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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fundamentals of Resource Adequacy for Modern Power Systems

This webinar covers and introduction to power system resource adequacy, examining definitions, metrics, an overview of probabilistic methods, incentives and capacity credits, storage modeling, and evolving practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foundations of plasma standards

Abstract The field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) excels by virtue of its broad intellectual diversity, interdisciplinarity and range of applications. This great diversity also challenges researchers in communicating the outcomes of their investigations, as common practices and expectations for reporting vary widely in the many disciplines that either fall under the LTP umbrella or interact closely with LTP topics. These challenges encompass comparing measurements made in different laboratories, exchanging and sharing computer models, enabling reproducibility in experiments and computations using traceable and transparent methods and data, establishing metrics for reliability, and in translating fundamental findings to practice. In this paper, we address these challenges from the perspective of LTP standards for measurements, diagnostics, computations, reporting and plasma sources. This discussion on standards, or recommended best practices, and in some cases suggestions for standards or best practices, has the goal of improving communication, reproducibility and transparency within the LTP field and fields allied with LTPs. This discussion also acknowledges that standards and best practices, either recommended or at some point enforced, are ultimately a matter of judgment. These standards and recommended practices should not limit innovation nor prevent research breakthroughs from having real-time impact. Ultimately, the goal of our research community is to advance the entire LTP field and the many applications it touches through a shared set of expectations.

data and reaction mechanisms↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

JGI-Trichoderma v1.0

There is a series of Python and bash scripts to parse genomics datasets used to evaluate the coevolution of gene families and the feature importance of gene families using an SVM classifier. - Cover analysis: takes a list of single-copy genes in a set of genomes, aligns and builds the gene trees to determine if two gene families have a signature of covariation with one another. It parses the files to run phykit cover script described here: https://jlsteenwyk.com/PhyKIT/usage/index.html - SVM-classifier: This Python script is an SVM-based genomic classifier designed for biological data analysis. It combines machine learning with feature selection to identify important genomic markers and classify biological samples. Core Functionality: The script uses Support Vector Machines from scikit-learn to classify genomic data, incorporating SelectKBest for automated feature selection and leave-one-out cross-validation for performance assessment. It operates in multiple modes: feature ranking, optimal combination discovery, and sample prediction. Primary Applications: Genomic sample classification and biomarker discovery Feature importance analysis in high-dimensional biological datasets Prediction of sample categories based on genomic profiles Research applications requiring robust classification of biological data Key Advantages: High-dimensional handling: SVMs excel with genomic data's typical high feature-to-sample ratios Integrated feature selection: Reduces noise and computational overhead while identifying key markers Probability estimation: Provides confidence scores essential for biological interpretation Validation robustness: Leave-one-out cross-validation ensures reliable performance metrics Operational flexibility: Multiple analysis modes support different research phases from exploration to prediction

Stecca Steindorff, Andrei [Lawrence Berkeley Natio↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying grid reliability and resilience impacts of energy efficiency: Examples and opportunities

Traditional reliability and emerging resilience metrics may not fully recognize benefits from distributed energy resources (DERs) such as energy efficiency. This technical brief explains how existing planning processes for bulk power and distribution systems capture the impact of energy efficiency on power system reliability and resilience with illustrative examples. We identify limitations in using existing reliability and resilience metrics to quantify efficiency and other DER benefits. The brief concludes with a discussion of opportunities to enhance current planning practices to better capture the reliability and resilience value of energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and Composition Dependence Modeling of Viscosity and Electrical Conductivity of Low-Activity Waste Glass Melts

The development of models that accurately relate the properties of a glass melt to its temperature and composition is important for glass formulation, melter control, and modeling the melt flow, refractory corrosion, and production rate. Using a database consisting of more than 4,000 data points measured between 900 °C and 1250 °C for over 600 unique low-activity waste glass compositions, we developed models for the melt viscosity and electrical conductivity. Models based on the Gaussian process regression approach outperformed models based on the Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann equation according to four standard metrics and yielded reliable prediction intervals. The models found primarily linear effects between properties and individual components, except for the effect of the Na 2 O mass fraction on the electrical conductivity. The effects were found to be consistent with current theories on physical processes involved with those properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability Improvement and Effective Switching Layer Model of Thin-Film MoS 2 Memristors

2D memristors have demonstrated attractive resistive switching characteristics recently but also suffer from the reliability issue, which limits practical applications. Previous efforts on 2D memristors have primarily focused on exploring new material systems, while damage from the metallization step remains a practical concern for the reliability of 2D memristors. Here, the impact of metallization conditions and the thickness of MoS 2 films on the reliability and other device metrics of MoS 2 -based memristors is carefully studied. The statistical electrical measurements show that the reliability can be improved to 92% for yield and improved by ≈16× for average DC cycling endurance in the devices by reducing the top electrode (TE) deposition rate and increasing the thickness of MoS 2 films. Intriguing convergence of switching voltages and resistance ratio is revealed by the statistical analysis of experimental switching cycles. An “effective switching layer” model compatible with both monolayer and few-layer MoS 2 , is proposed to understand the reliability improvement related to the optimization of fabrication configuration and the convergence of switching metrics. In conclusion, the Monte Carlo simulations help illustrate the underlying physics of endurance failure associated with cluster formation and provide additional insight into endurance improvement with device fabrication optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory testing methods to evaluate the reliability of occupancy sensors for commercial building applications

The energy performance of commercial buildings is greatly influenced by occupants which are highly variable and among the most unpredictable components of a building's operation. While most building control systems use fixed, predetermined occupancy schedules, these fixed occupancy levels can be quite different from actual occupancy. This can cause unnecessary energy consumption, particularly from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems which are responsible for approximately 60% of commercial buildings' energy use. The use of occupancy counting sensor systems integrated with building management system controls is one method that can be used to improve the energy-consuming performance of buildings. However, there is no standardized universal methodology and metrics to evaluate their reliability. The aim of this research is to develop a uniform evaluation methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy counting sensor systems in a controlled laboratory environment. The developed testing methodology includes both “typical” scenarios representing the occupancy scenarios of a typical commercial building, and “failure” testing scenarios which represent a range of potential scenarios that may impact a sensor system's reliability. These methods were then implemented in a case study to evaluate the performance of two novel occupancy counting sensor systems (i.e., door-centric, and camera-based). Results suggest that typical testing results can be used to compare the overall performance of the occupancy counting sensor systems; however, failure testing is also important to understand the weaknesses of the sensor system in order to select the suitable one for the intended use of the commercial building. In addition, the proposed methodology includes a modified confusion matrix which enables the ability to identify if failures are caused by over or under counting occupants and to what extent this occurs over the testing period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

From observation to replication: machine-learning-driven quantification and replication of fine-scale fish kinematics and behavior

Long-term quantification of fish behavior is essential for aquatic ecology, wildlife telemetry, and biomechanical device development. However, the observation duration required to obtain reliable behavioral and kinematic metrics remains unclear, and few tools exist to physically reproduce natural swimming motion for controlled experimentation. We address these challenges by developing a generalizable framework that models behavioral reliability (Spearman–Brown reliability index) as a function of observation duration and derives metric-specific monitoring thresholds. Using juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) as a case study, we demonstrate that the minimum duration needed for reliable estimates varies substantially across kinematic features: to exceed a reliability of 0.8, total distance traveled requires 12 days, average curvature (mm?¹) 15 days, tail-beat frequency (Hz) 8 days, and average speed (body length/s) 17 days. We further bridge digital analysis and physical testing by developing a hardware-in-the-loop simulator that reconstructs machine-learning-derived swimming kinematics with high fidelity (correlation coefficient 0.98–0.99, RMSE 1.22–1.27 mm over a 5-minute segment). This platform enables realistic, repeatable motion stimuli for evaluating aquatic sensing technologies and bio-integrated devices under controlled conditions. Together, these contributions provide a scalable approach for designing long-term behavioral studies and a data-driven connection between ecological observation and robotic experimentation.

Hwang, SungJoo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Rate of Penetration and Tripping Decision-Making using Real-Time Bit Wear Monitoring While Drilling Geothermal Wells

Understanding bit wear while drilling is critical to minimizing non-productive time (NPT) and optimizing rate of penetration (ROP). Lengthening drilling runs with damaged bits does not only lower the ROP, but also elevates the risk of inducing severe bit damage, which could potentially lead to time-consuming fishing operations. When drillers believe the bit has worn off substantially, the bit is tripped out to be replaced. On geothermal wells, tripping can take up to 20% of the overall well construction time, and this is generally acknowledged as an opportunity for improvement. Ideally, a bit run should be terminated before the bit is damaged beyond repair. At the same time, premature bit pulls are to be avoided as well. This study aims to leverage bit and tooth wear metrics that can be obtained in real time to characterize bit condition in order to optimize ROP and determine the optimal time to pull the bit. Two metrics were explored in this study: a bit wear metric that incorporated depth-of-cut, and a tooth wear metric developed by Bourgoyne & Young characterizing the state of bit teeth dull. Both metrics were computed using recorded data from 12¼ inches roller cone insert bit runs in five geothermal wells targeting a granodiorite formation in the western United States. Together with the actual dull grades, determined after the bits were pulled to surface, the metric trends were interpreted to characterize the downhole bit condition and identify the point at which the bit should have optimally been tripped out. The insights from studying the actual dull grades and how they relate to the two metrics were used to establish a reliable bit pull criterion. The bit wear metric trend correctly showed a noticeable departure from baseline for bits experiencing major dulling behavior. Additionally, the tooth wear model predicted the cutter dull within two dull grades for most runs, with better performance in predicting the inner teeth dull. Moreover, the combination of the bit wear and tooth wear metrics was effective in revealing the cause of the bit performance impairment. Proactive tracking of these two metrics in real-time can facilitate geothermal drilling ROP optimization and better-informed tripping decision-making, thereby avoiding wasted time and cost.

Ashari, Rahmat↗
DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyPVRPM: Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model in Python

The ability to perform accurate techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is essential for bankability and investment purposes. Most energy yield models assume an almost flawless operation (i.e., no failures); however, realistically, components fail and get repaired stochastically. This package, PyPVRPM, is a Python translation and improvement of the Language Kit (LK) based PhotoVoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM), which was first developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Goldsim software (Granata et al., 2011) (Miller et al., 2012). PyPVRPM allows the user to define a PV system at a specific location and incorporate failure, repair, and detection rates and distributions to calculate energy yield and other financial metrics such as the levelized cost of energy and net present value (Klise, Lavrova, et al., 2017). Our package is a simulation tool that uses NREL’s Python interface for System Advisor Model (SAM) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020b) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020a) to evaluate the performance of a PV plant throughout its lifetime by considering component reliability metrics. Besides the numerous benefits from migrating to Python (e.g., speed, libraries, batch analyses), it also expands on the failure and repair processes from the LK version by including the ability to vary monitoring strategies. These failures, repairs, and monitoring processes are based on user-defined distributions and values, enabling a more accurate and realistic representation of cost and availability throughout a PV system’s lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detecting defects that reduce breakdown voltage using machine learning and optical profilometry

Abstract Semiconductor wafer manufacturing relies on the precise control of various performance metrics to ensure the quality and reliability of integrated circuits. In particular, GaN has properties that are advantageous for high voltage and high frequency power devices; however, defects in the substrate growth and manufacturing are preventing vertical devices from performing optimally. This paper explores the application of machine learning techniques utilizing data obtained from optical profilometry as input variables to predict the probability of a wafer meeting performance metrics, specifically the breakdown voltage (V bk ). By incorporating machine learning techniques, it is possible to reliably predict performance metrics that cause devices to fail at low voltage. For diodes that fail at a higher (but still below theoretical) breakdown voltage, alternative inspection methods or a combination of several experimental techniques may be necessary.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Logarithmic Resilience Risk Metrics That Address the Huge Variations in Blackout Cost

Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the mean large blackout cost and the corresponding risk. These problems are caused by the heavy tail observed in the distribution of customer costs. To solve these problems, we propose resilience metrics that describe large blackout risk using the mean of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost blackouts, the slope index of the heavy tail, and the frequency of large-cost blackouts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Analytics for Interdependent Power and Water Distribution Systems

The occurrence of large-scale outages in power distribution systems (PDSs) caused, for instance, by extreme weather events has raised concerns on the cascading impact of the power outages on the resilience of other critical infrastructures, including water distribution systems (WDSs), whose healthy operation highly relies on the availability of power from PDSs. Here, this paper proposes an analytics model for quantifying the interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems. The proposed model first performs spatio-temporal outage analysis on the PDS and WDS to determine the PDS power serving capability and the resulting cascading impact on the WDS water serving capability during the occurrence of disruptions. The resilience interdependence is then determined by a proposed set of six metrics calculated using the power and water serving capability profiles, which trace and quantify the cascading impacts of power outages in the operation of WDSs during the degradation and recovery stages. The proposed analytics model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus power distribution system supplying power for pumping stations of a 15-node test WDS, considering multiple cases of water storage capacity, single and multiple outage scenarios, and availability of distributed generation. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed metrics track the temporal and spatial interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems, providing a mechanism to identify weak spots, and assess options to enhance the resilience of the critical water infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗