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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Nodal capacity expansion planning with flexible large-scale load siting

We propose explicitly incorporating large-scale load siting into a stochastic nodal power system capacity expansion planning model that concurrently co-optimizes generation, transmission, and storage expansion. The potential operational flexibility of some of these large loads is also taken into account by considering them as consisting of a set of tranches with different reliability requirements, which are modeled as a constraint on expected served energy across operational scenarios. We implement our model as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem with cross-scenario expectation constraints. To overcome the challenge of scalability, we build upon existing work to implement this model on a high performance computing platform and exploit scenario parallelization using an augmented Progressive Hedging Algorithm. The algorithm is implemented using the bounding features of mpisppy, which have shown to provide satisfactory provable optimality gaps despite the absence of theoretical guarantees of convergence. We test our approach and assess the value of this proactive planning framework on total system cost and reliability metrics using realistic testcases geographically assigned to San Diego and South Carolina, with datacenter and direct air capture facilities as large loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Achieving an 80% Renewable Portfolio in Alaska's Railbelt: Cost Analysis

This study examines the system-level costs and benefits of increased renewable energy deployment in the Railbelt grid, in the context of a proposed 80% renewable portfolio standard (RPS). This work studies the period from 2024 to 2040 and uses a model that simulates the planning, evolution, and operation of the power system to identify the mix of resources that maintains system reliability at the lowest electricity system cost over the period of analysis. The model tracks several reliability metrics, including the ability to serve demand during all hours of the year, even when normal power system failures occur. The model includes several measures (and associated costs) to address the variable output of renewable resources, including additional operating reserves, fuel storage, cycling of fossil plants, and additional equipment needed to maintain system stability. The Reference (least-cost) scenario results in substantial deployment of renewable energy and cost savings, reaching about 76% of Railbelt generation derived from renewables in 2040. Annual savings average about $105 M/year from 2030 to 2040. About 50% of this generation is from wind by 2040. Enforcing an 80% RPS results in about a 2% cumulative reduction in net savings. Demand is met in all scenarios, relying heavily on use of existing hydropower and fossil-fueled generators during periods of low renewable output. Meeting the increase in variability will require substantial changes in how the system is operated, with inverter-based resources providing nearly 100% of electricity during some periods.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Weather-Driven Resilience for Distribution Systems

With increasing billion dollar disasters due to weather events, it is of utmost priority for utility and grid operators to maintain and enhance the resilience of distribution grid. Traditionally, such analysis were conducted with reliability metrics alone. However, with increasing complexity of distribution grid and advancements in grid edge resources, evaluating grid resilience is challenging and involves multi-faceted analysis of the impact of weather events on the distribution grid. This presentation provides background, details, and future works in the field of weather-driven resilience for power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Planning for Seattle at the Convergence of Resilience and Energy

Grid reliability metrics obscure important temporal, spatial, and categorical considerations for increasing energy resilience. Systemwide or feeder-level outage metrics do not identify which kinds of services are affected by outages, where, and for how long. These outage metrics indicate the impacts of outages but cannot measure the consequences to customers that could result from those outages. The consequences of power outages for surrounding community members are caused by disruptions to electricity-dependent critical services, rather than to electricity itself. Power outages can decrease a community's access to healthcare, fuel, safe indoor temperatures, and provisions like food and water. This project developed critical service access, a new consequence-focused resilience metric that quantifies the relative access to critical services provided to households by distribution infrastructure during normal conditions and major disruptions. We use a spatially granular grid analysis that facilitates targeted resilience interventions; dividing feeders into isolatable sections and combining those sections with the critical service access metric allows us to identify where energy improvements like solar-plus-storage microgrids could create the most benefits for community members by protecting access to food, fuel, health, shelter, and public safety services. We identify locations in a South Seattle study area that could be high priorities for resilience investment and summarize their potential neighborhood-scale resilience benefits. This analysis was complemented by direct feedback from study area residents collect through a survey and focus groups. Results can help utilities understand how and where long power outages can create real consequences for customers, set strategic targets based on that understanding, and measure the potential benefits of energy resilience upgrades for more informed decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Reliability Model to Assess Reliability of Shuttle Derived Launch Vehicle and Next Generation Vehicles

One important thrust in NASA s space exploration vision is to improve the safety and reliability of future launch vehicles. A quantitative reliability model is an essential technical tool to evaluate launch vehicle reliability and to enhance launch vehicle configuration down selection and detailed designs. A quantitative reliability model that supports NASA's thrust has been developed and implemented in an MS Excel spreadsheet. The model addresses key reliability parameters, and provides for sensitivity analysis of various vehicle designs. This paper presents the specific elements of the model and examples of selected sensitivity analysis results. Reliability input parameters in the model include the following: 1. Main propulsion element failure probability; 2. Propulsion element catastrophic failure fraction (Cf). This is defined as the ratio of probability of uncontained failures over sum of probability of uncontained failures and contained failures); 3. Engine-out design vs. no-engine-out design; 4. Engine with redlines vs. no redlines; 5. Different levels of health management system implementation; 6. Launch Escape System (LES) reliability; and 7. Power level correlation with reliability. The sensitivity results will illustrate the impact of each of the above parameters on several reliability metrics: Loss of Mission (LOM), LOV (Loss of Vehicle) and Loss of Crew (LOC).

Huang, Zhao↗

Reliability-Based Control Design for Uncertain Systems

This paper presents a robust control design methodology for systems with probabilistic parametric uncertainty. Control design is carried out by solving a reliability-based multi-objective optimization problem where the probability of violating design requirements is minimized. Simultaneously, failure domains are optimally enlarged to enable global improvements in the closed-loop performance. To enable an efficient numerical implementation, a hybrid approach for estimating reliability metrics is developed. This approach, which integrates deterministic sampling and asymptotic approximations, greatly reduces the numerical burden associated with complex probabilistic computations without compromising the accuracy of the results. Examples using output-feedback and full-state feedback with state estimation are used to demonstrate the ideas proposed.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Identifying Climate-Smart Agriculture Research Needs

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach to help agricultural systems worldwide, concurrently addressing three challenge areas: increased adaptation to climate change, mitigation of climate change, and ensuring global food security - through innovative policies, practices, and financing. It involves a set of objectives and multiple transformative transitions for which there are newly identified knowledge gaps. We address these questions raised by CSA within three areas: conceptualization, implementation, and implications for policy and decision-makers. We also draw up scenarios on the future of the CSA concept in relation to the 4 per 1000 Initiative (Soils for Food Security and Climate) launched at UNFCCC 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21). Our analysis shows that there is still a need for further interdisciplinary research on the theoretical foundation of the CSA concept and on the necessary transformations of agriculture and land use systems. Contrasting views about implementation indicate that CSA focus on the ''triple win'' (adaptation, mitigation, food security) needs to be assessed in terms of science-based practices. CSA policy tools need to incorporate an integrated set of measures supported by reliable metrics. Environmental and social safeguards are necessary to make sure that CSA initiatives conform to the principles of sustainability, both at the agriculture and food system levels.

mitigation↗

The Arctic Sea Ice Cover of 2016: A Year of Record-Low Highs and High-Than-Expected Lows

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness†of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/ dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New Arctic", sea ice regime.

sea ice↗

PCB Quality Metrics that Drive Reliability

Risk-based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process that defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2021 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed-wiring-board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed-wiring-board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends are then matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk-based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies that promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.

Printed circuit boards↗

PCB Quality Metrics that Drive Reliability (PD 18)

Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2019 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.

Sood, Bhanu↗

Using software metrics and software reliability models to attain acceptable quality software for flight and ground support software for avionic systems

This paper is concerned with methods of measuring and developing quality software. Reliable flight and ground support software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. Reliability is probably the most important of the characteristics inherent in the concept of 'software quality'. It is the probability of failure free operation of a computer program for a specified time and environment.

Lawrence, Stella↗

Near Term Reliability and Resilience: Revisiting Resilience Metrics for the Electric Grid

This report presents the metrics employed in the Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) project to study the inter-dependencies between electric and natural gas infrastructures, particularly under challenging conditions. These metrics were developed and applied to evaluate the reliability and resilience of the electric grid and natural gas systems in near-term scenarios (within the next 10 years) involving extreme weather events and major supply disruptions. The report defines the metrics, explains how they are calculated, and describes the process by which they are used to evaluate reliability and resilience across simulated scenarios. It also demonstrates how the resilience metrics integrate with other project activities and summarizes the software tools deployed to calculate and visualize the results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Software development predictors, error analysis, reliability models and software metric analysis

The use of dynamic characteristics as predictors for software development was studied. It was found that there are some significant factors that could be useful as predictors. From a study on software errors and complexity, it was shown that meaningful results can be obtained which allow insight into software traits and the environment in which it is developed. Reliability models were studied. The research included the field of program testing because the validity of some reliability models depends on the answers to some unanswered questions about testing. In studying software metrics, data collected from seven software engineering laboratory (FORTRAN) projects were examined and three effort reporting accuracy checks were applied to demonstrate the need to validate a data base. Results are discussed.

Basili, Victor↗

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Determining Component Probability using Problem Report Data for Ground Systems used in Manned Space Flight

During the shuttle era NASA utilized a failure reporting system called the Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) it purpose was to identify and track system non-conformance. The PRACA system over the years evolved from a relatively nominal way to identify system problems to a very complex tracking and report generating data base. The PRACA system became the primary method to categorize any and all anomalies from corrosion to catastrophic failure. The systems documented in the PRACA system range from flight hardware to ground or facility support equipment. While the PRACA system is complex, it does possess all the failure modes, times of occurrence, length of system delay, parts repaired or replaced, and corrective action performed. The difficulty is mining the data then to utilize that data in order to estimate component, Line Replaceable Unit (LRU), and system reliability analysis metrics. In this paper, we identify a methodology to categorize qualitative data from the ground system PRACA data base for common ground or facility support equipment. Then utilizing a heuristic developed for review of the PRACA data determine what reports identify a credible failure. These data are the used to determine inter-arrival times to perform an estimation of a metric for repairable component-or LRU reliability. This analysis is used to determine failure modes of the equipment, determine the probability of the component failure mode, and support various quantitative differing techniques for performing repairable system analysis. The result is that an effective and concise estimate of components used in manned space flight operations. The advantage is the components or LRU's are evaluated in the same environment and condition that occurs during the launch process.

Monaghan, Mark W.↗

Long Term Performance Metrics of the GD SDR on the SCaN Testbed: The First Year on the ISS

The General Dynamics (GD) S-Band software defined radio (SDR) in the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed on the International Space Station (ISS) provides experimenters an opportunity to develop and demonstrate experimental waveforms in space. The SCaN Testbed was installed on the ISS in August of 2012. After installation, the initial checkout and commissioning phases were completed and experimental operations commenced. One goal of the SCaN Testbed is to collect long term performance metrics for SDRs operating in space in order to demonstrate long term reliability. These metrics include the time the SDR powered on, the time the power amplifier (PA) is powered on, temperature trends, error detection and correction (EDAC) behavior, and waveform operational usage time. This paper describes the performance of the GD SDR over the first year of operations on the ISS.

radio telemetry↗