to identify the cracking levels, such as the crack initiation (CI) and crack damage (CD), and the mode of deformation. A novel calibration apparatus was developed to enhance the accuracy of AE sensors, allowing for the estimation of key parameters such as magnitude, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated seismic energy associated with the fractures. The findings highlighted significant variations in the temporal evolution of AE source parameters during the primary, secondary, and tertiary stages of creep, identifying tensile cracking as the primary deformation mode. The second research thrust focused on enhancing the understanding of fracturing processes in natural rocks through triaxial compression testing, real-time AE monitoring, and ultrasonic monitoring. We investigated the impact of various factors such as fracture propagation regimes, injection parameters, rock types, and pre-existing conditions on the hydraulic fracture (HF) behavior using scaled true-triaxially loaded specimens of Barre granite and Lyons sandstone. Custom sensor housing facilitated concurrent active and passive monitoring to analyze hydro-mechanical responses and microseismicity associated with different HF scenarios. A coupled investigation of passive microseismicity and active signal attributes permitted a detailed comprehension of the various HF processes (aseismic deformation, fracture initiation and propagation, fluid permeation, and leak-off) and their dependence on the specific rock type. The findings of this research demonstrated the effectiveness of AE monitoring techniques in providing valuable insights into the impact of various factors on the behavior and dynamics of HF processes. The advancements in monitoring techniques, offering a more thorough and precise approach, represent a significant step towards optimizing HF practices and ensuring sustainable resource extraction.
Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.
Microwave-assisted hydrogen generation from hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir rocks is strongly influenced by mineralogy, methane activation, carbonate reactions, and thermal runaway behavior. This study investigates a new approach in which carbonate phases are generated in-situ through the reaction of internally produced CO2 with Ca(OH)2 under microwave heating conditions. The objective is to evaluate how rock mineralogy, methane injection, and Ca(OH)2 addition influence hydrogen generation, carbon redistribution, and stage-dependent reaction pathways during microwave exposure. Microwave heating experiments were conducted using Permian Basin reservoir rocks under three experimental conditions: rock-only experiments under Ar atmosphere, CH4–Ar experiments without additive, and CH4–Ar experiments containing 5 wt% Ca(OH)2. Methane-assisted experiments were performed under continuous injection of 30 standard cubic centimeters per minute (sccm) CH4 and 30 sccm Ar. Based on thermal runaway behavior, each experiment was divided into three operational stages: Before Thermal Runaway (BR), After Thermal Runaway–Decrease in Microwave Power (ARD), and After Thermal Runaway– Increase in Microwave Power (ARI). Temperature and gas composition were continuously monitored throughout the experiments. The rock-only experiments demonstrated that hydrogen generation can occur intrinsically from hydrocarbon-bearing rocks under microwave heating, even without externally injected methane. However, hydrogen production did not correlate solely with kerogen content, indicating that mineralogy strongly influences hydrogen-generation pathways. Correlation analyses suggested that kerogen decomposition initially generated CH4, CO, and CO2, followed by secondary hydrocarbon reactions associated with H2 and C2 hydrocarbon formation. Methane-assisted experiments substantially increased hydrogen production; however, identical methane injection rates produced significantly different hydrogen yields among the rock samples, confirming that mineralogical composition controls methaneconversion behavior under microwave heating conditions. The addition of Ca(OH)2 significantly altered carbon evolution behavior in a stage-dependent manner. During the BR stage, Ca(OH)2 reduced gas-phase CO2 production, particularly in carbonate-rich rocks, indicating favorable conditions for in-situ carbonation and carbonate deposition prior to extensive thermal decomposition. The suppression of CO2 during BR became more pronounced with increasing carbonate content of the rock system. After thermal runaway, carbonate-containing systems exhibited enhanced hydrogen generation behavior, suggesting that carbonatederived mineral transformations and carbonate-mediated reactions contribute to high-temperature hydrogen-generation pathways. In carbonate-poor rocks, Ca(OH)2 addition enabled simultaneous URTeC 4493775 2 enhancement of hydrogen production and partial suppression of CO2 release during the post-runaway stages. Overall, the results demonstrate that microwave-assisted hydrogen generation is governed by dynamically evolving interactions among kerogen decomposition, methane activation, mineral transformations, carbonate formation/decomposition, and thermal runaway behavior. This work introduces in-situ carbonate engineering with Ca(OH)2 as a strategy for coupling hydrogen generation with partial insitu carbon management under microwave heating conditions.
Abstract Enhanced rock weathering (ERW), the application of crushed silicate rock to soil, can remove atmospheric carbon dioxide by converting it to (bi) carbonate ions or solid carbonate minerals. However, few studies have empirically evaluated ERW in field settings. A critical question remains as to whether additions of crushed rock might positively or negatively affect soil organic matter (SOM)—Earth’s largest terrestrial organic carbon (C) pool and a massive reservoir of organic nitrogen (N). Here, in three irrigated cropland field trials in California, USA, we investigated the effect of crushed meta-basalt rock additions on different pools of soil organic carbon and nitrogen (i.e., mineral-associated organic matter, MAOM, and particulate organic matter, POM), active microbial biomass, and microbial community composition. After 2 years of crushed rock additions, MAOM stocks were lower in the upper surface soil (0–10 cm) of plots with crushed rock compared to unamended control plots. At the 2 sites where baseline pre-treatment data were available, neither total SOC nor SON decreased over the 2 years of study in plots with crushed rock or unamended control plots. However, the accrual rate of MAOM-C and MAOM-N at 0–10 cm was lower in plots with crushed rock vs. unamended controls. Before ERW is deployed at large scales, our results suggest that field trials should assess the effects of crushed rock on SOM pools, especially over multi-year time scales and in different environmental contexts, to accurately assess changes in net C and understand the mechanisms driving interactions between ERW and SOM cycling.
The demand for variable electricity and heat is met by fossil-fuel power plants because the power plant capital costs and the cost of storing fossil fuels are low. A low-carbon economy requires replacement of the storage function of fossil fuels to provide variable heat and electricity as needed. The Crushed Rock Ultra-large Stored Heat (CRUSH) system is a new technology with the goal to provide heat storage at an incremental capital cost of $2–4/kWh at scales of 10 s to 100 s of GWhs that enables economic daily to multi-week storage. CRUSH can be coupled to nuclear power plants, concentrated solar power (CSP) plants and thermal energy batteries to provide variable electricity and heat on demand. Sensible heat is stored in crushed rock—the lowest-cost heat-storage material. Heat is transferred to and from the crushed rock using nitrate salt or heat-transfer oils but these fluids do not store heat. Heat from a nuclear reactor, CSP plant or conversion of low-price electricity into heat is used to heat the salt or oil. The hot fluid is poured over the crushed rock, trickles downward by gravity through the rock, heats the rock and is collected by the drain pans under the crushed rock. To recover heat cold salt or oil is poured over hot crushed rock, trickles down by gravity while being heated and is collected by the drain pans under the crushed rock. The system design and engineering trade-offs are described. The technology is in the early stages of development.
The oxidative weathering of sulfidic rock can profoundly impact watersheds through the resulting export of acidity and metals. Weathering leaves a record of mineral transformation, particularly involving minor redox-sensitive phases, that can inform the development of conceptual and quantitative models. In sulfidic sedimentary rocks, however, variations in depositional history, diagenesis and mineralization can change or overprint the distributions of these trace minerals, complicating the interpretation of weathering signatures. Here we show that a combination of bulk mineralogical and geochemical techniques, micrometer-resolution X-ray fluorescence microprobe analysis and rock magnetic measurements, applied to drill core samples and single weathered fractures, can provide data that enable the development of a geochemically consistent weathering model. This work focused on one watershed in the Upper Colorado River Basin sitting within the Mesaverde Formation, a sedimentary sandstone bedrock with disseminated sulfide minerals, including pyrite and sphalerite, that were introduced during diagenesis and subsequent magmatic-hydrothermal mineralization. Combined analytical methods revealed the pathways of iron (Fe), carbonate and silicate mineral weathering and showed how pH controls element retention or release from the actively weathering fractured sandstone. Drill core logging, whole rock X-ray diffraction, and geochemical measurements document the progression from unweathered rock at depth to weathered rock at the surface. X-ray microprobe analyses of a 1-cm size weathering profile along a fracture surface are consistent with the mobilization of Fe(II) and Fe(III) into acidic pore water from the dissolution of primary pyrite, Fe-sphalerite, chlorite, and minor siderite and pyrrhotite. These reactions are followed by the precipitation of secondary minerals such as of goethite and jarosite, a Fe-(oxyhydr)oxide and hydrous Fe(III) sulfate, respectively. Microscale analyses also helped explain the weathering reactions responsible for the mineralogical transformations observed in the top and most weathered section of the drill core. For example, dissolution of feldspar and chlorite neutralizes the acidity generated by Fe and sulfide mineral oxidation, oversaturating the solution in both Fe-oxides. The combination of X-ray spectromicroscopy and magnetic measurements show that the Fe(III) product is goethite, mainly present either as a coating on fracture surfaces in the actively weathering region of the core or more homogeneously contained within the unconsolidated regolith at the top of the core. Low-temperature magnetic data reveal the presence of ferromagnetic Fe-sulfide pyrrhotite that, although it occurs at trace concentrations, could provide a qualitative proxy for unweathered sulfide minerals because the loss of pyrrhotite is associated with the onset of oxidative weathering. Pyrrhotite loss and goethite formation are detectable through room-temperature magnetic coercivity changes, suggesting that rock magnetic measurements can determine weathering intensity in rock samples at many scales. In conclusion, this work contributes evidence that the weathering of sulfidic sedimentary rocks follows a geochemical pattern in which the abundance of sulfide minerals controls the generation of acidity and dissolved elements, and the pH-dependent mobility of these elements controls their export to the ground- and surface-water.
Rocks have inherently heterogeneous micro-structures. The mechanical response of these heterogeneous micro-structures primarily governs the overall macroscopic behavior of intact rocks, as these features cause heterogeneity in the distribution of stress and strain within a rock volume. These attributes have generally been studied through numerical tools, but in this study, the stress-induced multi-scale spatial heterogeneity in the strain-field of three types of rocks was analyzed experimentally. The full-field non-contact strain measurement approach of 2D Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was employed for real-time evaluation of the progression of strain-field heterogeneity across the surface of the rock specimens when subjected to uniaxial compression. The results show that the strain-field heterogeneity is a characteristic of the inherent heterogeneity of the rock specimens, and that it amplifies with the magnitude of stress applied on the rock specimens. The changes in the strain-field heterogeneity with loading were consistent with established microcrack evolution processes in the rock specimens. The statistical fluctuation in the strain-field heterogeneity of the three rocks at varying gauge lengths (GL) was then analyzed for the determination of the Representative Volume Element (RVE) length-scale at increasing load levels. The evolution of the RVE length-scale with loading facilitates an objective way of determination of the stress at which the strain-field heterogeneity increases and begins to influence the overall global response of the material. The RVE length-scale variation with loading showed that at the RVE length-scale reaches the specimen-scale at load levels well below the peak strength.
Ex-situ carbon mineralization is a process by which CO2 is reacted with alkaline silicate minerals and rocks to produce stable carbonate materials, which can be used for other industrial processes. Arizona, U.S.A., hosts abundant surficial mafic rocks in three young volcanic fields, Geronimo-San Bernardino, San Francisco, and Springerville, and other distributed locations throughout the state. We created a Mafic Rock Resource Inventory (MRRI) that categorizes geochemical, physical, and textural characteristics of a diverse suite of surficial mafic rock samples and provide a benchmark reaction dataset parameterizing the temperature, pressure, and pH conditions best suited ex-situ mineralization in different rock types. MRRI data is publicly available online via a map-viewer. We establish two reaction condition sets, varied in temperature, pressure, and pH, where crystal-rich and glassy rocks reach maximum reaction extent and different carbonate phases are formed. Systematic ex-situ mineralization experiments on 21 diverse rock types show trends in geochemical, mineralogical, and reactivity behavior and establish maximum effective capture capacity. From this, scoria cones in three Arizona volcanic fields have a ~62 Gt effective CO₂ storage capacity with one of the fields having a ~42 Gt storage capacity in lava flows. Reactivity results have applications to alkaline mafic rock resources exposed globally, including producing additional effective storage capacity estimates and scaled commercialization of mafic rock ex-situ mineralization, should reaction extents be improved through advances in mineralization techniques. MRRI data were used to create a Direct Air Capture to Mineralization (DACM) systems model, technoeconomic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. These documents are presented as three appendices.
One concern for geologic CO 2 sequestration is the potential leakage of CO 2 or CO 2 -saturated brine containing trace metals into overlying aquifers, which poses the risk of adversely affecting underground sources of drinking water. In this work, rock and brine samples collected in the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP), a large-scale geological CO 2 sequestration demonstration project in Decatur, Illinois, USA, as well as synthetic brine samples were used to understand the mobilization of trace metals as a result of CO 2 –rock–brine interactions under IBDP-specific conditions (50 °C and 20.6 MPa). Rock sample characterization indicated that, at the IBDP site, trace metal concentrations were greatest in cap rock samples from the Eau Claire Formation, compared with those from formations above and below this Formation. The natural brine samples collected from the Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir were highly reducing and saline, with trace metal concentrations up to 680 times greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-prescribed drinking water standards. Batch leaching experiments indicated that both trace metal mobilization from rock and immobilization from the brine occurred when high-pressure CO 2 was introduced into the rock-brine system. The amounts of metals mobilized from the rock generally accounted for <5% of the total metals in the rock, but for some metals, including Ni, Pb, and Tl, up to 63% of the metals in the rock were mobilized to the brine. Leaching of trace metals into synthetic brines was different from that into the natural brine. The results of this study provided current information on the trace element sources and will help in risk simulations and experimental design to further evaluate potential impact of leakage on groundwater quality, which is important for future GCS projects to consider for monitoring and containment assurance purposes.
Rocks at Earth's surface experience progressive damage due to exposure to environmental conditions. Although environmental damage to rocks is recognized as being time-dependent, our quantitative understanding of its effects on physical and mechanical properties remains limited by field and laboratory studies constrained to short timescales. In this study, we aim to rigorously quantify how these properties evolve under longer natural environmental exposure spanning from the Holocene to the late Pleistocene. We conducted a ‘time series’ analysis of key physical and mechanical rock properties using multiple interior samples from 10 cogenetic granitoid boulders exposed for different amounts of time at two sites in Eastern California, USA. We find that over the late Pleistocene (~30 ka), rocks exhibit porosity increases of 40 ± 4 % and seismic velocity decreases of 7 ± 1 % at both sites. Similarly, over the same time period, rock tensile and compressive strengths declined by an average of 11 ± 4 %, and rock permeability increased on average by 104 ± 50 %. Microscopic analysis of thin sections of the same rocks indicates that microfracture density and intensity also progressively increased over the same timescales. These results suggest that time-dependent fracture propagation due to environmental exposure is likely a central contributor to the observed changes in rock properties. This study provides quantitative documentation that pronounced changes in the physical and mechanical properties of rock progressively occur within thousands of years of exposure.
Mass transport by aqueous fluids is a dynamic process in shallow crustal systems, redistributing nutrients as well as contaminants. Rock matrix diffusion into fractures (void space) within crystalline rock has been postulated to play an important role in the transient storage of solutes. The reacted volume of host rock involved, however, will be controlled by fluid-rock reactions. Here we present the results of a study which focusses on defining the length scale over which rock matrix diffusion operates within crystalline rock over timescales that are relevant to safety assessment of radioactive and other long-lived wastes. Through detailed chemical and structural analysis of natural specimens sampled at depth from an active system (Toki Granite, Japan), we show that, contrary to commonly proposed models, the length scale of rock matrix diffusion may be extremely small, on the order of centimetres, even over timescales of millions of years. This implies that in many cases the importance of rock matrix diffusion will be minimal. Additional analyses of a contrasting crystalline rock system (Carnmenellis Granite, UK) corroborate these results.
Enhanced weathering (EW) through the application of ground rock is a competitive carbon removal strategy. Adoption of this technology at a meaningful scale requires a systematic assessment of its long-term feasibility, especially with regard to soil quality from the application of rock amendments that contain varying levels of heavy metal (loid)s (HM) such as Cu, Ni, Cr, Co, and Pb. The potential accumulation of these metal (loid)s could be an unintended consequence of repeated large-scale EW applications, necessitating careful evaluation for use in croplands. This study explores the idea of using phytoremediation as a natural, low-cost means of remediating rock-amended soils. Specifically, we examined the ability of Nerium oleander and Salix alba species to remove HM from rock-amended soils in their tissues (i.e., leaves, stems, and roots). In this study, the relative abundance of HM accumulation in hyperaccumulator plants followed the order: Si > Rb > Cu > Sn > Cr > Cd > Pb > Ni > Mo > Co > As > Sb > Se > Cs. Our results indicate that HM accumulation in soils treated with rock were significantly below permissible limits set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Further, in reasonable amounts, some of these HM serve as essential micronutrients required by plants. In fact, we found increased growth and higher biomass for both plants under rock application than without. We further found a significant uptake of most HM in rock-amended soils planted with S. alba. Comparatively, uptake of certain HM like Ni, Mo, Cs, Pb and Cu was relatively higher in the roots of N. oleander. In contrast to N. oleander, S. alba accumulated higher levels of HM in its stems and leaves than in its roots. Interestingly, 31–35% weathering of metabasalt (applied rock) was observed across plant types over a 5-month period. Overall, we conclude that S. alba has a greater potential for phytoremediation in rock-amended soils, although both plants may be useful in remediating soils with varying levels and types of contamination.
This submission includes an update to the WHOLESCALESamples2021January.xls file where the strikes and dips initially reported have been corrected to comply with the right hand rule. The updated excel file and a link to the original submission are included in this report. The original submission "WHOLESCALE Catalog of Rock Samples at San Emidio Nevada collected in January 2021" contains information on thirty-six rock samples collected from San Emidio, Nevada during January, 2021 for Subtask 2.3 of the WHOLESCALE project. The following resources include a .zip of rock sample photos taken in the field, a .zip of rock sample photos taken in the laboratory at UW-Madison, and an excel catalog of rock samples with information on sample name, rock type, coordinates of sample location, structural measurements, field notes, observations for plug preparation (e.g., weathering, ability to be cut and cored), and rock descriptions. It should be noted that not every sample was photographed in the field. Names and descriptions of rock formation units are taken from Rhodes et al. (2011). The README.txt file is a description of this submission.
Models suggest that rock-derived nitrogen (N) inputs are of global importance to ecosystem N budgets; however, field studies demonstrating the significance of rock N inputs are rare. We examined rock-derived N fluxes in soils derived from sedimentary rocks along a catena formed under a semi-arid climate. Our measurements demonstrate that there are distinct and traceable pools of N in the soil and bedrock and that the fraction of rock-derived N declines downslope along the catena. We used geochemical mass balance weathering flux measurements to estimate a rock-derived N flux of 0.145 to 0.896 kg ha -1 yr -1 at the ridgecrest. We also developed independent N flux estimates using a 15 N-based isotope mixing model. While geochemical mass-balance-based estimates fell within the 95% confidence range derived from the isotope mixing model (-1.1 to 44.3 kg ha -1 yr -1 ), this range was large due to uncertainty in values for atmospheric 15 N deposition. Along the catena, N isotopes suggest a diminishing effect of rock-derived N downslope. Overall, we found that despite relatively large N pools within the saprolite and bedrock, slow chemical weathering and landscape denudation limit the influence of rock-derived N, letting atmospheric N deposition (7.1 kg ha -1 yr -1 ) and N fixation (0.9-3.1 kg ha -1 yr -1 ) dominate N inputs to this grassland ecosystem.
Geologic carbon storage projects aim to permanently trap large volumes of CO 2 in reservoir rock sealed with low permeability layers. As high-pressure supercritical or liquid CO 2 is injected, hydromechanical and chemical processes caused by the reaction between the rock and acidic mixture of brine and CO 2 are initiated. The compressibility of reservoir rock needs to be properly characterized in order to assess the deformation and stability of the host formations, and there are a number of factors to be considered, including the matrix structure, solid, pores, and fluid. Here this study triggers from a fundamental question whether CO 2 treatment affects the compressibility of the rock matrix and its dominant composing solid minerals. Three different reservoir representatives are selected: Berea sandstone for silica-rich rock, and Apulian limestone and Indiana limestone for calcite-rich rock. Quartz and calcite are the main composing minerals of the reservoir rock, and their crystals are separately examined. Experimental methods are introduced for high-pressure CO 2 treatment of water-saturated materials, and measurements of the unjacketed and solid compressibilities are conducted. No change in the solid compressibility of the sandstone and quartz after CO 2 treatment is observed, whereas it increases by 18–21% for the limestones and by 15% for calcite. The latter observation is inconsistent with the ultrasonic wave velocities measurements and is believed to be due to the local dissolution of the calcite crystal surface. Our results show that only the solid matrix of the limestones becomes more compressible after CO 2 treatment. Consequent microimaging and mercury intrusion porosimetry analyses allowed observations of dissolution and precipitation of calcite, and creation of new connected and non-connected pores. Finally, the changes in limestone solid compressibilities and pore structure could significantly affect the rock properties and behavior during and after CO 2 injection and should be accounted for in the reservoir models.
Predicting the proximity of large-scale dynamic failure is a critical concern in the engineering and geophysical sciences. Here we use evolving contractive, dilatational, and shear strain deformation preceding failure in dynamic X-ray tomography experiments to examine which strain components best predict the proximity to failure. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity to failure using time series of three-dimensional local incremental strain tensor fields acquired in rock deformation experiments under stress conditions of the upper crust. Three-dimensional scans acquired in situ throughout triaxial compression experiments provide a distribution of density contrasts from which we estimate the three-dimensional incremental strain that accumulates between each scan acquisition. Training machine learning models on multiple experiments of six rock types provides suites of feature importance that indicate the predictive power of each feature. Comparing the average importance of groups of features that include information about each strain component quantifies the ability of the contractive, dilatational and shear strain to predict the proximity of macroscopic failure. A total of 24 models of four machine learning algorithms with six rock types indicate that 1) the dilatational strain provides the best predictive power of the strain components, and 2) the intermediate values (25th-75th percentile) of the strain population provide the best predictive power of the statistics of the strain populations. In addition, the success of the predictions of models trained on one rock type and tested on other rock types quantifies the similarities and differences of the precursory strain accumulation process in the six rock types. These similarities suggest the potential existence of a unified theory of brittle rock deformation for a range of rock types.