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NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Constellation Program Flight Test Methodology and Strategy

Main projects elements: a) Orion & Ares b) New & Modified heritage hardware. c) Shuttle retirement in 2010. Methodology: a) Flight test objectives. b) Risk reduction. Strategy a) Mapping Flight Test Objectives. b) Build incremental capability.

Vigil, Art↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Top Human System Research and Technology Needs for Mars

NASA is working with industry and international partners to return humans to the moon and eventually enable a human Mars mission. Within NASA, several organizations work together to identify, prioritize, fund, execute, and operationalize the crew health and performance (CHP) research and technology development (R&D) necessary to enable these future missions. These organizations include flight programs as well as other organizations such as the Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA), Human Research Program, Space Technology Mission Directorate, and System Capability Leadership Teams, each of which existed for several years prior to the creation of the Moon-to-Mars (M2M) Program Office in 2023. A variety of constructs, vocabularies, and processes exist for the management of risks and strategic planning across these organizations. For example, M2M objectives, program risks, human system risks, human research gaps, capability gaps, and envisioned futures are all constructs currently used within NASA for identifying and prioritizing R&D needs. Alignment and evolution of these strategic planning constructs is ongoing and will allow for alignment and traceability between M2M objectives and R&D investments at a detailed level. While this reorganization is ongoing, and even after it is established, there is a recognized need among stakeholder organizations to identify and communicate the highest CHP R&D priorities in a unified and digestible way that synthesizes the considerations and perspectives of the CHP community across NASA. To achieve this, the HMTA facilitated a series of group discussions with representatives of NASA’s CHP community, which culminated in a product identifying the eight highest priority mission-enabling CHP capabilities for human missions to Mars, referred to as the “Top Human System Capability Needs for Mars”. The list includes Earth-Independent Human Operations; Mars Duration Food System; Mars Duration Effects on Human Physiology; Risks Mitigations for Vehicle Atmospheres; Computational Injury & Anthropometric Models; Exploration Exercise Countermeasures; Individual Variability in Responses to Spaceflight; and Sensorimotor Countermeasures. Existing strategic planning and risk management tools and processes were considered, as well as practicalities of technical, cost, and schedule feasibility associated with potential R&D risk mitigations and technology solutions. The product is not owned by any one organization and does not replace existing strategic or program planning processes; rather it aims to complement and inform them with a unified set of community generated priorities. It is anticipated that this list will be re-evaluated periodically based on R&D progress and the evolving M2M architecture.

Life Support↗

NASA NTRS2024

NASA’s Top Human System Research and Technology Needs for Mars

NASA is working with industry and international partners to return humans to the Moon and to eventually enable humans to explore Mars. Within NASA, several organizations work together to identify, prioritize, fund, execute, and operationalize the research and technology development (R&TD) that will be necessary to enable crew health and performance (CHP) during these future missions. These organizations include flight programs, the Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA), the Human Research Program, the Space Technology Mission Directorate, System Capability Leadership Teams, and other organizations, many of which existed for several years prior to the creation of the Moon-to-Mars (M2M) Program Office in 2023. A variety of constructs, vocabularies, and processes exist for managing risks and supporting strategic planning across these organizations. For example, M2M objectives, program risks, human system risks, human research gaps, capability gaps, and envisioned futures are all constructs currently used within NASA to identify and prioritize R&TD needs. These strategic planning constructs are evolving to allow M2M objectives and R&TD investments to be aligned and traced at a detailed level. A recognized need exists among stakeholder organizations to identify and communicate the highest CHP R&TD priorities in a unified and digestible way that addresses the perspectives of NASA’s CHP community. To achieve this, the HMTA arranged a series of discussions with representatives of NASA’s CHP community, during which the 8 highest priority CHP capabilities that will enable human missions to Mars, referred to as the “top human system capability needs for Mars”, were identified. The list includes Earth-independent human operations; Mars-duration food system; Mars-duration effects on human physiology; risk mitigations for vehicle atmospheres; computational injury and anthropometric models; exploration exercise countermeasures; individual variability in responses to spaceflight; and sensorimotor countermeasures. Existing tools and processes for strategic planning and risk management were evaluated, as well as the technical practicalities, cost, and schedule feasibility associated with potential R&TD investments in different capability need areas. This capability needs report is not owned by any one NASA organization and does not replace existing strategic or program planning processes; rather it aims to complement and inform them with a unified set of community generated priorities. These top capability needs will be re-evaluated periodically based on R&TD progress and the evolving M2M architecture.

technology gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Top Human System Research and Technology Needs for Mars

technology gaps↗

NASA NTRS1985

Space Station crew safety alternatives study. Volume 5: Space Station safety plan

The Space Station Safety Plan has been prepared as an adjunct to the subject contract final report, suggesting the tasks and implementation procedures to ensure that threats are addressed and resolution strategy options identified and incorporated into the space station program. The safety program's approach is to realize minimum risk exposure without levying undue design and operational constraints. Safety objectives and risk acceptances are discussed.

Mead, G. H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

risk↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A Risk‐Based Framework for Expanding Flood Sensor Networks

In coupled human and natural systems, developing an observation strategy which maximizes insight into both the natural system and the human system is a challenging multi-objective optimization problem. In this article, we describe the expansion of a flood risk observation system in Southeast Texas designed to improve our understanding of both physical and socioeconomic exposure to hydrological hazards at fine spatial scales, in the context of a structured hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk framework. We describe a new approach for assessing the spatial extent through which a flood sensor's observations can be assumed to be relevant, and estimate the population served within each sensor's area of information using downscaled socio-demographic data. As hydrological observations and modeling move to ever finer scale, assessing the information they contain in the context of both social and natural systems becomes increasingly important for developing actionable scientific insights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Repository for Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks.

These data support the manuscript "Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks." These data are generated to allow water managers to reason about optimal locations to expand a flood observation system from multiple perspectives, specifically focusing on flood hazards, and population exposure to flooding. The data included are a) a shapefile of individual sensor locations b) a shapefile of river reach catchments, c) raster of FEMA flood likelihood layers d) shapefile of population locations and population socioeconomic characteristics. The code is written in R and includes all files necessary to generate the figures for the associated manuscript. Interactive maps of the final calculated maps of hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk are also included as html files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Combined effects of space flight factors and radiation on humans

The probability that a dose of ionizing radiation kills a cell is about 10,000 times the probability that the cell will be transformed to malignancy. On the other hand, the number of cells killed required to significantly impact health is about 10,000 times the number that must be transformed to cause a late malignancy. If these two risks, cell killing and malignant transformation, are about equal, then the risk that occurs during a mission is more significant than the risk that occurs after a mission. The latent period for acute irradiation effects (cell killing) is about 2-4 weeks; the latent period for malignancy is 10-20 years. If these statements are approximately true, then the impact of cell killing on health in the low-gravity environment of space flight should be examined to establish an estimate of risk. The objective of this study is to synthesize data and conclusions from three areas of space biology and environmental health to arrive at rational risk assessment for radiations received by spacecraft crews: (1) the increased physiological demands of the space flight environment; (2) the effects of the space flight environment on physiological systems; and (3) the effects of radiation on physiological systems. One physiological system has been chosen: the immune response and its components, consisting of myeloid and lymphoid proliferative cell compartments. Best-case and worst-case scenarios are considered. In the worst case, a doubling of immune-function demand, accompanied by a halving of immune capacity, would reduce the endangering dose to a crew member to around 1 Gy.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2019

Effect of Latitude Bias in Entry Angle on Ground Casualty Risk from Naturally Decaying Space Objects

An improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from naturally decaying space objects is the refinement to the distribution of entry angle at the entry interface as a function of latitude. Previous analyses were based on an assumed "small angle," typically -0.1°, and entry interface at the equator. This study expands on work by Bacon and Matney that indicated there is significant latitude bias in the location of reentries, compared to prior assumptions of equal temporal probability. A new model has been developed, which describes the distribution of entry angle as a function of orbital inclination and argument of latitude. This model has been used to generate inputs for ODPO’s certified reentry survivability software, Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). These new results are compared with the prior standard model to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Analysis and Derivation of Allocations for Fiber Contaminants in Liquid Bipropellant Systems

An analysis was performed to identify the engineering rationale for the existing particulate limits in MSFC-SPEC-164, Cleanliness of Components for Use in Oxygen, Fuel, and Pneumatic Systems, determine the applicability of this rationale to fibers, identify potential risks that may result from fiber contamination in liquid oxygen/fuel bipropellant systems, and bound each of these risks. The objective of this analysis was to determine whether fiber contamination exceeding the established quantitative limits for particulate can be tolerated in these systems and, if so, to derive and recommend quantitative allocations for fibers beyond the limits established for other particulate. Knowledge gaps were identified that limit a complete understanding of the risk of promoted ignition from an accumulation of fibers in a gaseous oxygen system.

Lowrey, N. M↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Jettison and Disposal from Near Rectilinear Halo Orbits, Part 1: Theory

The proposed Gateway spacecraft in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) will be a human outpost in cislunar space. The baseline mission may experience the deployment of visiting vehicles, cubesats, and on-orbit debris. Departure from the NRHO and cislunar space is nontrivial due to the complex gravitational environment that persists in and around Gateway. Long-term disposal orbits in heliocentric space offer safe destinations for deployed objects. To mitigate risks associated with conjunctions between Gateway and deployed objects, strategies to identify risk-avoidant paths to heliocentric space are necessary for Gateway mission operations.

Stephen T. Scheuerle↗