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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

History Matching and Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope is ongoing. After more than 3 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is less than that of the same polymer used in a polymer pilot in Argentina.

Wang, Xindan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Legacy Well Leakage Risk Analysis at the Farnsworth Unit Site

This paper summarizes the results of the risk analysis and characterization of the CO 2 and brine leakage potential of Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site wells. The study is part of the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) program, which aims to quantitatively evaluate long-term environmental risks under conditions of significant geologic uncertainty and variability. To achieve this, NRAP utilizes risk assessment and computational tools specifically designed to quantify uncertainties and calculate the risk associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. For this study, we have developed a workflow that utilizes physics-based reservoir simulation results as input to perform leakage calculations using NRAP Tools, specifically NRAP-IAM-CS and RROM-Gen. These tools enable us to conduct leakage risk analysis based on ECLIPSE reservoir simulation results and to characterize wellbore leakage at the Farnsworth Unit Site. We analyze the risk of leakage from both individual wells and the entire field under various wellbore integrity distribution scenarios. The results of the risk analysis for the leakage potential of FWU wells indicate that, when compared to the total amount of CO 2 injected, the highest cemented well integrity distribution scenario (FutureGen high flow rate) exhibits approximately 0.01% cumulative CO 2 leakage for a 25-year CO 2 injection duration at the end of a 50-year post-injection monitoring period. In contrast, the highest possible leakage scenario (open well) shows approximately 0.1% cumulative CO 2 leakage over the same time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stepwise Dynamic Calibration of a Hydromechanical Simulation Using Time-Lapse Vertical Seismic Profile

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is the 13-10A injector well within the ongoing CO2-EOR operation of the Farnsworth Field Unit. The Time-lapse VSP dataset carries the combined effects of fluid substitution and mean effective stress changes, thereby providing a dataset amenable for the calibration of production and injection-induced stress changes. The concept is similar to calibrating a reservoir simulation model in that the process honor real field data to set up an inverse problem. The solution optimizes the independent and impactful geomechanical parameters that replicate the observed time-lapse seismic velocity changes. This stress calibration is enabled by 4D geomechanical modeling and the VSP Integration workflow. This calibration benefits from extensive geological, geophysical and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the 13-10A subject well. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model. The Biot Gassmann workflow combines rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the fluid substitution contribution to seismic velocity change. Additionally, modeled seismic velocity attributed to mean effective stress are determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from the ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements on the extracted Morrow B core. A penalty function is then formed between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. Four independent and impactful geomechanical parameters have been determined. These are the bulk modulus and shear modulus for zero porosity and the shear and compressional seismic velocity to mean effective stress derivatives. The dataset of numerous coupled hydromechanical- geomechanical simulation realizations is built by combining variations of the four stated geomechanical parameters. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer are used to converge on the optimal geomechanical parameters. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of irregularly-distributed acidified brine flow on geo-chemo-mechanical alteration in an artificial shale fracture under differential stress

The efficacy of geological carbon sequestration is reliant on the integrity of the caprock and its resistance to physical and chemical alteration. Caprocks with high abundance of reactive carbonates like calcite are susceptible to acid-promoted dissolution and can result in structural weakening. This work investigates the effect of acidified brine flow through an artificially fractured, high-carbonate (30 % by XRD) shale under differential compressive stress. Cylindrical samples were cut in half vertically and milled to create an artificial fracture with interlocking asperities and open channels. Samples were sheared with a single applied stress in a custom flow cell housed within an industrial CT scanner. Further, either acidic (pH 4) or reservoir-simulated (pH 9.5) brine was flowed through the artificial fracture for 7–8 days under reservoir pressure and room temperature. Model simulations indicate flow mainly occurred in open channels, with limited flow between overlapping asperities. Analysis of fracture surfaces by optical and scanning electron microscopy show increased surface alteration and roughness after exposure to pH 4 versus pH 9.5 brine indicating mineral dissolution/loss, and this effect is greater in areas that receive the highest brine flows. Similarly, surface analysis by scratch testing shows fracture toughness decreases more after exposure to acidic versus reservoir-simulated brine, with the greatest alteration in areas of highest acidic brine flows. Despite weakening, no shear slip occurred. Overall, the results indicate that acidified brine can result in significant physical and geomechanical alteration of irregular fracture surfaces in shale caprock, with greatest effects in preferential flow regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States

This technical report documents research conducted under DOE Award No. DE-FE0031837 focused on evaluating the feasibility of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) systems in the central and western United States. The project integrated geologic characterization, reservoir simulation, infrastructure modeling, and economic analysis to assess CO₂ storage potential near industrial sources and develop strategies for transport and sequestration. The work included subsurface modeling, risk assessment, monitoring and verification (MRV) planning, and evaluation of regulatory pathways such as EPA Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permitting and IRS 45Q tax credit eligibility. Results demonstrate the viability of multiple storage approaches, including saline formations, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, and basalt mineralization, supported by data-driven workflows and regional analyses. The project also produced permitting templates, technology transfer activities, and stakeholder engagement efforts to support deployment readiness. These findings contribute to the development of scalable, economically viable CCUS systems and provide a repeatable framework for future carbon management projects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

GEOS: A performance portable multi-physics simulation framework for subsurface applications

GEOS is a simulation framework focused on solving tightly coupled multi-physics problems with an initial emphasis on subsurface reservoir applications. Currently, GEOS supports capabilities for studying carbon sequestration, geothermal energy, hydrogen storage, and related subsurface applications. The unique aspect of GEOS that differentiates it from existing reservoir simulators is the ability to simulate tightly coupled compositional flow, poromechanics, fault slip, fracture propagation, and thermal effects, etc. Extensive documentation is available on the GEOS documentation pages (GEOS Documentation, 2024). Note that GEOS, as presented here, is a complete rewrite of the previous incarnation of the GEOS referred to in (Settgast et al., 2017).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs: Preprint

Subsurface data analysis, reservoir modeling, and machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to the Brady Hot Springs (BHS) geothermal field in Nevada, USA to further characterize the subsurface and assist with optimizing reservoir management. Hundreds of reservoir simulations have been conducted in TETRAD-G and CMG STARS to explore different injection and production fluid flow rates and allocations and to develop a training data set for ML. This process included simulating the historical injection and production since 1979 and prediction of future performance through 2040. ML networks were created and trained using TensorFlow based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures. These networks took as input selected flow rates, injection temperatures, and historical field operation data and produced estimates of future production temperatures. This approach was first successfully tested on a simplified single fracture doublet system, followed by the application to the BHS reservoir. Using an initial BHS dataset with 37 simulated scenarios, the trained and validated network predicted the production temperature for 6 production wells with the mean absolute percentage error of less than 8%. In a complementary analysis effort, the principal component analysis applied to 13 BHS geological parameters revealed that vertical fracture permeability shows the strongest correlation with fault density and fault intersection density. A new BHS reservoir model was developed considering the fault intersection density as proxy for permeability. This new reservoir model helps to explore under-exploited zones in the reservoir. A data gathering plan to obtain additional subsurface data was developed; it includes temperature surveying for three idle injection wells, at which the reservoir simulations indicate high bottom-hole temperatures. The collected data assist with calibrating the reservoir model and may lead to converting these wells to producers to access under-exploited zones in the reservoir. Data gathering activities are planned for the first quarter of 2021.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗
DOE OSTI2023

Steptoe Valley NV Data Compilation: Understanding a Stratigraphic Hydrothermal Resource through Geophysical Imaging

Sandia National Laboratories partnered with a multi-disciplinary group of subject matter experts to evaluate a stratigraphic geothermal resource in Steptoe Valley, Nevada using both established and novel geophysical imaging techniques. Provided here are a compilation of newly acquired data over the area and select modeling efforts. This encompasses a 3D geological model (inclusive of full Leapfrog files, Leapfrog viewer files, and XYZ data for faults and stratigraphy) with embedded geophysical modeling, controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) and magnetotelluric (MT) data packages, aqueous spring geochemistry data, seismic reflection interpretations, and a gravity data package. The stratigraphic reservoir in Steptoe Valley was previously discovered during oil and gas exploration. Subsequent studies, such as the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis, added data which further highlighted potential resource targets in the basin. Geophysical surveys, complimented with refined geologic mapping and geochemical sampling, were deployed to further characterize the resource. The resulting 3D geologic interpretation, conceptual model refinements, and reservoir simulations suggest that a power-capable reservoir is economically accessible in the Paleozoic carbonates of the deep/central basin. Additional geophysical characterization and exploration drilling efforts are recommended to calibrate interpretation and determine where/how to potentially develop the Steptoe resource. The geophysical tools, interpretations, lessons learned, and publicly available data generated by this study establish an exploration methodology to inform decisions for successful development of stratigraphic reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subsurface H 2 Storage: A Williston Basin Commercial-Scale Resource Study

Poster for the 2024 NETL Resource Sustainability Project Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, April 2-4, 2024. This poster presents a commercial‑scale assessment of subsurface hydrogen storage potential in the North Dakota portion of the Williston Basin, evaluating saline formations, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, and salt formations. The study integrates laboratory characterization, reservoir simulation, and basinwide analysis to assess storage capacity, injectivity, recovery, and risks related to geochemical, microbial, and wellbore interactions. Results support the feasibility of large‑volume, secure hydrogen storage and provide a framework to guide future hydrogen commercialization and infrastructure development.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

A New Modeling Framework for Multi-Scale Simulation of Hydraulic Fracturing and Production from Unconventional Reservoirs

This paper describes a new modeling framework for microscopic to reservoir-scale simulations of hydraulic fracturing and production. The approach builds upon a fusion of two existing high-performance simulators for reservoir-scale behavior: the GEOS code for hydromechanical evolution during stimulation and the TOUGH+ code for multi-phase flow during production. The reservoir-scale simulations are informed by experimental and modeling studies at the laboratory scale to incorporate important micro-scale mechanical processes and chemical reactions occurring within the fractures, the shale matrix, and at the fracture-fluid interfaces. These processes include, among others, changes in stimulated fracture permeability as a result of proppant behavior rearrangement or embedment, or mineral scale precipitation within pores and microfractures, at µm to cm scales. In our new modeling framework, such micro-scale testing and modeling provides upscaled hydromechanical parameters for the reservoir scale models. We are currently testing the new modeling framework using field data and core samples from the Hydraulic Fracturing Field Test (HFTS), a recent field-based joint research experiment with intense monitoring of hydraulic fracturing and shale production in the Wolfcamp Formation in the Permian Basin (USA). Below, we present our approach coupling the reservoir simulators GEOS and TOUGH+ informed by upscaled parameters from micro-scale experiments and modeling. We provide a brief overview of the HFTS and the available field data, and then discuss the ongoing application of our new workflow to the HFTS data set.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Voronoi Meshing to Accurately Capture Geological Structure in Subsurface Simulations

Mesh generation lies at the interface of geological modeling and reservoir simulation. Highly skewed or very small grid cells may be necessary to accurately capture the geometry of geological features, but the resulting poorly scaled or small grid cells can have a substantial negative impact on simulator accuracy and speed. One way to minimize numerical errors caused by gridding complex structures is to simulate on high-quality Voronoi meshes, which reduce grid orientation effects in fluid flow. This work presents a complete methodology to create Voronoi simulation grids, model fluid flow in complex geological systems, and visualize the results. A recently developed Voronoi meshing method that can automatically generate provably good unstructured meshes that conform to input surfaces creating closed volumes is used. Initially an analytical benchmark simulation is presented to validate the quality of the meshes and simulation results and demonstrate the superiority of simulation results using Voronoi meshes over flexed-hexahedral meshes on a domain with internal features. Next, meshes are created for test structures representing four of the most common geological features in the subsurface: layering, pinch-out, an interior lens that tapers to zero thickness on all sides and a fault with offset. Two benchmark flow simulations are run for each test structure. Finally, a realistic geological example for CO 2 injection into an anticline is simulated. Three realizations of the Voronoi mesh at the same resolution are generated for the simulations. Each mesh is highly refined near the injection wells and coarse in areas of less interest. These three meshes are used to model the CO 2 plume in the subsurface as it migrates to the top of the structure and then fills downward. Simulations on the meshes with randomly generated elements inside the input volumes each give slightly different fingering patterns for the viscous-unstable buoyant gas flow. The results presented in this work show a promising step towards utilizing fully automated Voronoi meshing for subsurface flow simulations in complex geology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Defining Infrastructure Feasibility for Hub-Scale Offshore Atlantic Carbon Storage in the Northeastern United States

In the Northeast U.S., deep rock formations along the Atlantic outer continental shelf may have the potential to sequester 150–1136 million metric tons of CO2. However, the design and infrastructure necessary to develop offshore carbon storage in this region is not well defined because there has been little oil and gas exploration and no commercial production. Consequently, an infrastructure feasibility design was completed for a hub-scale offshore CO2 storage system along the Northeast U.S. Atlantic. The design included development of a detailed, site-specific geological model for a location near the Great Stone Dome geological structure in the Baltimore Canyon Trough off the coast of Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey. A field injection system topology design was completed to portray a design with eight wells in two clusters connected by central manifolds. Reservoir simulations were completed for the injection system that showed the hub may be able to inject 17 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 per year for thirty years, but injection rates varied substantially across the eight wells. A CO2 pipeline design determined feasible routes from the east coast shoreline to the injection field. Finally, the CO2 injection system design included subsea injection trees, manifolds, and power umbilicals. This is the first study to define large-scale carbon storage design and infrastructure options for the offshore Atlantic, which can help to progress this region towards field characterization and early-mover deployment for future decarbonization in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automatic Calibration of a Geomechanical Model from Sparse Data for Estimating Stress in Deep Geological Formations

Summary In this study, we demonstrate geomechanical modeling with fully automatic parameter calibration to estimate the full geomechanical stress fields of a prospective US carbon dioxide (CO2) storage site, based on sparse measurement data. The goal is to compute full stress tensor field estimates (principal stresses and orientations) that are maximally compatible with observations within the constraints of the model assumptions, thereby extending pointwise, incomplete partial stress measurement to a simulated full formation stress field, as well as a rough assessment of the associated error. We use the Perch site, located in Otsego County, Michigan, USA, as our case study. The input data consist of partial stress tensor information inferred from in-situ borehole tests, geophysical well logs, and processing of seismic data. A static earth model (SEM) of the site was developed, and geomechanical simulation functionality of the open-source MATLAB Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (MRST) was used to model the stress field. Adjoint-based nonlinear optimization was used to adjust boundary conditions and material properties to calibrate simulated results of observations. Results were interpreted through a Bayesian framework. The focus of this paper is to demonstrate how the fully automatic calibration procedure works and discuss the results obtained; it does not attempt a detailed analysis of the stress field in the context of the proposed CO2 storage initiatives. Our work is part of a larger effort to noninvasively determine in-situ stresses in deep formations considered for CO2 storage. Guided by previously published research on geomechanical model calibration, our work presents a novel calibration approach supporting a potentially large number of linear or nonlinear calibration parameters to produce results optimally agreeing with available measurements and thus extend partial pointwise estimates to full tensor fields compatible with the physics of the site.

Engineering↗